New Year's Eve Reflection and Wrap-Up of this Blog's First Six Months

New Year's Eve Reflection and Wrap-Up of this Blog's First Six Months

At the time that this post comes out (8pm EST on 12/31/2020), some of you may already be in the new year, 1 hour of 2020 remains in the Eastern United States and Canada, and only 4 hours where I am currently situated (Fresno, CA). I can't believe that almost half of a year has passed ever since I started this blog, and want to take today's post to briefly reflect on the first 6 months, highlight some of this blog's posts from this past year, and inform you all of two major changes to this blog coming after the New Year. 

In early May of 2020, as my graduate education was coming to an end, I was out for a walk around the (closed) UMD campus, and had a sudden idea of something I could start upon finishing graduate school so that I could continue my passion for writing about politics and public policy. That epiphany became this blog, which I started two weeks into my post-educational life, continues to this moment, and will continue for the foreseeable future. In a dynamic, uncertain, and unprecedented year, this blog is something I am very proud of, as it has not only continued to solidify my interest in talking about politics and public policy, but has also allowed me to contribute to the larger community of people interested in the same topics. Finally, the content published here adds to the cornucopia of knowledge and information about politics and public policy topics, and thus helps all of us better understand American public policy and politics. 

A Look Back: Some of 2020's Highlights:

• Introduction (6/10/2020): This is where it all started. 
• The 2020 House Primaries: Current Situation and Possible Futures (6/21/2020): The first post containing content made specifically for this blog, and one that would have multiple follow-up posts.
• Examining 116th House Member-District Age Gaps (6/28/2020): While I was not able to do multi-OLS regression, this piece was my first work using statistical regression in a while.  
• Was 2016 a Hillary Decline or Trump Surge? Examining Voting Trends (7/8/2020): The idea for this post came from seeing a meme derived from a movie I grew up with, and still love to this day. 
• Comparing the CARES Act with the HEROES and HEALS Acts (8/5/2020): I find this blog piece to be unique because of the simple comparison chart I made contrasting the previously-enacted and proposed legislation. 
• The Counting of CA-7 and CA-16 2014's Votes: Two Foreboding Examples of the "Blue Shift" Effect? (8/27/2020): The first time I discussed my personal experiences as part of a blog post, something I normally don't do here. 
• The San Joaquin Valley Electoral Politics Project, Part 1: 2010-2018 Gubernatorial Results (8/30/2020): The starting point for a project within this blog that has five parts as of now, and potential for more. 
• 145 Hours to Federal Fiscal Year 2021: Historical Shutdowns and the Current Legislative Situation (9/24/2020): My first dive into fiscal policy, and one of the few posts that I came up with based on recent current events. 
• Common Policy-Related Themes between The Other Wes Moore and Hillbilly Elegy (10/11/2020): This post was fun to make, as I stitched together a literature review on common themes from two books written by two authors who grew up around the same time and faced similar but disparate life journeys. 
• Democratic House Freshmen (and one longtime member) with Competitive Re-Election Bids to Watch (11/1/2020): As the last election-related post before Election Day, I covered several House Democrats facing difficult re-election bids, and never thought 5 of the 6 (and possibly the 6th, depending on what happens in NY-22) would lose on Election Day. 
• The 2020 Federal Elections: What Happened? (11/8/2020): The first in a series of post-2020 election content that summarized the overall trends that happened on Election Day. 
• Senators Remaining in 2021 from the 2009 ACA vote (11/22/2020): This is another blog post that was fun to create because tabulating where 2009's Senators are now (still in Congress or not) come 2021 revealed huge insight into how much the Senate has changed in just 11 years. 
• Notable Longtime County Voting Streaks that Ended in 2020 (12/10/2020): Like the two post-election bellwether assessments, this post had been on the production line since Election Day. However, unlike the others, I had to await full election results from all states to finally compile and publish it. 
• 20 from 2020: America's Weirdest Write-in Votes (12/21/2020): In the least formal and serious post I have made so far, I examined 20 of the weirdest write-in votes from across America and added some personal comments to each. 
• 9 Days to Georgia (Senate Runoffs): The Current Situation and Where to Watch on Runoff Night (12/27/2020): The last regular post the year covers (arguably) the two most critical elections of the year, the dual  Georgia Senate runoffs, which could tilt Senate control to either of the two parties. 

The fifteen posts listed above represent a fraction of all the content I produced this year, yet they reveal how this blog was launched, how it has evolved, and the overall format, direction, and style I have given it over time. 

2020 Wrap-Up:

Something I want to remind everyone about is that I am open to, and appreciate any constructive criticism about this blog. If you would like to give advice or constructive criticism, feel free to leave a comment at the bottom of any of the posts, or if you want to remain publicly-anonymous, send an email via the Contact Form at the bottom of every blog post. Furthermore, even if you don't have advice or constructive criticism, but want to further discuss or talk about content presented on my blog, feel free to start a comment chain on a post as well! I recently tested both features, and can confirm to you that they both work! You can also comment on my public Twitter feed, this blog's Facebook page, or my LinkedIn profile, where I communicate every blog article publicly, and post other policy- and politics-related content (e.g. maps and news articles). 

Sometime in early 2021, one major change will be taking place on this blog. After doing research and thinking very deeply into this topic, I will be signing up this blog for Google's AdSense program to help support my personal expenses (i.e. monetization). At the moment, this blog is not monetized, but once I am on the program, I will be open to you all about this change.

With this decision in mind, there are several things I want to make clear. First, you will still be able to read my blog without (directly) paying a subscription fee or similar. Second, I will continue to create content regardless of how much money I receive from this blog, as passion is what drives me to produce content here. Once I set up monetization, I will re-post this information on a separate post addressing it, but I want to inform you all about this upcoming change now. 

Finally, there will not be a regular post this coming Sunday, January 3rd, 2021, or next Thursday, January 7, 2021, so that I can catch up on stuff in my personal life (i.e. my ongoing job search) and prepare future content for this blog. The blog will resume with its first regular 2021 post on Sunday, January 10th, 2021. See you all then, and have a Happy New Year! 

Image Source: St. John, James. "File:Fireworks (3 July 2018) (Newark, Ohio, USA) 1 (41411600690).jpg." Wikimedia Commons, 3 Jul. 2018, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fireworks_(3_July_2018)_(Newark,_Ohio,_USA)_1_(41411600690).jpg. Accessed 31 Dec. 2020. 

Original photo licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic License. No changes were made to the image. 

9 Days to Georgia (Senate Runoffs): The Current Situation and Where to Watch on Runoff Night

Author's Notes: In observance of New Year's Day, there will not be a regular post coming out this coming Thursday, December 31st. Instead, there will be a special end-of-year post that will reflect on this blog's first six months, and lay out an important change for 2021. Tune in then to learn more! 

CORRECTION: The title of the post was originally "10 Days to Georgia..." I realized that it is actually 9 days from when this post was published, which is now corrected. The URL is still the same after the correction. 

20 from 2020: America's Weirdest Write-in Votes

Author's Notes: This post was originally supposed to come out on December 20th, 2020, but I pushed it up a day to revise and improve it from the original version. This publication date change will not be permanent, as next week's post will resume the normal schedule. 

In observance of the Winter Holiday season, there will not be a blog post coming this coming Thursday, December 24th. Hope you all have a safe, healthy, and happy holiday season wherever you live, and regardless of what holidays you observe! The next, and last regular post of the year will come out next Sunday, December 27th. 

Assessing 2020's Electoral Bellwethers Part 2: Presidential Counties

Assessing 2020's Electoral Bellwethers Part 2: Presidential Counties

Introduction: This post sat on the backburner since before November 4th to await full election results, which are now finalized in the form of this year's Electoral College.  With that in mind, it is time to determine and analyze what trends the results from this blog's nine bellwether counties revealed about the presidential election. The link to the original post identifying the bellwethers is below. 

Pre-Election Description of Chosen Presidential Bellwether Counties

Link to post-election bellwether assessment Part 1: Congressional Races

Table 1: 2020 Presidential Bellwether Counties Recent Electoral History

Note: Each number represents the percentage difference between the winning candidate and losing candidate in each county. 2020, 2016, 2012, and 2008 numbers are from the presidential election from each respective year. As 2018 was a midterm election year, there are no presidential results available. For the counties from states with Senate elections (AZ, FL, OH, PA, TX, WI), I utilized the results from that state's Senate election. Since GA and IA did not have Senate elections in 2018, I utilized both states' 2018 gubernatorial election results. Finally, since North Carolina did not have a Senate or Gubernatorial election in 2018, I utilized the NC-9 result (which was subsequently thrown-out and a new election was held). 

Election Results Sources: CNN (2018 and 2020); The New York Times (2016 and 2014); David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (2012 and 2008); all links are below. 

The Bellwethers:

    Arizona-Maricopa County (Will Sun Belt Hispanic voters turn out for Biden?):

Image Source: Sumiaz. "File:Map of Arizona highlighting Maricopa County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, last modified 28 Feb. 2015, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Arizona_highlighting_Maricopa_County.svg. Accessed 14 Dec. 2020. 

    Mixed. In Arizona and Maricopa County, turnout was critical despite declining margins. 

     As detailed previously, this year saw a notable Democratic Latino voting slump compared to 2016, with the exact size of the decline being variable. In particular, Texas's Rio Grande Valley and Florida saw significant Latino swings towards Trump, both of which have been covered in previous posts. As has been, and will likely be repeated on this blog, a likely reason for this trend: many Latino voters identifying more as White and working-class voters, and thus being open to Republican policy ideas (and opposed to progressive Democratic ideas impacting their workforce), reduced Democratic outreach towards that group, and Trump downplaying immigration-related rhetoric during this election cycle (Caputo). Heavily-Latino Nevada also saw a closer result than expected, partially due to Biden underperforming among that group there (Mueller and Strott). 

     In Arizona specifically, post-election analysis has indicated that Latino turnout increased this year relative to 2016, especially among young Latinos, and that this group may have been critical for Biden's narrow victory in the Grand Canyon State (Summers). In the lead-up to Election Day, Latino voter groups worked hard to get Latino voters to the polls, especially those who were eligible to vote but previously didn't (Galka; "In Battleground"). Despite these factors and Biden's win in both Maricopa County and Arizona, Trump performed well in majority-Latino parts of the state such as urban Phoenix's AZ-9 district (Bronner). 

    Florida-Miami-Dade County (How will the Cuban-American population vote this year?):

Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Florida highlighting Miami-Dade County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 14 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Florida_highlighting_Miami-Dade_County.svg. Accessed 14 Dec. 2020. 

     

     Very Republican. 

     I'm not going to elaborate further, since this theme is a broken record at this point, and because Part 1 goes into depth about this trend. 

    Georgia-Fayette County (How much improvement room do Democrats have in traditionally-heavy Republican Sun Belt suburbs?): 

Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Georgia highlighting Fayette County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Georgia_highlighting_Fayette_County.svg. Accessed 14 Dec. 2020. 

     A lot of improvement room, although it won't all come overnight, and at a lower speed downballot. 

     As the votes were counted, many of the traditionally-red Sun Belt suburbs that trended Democratic but still voted Republican in 2016 and/or 2018 shifted colors on the national map. As detailed in last week's post, a group of Sun Belt suburban counties flipped from red to blue and broke longtime Republican voting streaks this year, including Arizona's Maricopa County (Phoenix), Texas's Tarrant County (Forth Worth), Florida's Duval County (Jacksonville), and Virginia Beach City. President-elect Joe Biden (D) also significantly improved over Hillary Clinton's 2016 performance in another bloc of similar suburban counties that still voted Republican this time. These places included Cabarrus, North Carolina (exurban Charlotte), Douglas, Colorado (suburban and exurban Denver), Oklahoma, Oklahoma (Oklahoma City), Williamson, Tennessee (suburban Nashville), Collin and Denton, Texas in the DFW metroplex, Madison, Alabama (Huntsville), and the county of focus here, Fayette, Georgia. 

    Per Table 1 above, Fayette County's shift from being solidly-red to light-red has been rapid in the Trump era, with the county voting for Trump by less than 10% after it voted for Governor Brian Kemp (R) two years ago by double digits, and Trump by a similar margin four years ago. The reduced margin here was likely a critical factor in aiding Biden's narrow victory in the Peachtree State, where the Atlanta suburbs swung left for the second cycle in a row. These results seem to indicate that at the top-level, traditional Republican strength in major Sun Belt suburban areas such as Fayette are dwindling, especially with Trump at the party's helm. 

     While the top-level Republican plunge in once-reliability red Sun Belt suburbs such as Fayette were unprecedented, downballot results tell a different story, especially one that indicates that Democrats' gains in such places are not equal at all levels, or are not happening all at once. As noted in previous posts, this year saw a significant amount of Biden/downballot Republican split-ticket voting in Sun Belt suburbs, which led to underwhelming results for Democrats in key House and Senate races. While Georgia's Senate races will be resolved by runoffs in two weeks, the first round (e.g. Election Day) results show Regular Senate Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff running behind Biden in Atlanta's suburban counties including Fayette (Hallerman). Meanwhile, Democrat Cal Cunningham underperformed Biden in North Carolina's major suburbs, likely helping Sen. Thom Tillis (R) secure another term (Kondik and Sabato). In Texas, Senator John Cornyn (R) won another term while running ahead of Trump in Texas's major suburban and urban counties ("Texas Election"). Finally, other than GA-7 in the Atlanta suburbs and two safe blue North Carolina seats that were the result of redistricting, Democratic dreams to pick up more suburban Sun Belt House seats fell through, ranging from AZ-6 in the Phoenix suburbs, to CA-25 in the Antelope Valley, TX-24 around the DFW Airport, TX-22 outside Houston, NC-8 in exurban Charlotte, and CA-50 in San Diego's outer suburbs. These failures were compounded by the defeats of multiple suburban first-year Democrats in the Sun Belt, including Reps. Harley Rouda (CA-48) and Gil Cisneros (CA-39) in Orange County, Rep. Joe Cunningham (SC-1) in suburban Charleston, and Rep. Kendra Horn (OK-5) in Oklahoma City. Furthermore, several other incumbents in similar districts had narrow re-elections, including Rep. Abigail Spanberger in VA-7 (Richmond suburbs), Rep. Lizzie Fletcher in TX-7 (suburban Houston), Rep. Mike Levin in CA-49 (Northern San Diego County), and Rep. Susie Lee in NV-3 (suburban Las Vegas). 

    Iowa-Cerro Gordo County (Will historically-Democratic Trump-won Upper Midwest small-city counties remain Republican?):

Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Iowa highlighting Cerro Gordo County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Iowa_highlighting_Cerro_Gordo_County.svg. Accessed 14 Dec. 2020. 

     

     Overall, yes. 

     Despite Democratic hopes that the once-blue rural and small-city Upper Midwest (including Iowa) would swing back and repudiate Trump, Cerro Gordo and other similar counties in the region remained red. Iowa voted for Trump by a similar margin as in 2016, while other rural parts of the Upper Midwest refused to budge after Trump's significant 2016 gains, or only slightly moved back towards the blue. Cerro Gordo County was one of these places, voting for Trump by 6%, 1% less than his 2016 margin. 

     Aside from Cerro Gordo, other once-Democratic small city counties in the Midwest that voted for Trump twice include Kenosha (Kenosha) and Racine, Wisconsin (Racine), Des Moines, Iowa (Burlington), Dubuque, Iowa (Dubuque), Clinton, Iowa (Clinton), and Mower, Minnesota (Austin), illustrating the extent to which Trump's gains here may have been permanent. A significant exit poll result that may explain why non-urban voters in Iowa (and by the extension, the Upper Midwest) stayed with Trump despite the trade war impacting their region: Over half of Iowa voters had a favorable view of the economy ("Iowa 2020 Presidential"), which can be used as a proxy for economic policy in the modern age (Kim). Out of those 51% of Iowa's voters, an overwhelming number voted for Trump, while 30% of those who thought the economy was "Not so good" also went for the ex-businessman, compared to 17% of those who thought the economy was "Good" ("Iowa 2020 Presidential"). 

    North Carolina-Robeson County (Will Southern rural nonwhite voters turn out for Biden?): 

Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of North Carolina highlighting Robeson County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_North_Carolina_highlighting_Robeson_County.svg. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

     Generally somewhat-to yes nationwide, but quite the opposite here.  

     As part of his victory in North Carolina four years ago, Trump won majority-nonwhite Robeson County for the first time in years, which contains a sizable number of Lumbee Native Americans. During the 2020 general election season, both Trump and Biden worked to court Native voters here, especially with both expressing support for the tribe's quest to become federally-recognized (Carter). Yet, as the results came in on Election Night, Robeson County didn't just vote for Trump again, but voted for him by a larger percentage margin than even Barack Obama's 2008 victory here (see Table 1). 

     In other parts of the country, rural nonwhite voting groups generally turned out for Biden with some exceptions, especially the previously-discussed case of Rio Grande Valley Latinos (Caputo). As I already discussed that group earlier under "Maricopa County," I won't discuss that group a second time. Outside North Carolina, one group that turned out heavily for Biden in the south and west were Native American voters, whose nations have been hit hard by COVID (Noisecat; Smith). In particular, Navajo Nation turnout increase significantly compared with 2016, and these voters overwhelmingly went for the Biden/Harris ticket, which may have been critical in helping the Democratic ticket win Arizona (Fonseca and Kastanis). I was not able to find much discussion talking specifically about Southern "Black Belt" turnout, but doing a simple comparison of 2020's and 2016's raw election results from majority-Black rural Southern counties show that Biden's margins in such places either were a wash or lower relative to 2016. One notable place highlighted by The Guardian where this occurred is North Carolina's Northampton County, a majority-Black rural county where Biden's margin declined 5% from Clinton's (Davis). 

    Ohio-Portage County (Can Biden successfully replicate the Obama coalition?):

Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Ohio highlighting Portage County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Ohio_highlighting_Portage_County.svg. Accessed 15 Dec. 2020. 

    Overall, no, especially locales with socially-conservative, economically-populist blue-collar voters. 

    Despite pre-election analysis and polling showing Biden performing better than Clinton among blue-collar and middle-class voters in the Midwest and Rust Belt (Feiner; Siders), these predictions did not come true on November 3rd. Many blue-collar and working/middle-class "Obama coalition" Middle America counties remained red or even swung away from Biden. Portage was one of them, having moved 3% more Republican compared to 2016 (Table 1). As detailed in last Sunday's post on notable county flips, neighboring Mahoning County and Lorain County on the opposite end of Metro Cleveland flipped red after narrowly voting for Hillary Clinton four years ago. Neither had voted Republican in a long time (Orner), showing the extent of Trump's gains in the region and its voters. In 2008 and 2012, Obama won all three counties, in addition to performing well in the blue-collar, heavily-unionized Midwest and Rust Belt ("2012 Presidential General," "2008 Presidential General"). But the one Rust Belt county that best encapsulates this trend is neighboring Michigan's Macomb County, a largely White blue-collar and middle-class suburban county next to Detroit that is well-known in the political science community for pollster Stan Greenberg's classic research on Macomb's "Reagan Democrats" ("Long-time"). These same voters likely helped Trump flip both Macomb County and Michigan red four years ago, as his economic populism heavily resonated in the area (Feiner). This year, Macomb County stuck with Trump, while neighboring Oakland County, which is increasingly diverse, became more blue (Dulio and Klemanski; Neher and Roth). 

     While I was not able to find the original Tweet, or another credible source to back up this theory, a post-election Tweet I saw several weeks ago speculated that blue-collar locales with historically-Democratic, but heavily-religious social conservatives swung back less than working-class locales with more secular voters. This will be discussed further in Lackawanna's entry below, which has a similar story to Portage. 

    Pennsylvania-Lackawanna County (After almost voting for Trump, will historically-Democratic blue-collar medium-sized cities swing back to Biden?): 

Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Pennsylvania highlighting Lackawanna County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Pennsylvania_highlighting_Lackawanna_County.svg. Accessed 15 Dec. 2020. 

     Somewhat, but not back to Obama 2012 levels, much less Obama 2008. 

     As part of flipping back the Keystone State, Joe Biden slightly improved the Democratic margin in Lackawanna County, home to his birthplace of Scranton (Davis). However, as Table 1 shows, Biden's margin there did not come anywhere close to Obama's 2012 showing, Governor Tom Wolf's margin in the 2014 "Red Wave," or Senator Bob Casey (D)'s reelection performance in 2018. Other similar historically-Democratic blue-collar and industrial locales that voted for Obama, Trump and Biden include Erie (Erie) and Northampton (Bethlehem) Counties, also in Pennsylvania, Blue Earth, MN (Mankato), Montgomery, OH (Dayton), Broome, NY (Binghamton), Saginaw, MI (Saginaw), Gloucester, NJ (suburban and exurban Philadelphia), and Rensselaer, NY (across from Albany). Despite Biden's flipping of these locales, most featured close margins, showing the limitations of Biden's blue-collar support relative to pre-election expectations. 

    Texas-Tarrant County (Will any counties with over 1 million people vote for Trump?):

Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Texas highlighting Tarrant County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Texas_highlighting_Tarrant_County.svg. Accessed 15 Dec. 2020. 

     After initially creating this question, I realized that New York's Suffolk County was probably in theory a better bellwether for this trend, considering how Republican it leans compared to the nation, but as New York is not a battleground (any more), Tarrant made the cut. 

     Out all U.S. counties with over a million people ("Large counties"), only one voted for Trump this year, Long Island's Suffolk County, which voted for Trump by less than 200 votes ("Presidential Election" 2020). Compared with 2016, Maricopa, Arizona and Tarrant, Texas flipped blue ("Presidential Election" 2020), leaving Suffolk, Collin and Denton Counties in the DFW Metroplex, and California's Kern County (Bakersfield) as the only counties with at least 800,000 people that voted for Trump ("Large counties," "Presidential Election" 2020). 

    Wisconsin-Milwaukee County (Will the 2020 urban Black vote look like 2016 or 2012/2008?): 

Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Wisconsin highlighting Milwaukee County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 13 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Wisconsin_highlighting_Milwaukee_County.svg. Accessed 15 Dec. 2020. 

    More like 2016 than 2012/2008, possibly lower. 

    This year, Joe Biden narrowly won back Wisconsin after Trump's historic 2016 victory there, which is partially attributable (among other factors) to a decline in the urban Black vote in Milwaukee County, which hurt Hillary Clinton (Sommerhauser). Compared with 2016, Biden's net margin in Milwaukee County increased by around 20,000 votes, although neither Biden or Trump matched Obama's or Romney's raw vote share, respectively ("2012 Presidential General"). This small net increase alone seems to show that urban Black turnout likely did not reach 2012 or 2008 levels, and may have even decreased, something that is backed up by external analysis of Milwaukee voting precincts (Otterbein; van Wagtendonk). 

     In other Rust Belt, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic urban centers, urban Black turnout saw a similar story, with Biden regressing relative to 2016 to varying extents. In the swing-state urban centers of Detroit (Michigan) and Philadelphia (Pennsylvania), Biden performed well, but did not match Obama 2012's numbers, while Trump also significantly improved over his 2016 performance (Otterbein). Explanations that have been put forward for this decline include 1) Reduced outreach by the Biden campaign towards urban minorities, 2) Minorites' religious inclinations towards Republican religious identity, 3) Feelings among many that voting wouldn't improve local issues and conditions (Brennan et al.), 4) Minority support for Republican economic ideas, 5) Opposition to progressive Democratic talk of "Defund the Police" among urban minority communities, and 6) Trump's messages in general resonating with many working-class minorities (Caputo). 

Election Sources:

"2008 Presidential General Election Results." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

"2012 Presidential General Election Results." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 15 Dec. 2020. 

"2016 Presidential Election Results." The New York Times, last modified 9 Aug. 2017, www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

"Governor Election Results 2014." The New York Times, last modified 17 Dec. 2014, www.nytimes.com/elections/2014/results/governor?utm_source=top_nav&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=election-2014. Accessed 11 Dec. 2020. 

"National Results." CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2018/results. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

• 2018 Election Results

"Presidential Election Results and Electoral Map 2020." CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

"Senate Election Results 2014." The New York Times last modified 17 Dec. 2014, www.nytimes.com/elections/2014/results/senate?utm_source=top_nav&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=election-2014. Accessed 11 Dec. 2020. 

Works Cited:

Barry, Kevin. "Speaking about the hardships in a changing world leads the way for Portage County voters." ABC5 News Cleveland, 12 Mar. 2020, www.news5cleveland.com/news/political/elections-local/speaking-about-the-hardships-in-a-changing-world-leads-the-way-for-portage-county-voters. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

Brennan, Chris, et al. "Philly was supposed to turn out huge for Biden. It didn’t. What happened?" The Philadelphia Inquirer, 15 Nov. 2020, www.inquirer.com/politics/election/philadelphia-2020-election-turnout-biden-trump-20201115.html. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

Bronner, Laura, Geoffrey Skelley, and Amelia Thoson-DeVeaux. "What We Know About How White and Latino Americans Voted In 2020." FiveThirtyEight, 23 Nov. 2020, fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-know-about-how-white-and-latino-americans-voted-in-2020/. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

Caputo, Marc. "Culture wars fuel Trump’s blue-collar Latino gains." Politico, 21 Nov. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/11/21/culture-wars-latinos-trump-438932. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

Carter, Andrew. "Urban and rural NC were already divided. The 2020 election pushed them farther apart." Charlotte News and Observer, 7 Nov. 2020, www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article246983722.html. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

Coleman, J. Miles, and Kyle Kondik. "Notes on the State of the 2020 Election." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 12 Nov. 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-the-2020-election/. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

Davis, Ben. "The 10 swing state counties that tell the story of the 2020 election." The Guardian, 24 Nov. 2020, www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/24/the-10-swing-state-counties-that-tell-the-story-of-the-2020-election. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

Dulio, David A., and John Klemanski. "Opinion: Election recap: How Macomb and Oakland counties are shifting." The Detroit News, 19 Nov. 2020, www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2020/11/20/opinion-election-recap-how-macomb-and-oakland-counties-shifting/3777544001/. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020.

Feiner, Lauren. "Michigan’s Macomb County is a crucial blue-collar battleground for Trump and Biden." CNBC, 14 Oct. 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/10/14/2020-election-michigan-macomb-county-trump-biden.html. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

Fonseca, Felicia, and Angeliki Kastanis. "Native American votes helped secure Biden’s win in Arizona." Associated Press, 19 Nov. 2020, apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-flagstaff-arizona-voting-rights-fa452fbd546fa00535679d78ac40b890. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

Galka, Matt. "How the Latino vote shifted historically red Arizona to blue." Fox 10 Phoenix, 4 Nov. 2020, www.fox10phoenix.com/news/how-the-latino-vote-shifted-historically-red-arizona-to-blue. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

Hallerman, Tamar. "Split-ticket voters helped Biden win Ga. Can they aid the GOP in the runoffs?" Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 16 Dec. 2020, www.ajc.com/politics/split-ticket-voters-helped-biden-win-ga-can-they-aid-the-gop-in-the-runoffs/NQO7Z7MAVJFHLIUOAIRONWO3H4/. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

"In Battleground Arizona, Latino Effort to Mobilize Voters Could Help Biden." US News and World Report, 3 Nov. 2020, www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2020-11-03/big-push-under-way-for-latino-turnout-in-battleground-arizona. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

"Iowa 2020 President Exit Polls." CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/iowa. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

Kim, Anne. "New Poll: Trade was a top issue for many 2020 voters." tradevistas, 19 Nov. 2020, tradevistas.org/new-poll-trade-top-issue-for-many-2020-voters/. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

"Large counties in the United States by population." Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Large_counties_in_the_United_States_by_population. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

"Long-time Democratic pollster takes another look at the Obama-Trump voters of Macomb County." Michigan Radio, 17 May 2018, www.michiganradio.org/post/long-time-democratic-pollster-takes-another-look-obama-trump-voters-macomb-county. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

Mueller, Tabitha, and Savanna Scott. "Polls show how Latino voters helped drive Biden win in Nevada, though Trump gained ground since 2016." The Nevada Independent, 16 Nov. 2020, thenevadaindependent.com/article/polls-show-how-latino-voters-helped-drive-biden-win-in-nevada-though-trump-gained-ground-since-2016. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

Neher, Jake, and Cheyna Roth. "Oakland and Macomb Counties Demonstrate How Divided Michigan Voters Are Becoming." WDET 101.9 fm, wdet.org/posts/2020/11/16/90296-oakland-and-macomb-counties-demonstrate-how-divided-michigan-voters-are-becoming/. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

Noisecat, Julia Brave. "In Trump v. Biden, Native American voters played a crucial role. It's time to recognize that." NBC News, 27 Nov. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-v-biden-native-american-voters-played-crucial-role-it-ncna1249005. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

Orner, Ben. "Interactive: Explore the Ohio counties Trump and Biden flipped." NBC4i, 10 Nov. 2020, www.nbc4i.com/news/your-local-election-hq/interactive-explore-the-ohio-counties-trump-and-biden-flipped/. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

Otterbein, Holly. "Why Biden didn’t do better in big cities." Politico, 15 Nov. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/11/15/big-cities-biden-election-436529. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

Siders, David. "‘It’s a big, big swing’: Trump loses ground with white voters." Politico, 21 Sept. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/09/21/trump-white-voters-support-418420. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Smith, Anna. "How Indigenous voters swung the 2020 election." HighCountry News, 6 Nov. 2020, www.hcn.org/articles/indigenous-affairs-how-indigenous-voters-swung-the-2020-election. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

Sommerhauser, Mark. "Study: Black voter turnout in Wisconsin declined by nearly one-fifth in 2016." Wisconsin State-Journal, 7 Nov. 2017, madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/study-black-voter-turnout-in-wisconsin-declined-by-nearly-one-fifth-in-2016/article_d3e72e41-96a0-51fb-83ba-11dfc6693daf.html. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

Summers, Juana. "Why Joe Biden Saw Mixed Success With Latinos." National Public Radio, 5 Nov. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/11/05/931378189/what-we-know-about-the-latino-vote-in-some-key-states. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

"Texas Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, 29 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/texas. Accessed 17 Dec. 2020. 

van Wagtendonk, Anya. "‘Proud of my city’: Turnout down, but Milwaukee’s Black voters leapt hurdles to vote." The Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism, 11 Nov. 2020, www.wisconsinwatch.org/2020/11/milwaukee-black-voters-presidential-election-2020/. Accessed 16 Dec. 2020. 

Four Public Policy Implications from The Other Wes Moore and Hillbilly Elegy

Four Public Policy Implications from The Other Wes Moore and Hillbilly Elegy

Introduction: After several weeks of election-related coverage, I'm finally ready to go back to The Other Wes Moore and Hillbilly Elegy, two books I initially covered in October. That initial post synthesized several common policy themes between the two books, some of which will be reiterated in today's post. With those themes in mind, today's post will go over several significant policy implications I found when reading both books, especially relating to social and economic policy. 

Social Policy Implications:

• Ensuring all teenagers can finish high school is just as important as emphasizing college enrollment: Between Hillbilly Elegy and The Other Wes Moore, while both respective authors ended up attending college and becoming successful, both note instances of classmates and subjects who didn't finish high school, or came close to not. In Hillbilly Elegy, the chaotic family situation facing J.D. Vance led his academic performance to suffer in his first two years of high school, which almost led him to drop out (Vance 127-130; 151; 155). At the end of Hillbilly Elegy, Vance talked with teachers from his hometown, who expressed concern over society's heavy focus on college, noting that many students come from backgrounds unable to complete college, and need critical interventions much earlier in life (Vance 244-245). Meanwhile, in The Other Wes Moore, the other Wes Moore and his brother Tony became school dropouts early, turning to a life on the streets of Baltimore (Moore 56-59). Even when he returned to school after an incident that got him locked up briefly, his stint at school was short, and he returned to the streets (Moore, 109-110). These experiences show, in connection with the third policy implication, that while college is increasingly important to achieve the American Dream, if a teenager cannot finish high school, then they cannot achieve a college degree, much less find a high-quality job. 
• Social capital is critical to help teenagers and young adults in achieving success, especially those from working- or low-income backgrounds: This policy implication was already discussed in detail on the first post, so I won't go into it too much. Nonetheless, as both Moore and Vance note in their respective books, social capital they gained through external experiences (e.g. college, the military) helped them on their respective paths to success, which would have been more difficult without. 
• What happens outside school can have significant consequences on youth development: This implication can also apply as a theme that I didn't cover last time, but is one I consider critical to understanding Vance's and both Moores' (both the author and the "other") backgrounds, and what factors influenced their personal development. In particular, while both authors extensively talk about their educational experiences while growing up, a similar amount of time is spent talking about their non-educational life, and how said experiences contributed to their development. When growing up in the Bronx, while Author Moore was enrolled in an elite private school, he spent a significant amount of non-school (and school) time on the street, which included involvement in criminal activity that led to an encounter with the police (Moore 48, 76-84). Meanwhile, the other Wes Moore infrequently attended school before dropping out, and even when he did attend school, his non-school life was chaotic, as his father was absent from his life, his mother was a busy working mom, and much of his time was spent on the street (Moore 17-19, 30, 56-59). At the end of his book, Vance explicitly states that society and public policy (especially education policy) needs to increasingly consider what goes on in the non-school life of youth from communities experiencing socio-economic decline (Vance, 244-245). 
• Unintended pregnancy, especially among teenagers, has serious negative externalities: In both books, Moore and Vance discuss cases of teenage pregnancy in their communities and the effects that it has on the parents and their personal and professional development. Most notably, after becoming a high school dropout, the other Moore impregnated his two teenage girlfriends multiple times, which put significant strain on his personal decisions and outlook (Moore 99-101, 110, 137-138). Going further, author Moore speculated that having several children to support may have been the downfall of other Moore, causing him to return to a life of crime post-Job Corps (Moore 181-182). In Vance's family, his cousin Gail was on track to enter college right after high school when she got pregnant, which threw her life into chaos, which included a straining of relations with her family (Vance 240-241). Fortunately, her life bounced back after she got a job, returned to school, and remarried (Vance 241). As these cases show, unintended pregnancies can have significant negative impacts on families and individuals, including family members and acquittances. 

Works Cited:

Moore, Wes. The Other Wes Moore. Spiegel and Grau: New York, 2011.

Vance, J.D. Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis. HarperCollins: New York, 2016.

Notable Longtime County Voting Streaks that Ended in 2020

Notable Longtime County Voting Streaks that Ended in 2020

Introduction: One of the main thrills of Election Night is watching the county map fill in, and especially watching which counties flip parties from the previous election. While county-level results don't always tell the full story of an election, which counties do flip can offer hints of significant regional or national trends, especially if the counties that flip sides have similar socio-demographics and/or are geographically-contiguous. This post will not cover all counties that flipped parties this year compared to 2016, but will instead go over ones that broke voting streaks of 4 cycles of more (i.e. from 2004 or earlier). 

Map 1: 2016-2020 Presidential Election County Flips

Base Map Source: Kbh3rd. "File:USA Counties with FIPS and names.svg." Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 Oct. 2018, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:USA_Counties_with_FIPS_and_names.svg. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

 

Note: The counties profiled below are notated on the map above. I do apologize for the map being a bit grainy and blurry in places, as it was originally a .svg file I filled-in with MS Paint. I was unable to find a higher-quality blank county map with a similar copyright level on Wikimedia Commons. This map was made by comparing county-level results from 2016 and 2020. 

Regarding Alaska, major news outlets (I have been using ABC News for 2020 election results, and The New York Times for 2016 election results; both links are included below) do not divide Alaska's votes by boroughs (their equivalent of counties). Anchorage flipping from red to blue was determined from an Alaskan news source. I have also heard reports from Twitter that the North Slope Borough flipped red from blue, but could not confirm this from other sources. 

Democratic County Flips:

• Anchorage, AK (Anchorage) (last voted Democratic in 1964): Alaska's largest city and main economic hub had been a Republican hold for many years, but 2020 reversed that trend, with Joe Biden becoming the first Democrat to win since LBJ (Brooks). 
• Chesterfield, VA (Richmond suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1948): While this suburban Richmond county voted for Trump's first presidential campaign, signs were building within a year that its longtime red streak was about to end. In 2017's gubernatorial election, Democrat (now-Governor) Ralph Northam narrowly won Chesterfield as he cruised to a large victory in the state ("Virginia Election Results"). 
• Deschutes, OR (Bend; Redmond) (last voted Democratic in 1992): Normally, virtually all of Eastern Oregon is dark-red and conservative, as much of the region comprises significant rural, small-town, and agricultural territory. However, Deschutes County is an exception, due to containing the relatively-liberal city of Bend, which sits at the base of the Cascades. Biden won the county 53%-45%, becoming the second Democrat to win here since LBJ (Warner). 
• Duval, FL (Jacksonville and suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1976): Like Tarrant and Maricopa (both covered below), Jacksonville, Florida's Duval County was one of the last major urban counties voting Republican in the Obama and Trump era. And like many of the other counties on this list, it voted blue in Florida's Senate and Gubernatorial elections two years ago ("National Results"), something that would be replicated at the presidential-level this year. 
• Frederick, MD (DC exurbs) (last voted Democratic in 1964): While Northern Virginia has seen a significant Democratic shift in the last few cycles, the already-blue portion of Maryland's DC/Baltimore axis has also begun to bleed into more purple/red-leaning surrounding counties. Last time, Anne Arundel County (containing Fort Meade and Maryland's capitol of Annapolis) voted Democratic for the first time since 1964 (Davis). On the other side of I-95 is Frederick County, containing the increasingly-exurban Frederick and surrounding areas, which modestly voted Republican in 2008, 2012, and 2016. In 2018, Senator Ben Cardin (D) won Frederick as he cruised to another victory in the Old Line State ("National Results"), becoming another county where the 2018 vote foreshadowed its 2020 vote. 
• Garfield, CO (Glenwood Springs) (last voted Democratic in 1992): Stretching along the Colorado River and I-70 as it begins to ascend into the Rockies, this tourist- and vacation home-heavy county flipped Democratic for the first time in almost 30 years. 
• Hays, TX (San Marcos; Texas State) (last voted Democratic in 1992): Overshadowed by Austin just to the north, this small county is also dominated by a major university (Texas State), but voted light-red or purple through Obama. However, like other counties on this list, Hays began trending blue in the Trump era, with Hillary Clinton narrowly losing Hays ("2016 Presidential", and 2018's Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial candidates both carrying the county ("National Results"). These wins culminated in Joe Biden's double-digit win of Hays (Streicher), the first in almost 30 years. 
• Inyo, CA (Bishop; Death Valley NP) (last voted Democratic in 1964): Out of all of Biden's county flips this year, Inyo County may seem like the most surprising, as it is a thinly-populated High Desert county that has voted Republican for a long time. A possible explanation: the presence of Death Valley National Park in the county attracting a significant number of tourist industry, outdoors-loving, and environmental-oriented people, who tend to vote Democratic, similar to Garfield, CO (profiled above). 
• James City, VA (Hampton Roads suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1968): Stretching through suburban territory around Williamsburg in the Hampton Roads region, James City County had not voted Democratic in almost a half-century. Like Stafford, Lexington, and Chesterfield counties, Tim Kaine (D) won James City as part of his 15-point re-election in 2018, possibly a foreshadow of this year's results ("National Results"). Even earlier, now-Governor Ralph Northam narrowly lost James City in his 2017 victory ("Virginia Election").     
• Johnson, KS (Kansas City suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1916 or 1932*): Regardless if this suburban Kansas City county last voted Democratic in 1916 or 1932 (*the close 1932 results are disputed) (Wheel), this year broke a long streak in Kansas's most-populated county that is now heavily suburban. Two years ago, Johnson County was critical in assisting now-Governor Laura Kelly (D)'s successful campaign, as she won Johnson by almost 18% against Republican Kris Kobach and Independent Greg Orman (Sentor). 
• Lynchburg, VA (Lynchburg) (last voted Democratic in 1948): Controversial for its past and current pro-Confederate associations (Gore), and home of Liberty University, this Central Virginia city broke a Republican presidential voting streak stretching back to Dwight D. Eisenhower (Oliver). 
• Maricopa, AZ (Phoenix and suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1948): Prior to Trump, Arizona's Maricopa County was among the last urban and heavily-populated counties to vote Republican, as it contains most of Phoenix's red suburbs in addition to Phoenix itself. However, this began to change in the lead-up to the 2016 election, where pundits predicted that Hillary Clinton had the potential to win the county due to its educated White and Hispanic populations, two groups thought to be hostile to Trump (Wheel). While this didn't happen, Maricopa was still very close in the end, voting for Trump by 3% ("2016 Presidential"). Two years later, now-Senator Krysten Sinema (D) won Maricopa by 60,000 votes as part of her historic victory in the Grand Canyon State (Rothenberg). Joe Biden's win of Arizona (the second since WW2) heavily relied on winning Maricopa by 3% (Cole), thus breaking its long Republican streak. 
• Morris, NJ (NYC suburbs and exurbs) (last voted Democratic in 1964): Despite suburban New Jersey's increasingly-blue shift in the post-Clinton and post-Obama eras, suburban and exurban Morris County held out, voting narrowly for McCain, Romney, and Trump 2016. This time, the tables turned, with both Biden and Senator Cory Booker (D) winning Morris as part of their statewide victories (Coughlin). 
• New Hanover, NC (Wilmington) (last voted Democratic in 1976): The ending point for Interstate 40 has historically been a Republican-leaning locale due to a significant military and retiree presence (similar to Virginia Beach, detailed below). Prior to this year's election, it was seen as a potential bellwether for the state and nation because of these demographics, especially Biden's potential strength amongst retirees and active military members (Wasserman). While North Carolina remained Republican this time, New Hanover narrowly voted for Biden after narrowly voting Republican for three cycles (Dill). 
• Riley, KS (Manhattan; Kansas State) (never voted Democratic): Kansas has been a reliably-Republican state for a long time, and Riley County, which had never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, has long symbolized this trend. However, like other places mentioned here, it was speculated that Hillary Clinton had the potential to win this county because of its highly-educated and student population, two groups hostile to Trump (Wheel). This time, it flipped and voted for Joe Biden by 2%, making history by voting for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time ever. 
• Seminole, FL (Orlando suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1948): Located north of Orlando, this suburban county had not voted blue since Harry Truman, but became more light-red during Obama's elections, and continued to shift towards the purple in 2016 and 2018. Like other similar places on this list, Biden broke its long voting streak despite the county against its overlying state (Soto and Wildman). 
• Shawnee, KS (Topeka) (last voted Democratic in 1992): Containing Kansas's state capitol, Shawnee County voted light-red in 2008, 2012, and 2016 before voting for Joe Biden, thus breaking a Republican voting streak lasting to 1996. 
• Stafford, VA (DC exurbs) (last voted Democratic in 1976): A pre-2016 election article (which I was unable to re-find for this post) described how Northern Virginia's political battle lines have changed since 2000, deeming Stafford as the new dividing point between red and blue in the Trump era. This idea became especially discussed in the lead-up to the 2017 gubernatorial election, especially considering Trump's poor performance in Northern Virginia a year prior, and the region's significant socio-demographic changes in recent years (Todd). This year's results seem to indicate that the battle line has likely shifted beyond exurban Stafford, as the county voted for Biden. Two years ago, Senator Tim Kaine (D) won Stafford as part of his 17% re-election ("National Results"). 
• Talbot, MD (Easton) (last voted Democratic in 1964): Located on the Eastern Shore across from Annapolis, this county is somewhat of an extension of the D.C. metro area. After voting Republican for almost 60 years, Talbot narrowly voted blue this time, helping power Biden's giant lead in the Old Line State (Barker). 
• Tarrant, TX (Fort Worth; DFW suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1964): Like Maricopa, Tarrant was one of the few remaining heavily-populated counties still voting Republican through Obama, as Tarrant contains both urban Fort Worth and more conservative suburbs spread throughout. Yet, Trump's regression here in 2016 and 2018 Senate candidate Beto o'Rourke's (D) narrow victory in Tarrant gave Democrats optimism that this place was ripe for the picking. Mirroring many of the other counties on this list, o'Rourke's 2018 win was replicated by the former Vice-President's narrow win of Tarrant (Kennedy). With Tarrant and Maricopa flipping blue, the most-populated county to vote Republican this year was Long Island's Suffolk County, which only voted narrowly for Trump (@Larry_Benjam1n). 
• Virginia Beach, VA (Virginia Beach) (last voted Democratic in 1964): With a heavy military presence, Virginia Beach remained a Republican hotspot for a long time, despite the county becoming more purple during and after Obama. Biden flipped Virginia Beach blue as part of his 10-point win of Virginia (Lewis). 
• Williamson, TX (Austin suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1976): When this county last voted Democratic, it was mostly rural and exurban. Since then, Austin's suburbs have spread northward into Williamson, and many new industries (such as high-tech) have moved in, turning it into a classic "Sun Belt Suburban" county that began to trend back as young families and educated workers moved in (Linan). Like other counties on this list, Democrats' 2018 performance probably foreshadowed this year's results, as o'Rourke carried Williamson as part of his narrow loss ("National Results"). Meanwhile, 2018 Congressional candidate (this year's Senate candidate) M.J. Hegar (D) almost unseated local incumbent Rep. John Carter (R) (not the Edgar Burroughs character whose 2012 Disney adaptation was lackluster) due to narrowly winning Williamson ("Texas House"). 

Republican County Flips: 

• Alamosa, CO (Alamosa) (last voted Republican in 2004): Famous among UFO enthusiasts for being home to the high-profile "Snippy the Horse" animal mutilation case (Labato), this rural and heavily-Latino county turned red after voting against Trump four years ago (Frank and Osgood).  
• Lorain, OH (Lorain; Oberlin) (last voted Republican in 1984): This blue-collar and midle-class county heavily shifted towards Trump in 2016 while narrowly voting for Clinton (Crowe). This time, it flipped red for the first time since Ronald Reagan in 1984 (Sullivan). 
• Mahoning, OH (Youngstown) (last voted Republican in 1972): In 2016, Donald Trump's nationwide and Ohio victory witnessed once-Democratic Northeast Ohio, with its blue-collar union population, swing heavily-Republican. Like Lorain, Mahoning County, home of majority-Black Youngstown, narrowly voted for Hillary Clinton (Crowe). This year, Democratic luck here ran out, as Mahoning flipped red, leaving Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Summit (Akron) Counties as the only two blue counties left in Northeast Ohio. 
• Southern Counties: In the Southern states, Trump flipped multiple counties that had been longtime Democratic holds, all of which were either nearly or majority-minority: 
• Burke, GA (Waynesboro; >40% African-American) (last voted Republican in 2004) 
• Clarendon, SC (Manning; >50% African-American) (last voted Republican in 1972)
• Dillon, SC (Dillon; >40% African-American) (last voted Republican in 1988)
• Scotland, NC (Laurinburg; >40% Nonwhite) (last voted Republican in 1984): Southern North Carolina's Scotland County is an extension of neighboring Robeson County, which gained attention after the 2019 NC-9 special election for Republican (now) Representative) Dan Bishop's performance among Lumbee Native American voters (Coleman). In similarity to Robeson, Scotland County has a sizable Lumbee population in addition to African-American minority groups, and joined Robeson in voting for Trump after narrowly voting for Hillary Clinton four years ago (Green; Murphy). Trump performed well among the Lumbee people, a group that both he and Biden pledged to support their quest for Federal recognition (Fordham). 
• South Texas Counties: All of the following counties are combined into this category, being largely rural and majority-Latino. Trump's unexpected and massive surge among Texas Latinos significantly carved into this historically-Democratic region, which included flipping the following counties:  
• Frio, TX (Pearsall; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 2004) 
• Jim Wells, TX (Alice; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 1972)
• Kleberg, TX (Kingsville; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 2004)
• La Salle, TX (Cotulla; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 1972)
• Reeves, TX (Pecos; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 2004)
• Val Verde, TX (Del Rio; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 2004)
• Zapata, TX (Zapata; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 1920) (Rothschild)

Conclusion: Solely based on which counties flipped parties and broke longtime voting streaks, some of 2020's main electoral trends clearly stand out. In particular, most of the counties Biden flipped blue from 2016 were educated, middle-class-to-affluent, and either largely suburban, home to major schools, tourist hotspots, and/or liberal retiree populations. On the Republican end, Trump continued to surge in blue-collar and rural America, especially in the Midwest and South. The significant surge among South Texas Latinos (discussed in my immediate post-election analysis) stands out, as does Trump's surge in Southern counties with a slight majority or just-under-majority of nonwhite voters, reflecting the effects of this year's rural GOP surge. 

Election Results:

"2016 Presidential Election Results." The New York Times, last modified 9 Aug. 2017, www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

"2020 US Presidential Election Results: Live Map." ABC News, last modified 9 Dec. 2020, abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map/. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Bloch, Matthew, et al. "An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2016 Presidential Election." The New York Times, last modified 25 Jul. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

"National Results." CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2018/results. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

• 2018 Election Results

Sullivan, Robert David. "How the red and blue map evolved over the past century." America: The Jesuit Review, 29 Jun. 2016, www.americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/how-red-and-blue-map-evolved-over-past-century. Accessed 7 Nov. 2020. 

• Used for historical election data on the last time individual counties voted for one of the two main parties in a presidential election. 

"Virginia Election Results: Northam Defeats Gillespie in Governor Race." The New York Times, last modified 20 Dec. 2017, www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Works Cited:

@Larry_Benjam1n. "The 25 most popolous counties (2018 population estimate) were won by Biden.

Suffolk, NY (26th) was the most popolous red county. Than Collin, TX (45th), Kern, CA (61st), Macomb, MI (65th), Denton, TX (67th), Oklahoma (80th) were red. @Redistrict @JMilesColeman

@SenhorRaposa." Twitter, 9 Dec. 2020, 7:43am, twitter.com/Larry_Benjam1n/status/1336697970004258818. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Barker, Jeff. "Is Maryland growing even more blue politically? Democrats are showing gains in battleground counties." Baltimore Sun, 9 Dec. 2020, www.baltimoresun.com/politics/elections/bs-md-red-blue-maryland-20201209-j37jfaqoqveo7g6ciqshbwyhn4-story.html. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Brooks, James. "Biden will claim Alaska’s best showing for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964." Anchorage Daily News, 17 Nov. 2020, www.adn.com/politics/2020/11/17/biden-will-claim-alaskas-best-showing-for-a-democratic-presidential-candidate-since-1964/. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Cole, Brendan. "Joe Biden Becomes First Democrat to Win Arizona's Maricopa County Since Truman." Newsweek, 13 Nov. 2020, www.newsweek.com/arizona-joe-biden-donald-trump-truman-maricopa-county-1547143. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Coleman, J. Miles. "NC-9: West to the Left, East to the Right." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 26 Sept. 2019, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/nc-09-west-to-the-left-east-to-the-right/. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Coughlin, Kevin. "Morris County’s election numbers are in… and they are BIG." Morristown Green, 23 Nov. 2020, morristowngreen.com/2020/11/23/morris-countys-election-numbers-are-in-and-they-are-big/. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Crowe, Kevin, et al. "No blue wave, no red tide: Historic election turnout boosts Biden in Michigan, Trump in Ohio." USA Today, 12 Nov. 2020, www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/11/12/election-2020-historic-voter-surge-turns-michigan-blue-ohio-red/6234140002/. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Davis, Paul. "After 52 years, Anne Arundel goes for a Democrat — and picks the loser." Annapolis Capital-Gazette, 9 Nov. 2016, www.capitalgazette.com/politics/ph-ac-cn-arundel-election-wrap-1110-20161109-story.html. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Dill, Emma. "Breaking with tradition, New Hanover voters back Joe Biden." Wilmington StarNews, 10 Nov. 2020, www.starnewsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/10/new-hanover-backs-joe-biden-first-democratic-presidential-win-years/6193789002/. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

"Explore Census Data." United States Census Bureau, data.census.gov/cedsci/. Accessed 7 Nov. 2020. 

Fordham, Evie. "Trump investment in North Carolina's Native American Lumbee Tribe pays off." Fox News, 6 Nov. 2020, www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-north-carolina-lumbee-robeson-native-american. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Frank, John, and Carrie Osgood. "Colorado continues to shift blue: The 2020 election, explained in graphics." The Colorado Sun, 10 Nov. 2020, coloradosun.com/2020/11/10/colorado-2020-election-explained/. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Gore, Sherese. "Amid swirl of debate over Confederate symbols, a look at Lynchburg’s Civil War monuments." The News and Advance, 18 Jul. 2015, newsadvance.com/news/local/amid-swirl-of-debate-over-confederate-symbols-a-look-at-lynchburg-s-civil-war-monuments/article_aa5a151e-2dbd-11e5-bd72-f7f1e2671c0e.html. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Green, Jordan. "What the 2020 election results say about North Carolina." Triad City Beat, 11 Nov. 2020, triad-city-beat.com/2020-election-results-north-carolina/. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Jacobson, Lewis. "Biden Gained Votes Nationwide on the Way to Victory." US News and World Report, 10 Nov. 2020, www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-11-10/joe-biden-gained-votes-nationwide-on-the-way-to-victory. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Kennedy, Bud. "For Tarrant Democrats, a big state Senate win and a lot of oh-so-close calls." Fort Worth Star-Telegram, 6 Nov. 2020, www.star-telegram.com/opinion/bud-kennedy/article221207450.html. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Lewis, Bob. "Could a Biden White House be just the thing to break the Virginia GOP’s election drought?" Virginia Mercury, 16 Nov. 2020, www.virginiamercury.com/2020/11/16/could-a-biden-white-house-be-just-the-thing-to-break-the-virginia-gops-election-drought/. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Linan, Ali. "Joe Biden takes majority in historically Republican Williamson County." Georgetown Community Impact Newspaper, 4 Nov. 2020, communityimpact.com/austin/georgetown/election/2020/11/04/joe-biden-takes-majority-in-historically-republican-williamson-county/. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Lobato, Sylvia. "After 50 years, Snippy still a mystery." Alamosa News, 29 Sept. 2017, alamosanews.com/article/after-50-years-snippy-still-a-mystery. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Murphy, Brian. "The Lumbee have waited a long time for federal recognition. This month will be critical." Charlotte News&Observer, 7 Dec. 2020, www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article247604590.html. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Oliver, Ned. "Chesterfield and Lynchburg hadn’t backed a Democrat for president since 1948. Biden changed that." Virginia Mercury, 5 Nov. 2020, www.virginiamercury.com/2020/11/05/chesterfield-county-hadnt-backed-a-democrat-for-president-since-1948-biden-changed-that/. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Rothenberg, Stuart. "Donald Trump’s Maricopa problem." Roll Call, 28 Apr. 2020, www.rollcall.com/2020/04/28/donald-trumps-maricopa-problem/. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Rothschild, Neal. "Four demographic trends that explain Biden's victory." Axios, 11 Nov. 2020, www.axios.com/election-biden-trump-demographics-639b6c8e-6e5c-43c8-962f-dca6a127c4ef.html. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Sentor, Jay. "Briefly noted: Big margin in Johnson County key to Laura Kelly’s win for governor." Shawnee Mission-Post, 8 Nov. 2020, shawneemissionpost.com/2018/11/08/big-margin-in-johnson-county-key-to-laura-kellys-win-for-governor-75077/. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Soto, Justin, and Asher Wildman. "Seminole County Turns Blue for Presidential Election for the First Time in Decades." Spectrum News 13, 4 Nov. 2020, www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/decision-2020/2020/11/04/seminole-county-turns-blue-for-presidential-election-for-the-first-time-in-decades. Accessed 10 Dec. 2002. 

Streicher, Brad. "How some Texas counties flipped during the 2020 presidential election." KVUE, 4 Nov. 2020, www.kvue.com/article/news/politics/vote-texas/how-some-texas-counties-flipped-during-the-2020-presidential-election/269-887ff8ba-0f18-4147-927e-02928b3103c9. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

"Texas House of Representatives election results 2018." CNN, last modified 21 Dec. 2018, www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/texas/house. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Todd, Brad. "Tuesday’s winner in Virginia could predict a Trump win in 2020." The Hill, 5 Nov. 2020, thehill.com/opinion/campaign/358827-tuesdays-winner-in-virginia-could-predict-a-trump-win-in-2020. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Warner, Gary. "Deschutes joins Oregon's blue hue in presidential voting, and other voting stats." The Bulletin, 20 Nov. 2020, www.bendbulletin.com/localstate/state/deschutes-joins-oregons-blue-hue-in-presidential-voting-and-other-voting-stats/article_48e8b48e-1405-5057-b0b5-cb3481b49263.html. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Wasserman, David. "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble." The New York Times, 6 Oct. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/10/06/opinion/biden-trump-bellwether-counties-.html. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

Wheel, Robert. "The 2016 Streak Breakers." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 6 Oct. 2016, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-2016-streak-breakers/. Accessed 7 Nov. 2020. 

The San Joaquin Valley Electoral Politics Project, Part 5: 2020 Federal Election Results

The San Joaquin Valley Electoral Politics Project, Part 5: 2020 Federal Election Results

Introduction: This post was already in the preparation stage of this blog's "Assembly Line" since Election Day, but was awaiting full and complete election results from the San Joaquin Valley counties. With California's results now finalized and certified, it is time to look at this year's presidential and House election results (there was no Senate election in California this year) from the San Joaquin Valley. The bibliography below utilizes the final results from each San Joaquin County because the California Statement of Vote was not published by this post's publication time; I will update the works cited with the state-level certified results once it is published on the Secretary of State's website. 

Previous Editions of The San Joaquin Electoral Politics Project: While I will not re-post content (including visuals and tables) from previous editions of this project, I will be referencing past material from Parts 2 and 4. Links to all four past editions are below: 

• 8/30/2020: Part 1: 2010-2018 Gubernatorial Results
• 9/3/2020: Part 2: 2012-2018 House Results
• 9/10/2020: Part 3: 1998-2018 Senate Results
• 10/8/2020: Part 4: 2008-2016 Presidential Results

Table 1: 2020 San Joaquin Valley Combined House and Presidential Election Results

Figure 1: Presidential and Combined House Raw Vote Margins and Winners by County

Presidential Results: All votes from the eight San Joaquin Valley counties combined, projected President-Elect Joe Biden (D) narrowly won the San Joaquin Valley by 1.7% and 25,000 votes, a slight improvement over Hillary Clinton's 0.8% (8,800 votes) win four years ago. Like Clinton, Biden won the combined vote from the "Northern Three" counties and Metro Fresno, but lost the "Southern Three" while improving significantly over her performance there. 

Compared to 2016, Biden improved his percentage margins in every San Joaquin Valley county except Stanislaus and Merced. Notably, Biden improved by 3-5 percent in the "Southern Three" counties of Kings, Tulare, and Kern, as well as Republican-leaning Madera. Fresno County also became slightly more Democratic, whose margin of 28,000 votes was slightly higher than Biden's Valley-wide 25,000 margin. 

Table 2: 2012-2020 House Election Results by County and District

House Results: At the House-level, House Democratic candidates narrowly lost the Valley, but improved over their 51%-49% loss two years ago. The only change to the Valley's House delegation is CA-21, where ex-Rep. David Valadao (R) narrowly won back his former seat against Rep. T.J. Cox (D), who defeated Valadao two years ago ("Former House"). All other San Joaquin Valley incumbents won re-election, some improving drastically over their 2018 results. Of note is freshman Rep. Josh Harder (D)'s 11% re-election victory in CA-10, a swing of 7% after his narrow win against Rep. Jeff Denham (R) two years ago. Tabulated by county (Tables 1 and 2), the exact county distribution remains the same from 2018, and all eight San Joaquin Valley counties gave at least a plurality to the presidential and Congressional candidate(s) from the same party. 

While complete presidential results broken down by Congressional district boundaries (both overall and between counties) are not available yet, some insight can be gleaned from county-wide results as to ticket-splitting in the Valley, displayed on Table 1. As part of his re-election, Rep. Harder won Stanislaus County by almost 10%, a swing of 6% from 2018, while Biden won by less than 1% there. Rep. Jim Costa (D) also outperformed Biden in Merced County as part his re-election. On the other hand, the "Southern Three," Fresno, and Madera Counties witnessed significant Biden/House Republican ticket splitting, which is especially prevalent in Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties. In particular, in Kern County, House Democratic candidates ran almost 10 points behind Biden, while Rep. Cox (D) ran 5% behind the (projected) President-Elect in Kings County.   

Conclusion and Implications: While this year's election cycle is not completely "over" (since the soon-to-be-held Electoral College decides the president), the results offer some clues for potential electoral trends that could occur through the rest of the decade in the Valley. In particular, this year's results solidify the narrative that the while San Joaquin Valley remains a purple region overall, it is becoming increasingly-blue at the presidential-level, and to a lesser extent at the House-level. However, as detailed in the post examining past gubernatorial election results, the Valley continues to be more Republican-friendly at the state-level, which held true even in 2018, a Democratic wave year. 

The big question going forward is how the Valley will vote in the next few cycles, which have a wide range of possibilities due to its flexible and purple nature. In particular, with the potential for the 2022 midterms to be a punishing one for Democrats, the Valley could trend back towards the Republicans, although the extent to which it could is likely to be determined by turnout levels, another currently-unknown variable significant to Valley politics. This includes at the Federal-level, as California will have an open Senate seat due to Sen. Kamala Harris (D)'s expected resignation to become Vice-President, and Governor Gavin Newsom (D)'s appointing of a replacement Senator. Finally, with post-Census redistricting around the corner, today's House districts will likely be redrawn, thus creating new opportunities and inhabitations for current incumbents and future challengers. 

Election Results:

"California House Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last modified 5 Dec. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/california/house/. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020. 

"CERTIFIED FINAL OFFICIAL RESULTS ON DECEMBER 3, 2020." San Joaquin County Registrar of Voters, last modified 3 Dec. 2020, www.livevoterturnout.com/SanJoaquinCA/LiveResults/en/Index_8.html. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020.

"County of Fresno Consolidated General Election November 3, 2020 Final Election Results." Fresno County County Clerk/Registrar of Voters, last modified 25 Nov. 2020, www.co.fresno.ca.us/departments/county-clerk-registrar-of-voters/election-information/election-results/results-of-november-3-2020-presidential-general-election. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020. 

"County of Kings General Election-November 3, 2020 Final Official Results." County of Kings, California Elections, 30 Nov. 2020, www.countyofkings.com/home/showpublisheddocument?id=24965. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020. 

"Election Summary Report-General Election-Tulare-November 03, 2020-Final Official Election Results Report." Tulare County Registrar of Voters, 25 Nov. 2020, tularecoelections.org/elections/index.cfm/registrar-of-voters/current-election-information/november-3-2020-presidential-general-election/post-election-night-results/final-official-election-night-results-report/. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020. 

"Kern County Election Results-November 3, 2020 Presidential General Election." Kern County, last modified 30 Nov. 2020, kernvote.com/ElectionInformation/Results/?ID=107. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020. 

"Official Election Summary of the Consolidated Presidential General Election held on November 3, 2020 in the County of Madera, State of California." VoteMadera, 25 Nov. 2020, votemadera.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Official-Final-Result-Summary-November-3-2020-General-Election.pdf. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020. 

"Presidential General Election-November 3, 2020." Merced County, last modified 25 Nov. 2020, results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Merced/107145/web.264614/#/detail/0004. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020. 

"Stanislaus County General Election 11/3/2020." Stanislaus County Registrar of Voters, last modified 23 Nov. 2020, www.stanvote.com/past-results/results.htm. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020. 

Works Cited:

"Former House Republican flips central California seat." Associated Press, 27 Nov. 2020, apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-california-house-elections-david-valadao-e912d4a58cce739925921fd2ca28d7cc. Accessed 6 Dec. 2020. 

Four Significant Social Policy Issues Facing the Incoming Government

Four Significant Social Policy Issues Facing the Incoming Government

Introduction: This post is a follow-up and derivative to a post-election post highlighting budget and fiscal policy issues facing the new president and Congress (regardless of Georgia's Senate runoffs). This post will be another discussion of policy issues facing the new government, with a focus on social policy-related issues. In particular, social policies meant to help Americans weather the ongoing pandemic's health-related and economic impacts will be significant issues come January, especially those under the CARES Act. 

The Four Issues:

• Expiration of CARES Act Unemployment Benefits: During the 2020 general election season, I twice covered the status of legislation negotiations on a potential second CARES Act (or "CARES Act II"). However, as of publication time (12/3/2020 at 8pm PST), a new CARES Act equivalent has not passed both houses of Congress ("Second Stimulus"). As the end of the year approaches, some of the social welfare benefits implemented by the CARES Act are expiring, most of which intertwine with the other policy issues covered below. Among the benefits ending this month include the halt on Federal student loan repayments (Stratford) (discussed further below), the eviction moratorium (discussed further below) and unemployment insurance covering freelancers and self-employed workers, which is the focus of this paragraph (Iacurci). With these deadlines in mind, Congressional negotiations have continued, with a bipartisan bill recently introduced that would extend the CARES Act's unemployment benefits for four more months, although Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) opposes this idea. Both him and Democratic Minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) have introduced their own proposals, with the former providing less assistance to unemployed workers, and the latter providing an extension of "enhanced unemployment" through next October. At the state-level, some states have extended their unemployment benefits to cover extra weeks of unemployment after the New Year begins (Dolcourt and Gonzalez). 
• The Costs of Child Care: Since pandemic-related measures were implemented, increased discussion has focused on the effects of rising costs of child care on working and low-income parents, especially those unable to work remotely (Fields and Heggeness; Jessen-Howard and Workman). As detailed on the first CARES Act post, the CARES Act did not include direct support to help parents pay for child care, but did provide support for child care providers to remain open and afford critical supplies, and a block grant to allow working parents to afford child care (Campbell and Smith). As detailed in the my previous post comparing and contrasting the different proposals, both the HEROES (House Democratic) and HEALS (Senate Republican) acts provide different policy ideas to address this issue. However, as neither have passed as of publication time ("Second Stimulus"), the issue of child care will almost certainly continue, especially with renewed stay-at-home measures and economic closures in many parts of the country. 
• Residential Evictions: While this specific issue was also discussed earlier because of CARES Act-related programs addressing it, the expiration of said benefits would create a significant policy issues for the new government. As a result of a massive in COVID-related unemployment, more Americans than ever are at risk of eviction due to lower incomes and the need to provide for other essentials. The CARES Act included a moratorium halting nonpayment-based evictions of residents in Federally-backed properties and programs. While some states and locales have passed similar measures going further than the Federal legislation, the CARES Act only covers about half of all renters, and only allows tenants to delay rent payments, resulting in increased debt owed by tenants to landowners (Acosta et al.). Eviction advocates have warned that when the CARES Act moratorium expires this month, 40 million tenants could be at risk of eviction is no further action is taken. While lawmakers in Washington have generally supported rental assistance, no action has been taken on the issue, either on its own or as part of a larger stimulus package (Demsas). If no Federal-level action is taken before the moratorium expires, the new government in January will face this critical issue and the effects it could have on working-class Americans.  
• Student Debt (Growth and Forgiveness Proposals): Aside from the expiration of student debt policies from the CARES Act, the state of aggregate and individual-level student debt in the U.S. remains a significant problem. Right now, it is estimated that almost $1.7 trillion of student debt exists within the United States, while individual borrowers owe an average of $36,000 (Rindlisbacher). During his general election campaign, Biden's student debt proposal focused on eliminating $10,000 of student debt per borrower (Murakami). After Biden's projected win as President-Elect, prominent Democrats began to suggest for him to go further than his campaign ideas, arguing that Biden could eliminate up to $50,000 of individual student debt with an Executive Order once in the White House (Berger). Furthermore, progressives have continued to discuss broader student loan forgiveness ideas, including wiping away all student debt, and making higher education free in the future (Fearnow). These ideas have been opposed by Republicans and some Democrats, who argue that such measures are unfair to those who have not attended college (Fearnow; Vesoulis) or went to college without taking on much or any debt (Fearnow; Vesoulis). The Trump administration's current student loan policy emphasizes initiating income-based repayment plans, temporarily suspending loan payments during the pandemic, and stopping collections of loans in default (Fearnow). Regardless, the constantly-increasing bubble of American higher education debt is a significant ongoing issue going into the new Congress, especially if no alternative or extension is implemented to offset the expiring CARES Act student loan policies.

Works Cited:

Acosta, Sonya, Anna Bailey, and Peggy Bailey. "Extend CARES Act Eviction Moratorium, Combine With Rental Assistance to Promote Housing Stability." Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 27 Jul. 2020, www.cbpp.org/research/housing/extend-cares-act-eviction-moratorium-combine-with-rental-assistance-to-promote. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Berger, Rob. "Will Biden Cancel Your Student Loans In January?." Forbes, 30 Nov. 2020, www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january/?sh=1b1473fac7b1. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Campbell, Megan, and Linda Smith. "CCDBG Funds in the CARES Act." Bipartisan Policy Center, 2 Apr. 2020, bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/ccdbg-funds-in-the-cares-act/. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Demsas, Jerusalem. "We know how to prevent up to 40 million people from being evicted. It’s up to Congress to do it.." Vox, 27 Nov. 2020, www.vox.com/21569601/eviction-moratorium-cdc-covid-19-congress-rental-assistance-rent-crisis. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Dolcourt, Jessica, and Oscar Gonzalez. "Stimulus deal: Time is running out on these 5 benefits." CNET, 2 Dec. 2020, www.cnet.com/personal-finance/stimulus-deal-time-is-running-out-on-these-5-benefits/. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Fearnow, Benjamin. "Student Loan Debt 'Your Own Fault': Conservatives Blast Biden Forgiveness Proposals." Newsweek, 21 Nov. 2020, www.newsweek.com/student-loan-debt-your-own-fault-conservatives-blast-biden-forgiveness-proposals-1549279. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Fields, Jason, and Misty Heggeness. "Working Moms Bear Brunt of Home Schooling While Working During COVID-19." United States Census Bureau, 18 Aug. 2020, www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/08/parents-juggle-work-and-child-care-during-pandemic.html. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Jessen-Howard, Steven, and Simon Workman. "The True Cost of Providing Safe Child Care During the Coronavirus Pandemic." Center for American Progress, 3 Sept. 2020, www.americanprogress.org/issues/early-childhood/reports/2020/09/03/489900/true-cost-providing-safe-child-care-coronavirus-pandemic/. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Johnson, Marty. "Inequality of student loan debt underscores possible Biden policy shift." The Hill, 28 Nov. 2020, thehill.com/policy/finance/527646-inequality-of-student-loan-debt-underscores-possible-biden-policy-shift. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Iacurci, Greg. "14 million workers face losing unemployment benefits at the end of December." CNBC, 25 Nov. 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/11/25/14-million-workers-face-losing-unemployment-benefits-at-the-end-december.html. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Keith, Katie. "Supreme Court Arguments: Even If Mandate Falls, Rest Of Affordable Care Act Looks Likely To Be Upheld." HealthAffairs, 11 Nov. 2020, www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20201111.916623/full/. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Murakami, Kery. "Groups Call on Biden to Cancel Student Debt." InsideHigherEd, 19 Nov. 2020, www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/11/19/biden-urged-cancel-student-debt. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Rindlisbacher, Christof. "Joe Biden Should Absolutely Erase Student Debt via Executive Order." Jacobin Magazine, 17 Nov. 2020, www.jacobinmag.com/2020/11/joe-biden-student-debt-forgiveness-executive-order. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

"Second stimulus check: latest on US coronavirus relief bill." Diario AS US, 29 Nov. 2020, en.as.com/en/2020/11/29/latest_news/1606650512_181016.html. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Stratford, Michael. "Education Department pauses student loan bills, awaiting Congress or Trump to act." Politico, 1 Dec. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/12/01/education-department-student-loans-442053. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020. 

Vesoulis, Abby. "'This Feels Like the Closest We’ve Ever Been.' Why Growing Demands for Student Debt Forgiveness Could Be Joe Biden's First Presidential Test." Time, 1 Dec. 2020, time.com/5915441/biden-student-debt-relief/. Accessed 3 Dec. 2020.