The Thirteen Gubernatorial Elections of 2020: A Brief Rundown

The Thirteen Gubernatorial Elections of 2020: A Brief Rundown

Introduction: America's electoral politics attention may be focused on Federal-level races this year, yet that does not mean that races at the state-level are less important or noteworthy. Yet, presidential election years do feature several state-level gubernatorial elections that carry significance not only to their states, but national politics. Eleven states and two territories (American Samoa and Puerto Rico) are hosting gubernatorial elections this year, all of which are described below. 

Distribution of Gubernatorial Elections: Normally, gubernatorial elections are distributed on 4-year cycles as follows. Note that New Hampshire's and Vermont's governors are up for re-election every 2 years, and that the list below does not include special elections in an "off-year." 

• Presidential Election Years (2016, 2020) (13): American Samoa*, Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Puerto Rico*, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia ("Elections")
• Year after Presidential Election (2017, 2021) (2): New Jersey, Virginia (Barton et al.)
• Midterm Years (2018, 2022) (39): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Guam*, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Northern Mariana Islands*, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virgin Islands*, Wisconsin, Wyoming ("2018 Gubernatorial")
• Year after Midterm Elections (2019, 2023) (3): Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi (Barton et al.)

* denotes territories 

2020 Gubernatorial Races:

• American Samoa (Territory): Incumbent Governor Lolo Matalasi Moliga, first elected in 2012, is term-limited in this U.S. territory where gubernatorial candidates are nonpartisan ("Governor of"). Currently, four pairs of candidates are running for the position, with each pair having a candidate to become Governor and Lieutenant Governor ("American Samoa"; "Four Teams). 
• Delaware: Incumbent Governor Tim Carney (D) is running in an uncertain race against attorney Julianne Murray (R) in Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden's home state. While Carney  should easily win re-election, controversy over his pandemic-related measures has complicated this election (Gamard). 
• Indiana: In 2016, incumbent Mike Pence (R) accepted himself as Donald Trump's vice-presidential candidate, thus voiding his primary victory. Then-Lieutenant Governor Eric Holcomb (R) was then selected by the state Republican party, who eventually won the seat handily despite polls showing the race close (Cook). This time, Holcomb faces businessman Woody Myers (D), and holds a strong lead in polling. A notable aspect of this race has been the rise of Libertarian candidate Donald Rainwater, who has garnered support from the very conservative faction of the Republican Party. In particular, Governor Holcomb has received criticism from this flank over his pandemic-related policies such as face mask rules (Wren). 
• Missouri: Four years ago, ex-Navy SEAL Eric Gretins flipped Missouri's Governorship despite Democratic attempts to hold it (Fenske). Greitens' time as Governor was suddenly interrupted in mid-2018, when he stepped down after a major scandal unraveled in which he was accused of engaging in an extramarital affair and violating campaign finance rules (Romo). Taking his place was Lieutenant Governor Mike Parson (R), who is now running for a full term of his own. Parson faces State Auditor Nicole Galloway (D), currently the only remaining statewide Democrat ("Decision 2020"). While original assessments of this race forecasted that it would not be competitive, polls have recently narrowed, although Parson still has a significant edge (Huguelet; Newell). 
• Montana: Out of this year's gubernatorial elections, this one is arguably the most competitive and the most likely to flip parties. Since 2000, Democrats have consistently held Big Sky Country's governorship, and remained competitive in other lower-level races, even as Montana has become increasingly Republican at the presidential-level (McLaughlin). With popular incumbent governor Steve Bullock (D) term-limited and challenging Senator Steve Daines (R) for the Class 2 Senate Seat ("Factbox"; Nilsen), polls are showing Helena likely to flip Republican (McLaughlin). The Democratic candidate is Bullock's Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney (the grandson of a former governor) (McLaughlin), who beat businesswoman Whitney Williams in the primary. The Republican candidate is current at-large Representative Greg Gianforte (R), who made headlines in his 2017 special election when he assaulted a news reporter the night before the election. Before that, Gianforte previously ran for governor in 2016, losing to Bullock (Drake). Recent polls have shown the race in Gianforte's favor (McLaughlin). 
• New Hampshire: Republican John Sununu (part of a famous NH political family) flipped New Hampshire's governorship in 2016, becoming the youngest governor in the country (Wheeler). Two years later, he was re-elected, despite Democrats taking control of both state legislatures (Dubail). This year, the popular Sununu faces New Hampshire Senate leader John Feltes ("Feltes"). Despite polls showing the race to be competitive, Sununu is said to be in a strong position for re-election (Biello and Rogers).
• North Carolina: In 2016, North Carolina's gubernatorial election remained uncalled for several weeks, with state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) narrowly leading controversial incumbent Pat McCrory (R). Eventually, after all ballots were counted and a series of Republican-ordered recounts in Durham produced little net change in the results, McCrory conceded to Cooper (Graham). Since then, Cooper has built up a fairly positive reputation in the perennial swing state, although like in other states, some of pandemic-related closures have been controversial among Republicans (Seddiq). Cooper's 2020 opponent is Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest (R), whose mother was a former Congresswoman (Mitchell and Navarro; Seddiq). Despite the latter's profile and fundraising, Cooper has a slight but solid lead in the polls, and pundits are considering him likely to win another term ("Factbox"; Mitchell and Navarro). 
• North Dakota: Incumbent Governor Doug Burgum (R), first elected in 2016, is running for a second term with a high approval rating. This time, he faces veterinarian Shelley Lenz (D), and is expected to win another term (Axelrod). 
• Puerto Rico (Territory): After ascending to the Governor's office last year, incumbent Wanda Vázquez of the New Progressive Party tried to run for a term of her own, but lost the primary to Pedro Pierluisi (a registered Democrat) (Florido; Vega). Vázquez (who is a registered Republican) recently endorsed President Trump's re-election campaign, hoping to connect with diaspora communities in the critical state of Florida (Rodriguez). Pierluisi faces Popular Democratic Party candidate Carlos ("Charlie") Delgado and multiple smaller parties in the general election. Another major candidate of note is Alexandra Lugaro of the Citizen's Victory Movement, whose ideology emphasizes anti-colonialism (Florido; Vega). The ongoing debate over whether statehood should be granted to Puerto Rico is one of the defining issues in this election, with Vazquez supporting it, Delgado opposing it, and Lugaro recommending the creation of a constitutional assembly to settle the issue (Florido). 
• Utah: Other than American Samoa and Montana, this is the only other open-seat gubernatorial election this year. Despite being eligible to run again, incumbent Gary Herbert (R) decided to retire. In opening up the seat, Herbert's Lieutenant Governor Spencer Cox (R) narrowly won the Republican primary against ex-Governor and -Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr. (R), who was seeking a political comeback (Winslow). Cox is facing-off with Democrat Christopher Peterson, a University of Utah professor (Dudley), and is expected to win the longtime Republican state (Roche). Recently, both major candidates released an ad calling for the public to observe civility and respect while acknowledging their political differences and disagreements (Lewis). 
• Vermont: At first glance, it may seem odd that the state of Democratic Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders (I) has a Republican governor, especially without considering that said governor ranks amongst the most popular in the country, with a high approval rating ("The 10"). Liberal Republican Phil Scott (R) won his first term in 2016, then secured a second in 2018, despite that year being a Democratic wave, and Senator Sanders simultaneously winning another term of his own (McCullum). Scott is running for a third term, facing Democratic Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman, who is also running for the Progressive Party (Ring). Recent polling shows the popular Scott being favored for re-election (Landen). 
• Washington: After briefly jumping into the Democratic Presidential primary field, incumbent Governor Jay Inslee (D) exited the crowded primary and decided to run for another gubernatorial term (Dareh and Vitali). In July, Inslee secured one of the "top-two" primary spots, the other being Loren Culp (R), a police officer ("Inslee"). Inslee is expected to win re-election in this solid-blue state (Goldberg). 
• West Virginia: Despite Donald Trump's massive victory and rightward swing in this once-Democratic state, Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Jim Justice won the governor's office. Less than a year later, Justice switched parties, and is now running for another term as a Republican. Kanawaha County (which contains the state capitol, Charleston) Supervisor Ben Salango narrowly won his Democratic primary against activist Stephen Smith to face Justice in the general. Polls show the incumbent with a solid lead (Izaguirre). Previously, current Senator and former Governor Joe Manchin (D) briefly considering running for his former position, but decided against it (Perano). 

Works Cited:

"2018 Gubernatorial Election Results." National Governors Association, www.nga.org/governors/election-results/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"American Samoa gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2020." Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/American_Samoa_gubernatorial_and_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2020. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Axelrod, Tal. "North Dakota Gov. Burgum set to face Democrat Shelley Lenz in gubernatorial race." The Hill, 9 Jun. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/501563-north-dakota-gubernatorial-election-set. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Barton, Ryland, et al. "Why These 5 States Hold Odd-Year Elections, Bucking The Trend." National Public Radio, 4 Nov. 2019, www.npr.org/2019/11/04/767959274/why-these-5-states-hold-odd-year-elections-bucking-the-trend. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Biello, Peter, and Josh Rogers. "N.H. Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates Head Into Final Stretch Of Primary Race." New Hampshire Public Radio, 7 Sept. 2020, www.nhpr.org/post/nh-democratic-gubernatorial-candidates-head-final-stretch-primary-race#stream/0. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Cook, Tony. "Eric Holcomb defeats John Gregg for Indiana governor." IndyStar, 8 Nov. 2016, www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/08/election-results-2016-indiana-governor-race-winner/93241306/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Decision 2020: Missouri’s gubernatorial candidates." WGEM, 10 Aug. 2020, wgem.com/2020/08/10/decision-2020-missouri-gubernatorial-election-candidates/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Drake, Phil. "Gianforte, Cooney win gubernatorial primary races." Great Falls Tribune, 2 Jun. 2020, www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2020/06/02/montana-governor-primary-2020-results-live-updates-election-updates/5308507002/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Dubail, Jean. "NH Democratic Wave Halted At Governor's Office; Sununu Re-Elected." Patch-Across New Hampshire, 5 Nov. 2018, patch.com/new-hampshire/across-nh/election-2018-new-hampshire-midterm-results. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Dudley, Graham. "2020 election: Utah governor's race - candidates, issues, key dates and debates." KSL, www.ksl.com/article/46763483/2020-election-utah-governors-race--candidates-issues-key-dates-and-debates. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Elections." National Governors Association, www.nga.org/governors/elections/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Factbox: Five U.S. gubernatorial races to watch." Reuters, 11 Sept. 2020, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-governor-factbox/factbox-five-u-s-gubernatorial-races-to-watch-idUSKBN2622BO. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Feltes to Challenge Sununu in New Hampshire Governor Race." NECN, 9 Sept. 2020, www.necn.com/news/politics/decision-2020/democratic-primary-for-nh-governor-too-early-to-call/2320852/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Fenske, Sarah. "Chris Koster Concedes Missouri Governor's Race to Eric Greitens." Riverfront Times, 8 Nov. 2016, www.riverfronttimes.com/newsblog/2016/11/08/chris-koster-concedes-missouri-governors-race-to-eric-greitens. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Florido, Adrian. "Puerto Rico's Governor Loses Primary Bid For Full Term." National Public Radio, 16 Aug. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/08/16/903111430/puerto-ricos-governor-loses-primary-bid-for-full-term. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Four teams to vie for American Samoa's governorship." Radio New Zealand, 3 Sept. 2020, www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/425146/four-teams-to-vie-for-american-samoa-s-governorship. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Gamard, Sarah. "Gov. John Carney easily defeats Democratic challenger, faces Republican who is suing him." Delaware Online, 16 Sept. 2020, www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/16/2020-elections-delaware-governor-faces-republican-who-suing-him/5790516002/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Goldberg, Michael. "The challenges facing Republican gubernatorial candidates." Washington State Wire, 4 Aug. 2020, washingtonstatewire.com/the-challenges-facing-republican-gubernatorial-candidates/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Governor of American Samoa." Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Governor_of_American_Samoa. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Graham, David. "The North Carolina Governor's Race Is Finally Over." The Atlantic, 5 Dec. 2016, www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/12/north-carolina-governor-pat-mccrory-concedes-to-roy-cooper/509603/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Gregorian, Dareh, and Ali Vitali. "Jay Inslee drops out of the 2020 presidential race." NBC News, 21 Aug. 2019, www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/jay-inslee-drops-out-2020-presidential-race-n1045066. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Huguelet, Austin. "SLU pollsters: Parson leading Galloway in Missouri governor race." Springfield News-Leader, 13 Oct. 2020, www.news-leader.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/13/missouri-governor-election-poll-says-mike-parson-leads-nicole-galloway/5978143002/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Inslee, Culp advance to general election in Washington governor's race." King 5, 30 Jul. 2020, www.king5.com/article/news/politics/elections/washington-state-candidates-governor-primary-election-2020/281-5134fd64-0e61-4f41-86c3-7a23d8c5ff69. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Izaguirre, Anthony. "Justice, Salango to face off in fall W.Va. governor's election." WHSV-3, 10 Jun. 2020, www.whsv.com/content/news/Justice-Salango-to-face-off-in-fall-WVa-governors-election-571158241.html. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Landen, Xander. "Poll: Scott leads Zuckerman 2-1 in governor’s race; Gray and Milne in tight LG contest." VTDigger, 22 Sept. 2020, vtdigger.org/2020/09/22/poll-scott-leads-zuckerman-2-1-in-governors-race-gray-and-milne-in-tight-lg-contest/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Lewis, Sophie. "Republican and Democrat running against each other for Utah governor unite for joint ad." CBS News, 20 Oct. 2020, www.cbsnews.com/news/republican-democrat-opponents-utah-governor-joint-advertisement/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

McCullum, April. "Who won the Vermont governor election and what that means." Burlington Free Press, 7 Nov. 2018, www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/vermont-midterm-election-results-what-governors-race-means-phil-scott-christine-hallquist/1806899002/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

McLaughlin, Kathleen. "Montana governor’s race epitomizes a state changing along with its politics." The Washington Post, 19 Oct. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/montana-governors-race-epitomizes-a-state-changing-along-with-its-politics/2020/10/19/665207fa-0f49-11eb-8a35-237ef1eb2ef7_story.html. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Mitchell, Lacrai, and Aaron Navarro. "North Carolina's governor race enters the homestretch after summer of coronavirus." CBS News, 8 Sept. 2020, www.cbsnews.com/news/north-carolina-governor-election-2020-mail-ballot-roy-cooper-dan-forest-coronavirus/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Newell, Jesse. "Missouri’s governor race has tightened, non-partisan politics newsletter reports." The Kansas City Star, 15 Sept. 2020, www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article245750020.html. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Nilsen, Ella. "Montana’s Senate race was supposed to be easy for Republicans. It’s a dead heat." Vox, 21 Oct. 2020, www.vox.com/21508336/montanas-senate-race-steve-bullock-daines. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Perano, Ursula. "Sen. Joe Manchin will not run for West Virginia governor in 2020." Axios, 3 Sept. 2019, www.axios.com/joe-manchin-west-virginia-governor-senate-5cc14832-29df-47ee-ba49-0cde92ebc579.html. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Ring, Wilson. "Zuckerman to face incumbent Scott in Vermont governor’s race." Associated Press, 11 Aug. 2020, apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-vermont-phil-scott-11d66432fd025d76cd5b6d2e45ea114d. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Roche, Lisa Riley. "Poll shows ‘few surprises’ in Utah governor’s race." Deseret News, 19 Oct. 2020, www.deseret.com/utah/2020/10/19/21523358/poll-governors-race-spencer-cox-leading-chris-peterson. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Rodriguez, Sabrina. "Puerto Rico governor endorses Trump." Politico, 6 Oct. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/10/06/puerto-rico-governor-endorses-trump-426926. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Romo, Vanessa. "Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens Resigns." National Public Radio, 29 May 2020, www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/29/615295346/missouri-gov-eric-greitens-resigns. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Seddiq, Oma. "What you need to know about North Carolina's governor race between Roy Cooper and Dan Forest." Business Insider, 9 Oct. 2020, www.businessinsider.com/roy-cooper-vs-dan-forest-north-carolina-governor-election-2020. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"The 10 Most Popular and Unpopular Governors." Morning Consult, morningconsult.com/governor-rankings/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Vega, Mivette. "Meet Puerto Rico’s Candidates for Governor." The Americano News, 17 Sept. 2020, theamericanonews.com/2020/09/17/puerto-rico-candidates-for-governor/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Wheeler, Lydia. "Sununu wins reelection in New Hampshire governor race." The Hill, 6 Nov. 2018, thehill.com/campaign-issues/414460-sununu-wins-reelection-in-new-hampshire-governor-race. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Winslow, Ben. "Spencer Cox wins Republican primary in Utah governor's race." FOX 13 Salt Lake City, 6 Jul. 2020, www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/ap-spencer-cox-wins-republican-primary-in-utah-governors-race. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Wren, Adam. "How Anti-Mask Politics Are Scrambling Indiana’s Governor’s Race." Politico, 17 Oct. 2020, www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/17/anti-mask-politics-scrambling-indianas-governors-race-429997. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

A Look at Nine Presidential Swing State County Bellwethers

A Look at Nine Presidential Swing State County Bellwethers

Introduction: Several weeks ago in a two-part series, I looked at a selection of House and Senate races that could serve as bellwethers for 2020's critical electoral and socio-political trends. Tonight's post expands on those posts by exploring several counties from swing states that have the potential to tell the story of the 2020 Presidential Election, regardless of the final result. Like before, each county has listed in parenthesis the respective question or trend that it will likely answer.  

Critical Swing-State Counties to Watch:

• Arizona: 
• Maricopa County (Will Sun Belt Hispanic voters turn out for Biden?): For the last three cycles, Arizona's Maricopa County, which contains almost 60% of the state's voters, has been the most-populated American county to vote Republican (Kondik et al., Wheel). Maricopa County has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Harry Truman, but going into the 2016 cycle, this was speculated to be a place that Hillary Clinton had the potential to flip because of its large Hispanic population and sizable number of moderate suburban voters (Wheel). While Maricopa still voted for Trump in 2016, signs are increasingly pointing to 2020 being the year it finally flips blue. Most notably, as part of her 2018 statewide victory, Democratic Senate candidate Kyrsten Sinema (D)'s (the first Democratic Senator in Arizona since 1988) statewide victory relied heavily on winning Maricopa by 60,000 votes (Dias and Steinhauer; Rothenberg). If Biden is to win here, not only will he have to flip a significant number of moderate educated White voters, but he will also have to ensure high turnout and margins among Hispanics. Last time, Hispanics in Maricopa County comprised almost 30% of the population, but their turnout rates were low relative to other racial groups (González). In the end, while Arizona's Hispanic turnout was fairly high in 2016, it was not enough to carry the state, despite the Hispanic vote share growing from 2012 (Nuño and Wilcox-Archuleta). This time, a sizable increase in Hispanic turnout and margins for Joe Biden will likely be key if he is seeking to flip Arizona for the second time since World War II, and Maricopa will almost certainly be a part of it. 
• Florida: 
• Miami-Dade County (How will the Cuban-American population vote this year?): I may have already covered the Cuban-Americans in the original 2020 Congressional bellwether article, but this group is so critical to Florida's electoral results that it needs to be brought up again. And "so critical" is probably an understatement when considering the group's past and recent voting history relative to the Sunshine State's often razor-thin electoral results. In 2016, the Cuban-Americans vote voted for Trump by around 54%-41% (Gomez et al.), but two years later, Republican improvement among the group was likely key for Governor Ron DeSantis (R)'s and Senator Rick Scott (R)'s respective statewide victories (Garcia-Navarro). As noted on the first post, there are signs that Cuban-Americans have have generally increased their support for Trump and the Republican Party this cycle around (Sesin). As Miami-Dade County is home to the largest Cuban diaspora in the world, Biden's margins (raw votes and percent) here will tell Cuban-Americans are reverting back to the pre-Trump mean or if the Republican re-consolidation of the group will be minimal (Bump). 
• Georgia: 
• Fayette County (How much improvement room do Democrats have in traditionally-heavy Republican Sun Belt suburbs?): One of 2016's most talked-about electoral trends was the shifting of Atlanta's traditionally-Republican suburbs towards Hillary Clinton (Saporta). The former FLOTUS flipped multiple suburban counties around Atlanta that hadn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Georgia native Jimmy Carter was on the ballot (Saporta; Tierney and Weigel). Among these improvements that did not turn into wins included Fayette, a suburban county south of the Atlanta Airport that has also not voted Democratic since Carter. In 2016, Fayette voted for trump 57%-38%, much narrower than Romney's 65%-33% ("Presidential Election"). This margin narrowed further in 2018, with now-Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (R) winning it 56%-42% ("Georgia Governor"). Like the former three counties, Fayette is increasingly well-educated, and is increasingly diverse due to attracting African-American migrants (Cunningham; Joyner). While a major increase compared to Abrams will be required if Biden is to win Fayette, it should be closely-watched because out of the suburban counties around Atlanta, it was the closest county to vote Republican in 2016 and 2018 ("Georgia Governor"; "Presidential Election"). In the larger field of 2020's socio-political trends, Fayette will provide a broad picture of how high the Democrats' possible ceiling is in historically-red suburban Sun Belt areas that trended blue, but still voted Republican in 2016 and 2018. This trend is similar to the one described last time in AZ-6, a place politically-similar to Fayette County. 
• Iowa:
  
• Cerro Gordo County (Will historically-Democratic Trump-won Upper Midwest small-city counties remain Republican?): In the original post, I indicated that Iowa has the potential this year to indicate whether the Upper Midwest is truly turning more Republican or if it is still politically-flexible after Trump's 2016 gains there. Containing the 28,000-population Mason City, Cerro Gordo County voted for Obama by double digits before voting for Trump by 8% (Godden). In 2018, a good Democratic wave year, Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Fred Hubball failed to win Cerro Gordo while losing the state by 2% ("Iowa Governor"). Comparatively, in Iowa's 2014 Senate election, Democratic candidate Bruce Braley won Cerro Gordo by 8% despite losing the state by 9% ("Iowa Election"). The 2016 and 2018 results seem to indicate at least a semi-permanent Republican trend for counties like Cerro Gordo in the Upper Midwest. Yet, there are good arguments that recent events could help both Trump or Biden win the state. On Biden's end, the effects of the trade war have extensively hurt rural and small-town Iowa, and this is something that has weighed heavily on many Iowa voters who went for Trump in 2016 (Polsanek). Yet, President Trump has also taken the time to emphasize to rural Midwestern voters his non-trade war trade policies, such as reforming NAFTA and coming up with a long-term trade deal with China (Pramuk; Rodeiguez). Another more recent variable has been COVID-19's extensive negative effects on rural Iowa communities, which has reportedly caused Iowa's 2016 nonvoters and Obama-Trump voters to consider voting for Biden this time (Finnegan and Mehta). Considering all of these facts, Cerro Gordo County's voting results relative to the state, region, and nation will help truly indicate if Trump's 2016 surge here was a one-time event or part of a longer-term pro-Republican trend. 
• North Carolina:
• Robeson County (Will Southern rural nonwhite voters turn out for Biden?): Located in South-Central North Carolina, this low-income rural county is very diverse, home to a significant proportion of Native-Americans and African-American voters, but a sizeable population of White voters as well (Woolverton). As profiled on the last bellwether post, Native American voting patterns here are critical due to the prominent Lumbee Tribe historically being politically-moderate and open to Republican policy ideas (Coleman; Woolverton). In 2016, many of Trump's ideas and statements, especially trade, resonated with Lumbee voters, who have seen economic stagnation as older industries have moved-out (Campbell; Woolverton). Meanwhile, African-American turnout in North Carolina dropped in 2016 compared to 2012, which might have stifled Hillary Clinton's attempt to win the state (Funk). This combination of factors led to Trump flipping this longtime Democratic county after it voted for Obama by almost 18% (Campbell). Going into this year's election, Robeson has been notated as a critical county once again for both sides, especially Biden. Recently, Biden endorsed giving federal recognition to the Lumbee Nation should he get elected, something that could benefit the tribe, and potentially lead to tribal members to consider voting for Biden (Woolverton). Based on the above facts, Robeson has the potential to tell what minority turnout in the rural South will look like, which will be more critical in Georgia and multiple close (or potentially-close) Southern Senate races. 
• Ohio:
• Portage County (Can Biden successfully replicate the Obama coalition?): Aside from Iowa, no other state swung as sharp towards Trump than Ohio, as Portage County, a post- Bill Clinton blue county, was carried by Trump by just under 10% ("Presidential Election"). In addition to a significant number of unionized blue-collar voters, this county also contains Kent State University's 20,000 students (Barry), two significant Obama-era coalition groups (Halpin and Teixeira). These two groups heavily supported Obama in his two elections, but the coalition fractured in 2016, with a sizeable chunk of the former flipping to Trump, and even many young working-class White voters also becoming more Republican (Barry; Cohn). Yet, Portage voted narrowly for now-Ohio Governor Mike deWine (R) in 2018, a good Democratic year ("Ohio Governor"), although popular Senator Sherrod Brown (D) simultaneously won Portage by 7% ("Ohio Senate"). Polls have shown that Biden appears to be performing better than Clinton among blue-collar White working-class voters, a prominent group in Portage (Barry; Galston; Siders). Meanwhile, student turnout here could be negatively impacted by COVID-19-related measures, especially due to the mass introduction of remote schooling. Combined, Portage (along with similar Wood County near Toledo) will tell if Obama's Ohio coalition will come back together this year for Biden, or if Trump's gains among blue-collar voters in the Rust Belt may be permanent. 
• Pennsylvania: 
• Lackawanna County (After almost voting for Trump, will historically-Democratic blue-collar medium-sized cities swing back to Biden?): I believe that no place in 2016 arguably better encapsulates what went wrong for Hillary Clinton than Pennsylvania's Lackawanna County, containing Joe Biden's birthplace of Scranton (Prose). This historically-unionized blue collar locale had been reliably Democratic for many years, but swung almost 25% towards Trump in 2016, voting for Clinton by 3% after Obama won by 28% (Terruso). Like with other similar places in the Midwest and Rust Belt, economic stagnation and a general feeling of being left-behind by the modern economy have been cited as significant reasons for Trump's surge here (Kraus; Vickers). Yet, as noted in Portage, OH's listing above, polling has indicated that Biden is running ahead of Clinton among blue-collar White working class voters (Galston; Siders), a group prominent in Lackawanna (Terruso). On the other hand, there are other signs that Trump's 2016 support is likely not his ceiling, and that Lackawanna may be close once again (Terruso). In addition to telling as to whether longtime Democratic blue-collar locales like Lackawanna will show a Republican regression, if Trump were to improve in, and win Lackawanna, it would be a major symbolic victory due to Lackawanna containing Biden's hometown. 
• Texas: 
• Tarrant County (Will any counties with over 1 million people vote for Trump?): As noted above, Arizona's Maricopa County has been one of the few counties with over a million people to consistently vote Republican in presidential elections until recently. Tarrant County (home of Fort Worth and numerous DFW Metroplex suburbs) currently falls as the second-most Republican county based on 2016 results (Wheel). Yet, even if Tarrant takes the most-populated Republican county title from Maricopa this year, the time it holds that title is likely to be short. Like Maricopa, Tarrant has also shifted less and less red in recent cycles, with potential for it to shift even more towards purple, even light-blue (Wilson). To show how much it has shifted in the Trump era, Hillary Clinton lost Tarrant by 8% after Obama lost by 16% (Wheel). In 2018, Democratic Senate Candidate Beto o'Rourke narrowly won Tarrant as he came very close to besting Senator Ted Cruz (R) (Smith and Tinsley). In 2016, when Texas was considered a possible competitive state going into before election day, National Public Radio's pre-election bellwether assessment highlighted Tarrant as a critical county Clinton would have to win if she were to take the Lone Star State (Montanaro). By extension, and especially considering o'Rourke's 2018 result, if Biden is to win Texas, Tarrant will be a crucial part of said win, and yet (Smith and Tinsley), will also reveal if any highly-populated counties are still open to voting Republican in the Trump era. 
• Wisconsin:
• Milwaukee County (Will the 2020 urban Black vote look like 2016 or 2012/2008?): Aside from discussion of Donald Trump's significant gains among White working-class voters throughout Midwest and Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, another of 2016's most talked-about political trends was a decline in urban African-American turnout. In particular, several studies have been done into Milwaukee's urban Black vote, whose turnout declined significantly from 2012, and may have denied Hillary Clinton the state (Sommerhauser). Among the factors that may have caused this include Wisconsin's voter ID laws making it more difficult for urban low-income Black voters to vote (Sommerhauser), general disillusionment with 2016's national politics, and disillusionment with the Obama administration over stagnant post-Recession economic conditions in urban Black neighborhoods (Singal). While Wisconsin's rural areas will be critical for Joe Biden to claw back in for a statewide victory, Democrats will have to increase urban Black turnout in Milwaukee from 2016, something that Milwaukee County (which is majority-Black) is likely to reveal. 

Honorable Mentions: (County features) (Presidential electoral history and reasons for importance)

• Arizona:
• Pima County (Tucson; significant Hispanic, retiree, and student populations) (increasingly-blue county; exact margins matter)
• Florida:
• Osceola County (Kissimmee; large Puerto Rican population) (increasingly-blue county, exact margins and turnout matter)
• Iowa:
• Dubuque County (Dubuque; historically-Catholic blue-collar locale) (longtime Democratic-narrow Trump county)
• Michigan:
• Saginaw County (Saginaw; historical blue-collar industrial county) (longtime modest Democratic-narrow Trump county)
• Minnesota:
• St. Louis County (Duluth; historical blue-collar mining and industrial county) (longtime Democratic county; voted for Clinton, but swung heavily from Obama '12)
• New Hampshire: 
• Hillsborough County (Manchester/Nashua; wealthy Boston exurbs) (narrow Obama-narrow Trump county)
• North Carolina:
• New Hanover County (Wilmington; significant retiree and middle-class population) (longtime light-red county; voted narrowly for McCain, Romney, and Trump)
• Texas: 
• Southern Texas/Rio Grande Valley counties (Group of longtime-Democratic, majority-Hispanic counties) (voted for Clinton, generally underperformed compared to Obama; margins and turnout matter) 
• Utah: 
• Weber County (Ogden; Salt Lake City exurbs) (historically-Republican, Trump-won county with significant student population and Trump-skeptical Mormons)
• Wisconsin:
• Kenosha County (Kenosha; blue-collar industrial city) (longtime Democratic county; voted narrowly for Trump)

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