The San Joaquin Valley Electoral Politics Project, Part 3: 1998-2018 Senate Results
Introduction: In the last two editions of the San Joaquin Electoral Politics Project, I discussed post-2010 House and Gubernatorial election results from the San Joaquin Valley. Tonight's post will continue exploring San Joaquin Valley modern Federal election politics with a look into U.S. Senate election results over a twenty-year period from 1998 through 2018.
1998-2018 Senators and Senate Elections: Like the other 49 states, California has two Senators in Washington, D.C. that are elected on 6-year terms. Of California's Senators, one is in Class 1 (last election in 2018), and the other in Class 3 (last election in 2016) (Pittman). Table 1 below displays the history of Senate representation in California per class and Congress, with election years noted.
Table 1 below summarizes California's representation in the United States Senate in the time period covered by this post. From 1998 through now, the Class 1 seat has been held by ex-San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein (D). Former House member Barbara Boxer held the Class 3 seat from 1998 to 2016, when she chose to retire. Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) was elected in 2016 to replace Boxer. Note that as of the time that this post is being written, Harris is Democratic Presidential Nominee Joe Biden's Vice-Presidential candidate. Should the Biden-Harris ticket win this November, Harris will resign her Senate seat before the new Congress begins in early January. Governor Gavin Newsom (D) would appoint a replacement, who would serve out the remaining term until 2022, when the seat is next up for re-election (Christopher).
Table 1: California Senators, 1999-2021
Sources: California Certified Statement of Vote, California Secretary of State: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2018. All were separate documents.
The results and analysis part below is split into two parts, the first covering Senate elections from 1998 to 2012 (1998, 2000, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2012), where at least one Democrat and Republican were nominated for, and ran in the general election. The second part will cover 2016 and 2018, which featured two Democrats in the general election as a result of California's "top two" primary system.
Methodology: Like the first two posts, 1998-2018 election results were all extracted from California's Secretary of State website, with the specific source links and pages listed below. Winning margins and winners per county were manually calculated.
1998-2010 Multi-Party San Joaquin Valley Senate Results:
Table 2: 1998-2012 San Joaquin Valley Senate Results by County
1998 (Class 3): Coming into her first re-election, Senator Boxer faced Republican Matt Fong ("Statement of Vote," 1998, 25-27). While Boxer secured a second term on election night, Fong won the San Joaquin Valley 53%-43%, and all counties save Merced, which she won narrowly.
2000 (Class 1): Coinciding with the contentious 2000 presidential election was Sen. Feinstein's bid for a second full term. Running against Republican Tom Campbell, Feinstein easily won re-election 56%-37% ("Statement of Vote," 2000, xxii). As part of her victory, Feinstein won the Valley 49%-44% against Campbell. In addition to the now-blue San Joaquin and Merced Counties, Feinstein also won Stanislaus and Fresno Counties, the latter by a 12% margin, something no Federal-level statewide Democrat has achieved since. Feinstein also performed well in the "Southern Three," winning Kings County by 4%, and losing Tulare and Kern by less than 10% each, which trended more Republican in her future two-party Senate elections. This Senate election represents the peak of Democratic electoral results in the Valley, as no Federal-level Democratic statewide candidates have won Kings County since, or performed as well as Feinstein did in Tulare, Kings, Kern, Madera, and Fresno counties.
2004 (Class 3): Just as President George W. Bush won a second presidential term, Sen. Boxer won a third Senate term of her own by a 20% statewide margin. While she lost the San Joaquin Valley again, the margin was closer than 1998 (7% Republican win in 2004 versus 9% in 1998). Nonetheless, the only counties she won were San Joaquin and Merced, while Fresno and Stanislaus voted for Republican Bill Jones ("Statement of Vote," 2004, 7-9) by 3% and 6%, respectively. Compared to Feinstein's 2000 re-election and her 1998 re-election, Boxer declined in Tulare and Kings, and improved slightly in Kern, thus beginning the process of cementing the "Southern Three" as a Republican stronghold in Senate elections.
2006 (Class 1): As part of the Democratic midterm wave of 2006, Sen. Feinstein won another term against Republican Dick Mountjoy by a 24% statewide margin ("Statement of Vote," 2006, xix). Despite this, the San Joaquin Valley began to slip away from her, with Kings voting for Mountjoy by 1%, and Kern and Tulare voting for Mountjoy by at least 10%, continuing the Republican Senate solidification of the region that began two years prior. Otherwise, Feinstein won the "Northern Three" and Fresno Counties, contributing to a narrow victory (48%-47%) in the San Joaquin Valley.
2010 (Class 3): Two years after Barack Obama's historic presidential election, the tables turned on the Democrats, and even battle-tested Sen. Boxer was predicted to face a competitive re-election going into the 2010 midterms (Reston). The Republicans nominated (then) Hewlett-Packard CEO (and 2016 Republican presidential primary candidate) Carly Fiorina, who was deemed by pundits to be a strong candidate with a realistic chance of winning back the Golden State's Class 3 seat (Reston). A controversial comment Sen. Boxer made at a Senate hearing (where she told a testifying Brigadier General to call her "Senator" when he addressed the Senator as "Ma'am") was extensively used by Fiorina's campaign against the incumbent (Sabato). Months away from the election, polls were showing Fiorina and Boxer in a close battle, reinforcing the idea that Boxer was vulnerable (Garofoli). The tide turned by election day, with the incumbent Senator re-gaining momentum, and eventually winning the race by 10%, solidifying California's Democratic dominance even in an otherwise punishing midterm. Nonetheless, Fiorina posted the best results for a Republican Senate candidate in the San Joaquin Valley since 1998, winning the region by 20%, with every county voting for the tech CEO. Even now-blue Merced County gave Fiorina a 12% winning margin, while she achieved 30%+ winning margins in the "Southern Three."
2012 (Class 1): As of 2018, this is the last California Senate election featuring a Democrat and a Republican candidate each in the general election, and the first under the previously-discussed "Top 2" system. In facing Republican Elizabeth Emken, Sen. Feinstein won her largest victory of her career, sweeping the state by 25% ("Statement of Vote," 2012, 7). Despite this, Feinstein lost the San Joaquin Valley by 1.3%. The county map was unchanged from 2012, with Feinstein winning the "Northern Three" and Fresno Counties, while Emken won Madera and the "Southern Three" counties. Yet, even in the counties she won, the Democratic decline continued, with Fresno County swinging 5% towards the Republican after voting for Feinstein by 8% and 12% in the last two elections, and the "Southern Three" moving more Republican, especially Kings.
2016-2018 Unipartisan San Joaquin Valley Senate Results:
Table 3: 2016 and 2018 San Joaquin Valley Senate Results by County
2016 (Class 3): Going into 2016, Sen. Boxer announced her retirement from the Senate. For the first time under the post-2010 "top two" primary system, two Democrats made it out of the "jungle primary" (where all candidates appear on one primary ballot, and the top two go the general). The two general election candidates were Attorney General Kamala Harris and Southern California Representative Loretta Sanchez (Medina). In the general election, Harris won the state and the seat, and took the San Joaquin Valley 53%-47%. Sanchez narrowly won Madera, Fresno, and Kern counties, and came very close in Merced and Tulare. Harris won San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Kings, and Tulare, with the first two providing wide victories. Considering that Hispanic voters (esp. Democratic-leaning ones) supported Sanchez ("Exit Polls 2016-California"), it is no surprise that she performed well in majority-Hispanic portions of the Valley.
2018 (Class 1): Like 2016, no Republican candidate made it past the "jungle primary" to the general election. Unlike 2016, incumbent Sen. Feinstein ran for another term, despite her advanced age. Her main challenger was Hispanic State Senate Pro Tempore Kevin De Leon (Catanese). Feinstein won another term, but lost the San Joaquin Valley to de Leon by a wide margin, 56%-44%. As part of his defeat, de Leon won every San Joaquin Valley county, with only San Joaquin, Merced, and Fresno counties being closer than 10%.
Conclusion: One of the most notable San Joaquin Valley Senate election trends is that in elections with a Democrat and Republican, Sen. Feinstein always performed better than Sen. Boxer, even in higher-turnout presidential election years. Yet, in the last two-party Senate elections in both Classes, the San Joaquin Valley continued to trend more Republican, especially Class 1. Feinstein's 2000 performance in the "Southern Three" stands out as a unique result, as the area is otherwise very Republican and conservative. On the other hand, Boxer was never able to win any counties save San Joaquin and Merced, which seems to indicate that her appeal in the Valley was far less than Feinstein's.
Ever since California began having two Democrats make it to the general election, there seem to be no clear trends due to the limited number of elections to off of, but both statewide losers seemed to do fairly well in the Valley, especially de Leon. This may be the result of the fact that both losers (Sanchez and de Leon) were Hispanic, and thus appealed well to the Valley's extensive Hispanic population. California Senate exit polls in 2016 and 2018 indicated that a majority of Latino voters went for the Hispanic candidate in both races ("Exit Polls 2016-California"; "Exit Polls 2018-California"). Another factor that could have been at play is the possibility that the Senate voting populaces were overwhelmingly Democratic in both years as a result of Republicans staying out of the Senate elections due to the lack of a Republican general election nominee (Kilgore). Furthermore, it has also been speculated that many Republicans who did vote lined up behind the underdog or challenger (especially in 2018) as opposition to the incumbent or favored candidate (Feinstein and Harris) rather than actually supporting the opponent (Kilgore). The 2016 exit polls showed that a majority of Republican Senate voters went for Sanchez in the Senate race ("Exit Polls 2016-California), while 60% voted for de Leon in 2018 ("Exit Polls 2018-California"). I was not able to test either of these theories for this post in regards to the San Joaquin Valley vote, but may go back to it in the future.
Data Sources:
"Statement of Vote: November 3, 1998 General Election." California Secretary of State Bill Jones, 12 Dec. 2000, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov//sov/1998-general/sov1998-general.pdf, 25-27. Accessed 8 Sept. 2020.
"Statement of Vote: November 7, 2000 General Election." California Secretary of State Bill Jones, 15 Dec. 2000, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2000-general/sov-complete.pdf, 7-11. Accessed 8 Sept. 2020.
"Statement of Vote: November 2, 2004 General Election." California Secretary of State Kevin Shelley, 10 Dec. 2004, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2004-general/sov_2004_entire.pdf, 7-9. Accessed 8 Sept. 2020.
"Statement of Vote: November 7, 2006 General Election." California Secretary of State Bruce McPherson, 16 Dec. 2006, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2006-general/complete_sov.pdf, 7-9. Accessed 8 Sept. 2020.
"Statement of Vote: November 2, 2010 General Election." California Secretary of State Debra Bowen, 6 Jan. 2011, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2010-general/complete-sov.pdf, 52-57. Accessed 8 Sept. 2020.
"Statement of Vote: November 6, 2012 General Election." California Secretary of State Debra Bowen, 6 Jan. 2011, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2012-general/sov-complete.pdf, 23-25. Accessed 8 Sept. 2020.
"Statement of Vote: November 6, 2016 General Election." California Secretary of State Alex Padilla, 16 Dec. 2016, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2016-general/sov/2016-complete-sov.pdf, 23-25. Accessed 8 Sept. 2020.
"Statement of Vote: November 8, 2018 General Election." California Secretary of State Alex Padilla, 14 Dec. 2018, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2018-general/sov/2018-complete-sov.pdf, 45-47. Accessed 8 Sept. 2020.
Works Cited:
"California Senate 2010." Sabato's Crystal Ball, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/senate/california-senate-2010/. Accessed 10 Sept. 2020.
Catanese, David. "A Race Ahead of His Time: Kevin de Leon looks like the future of California politics. But he may have moved too soon." US News and World Report, 29 Jun. 2018, www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2018-06-29/kevin-de-leons-senate-race-ahead-of-his-time-in-california. Acessed 10 Sept. 2020.
Christopher, Ben. "The veepstakes are over — now whom might Newsom pick to replace Kamala Harris in Senate?." Cal Matters, 11 Aug. 2020, calmatters.org/politics/2020/08/kamala-harris-replacement-newsom-california-senate/. Accessed 10 Sept. 2020.
"Exit Polls 2016-California Senate." CNN, 9 Nov. 2016, www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/california/senate. Accessed 10 Sept. 2020.
"Exit Polls 2018-California Senate." CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/california/senate. Accessed 10 Sept. 2020.
Garofoli, Joe. "Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina in Senate race." SF Gate, 3 Nov. 2010, www.sfgate.com/politics/joegarofoli/article/Barbara-Boxer-defeats-Carly-Fiorina-in-Senate-race-3167710.php. Accessed 10 Sept. 2020.
Kilgore, Ed. "Republican Voters Are Sitting Out California’s Senate Race." Intelligencer, The New Yorker Magazine, 26 July. 2018, nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/07/republican-voters-are-sitting-out-californias-senate-race.html. Accessed 10 Sept. 2020.
Medina, Jennifer. "California Senate Race Is a Tale of Diversity and a Flailing G.O.P." New York Times, 4 Jun. 2016, www.nytimes.com/2016/06/05/us/california-senate-race-is-a-tale-of-diversity-and-a-flailing-gop.html. Accessed 10 Sept. 2020.
Pittman, Travis. "The US Senate is divided into classes: What that means." ABC10, 16 Oct. 2018, www.abc10.com/article/news/nation-world/the-us-senate-is-divided-into-classes-what-that-means/103-605093800. Accessed 10 Sept. 2020.
Reston, Maeve. " Barbara Boxer overcame several hurdles to defeat Carly Fiorina in Senate race." Los Angeles Times, 4 Nov. 2010, www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2010-nov-04-la-me-1104-senate-20101104-story.html. Accessed 10 Sept. 2020.
Sabato, Larry. "MAY SENATE UPDATE." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 20 May 2010, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010052001/. Accessed 10 Sept. 2020.
Nathan Parmeter
Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record
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