The Remaining Federal Races without a projected winner

The Remaining Federal Races without a projected winner

Introduction: At this moment, 16 days have passed since polls closed on the 2020 Federal elections here in the United States, and like most election cycles, there are still some races without a projected winner. Today's post will briefly go over which elections do not have a projected winner as of publication time (8pm PST on 11/19/2020), most of which are either still counting ballots or are awaiting the results of post-election procedures (e.g. recounts). 

Senate:

• Georgia Senate (both): As detailed in Sunday's post, the final results, including the winners of Georgia's two Senate races, await the January 5th, 2021 runoffs. 

House: Like with Georgia's electoral votes, there are several House races that are projected by some outlets but not by all. The ones listed below do not have a projected winner by any major outlet as of publication time (9pm PST on 11/19/2020). 

• California 21: During the last House cycle, Democrat T.J. Cox narrowly flipped this normally heavily-Democratic seat after news outlets had initially projected Republican incumbent David Valadao the winner based on election night returns ((Rakich; White)). This flip occurred because of the previously-discussed "blue shift" effect where mail ballots skewed more Democratic because their voting groups (e.g. students, working-class people) are more likely to vote-by-mail. In this year's rematch, Valadao is currently leading by just over 1% and 1,800 votes, with ballots still being counted throughout the district (@rpyers, "Fresno County"). 
• California 25: In one of the most-watched House races of the year because of its recent background, this election was a rematch from the June special election that witnessed Republican Mike Garcia flip back this suburban seat after it initially flipped from red to blue in 2018. However, 2018 freshman winner Katie Hill (D) was forced to resign due to a major scandal that surfaced in October 2019. Democrat Christy Smith is currently trailing Garcia by less than 500 votes (Kisken). Around 65,000 votes remain in Los Angeles County (part of which is in CA-25), and several hundred more in the district's portion of Ventura County (@rpyers, "L.A. County"). 
• Iowa 2: This open seat is likely to be the closest House race of the year in terms of raw votes, and possibly one of the closest in a while. At the time of this article's publication, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks (try saying it 10 times fast) is leading by 47 votes against Democrat Rita Hart. Hart's campaign requested a district-wide machine recount, which began several days ago, and could take until the end of the month to conduct (Gruber-Miller). 
• Louisiana 5: In similarity to Georgia, Louisiana requires a candidate to receive a majority either in the November "jungle primary" or a runoff to win (similar to Georgia's special election). In this open seat race, no candidate achieved that threshold, resulting in Republicans Lance Harris and Luke Letlow heading to the December 5th runoff (Hilburn). Partisanship-wise, this seat will be a Republican hold regardless of the runoff result. 
• New York 22: In my last post prior to Election Day, I identified 2018 freshman Anthony Brindisi (D) as a race to closely watch due to his narrow 2018 winning margin and him sitting in a very Republican seat. In another 2018 rematch, Brindisi is facing ex-Representative Claudia Tenney (R), whom he narrowly defeated two years ago. A few hours ago, a significant release of ballot results from one county narrowed Tenney's lead to an estimated 75 votes, with additional ballots left to count throughout the district (@Redistrict, "BREAKING"). Since, that estimate has been modified to a 106 vote margin in Tenney's favor (@Redistrict, "New"). 

Works Cited:

Gruber-Miller, Stephen. "'A great opportunity in democracy': Recount begins in Iowa 2nd Congressional District race." Des Moines Register, 17 Nov. 2020, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/17/iowa-congressional-race-between-rita-hart-mariannette-miller-meeks-recounts-begin/6319326002/. Accessed 19 Nov. 2020. 

Hilburn, Greg. "Fellow Republicans Lance Harris, Luke Letlow launch attacks in Louisiana congressional race." Monroe News-Star, 18 Nov. 2020, www.thenewsstar.com/story/news/2020/11/18/republicans-lance-harris-luke-letlow-launch-attacks-louisiana-congressional-race/6337940002/. Accessed 19 Nov. 2020. 

Kisken, Tom. "25th Congressional District election results: Republican Garcia leads Smith by 422 votes." Ventura County Star, 17 Nov. 2020, www.vcstar.com/story/news/local/2020/11/17/mike-garcia-christy-smith-stay-near-tie-25th-congressional-district/6310599002/. Accessed 19 Nov. 2020. 

Rakich, Nathaniel. "The Last Unresolved House Race Of 2018." FiveThirtyEight, 27 Nov. 2018, fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-last-unresolved-house-race-of-2018/. Accessed 19 Nov. 2020. 

White, Jeremy. "Dems flip another California district after Valadao concedes." Politico, 6 Dec. 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/12/06/tj-cox-wins-california-house-21-1025859. Accessed 19 Nov. 2020. 

@Redistrict. "BREAKING: source in #NY22 just relayed the Chenango Co. absentee/affidavit/overseas totals...Brindisi (D) 3,290 (64.6%) Tenney (R) 1,448 (28.4%) Per source, Claudia Tenney (R)'s #NY22 lead is now just *75 votes* and it's unclear what other ballots remain." Twitter, 19 Nov. 2020, 1:11pm, twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329532743122882563. 

---. "New: after conferring w/ all #NY22 sources, here's my latest count...Tenney (R) 155,412 Brindisi (D) 155,306 That's a margin of *106 votes,* and it's unclear what remains outstanding. Some ballots under challenge are included in this count, and totals are subject to change." Twitter, 19 Nov. 2020, 2:41pm, twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329555520311660546. 

@rpyers. "Fresno County updates, adding 529 votes in #CA21 that break 50.85%/49.15% for incumbent Democrat @TJCoxCongress, cutting Republican @dgvaladao's lead down by 9 votes to a new lead of 1,796." Twitter, 18 Nov. 2020, 2:59pm, twitter.com/rpyers/status/1329197458174349313. 

---. "L.A. County updates in #CA25, with 2,241 votes breaking 55.96%/44.04% in FAVOR of incumbent Republican @MikeGarcia2020, extending his lead over Democrat Christy Smith by 267 votes to a new lead of 371." Twitter, 17 Nov. 2020, 2:36pm, twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328829399471333377.

Georgia's 2021 Double Senate Runoffs: What are the possibilities?

Georgia's Double Senate Runoffs: What are the possibilities? 

Introduction: With the recent projection of Alaska's Senate race, the projected 2021 Senate includes 48 Democrats (including two independents) and 50 Republicans. However, the final 117th Senate composition will have to wait until January 5 of next year, when both of Georgia's Senate races (the regular Class 2 and the special Class 3) are decided in runoffs (Axelrod and Budryk). The stakes are very high with both runoffs, with Democrats seeing it as their last chance to win a (bare) Senate majority, and Republicans seeing it as their best opportunity to put a check on the Biden administration and Democratic-controlled House through holding the Senate (Raju et al.). 

The Candidates:

• Class 2 (Regular): The incumbent in this seat is Senator David Purdue (R), an ex-businessman and the cousin of former Governor and current Department of Agriculture Secretary Sonny Purdue (R). Purdue won his first term in 2014 against nonprofit leader Michelle Nunn (D), the daughter of a former Senator (Leonard). The other runoff place is held by Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff (D), a former filmmaker and candidate in the widely-watched 2017 GA-6 special election (Grisales and Moore). 
• Class 3 (Special): The incumbent in this seat is Senator Kelly Loeffler (R), a former businesswoman. Senator Loeffler was appointed to this seat when ex-Senator Johnny Isakson (R) decided to resign early rather than serve the remaining term until 2022 (Breuninger and Franck). Because of his resignation, a special election was called for 2020, where all candidates (regardless of party) ran on the same ballot on Election Day, with the top two going to the January runoff (Foran). In addition to Loeffler, the other runoff candidate is Democrat Raphael Warnock, a pastor and reverend at the Ebenzer Baptist Church (the same church MLK Jr. used to attend) (Bunn). Whoever wins the runoff will serve for two years until 2022, when the seat is up for its next regular election (Breuninger and Franck). 

Possibilities and Arguments: 

• Democratic Double-Win: Probably the most notable argument suggesting a double-Democratic win in Georgia is the massive enthusiasm among anti-Trump voters that has persisted since 2016, combined with Georgia's socio-demographic and political changes. In particular, Biden's victory and Ossoff's close general election results reflect the changing nature of Atlanta's once-Republican suburbs that are becoming more diverse, young, and well-educated. These groups are also hostile to Trump's brand of Republicanism, and have been moving more blue in the last few cycles (Fausset and Lerer). Despite the disastrous year for Democrats in suburban House races nationwide, suburban GA-7 flipped blue after being the closest House race in 2018, revealing the extent of Atlanta's suburban shift (Coyne). Finally, Democrats and their associates are optimistic about these races due to the increased efforts of ex-Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in helping increase nonwhite turnout. Despite narrowly losing the 2018 gubernatorial election, Abrams has since been actively involved in voter turnout efforts, especially registering 800,000 new voters since 2018 and creating multiple nonprofits focused on increasing voter turnout (Hakim et al.). 
• Republican Double-Win: The main potential factor working in the Republicans' favor for both runoff elections is the main 2020 Republican campaign messaging, especially their framing of national Democrats, and the electoral effects it had. In particular, Democrats' poor showing in the House and multiple competitive Senate races has been attributed to Republican messages tying Democratic candidates to progressive ideas such as "Defund the Police" and "Socialism," especially in moderate suburban districts (Cillizza). In line with this theory, the massive amount of split-ticketing in suburban House districts has been attributed to a sizable chunk of voters voting against Trump specifically while remaining Republican voters otherwise (Kilgore). Finally, runoff elections in general tend to feature lower turnout in general, and especially amongst heavily Democratic voters such as African-Americans. With White voters more likely to turn out, this is something that would give any Republican candidate a natural boost in a runoff election (Hulse). 
• Split-Party Victories: In addition to double-wins by one party, it is also technically possible that either Warnock or Ossoff will win and the other loses. In the process of conducting research for this post, I was not able to find substantial discussion about such a scenario and how it could happen, but it is included as a theoretical possibility. 

Current Polling and Situation: While not much polling has been done since November 3rd, a recent Remington poll showed both races to be close, with the Republican incumbents at a slight advantage (Choi, "Voters Split"). Attention on these races have spiked, with surrogates on both sides extensively investing time and resources in the state. In particular, on the Democrats' side, Stacey Abrams (D) has been especially active on the campaign trail for Ossoff and Warnock, after her campaign efforts likely aided Biden in winning the state (Choi, "John" [sic]). Both candidates have revitalized their campaign messages to focus on local issues and avoid talking about their races' potential impact on the 2021 Senate (Mueller). On the Republicans' side, prominent Republican institutions have already gone on the offensive against the two Democrats, especially emphasizing the role of a Republican Senate in checking Biden (Raju et al.). This includes messaging connecting both candidates to "socialism," arguing that their victories would allow both "socialists" and "radicals" to dictate American public policy (Fordham; Greenwood). 

Works Cited:

Axelrod, Tal, and Zack Budryk. "Sullivan wins reelection in Alaska, giving Republicans 50 seats in Senate." The Hill, 11 Nov. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523484-sullivan-wins-reelection-in-alaska-senate-race. Accessed 14 Nov. 2020. 

Breuninger, Kevin, and Thomas Franck. "Georgia Senate special election result projected to go to a runoff between Sen. Loeffler and Democrat Warnock." CNBC, 3 Nov. 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/georgia-senate-special-election-results.html. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Bunn, Curtis. "'My ideals are driven by my faith': Raphael Warnock on his Senate runoff race." NBC News, 7 Nov. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/my-ideals-are-driven-my-faith-raphael-warnock-his-senate-n1246879. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Choi, Joseph. "John Ossoff attributes close Georgia Senate race to black voter turnout." The Hill, 15 Nov. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/526050-john-ossoff-attributes-close-georgia-senate-race-to-black-voter. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

---. "Voters split on candidates in Georgia Senate runoffs: poll." The Hill, 11 Nov. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/525516-voters-split-on-candidates-in-georgia-senate-runoffs-poll. Accessed 14 Nov. 2020. 

Cillizza, Chris. "How House Republicans shocked the political world." CNN, 6 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/11/06/politics/house-races-republicans-democrats-2020-election/index.html. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Coyne, Amanda. "Bourdeaux wins 7th Congressional District race, flipping suburban seat." Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 6 Nov. 2020, www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/bourdeaux-wins-7th-congressional-district-race-flipping-suburban-seat/JRMDDZXR5JB3RAKXUDXSRALWXQ/. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020. 

Fausset, Richard, and Lisa Lerer. "How Georgia Turned From Reliably Republican to Political Ground Zero." The New York Times, 8 Nov. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/11/08/us/politics/georgia-politics.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Foran, Clare. "Georgia Senate race heads to runoff between Loeffler and Warnock." CNN, 4 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/11/03/politics/georgia-senate-race-loeffler-warnock/index.html. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Fordham, Evie. "Perdue, Ossoff cast Georgia Senate runoff as battle for control of the nation." FOX News, 15 Nov. 2020, www.foxnews.com/politics/perdue-ossoff-georgia-senate-runoff-biden-coronavirus-aoc-socialism. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Greenwood, Max. "Republicans seek to batter Warnock ahead of Georgia runoff." The Hill, 14 Nov. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/525717-republicans-seek-to-batter-warnock-ahead-of-georgia-runoff. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Grisales, Claudia, and Elena Moore. "Georgia Senate Race Between David Perdue And Jon Ossoff Heads To A Runoff." National Public Radio, 6 Nov. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/11/06/931720639/georgia-senate-race-between-david-perdue-and-jon-ossoff-edges-closer-to-a-runoff. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Hakim, Danny, Stephanie Saul, and Glenn Thrush. "As Biden Inches Ahead in Georgia, Stacey Abrams Draws Recognition and Praise." The New York Times, 6 Nov. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/us/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Hulse, Carl. "Democrats Work to Defy History in Georgia Runoffs That Have Favored G.O.P." The New York Times, 14 Nov. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Kilgore, Ed. "Republicans Make Shocking Gains in the House." Intelligencer, New York Magazine, 4 Nov. 2020, nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/republicans-pull-off-shocking-gains-in-the-u-s-house.html. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Leonard, Kimberly. "GOP's Perdue Trounces Nunn in GA Senate Race." US News and World Report, 4 Nov. 2014, www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/11/04/david-perdue-trounces-michelle-nunn-in-georgia-senate-race. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Mueller, Eleanor. "Schumer 'not on the ballot' in Georgia Senate race, Democratic candidate says." Politico, 15 Nov. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/11/15/schumer-georgia-warnock-senate-race-436628. Accessed 15 Nov. 2020. 

Raju, Manu, Alex Rogers, and Fredreka Schouten. "GOP to argue Georgia Senate runoffs would be key to check Biden and a Democratic House." CNN, 7 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/11/06/politics/2020-election-georgia-senate-race-runoffs/index.html. Accessed 14 Nov. 2020.