The San Joaquin Valley Electoral Politics Project, Part 5: 2020 Federal Election Results
Introduction: This post was already in the preparation stage of this blog's "Assembly Line" since Election Day, but was awaiting full and complete election results from the San Joaquin Valley counties. With California's results now finalized and certified, it is time to look at this year's presidential and House election results (there was no Senate election in California this year) from the San Joaquin Valley. The bibliography below utilizes the final results from each San Joaquin County because the California Statement of Vote was not published by this post's publication time; I will update the works cited with the state-level certified results once it is published on the Secretary of State's website.
Previous Editions of The San Joaquin Electoral Politics Project: While I will not re-post content (including visuals and tables) from previous editions of this project, I will be referencing past material from Parts 2 and 4. Links to all four past editions are below:
- 8/30/2020: Part 1: 2010-2018 Gubernatorial Results
- 9/3/2020: Part 2: 2012-2018 House Results
- 9/10/2020: Part 3: 1998-2018 Senate Results
- 10/8/2020: Part 4: 2008-2016 Presidential Results
Table 1: 2020 San Joaquin Valley Combined House and Presidential Election Results
Figure 1: Presidential and Combined House Raw Vote Margins and Winners by County
Presidential Results: All votes from the eight San Joaquin Valley counties combined, projected President-Elect Joe Biden (D) narrowly won the San Joaquin Valley by 1.7% and 25,000 votes, a slight improvement over Hillary Clinton's 0.8% (8,800 votes) win four years ago. Like Clinton, Biden won the combined vote from the "Northern Three" counties and Metro Fresno, but lost the "Southern Three" while improving significantly over her performance there.
Compared to 2016, Biden improved his percentage margins in every San Joaquin Valley county except Stanislaus and Merced. Notably, Biden improved by 3-5 percent in the "Southern Three" counties of Kings, Tulare, and Kern, as well as Republican-leaning Madera. Fresno County also became slightly more Democratic, whose margin of 28,000 votes was slightly higher than Biden's Valley-wide 25,000 margin.
Table 2: 2012-2020 House Election Results by County and District
House Results: At the House-level, House Democratic candidates narrowly lost the Valley, but improved over their 51%-49% loss two years ago. The only change to the Valley's House delegation is CA-21, where ex-Rep. David Valadao (R) narrowly won back his former seat against Rep. T.J. Cox (D), who defeated Valadao two years ago ("Former House"). All other San Joaquin Valley incumbents won re-election, some improving drastically over their 2018 results. Of note is freshman Rep. Josh Harder (D)'s 11% re-election victory in CA-10, a swing of 7% after his narrow win against Rep. Jeff Denham (R) two years ago. Tabulated by county (Tables 1 and 2), the exact county distribution remains the same from 2018, and all eight San Joaquin Valley counties gave at least a plurality to the presidential and Congressional candidate(s) from the same party.
While complete presidential results broken down by Congressional district boundaries (both overall and between counties) are not available yet, some insight can be gleaned from county-wide results as to ticket-splitting in the Valley, displayed on Table 1. As part of his re-election, Rep. Harder won Stanislaus County by almost 10%, a swing of 6% from 2018, while Biden won by less than 1% there. Rep. Jim Costa (D) also outperformed Biden in Merced County as part his re-election. On the other hand, the "Southern Three," Fresno, and Madera Counties witnessed significant Biden/House Republican ticket splitting, which is especially prevalent in Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties. In particular, in Kern County, House Democratic candidates ran almost 10 points behind Biden, while Rep. Cox (D) ran 5% behind the (projected) President-Elect in Kings County.
Conclusion and Implications: While this year's election cycle is not completely "over" (since the soon-to-be-held Electoral College decides the president), the results offer some clues for potential electoral trends that could occur through the rest of the decade in the Valley. In particular, this year's results solidify the narrative that the while San Joaquin Valley remains a purple region overall, it is becoming increasingly-blue at the presidential-level, and to a lesser extent at the House-level. However, as detailed in the post examining past gubernatorial election results, the Valley continues to be more Republican-friendly at the state-level, which held true even in 2018, a Democratic wave year.
The big question going forward is how the Valley will vote in the next few cycles, which have a wide range of possibilities due to its flexible and purple nature. In particular, with the potential for the 2022 midterms to be a punishing one for Democrats, the Valley could trend back towards the Republicans, although the extent to which it could is likely to be determined by turnout levels, another currently-unknown variable significant to Valley politics. This includes at the Federal-level, as California will have an open Senate seat due to Sen. Kamala Harris (D)'s expected resignation to become Vice-President, and Governor Gavin Newsom (D)'s appointing of a replacement Senator. Finally, with post-Census redistricting around the corner, today's House districts will likely be redrawn, thus creating new opportunities and inhabitations for current incumbents and future challengers.
Election Results:
"California House Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last modified 5 Dec. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/california/house/. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020.
"CERTIFIED FINAL OFFICIAL RESULTS ON DECEMBER 3, 2020." San Joaquin County Registrar of Voters, last modified 3 Dec. 2020, www.livevoterturnout.com/SanJoaquinCA/LiveResults/en/Index_8.html. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020.
"County of Fresno Consolidated General Election November 3, 2020 Final Election Results." Fresno County County Clerk/Registrar of Voters, last modified 25 Nov. 2020, www.co.fresno.ca.us/departments/county-clerk-registrar-of-voters/election-information/election-results/results-of-november-3-2020-presidential-general-election. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020.
"County of Kings General Election-November 3, 2020 Final Official Results." County of Kings, California Elections, 30 Nov. 2020, www.countyofkings.com/home/showpublisheddocument?id=24965. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020.
"Election Summary Report-General Election-Tulare-November 03, 2020-Final Official Election Results Report." Tulare County Registrar of Voters, 25 Nov. 2020, tularecoelections.org/elections/index.cfm/registrar-of-voters/current-election-information/november-3-2020-presidential-general-election/post-election-night-results/final-official-election-night-results-report/. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020.
"Kern County Election Results-November 3, 2020 Presidential General Election." Kern County, last modified 30 Nov. 2020, kernvote.com/ElectionInformation/Results/?ID=107. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020.
"Official Election Summary of the Consolidated Presidential General Election held on November 3, 2020 in the County of Madera, State of California." VoteMadera, 25 Nov. 2020, votemadera.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Official-Final-Result-Summary-November-3-2020-General-Election.pdf. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020.
"Presidential General Election-November 3, 2020." Merced County, last modified 25 Nov. 2020, results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Merced/107145/web.264614/#/detail/0004. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020.
"Stanislaus County General Election 11/3/2020." Stanislaus County Registrar of Voters, last modified 23 Nov. 2020, www.stanvote.com/past-results/results.htm. Accessed 5 Dec. 2020.
Works Cited:
"Former House Republican flips central California seat." Associated Press, 27 Nov. 2020, apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-california-house-elections-david-valadao-e912d4a58cce739925921fd2ca28d7cc. Accessed 6 Dec. 2020.
Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record
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