Notable Longtime County Voting Streaks that Ended in 2020

Notable Longtime County Voting Streaks that Ended in 2020

Introduction: One of the main thrills of Election Night is watching the county map fill in, and especially watching which counties flip parties from the previous election. While county-level results don't always tell the full story of an election, which counties do flip can offer hints of significant regional or national trends, especially if the counties that flip sides have similar socio-demographics and/or are geographically-contiguous. This post will not cover all counties that flipped parties this year compared to 2016, but will instead go over ones that broke voting streaks of 4 cycles of more (i.e. from 2004 or earlier). 

Map 1: 2016-2020 Presidential Election County Flips

Base Map Source: Kbh3rd. "File:USA Counties with FIPS and names.svg." Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 Oct. 2018, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:USA_Counties_with_FIPS_and_names.svg. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

 

Note: The counties profiled below are notated on the map above. I do apologize for the map being a bit grainy and blurry in places, as it was originally a .svg file I filled-in with MS Paint. I was unable to find a higher-quality blank county map with a similar copyright level on Wikimedia Commons. This map was made by comparing county-level results from 2016 and 2020. 

Regarding Alaska, major news outlets (I have been using ABC News for 2020 election results, and The New York Times for 2016 election results; both links are included below) do not divide Alaska's votes by boroughs (their equivalent of counties). Anchorage flipping from red to blue was determined from an Alaskan news source. I have also heard reports from Twitter that the North Slope Borough flipped red from blue, but could not confirm this from other sources. 

Democratic County Flips:

• Anchorage, AK (Anchorage) (last voted Democratic in 1964): Alaska's largest city and main economic hub had been a Republican hold for many years, but 2020 reversed that trend, with Joe Biden becoming the first Democrat to win since LBJ (Brooks). 
• Chesterfield, VA (Richmond suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1948): While this suburban Richmond county voted for Trump's first presidential campaign, signs were building within a year that its longtime red streak was about to end. In 2017's gubernatorial election, Democrat (now-Governor) Ralph Northam narrowly won Chesterfield as he cruised to a large victory in the state ("Virginia Election Results"). 
• Deschutes, OR (Bend; Redmond) (last voted Democratic in 1992): Normally, virtually all of Eastern Oregon is dark-red and conservative, as much of the region comprises significant rural, small-town, and agricultural territory. However, Deschutes County is an exception, due to containing the relatively-liberal city of Bend, which sits at the base of the Cascades. Biden won the county 53%-45%, becoming the second Democrat to win here since LBJ (Warner). 
• Duval, FL (Jacksonville and suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1976): Like Tarrant and Maricopa (both covered below), Jacksonville, Florida's Duval County was one of the last major urban counties voting Republican in the Obama and Trump era. And like many of the other counties on this list, it voted blue in Florida's Senate and Gubernatorial elections two years ago ("National Results"), something that would be replicated at the presidential-level this year. 
• Frederick, MD (DC exurbs) (last voted Democratic in 1964): While Northern Virginia has seen a significant Democratic shift in the last few cycles, the already-blue portion of Maryland's DC/Baltimore axis has also begun to bleed into more purple/red-leaning surrounding counties. Last time, Anne Arundel County (containing Fort Meade and Maryland's capitol of Annapolis) voted Democratic for the first time since 1964 (Davis). On the other side of I-95 is Frederick County, containing the increasingly-exurban Frederick and surrounding areas, which modestly voted Republican in 2008, 2012, and 2016. In 2018, Senator Ben Cardin (D) won Frederick as he cruised to another victory in the Old Line State ("National Results"), becoming another county where the 2018 vote foreshadowed its 2020 vote. 
• Garfield, CO (Glenwood Springs) (last voted Democratic in 1992): Stretching along the Colorado River and I-70 as it begins to ascend into the Rockies, this tourist- and vacation home-heavy county flipped Democratic for the first time in almost 30 years. 
• Hays, TX (San Marcos; Texas State) (last voted Democratic in 1992): Overshadowed by Austin just to the north, this small county is also dominated by a major university (Texas State), but voted light-red or purple through Obama. However, like other counties on this list, Hays began trending blue in the Trump era, with Hillary Clinton narrowly losing Hays ("2016 Presidential", and 2018's Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial candidates both carrying the county ("National Results"). These wins culminated in Joe Biden's double-digit win of Hays (Streicher), the first in almost 30 years. 
• Inyo, CA (Bishop; Death Valley NP) (last voted Democratic in 1964): Out of all of Biden's county flips this year, Inyo County may seem like the most surprising, as it is a thinly-populated High Desert county that has voted Republican for a long time. A possible explanation: the presence of Death Valley National Park in the county attracting a significant number of tourist industry, outdoors-loving, and environmental-oriented people, who tend to vote Democratic, similar to Garfield, CO (profiled above). 
• James City, VA (Hampton Roads suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1968): Stretching through suburban territory around Williamsburg in the Hampton Roads region, James City County had not voted Democratic in almost a half-century. Like Stafford, Lexington, and Chesterfield counties, Tim Kaine (D) won James City as part of his 15-point re-election in 2018, possibly a foreshadow of this year's results ("National Results"). Even earlier, now-Governor Ralph Northam narrowly lost James City in his 2017 victory ("Virginia Election").     
• Johnson, KS (Kansas City suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1916 or 1932*): Regardless if this suburban Kansas City county last voted Democratic in 1916 or 1932 (*the close 1932 results are disputed) (Wheel), this year broke a long streak in Kansas's most-populated county that is now heavily suburban. Two years ago, Johnson County was critical in assisting now-Governor Laura Kelly (D)'s successful campaign, as she won Johnson by almost 18% against Republican Kris Kobach and Independent Greg Orman (Sentor). 
• Lynchburg, VA (Lynchburg) (last voted Democratic in 1948): Controversial for its past and current pro-Confederate associations (Gore), and home of Liberty University, this Central Virginia city broke a Republican presidential voting streak stretching back to Dwight D. Eisenhower (Oliver). 
• Maricopa, AZ (Phoenix and suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1948): Prior to Trump, Arizona's Maricopa County was among the last urban and heavily-populated counties to vote Republican, as it contains most of Phoenix's red suburbs in addition to Phoenix itself. However, this began to change in the lead-up to the 2016 election, where pundits predicted that Hillary Clinton had the potential to win the county due to its educated White and Hispanic populations, two groups thought to be hostile to Trump (Wheel). While this didn't happen, Maricopa was still very close in the end, voting for Trump by 3% ("2016 Presidential"). Two years later, now-Senator Krysten Sinema (D) won Maricopa by 60,000 votes as part of her historic victory in the Grand Canyon State (Rothenberg). Joe Biden's win of Arizona (the second since WW2) heavily relied on winning Maricopa by 3% (Cole), thus breaking its long Republican streak. 
• Morris, NJ (NYC suburbs and exurbs) (last voted Democratic in 1964): Despite suburban New Jersey's increasingly-blue shift in the post-Clinton and post-Obama eras, suburban and exurban Morris County held out, voting narrowly for McCain, Romney, and Trump 2016. This time, the tables turned, with both Biden and Senator Cory Booker (D) winning Morris as part of their statewide victories (Coughlin). 
• New Hanover, NC (Wilmington) (last voted Democratic in 1976): The ending point for Interstate 40 has historically been a Republican-leaning locale due to a significant military and retiree presence (similar to Virginia Beach, detailed below). Prior to this year's election, it was seen as a potential bellwether for the state and nation because of these demographics, especially Biden's potential strength amongst retirees and active military members (Wasserman). While North Carolina remained Republican this time, New Hanover narrowly voted for Biden after narrowly voting Republican for three cycles (Dill). 
• Riley, KS (Manhattan; Kansas State) (never voted Democratic): Kansas has been a reliably-Republican state for a long time, and Riley County, which had never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, has long symbolized this trend. However, like other places mentioned here, it was speculated that Hillary Clinton had the potential to win this county because of its highly-educated and student population, two groups hostile to Trump (Wheel). This time, it flipped and voted for Joe Biden by 2%, making history by voting for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time ever. 
• Seminole, FL (Orlando suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1948): Located north of Orlando, this suburban county had not voted blue since Harry Truman, but became more light-red during Obama's elections, and continued to shift towards the purple in 2016 and 2018. Like other similar places on this list, Biden broke its long voting streak despite the county against its overlying state (Soto and Wildman). 
• Shawnee, KS (Topeka) (last voted Democratic in 1992): Containing Kansas's state capitol, Shawnee County voted light-red in 2008, 2012, and 2016 before voting for Joe Biden, thus breaking a Republican voting streak lasting to 1996. 
• Stafford, VA (DC exurbs) (last voted Democratic in 1976): A pre-2016 election article (which I was unable to re-find for this post) described how Northern Virginia's political battle lines have changed since 2000, deeming Stafford as the new dividing point between red and blue in the Trump era. This idea became especially discussed in the lead-up to the 2017 gubernatorial election, especially considering Trump's poor performance in Northern Virginia a year prior, and the region's significant socio-demographic changes in recent years (Todd). This year's results seem to indicate that the battle line has likely shifted beyond exurban Stafford, as the county voted for Biden. Two years ago, Senator Tim Kaine (D) won Stafford as part of his 17% re-election ("National Results"). 
• Talbot, MD (Easton) (last voted Democratic in 1964): Located on the Eastern Shore across from Annapolis, this county is somewhat of an extension of the D.C. metro area. After voting Republican for almost 60 years, Talbot narrowly voted blue this time, helping power Biden's giant lead in the Old Line State (Barker). 
• Tarrant, TX (Fort Worth; DFW suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1964): Like Maricopa, Tarrant was one of the few remaining heavily-populated counties still voting Republican through Obama, as Tarrant contains both urban Fort Worth and more conservative suburbs spread throughout. Yet, Trump's regression here in 2016 and 2018 Senate candidate Beto o'Rourke's (D) narrow victory in Tarrant gave Democrats optimism that this place was ripe for the picking. Mirroring many of the other counties on this list, o'Rourke's 2018 win was replicated by the former Vice-President's narrow win of Tarrant (Kennedy). With Tarrant and Maricopa flipping blue, the most-populated county to vote Republican this year was Long Island's Suffolk County, which only voted narrowly for Trump (@Larry_Benjam1n). 
• Virginia Beach, VA (Virginia Beach) (last voted Democratic in 1964): With a heavy military presence, Virginia Beach remained a Republican hotspot for a long time, despite the county becoming more purple during and after Obama. Biden flipped Virginia Beach blue as part of his 10-point win of Virginia (Lewis). 
• Williamson, TX (Austin suburbs) (last voted Democratic in 1976): When this county last voted Democratic, it was mostly rural and exurban. Since then, Austin's suburbs have spread northward into Williamson, and many new industries (such as high-tech) have moved in, turning it into a classic "Sun Belt Suburban" county that began to trend back as young families and educated workers moved in (Linan). Like other counties on this list, Democrats' 2018 performance probably foreshadowed this year's results, as o'Rourke carried Williamson as part of his narrow loss ("National Results"). Meanwhile, 2018 Congressional candidate (this year's Senate candidate) M.J. Hegar (D) almost unseated local incumbent Rep. John Carter (R) (not the Edgar Burroughs character whose 2012 Disney adaptation was lackluster) due to narrowly winning Williamson ("Texas House"). 

Republican County Flips: 

• Alamosa, CO (Alamosa) (last voted Republican in 2004): Famous among UFO enthusiasts for being home to the high-profile "Snippy the Horse" animal mutilation case (Labato), this rural and heavily-Latino county turned red after voting against Trump four years ago (Frank and Osgood).  
• Lorain, OH (Lorain; Oberlin) (last voted Republican in 1984): This blue-collar and midle-class county heavily shifted towards Trump in 2016 while narrowly voting for Clinton (Crowe). This time, it flipped red for the first time since Ronald Reagan in 1984 (Sullivan). 
• Mahoning, OH (Youngstown) (last voted Republican in 1972): In 2016, Donald Trump's nationwide and Ohio victory witnessed once-Democratic Northeast Ohio, with its blue-collar union population, swing heavily-Republican. Like Lorain, Mahoning County, home of majority-Black Youngstown, narrowly voted for Hillary Clinton (Crowe). This year, Democratic luck here ran out, as Mahoning flipped red, leaving Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Summit (Akron) Counties as the only two blue counties left in Northeast Ohio. 
• Southern Counties: In the Southern states, Trump flipped multiple counties that had been longtime Democratic holds, all of which were either nearly or majority-minority: 
• Burke, GA (Waynesboro; >40% African-American) (last voted Republican in 2004) 
• Clarendon, SC (Manning; >50% African-American) (last voted Republican in 1972)
• Dillon, SC (Dillon; >40% African-American) (last voted Republican in 1988)
• Scotland, NC (Laurinburg; >40% Nonwhite) (last voted Republican in 1984): Southern North Carolina's Scotland County is an extension of neighboring Robeson County, which gained attention after the 2019 NC-9 special election for Republican (now) Representative) Dan Bishop's performance among Lumbee Native American voters (Coleman). In similarity to Robeson, Scotland County has a sizable Lumbee population in addition to African-American minority groups, and joined Robeson in voting for Trump after narrowly voting for Hillary Clinton four years ago (Green; Murphy). Trump performed well among the Lumbee people, a group that both he and Biden pledged to support their quest for Federal recognition (Fordham). 
• South Texas Counties: All of the following counties are combined into this category, being largely rural and majority-Latino. Trump's unexpected and massive surge among Texas Latinos significantly carved into this historically-Democratic region, which included flipping the following counties:  
• Frio, TX (Pearsall; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 2004) 
• Jim Wells, TX (Alice; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 1972)
• Kleberg, TX (Kingsville; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 2004)
• La Salle, TX (Cotulla; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 1972)
• Reeves, TX (Pecos; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 2004)
• Val Verde, TX (Del Rio; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 2004)
• Zapata, TX (Zapata; >50% Latino) (last voted Republican in 1920) (Rothschild)

Conclusion: Solely based on which counties flipped parties and broke longtime voting streaks, some of 2020's main electoral trends clearly stand out. In particular, most of the counties Biden flipped blue from 2016 were educated, middle-class-to-affluent, and either largely suburban, home to major schools, tourist hotspots, and/or liberal retiree populations. On the Republican end, Trump continued to surge in blue-collar and rural America, especially in the Midwest and South. The significant surge among South Texas Latinos (discussed in my immediate post-election analysis) stands out, as does Trump's surge in Southern counties with a slight majority or just-under-majority of nonwhite voters, reflecting the effects of this year's rural GOP surge. 

Election Results:

"2016 Presidential Election Results." The New York Times, last modified 9 Aug. 2017, www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

"2020 US Presidential Election Results: Live Map." ABC News, last modified 9 Dec. 2020, abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map/. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

Bloch, Matthew, et al. "An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2016 Presidential Election." The New York Times, last modified 25 Jul. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html. Accessed 10 Dec. 2020. 

"National Results." CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2018/results. Accessed 9 Dec. 2020. 

• 2018 Election Results

Sullivan, Robert David. "How the red and blue map evolved over the past century." America: The Jesuit Review, 29 Jun. 2016, www.americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/how-red-and-blue-map-evolved-over-past-century. Accessed 7 Nov. 2020. 

• Used for historical election data on the last time individual counties voted for one of the two main parties in a presidential election. 

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Suffolk, NY (26th) was the most popolous red county. Than Collin, TX (45th), Kern, CA (61st), Macomb, MI (65th), Denton, TX (67th), Oklahoma (80th) were red. @Redistrict @JMilesColeman

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     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record