Senators Remaining in 2021 from the 2009 ACA vote
Introduction: Today's post will be relatively short and simple, as I have been working on several large post-election pieces that are awaiting full results in multiple states that are still counting ballots. The idea for this post for this post came from randomly browsing C-SPAN, which led me to watch a video clip from 2009 when the U.S. Senate voted on the final Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), which is a significant moment in the Obama presidency. After watching the roll call vote, I decided to calculate and tabulate the status of Senators who were in Congress at the time to see how many will remain when the next Congress takes office next January, and how much turnover there has been since the ACA passed.
The Original Senate Vote: Table 1 displays the original Senate vote on the Affordable Care Act. It is evident that the vote was very polarized along partisan lines, with all 60 Democrats (including two Independents in the Democratic caucus (Enda; Hayes)) voting for it, and 39 Republicans voting against it. One Republican, Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY), did not vote ("Roll Call"). Even if the former professional baseball player had voted for it, he subsequently retired from Congress the following year (Cohen).
Table 1: ACA Final Senate Vote
Data Source: "Roll Call Vote 111th Congress - 1st Session-H.R. 3590 (Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act)" United States Senate, 24 Dec. 2009, www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=111&session=1&vote=00396. Accessed 22 Nov. 2020.
Note: Both Independents at the time (Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT)) caucused with the Democratic Party at the time (Enda; Hayes).
Remaining Senators: When the 117th Congress takes their seats next January, only 37 Senators who were present at the ACA vote will remain in the Senate. Table 2 breaks down the current status of all of the Senators present at the ACA vote. Between both parties in Congress, about over one-third of then-Senators are still present, totaling 37 of 100 Senators. As of the next Congress, only 14 Republicans and 22 Democrats will remain from the ACA vote, as well as Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who continues to caucus with the Democrats (Hayes). During the 2020 cycle, four Senators present during the ACA vote retired; Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) (Taylor), Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY) (Axelrod), Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) (Arkin), and Sen. Tom Udall (D-NM) (Lesniewski).
Table 2: 117th Congress Senators Present during the ACA Vote
Conclusion: Examining which Senators from the Affordable Care Act vote will remain in the 117th Congress reveals one major trend: There has been significant turnover in the post-ACA era, as only one-third still remain from that historic vote. This number will continue to decline in the next cycle, as Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), who voted no on the ACA, is retiring in 2022 (recently, outgoing President Trump's daughter-in-law Lara is thinking of running for the seat) (Arkin et al.). Furthermore, nay-voting Alabama Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL), a former Democrat, will announce whether he will run for another term in 2022 soon, as he has been speculated to be a likely retiree due to his age and long tenure (Beavers). This blog will not speculate on other potential future retirements (especially beyond 2022) unless verifiable and credible sources could be found for such speculation, but it is fair to say that the number of remaining Senators will continue to decline in future cycles as members retire and/or decide to take on different experiences elsewhere.
Data Sources:
"Roll Call Vote 111th Congress - 1st Session-H.R. 3590 (Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act)" United States Senate, 24 Dec. 2009, www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=111&session=1&vote=00396. Accessed 22 Nov. 2020.
"Senators of the United States: 1789-Present." United States Senate, https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/resources/pdf/chronlist.pdf. Accessed 22 Nov. 2020.
Works Cited:
Arkin, James. "Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts to retire in 2020." Politico, 4 Jan. 2019, www.politico.com/story/2019/01/04/pat-roberts-announce-2020-plans-1081334. Accessed 22 Nov. 2020.
Arkin, James, Matthew Choi, and Alex Isenstadt. "Lara Trump considers run for Senate in North Carolina." Politico, 19 Nov. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/11/19/lara-trump-north-carolina-senate-seat-438447. Accessed 22 Nov. 2020.
Axelrod, Tal. "Mike Enzi announces he'll retire from Senate after 2020." The Hill, 4 May 2019, thehill.com/homenews/senate/442132-wyomings-enzi-to-retire-from-senate-at-end-of-term. Accessed 22 Nov. 2020.
Beavers, Olivia. "Alabama zeroes in on Richard Shelby's future." The Hill, 19 Nov. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/526636-alabama-zeroes-in-on-shelbys-future. Accessed 22 Nov. 2020.
Cohen, David. "Jim Bunning, U.S. senator and baseball luminary, dies at 85." Politico, 27 May 2017, www.politico.com/story/2017/05/27/jim-bunning-dies-121196. Accessed 22 Nov. 2020.
Enda, Joni. "Why Democrats don't like Joe Lieberman." CNN, 19 May 2017, www.cnn.com/2017/05/19/politics/why-democrats-dont-like-joe-lieberman/index.html. Accessed 22 Nov. 2020.
Hayes, Christal. "'I am a member of the Democratic Party': Sanders signs loyalty pledge for 2020 bid." USA Today, 5 Mar. 2019, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/03/05/sen-bernie-sanders-signs-pledge-declaring-democrat-2020/3074461002/. Accessed 22 Nov. 2020.
Lesniewski, Niels. "Sen. Tom Udall won’t seek a third term in 2020." Roll Call, 25 Mar. 2019, www.rollcall.com/2019/03/25/sen-tom-udall-wont-seek-a-third-term-in-2020/. Accessed 22 Nov. 2020.
Taylor, Jessica. "Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander, A Bipartisan Dealmaker, Will Retire In 2020." National Public Radio, 17 Dec. 2018, www.npr.org/2018/12/17/677430387/tennessee-sen-lamar-alexander-a-bipartisan-dealmaker-will-retire-in-2020. Accessed 22 Nov. 2020.
"U.S. Senate Senate Session-December 24, 2009." C-SPAN Video, 49:48. 24 Dec. 2009. www.c-span.org/video/?290899-1/senate-session&start=1182&fbclid=IwAR0_NEAV1qrg2KMydSJiccbWXb2yLYaPVe8U6CwSJ42F5NWJnyNGnbVbTGU. Accessed 18 Nov. 2020.
Nathan Parmeter
Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record
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