Update on 2021-2022 Special Congressional Elections
Introduction: Between the New Year and President Biden's inauguration, I discussed regular Gubernatorial and special Congressional elections then-scheduled for 2021. Later, I updated that page with finalized special election dates and information about TX-6's special election, which was triggered by events that occurred several weeks after the publication of that post. By this point, two of the scheduled special elections have been completely held and certified, another one (TX-6) is ongoing, nominees have been chosen for the upcoming NM-1 special election, and two more special Congressional elections have been scheduled for the pre-midterm 2021-2022 season due to vacancies. Today's post will provide updates on these special elections and information about the two new scheduled ones. I will only provide district maps for those two; district maps for the other elections can be found on the original post linked above.
The Resolution of NY-22: While not subject to a special election, NY-22 was vacant when the 117th Congress took their oaths due to its ballot counting and election tabulation procedures stretching beyond New Year's Day. Since the original post was published, a New York judge ordered that the district-wide results be certified, which showed ex-Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) with a 109 vote lead over Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D), who defeated her in 2018 (Parsnow). Brindisi eventually dropped all further challenges to the election's results and conceded to Tenney, who was sworn-in on February 11 (Source).
Already Held/Ongoing:
- Louisiana 2: On March 20, 2021, no candidate received a majority in the LA-2 special election, with State Senators Troy Carter (D) and Karen Peterson (D) competing in the April 24 runoff. In the lead-up to the runoff, Carter ran a relatively moderate campaign, while Peterson campaigned as a progressive, including supporting the Green New Deal and defunding ICE. Carter won the runoff and is now LA-2's new Representative. As a side factoid, both had previously run for the same seat in 2006, when incumbent Representative William Jefferson (D) was in the midst of a corruption investigation (Bradner et al.). As detailed last week, he would run again in 2008 and narrowly lose two years later to Republican Joseph Cao (R), despite being in a district more blue than any Democrat representing a John McCain-won district.
- Louisiana 5: Unlike in LA-2, Julia Letlow (R) won a majority of the vote in the first-round, thus becoming the new Representative for LA-5. Letlow won the seat her husband Luke had won himself last November, but was never seated in because of his death due to COVID-19-related complications in late December (Seitz-Wald).
- Texas 6 (Runoff on July 27, 2021): Despite Democratic attention on the seat, no Democrat managed to achieve a spot in TX-6's July runoff (LeBlanc). This special election had been closely-watched as a potential pickup for House Democrats due to its increasingly-purple nature, as TX-6 voted for Trump by 3% last year after being much redder in previous cycles. In the first round, Susan Wright (R), activist and widow of ex-Rep. Ron Wright (who died of COVID in February), and State Representative Jake Ellzey (R) won the top-two slots, with the top Democrat trailing a few hundred votes behind Ellzey (Birenbaum).
- New Mexico 1 (June 1, 2021): Next Tuesday will be the next Special Congressional Election of the season, that being the one in NM-1, which was vacated by ex-Rep. Deb Haaland (D) to become President Biden's Secretary of the Interior. The Democratic nomination convention saw state Representative Melanie Stansbury (D) narrowly gain the nomination over State Senator Antoinette Sedillo López (D), just as the Democratic debacle in TX-6 occurred (described above). Stansbury faces State Senator Mark Moores (R), who was also chosen by a party convention rather than a primary, and occupies a Biden-won seat. Despite being a district that voted for Biden by 23%, some national Democrats have put extensive effort into this election due to concerns over whether their base will turn out for the special, especially after the TX-6 election (Weigel). Nonetheless, despite low turnout in early voting as of May 21st, statistics show that turnout among that group is overwhelmingly-Democratic. Historically-good Republican performance in off-cycle New Mexico elections due to low turnout and Moores' campaign messaging have made state Republicans and Moores' campaign optimistic about their chances (Akin). The Democratic Party's choice of Stansbury over the progressive López may have been preceded by party concern that a very liberal nominee would have a harder time holding the seat against Republican attacks (Akin; Weigel).
Scheduled:
Ohio 11 (November 2, 2021): Ever since the initial post in January, not much has changed in the OH-11 special election, whose primary (along with OH-15, below) will occur in August ("Special election"). During the intervening time, Democratic progressive activist Nina Turner has received more local and national support for her primary bid (Janfaza; Popielarz), while Cuyahoga County Councilmember Shontel Brown (D) remains her main opponent for the Democratic nomination. The only Republican running is 2020 candidate and businesswoman Laverne Gore, while other Democrats are also vying for the nomination (Popielarz).
Ohio 15 (November 2, 2021):
Image Source: "File:Ohio US Congressional District 15 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, last modified 11 Apr. 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ohio_US_Congressional_District_15_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 23 May 2021.
As shown on the map above, OH-15 is a mixed district that includes suburban and urban portions of Columbus, but also extensive rural and small-town territory to the south and east. Rep. Steve Stivers (R), who first won the seat in 2010, and is relatively moderate for a Republican, announced in April that he would vacate his seat on May 16 to lead Ohio's Chamber of Commerce (Bowden). A total of 12 Republican candidates are vying for the nomination, including businessmen and several State Representatives, with no clear frontrunner at the moment (Source). On the Democrats' side, State Rep. Allison Russo and one other opponent being the only nominees who have filed (BeMiller). The district is not considered very competitive due to its overall Republican lean, evident by Trump's double-digit victory here in 2020 and the overall Republican lean, despite Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown (D)'s narrow 2018 win of OH-15 (Bowden; "Morning Digest").
Florida 20 (January 11, 2022):
Image Source: "File:Florida US Congressional District 20 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 Mar. 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Florida_US_Congressional_District_20_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Note: The map above does not reflect the post-2016 redistricting, although the district area and lines are generally similar in the post-2016 version. I was not able to find a copyright-free map of the current district area and lines.
In April, 84-year-old Representative Alcee Hastings (D) died of cancer after serving in the House for almost three decades, and on several state- and federal-level judgeship positions (Burke and Sczesny). His district, FL-20, is very blue due to including majority-Black portions of South Florida, including parts of Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach ("Florida's"). After Rep. Hastings' death, Governor DeSantis controversially scheduled the special election for the seat to occur next January, with the primary on Election Day 2021 (Sutton). The field of Democratic candidates is large, with multiple local elected officials and several outsiders vying for the nomination, including Hastings' 2020 primary challenger and several young rising stars from the region (Daugherty).
Works Cited:
Akin, Stephanie. "Fundraising shows Democrats taking New Mexico fight seriously." Roll Call, 21 May 2021, www.rollcall.com/2021/05/21/fundraising-shows-democrats-taking-new-mexico-fight-seriously/. Accessed 23 May 2021.
BeMiller, Haley. "12 Republicans, two Democrats vie for 15th Congressional District seat to replace Steve Stivers." The Columbus Dispatch, 18 May 2021, www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/2021/05/17/ohio-15th-congressional-district-republicans-democrats-file-special-election/5127191001/. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Birenbaum, Gabby. "The Texas special election, explained." Vox, 2 May 2021, www.vox.com/2021/5/2/22415802/texas-sixth-district-special-election-susan-wright. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Bowden, John. "Ohio sets special election to replace retiring Rep. Steve Stivers." The Hill, 26 Apr. 2021, thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/550344-ohio-sets-special-election-to-replace-retiring-rep-steve-stivers. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Bradner, Eric, et al. "Troy Carter wins Louisiana special election runoff, CNN projects." CNN, 25 Apr. 2021, www.cnn.com/2021/04/24/politics/louisiana-2nd-district-special-election/index.html. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Burke, Peter, and Matt Sczesny. "Rep. Alcee Hastings, longtime South Florida congressman, dies." WPTV5, 6 Apr. 2021, www.wptv.com/news/political/rep-alcee-hastings-longtime-south-florida-congressman-dies. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Daugherty, Alex. "Palm Beach legislator and ‘unapologetic progressive’ joins race for Hastings’ seat." Miami Herald, 28 Apr. 2021, www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article250999669.html. Accessed 23 May 2021.
"Florida’s DeSantis sets date for special election that leaves U.S. House seat open till 2022." MarketWatch, 7 May 2021, www.marketwatch.com/story/floridas-desantis-sets-date-for-special-election-that-leaves-u-s-house-open-till-2022-01620421478. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Janfaza, Rachel. "The Sunrise Movement endorses top Sanders ally Nina Turner to fill US House seat in Ohio." CNN, 17 May 2021, www.cnn.com/2021/05/17/politics/sunrise-movement-nina-turner-ohio-11th-district-special-election/index.html. Accessed 23 May 2021.
LeBlanc, Paul. "Abbott schedules July special runoff election for Texas' 6th District." CNN, 12 May 2021, www.cnn.com/2021/05/12/politics/texas-special-election-6th-district-susan-wright-jake-ellzey/index.html. Accessed 23 May 2021.
"Morning Digest: Field is set in Ohio special election to replace former NRCC chair." Daily Kos, 19 May 2021, www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/5/19/2031083/-Morning-Digest-Field-is-set-in-Ohio-special-election-to-replace-former-NRCC-chair. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Parsnow, Luke. "Judge Orders Certification of Claudia Tenney as Winner in NY-22 Race." Spectrum News 1, 5 Feb. 2021, spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/binghamton/politics/2021/02/05/judge--certify-claudia-tenney-as-winner-of-ny-22-race. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Popielarz, Taylor. "Nina Turner receives more local endorsements in OH-11 race." Spectrum News 1, 27 Apr. 2021, spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/news/2021/04/27/nina-turner-receives-more-local-endorsements-in-oh-11-race--. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Seitz-Wald, Alex. "Republican Julia Letlow wins special congressional election in Louisiana, NBC News projects." NBC News, 20 Mar. 2021, www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/polls-close-louisiana-special-congressional-elections-n1261680. Accessed 23 May 2021.
"Special election set for upcoming Ohio congressional vacancy." Associated Press, 26 Apr. 2021, apnews.com/article/election-2020-house-elections-elections-special-elections-ohio-a7cf8ee34a3cd5af24672dc25a03738f. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Sutton, Scott. "Gov. Ron DeSantis announces special election for U.S. House 20 to fill seat held by Alcee Hastings." WPTV5, 4 May 2021, www.wptv.com/news/political/gov-ron-desantis-announces-special-election-for-u-s-house-20-to-fill-seat-held-by-alcee-hastings. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Villeneuve, Marina. "GOP’s Tenney, who won House seat by 109 votes, is sworn in." Associated Press, 11 Feb. 2021, apnews.com/article/new-york-elections-claudia-tenney-house-elections-voter-registration-584f6f36435e19731331cd87f4325dca. Accessed 23 May 2021.
Weigel, David. "The Trailer: In New Mexico, Democrats work to prove their Texas rout was a fluke." The Washington Post, 4 May 2021, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/04/trailer-new-mexico-democrats-work-prove-their-texas-rout-was-fluke/. Accessed 23 May 2021.
