A Rundown of Remaining Notable Congressional Primaries

A Rundown of Remaining Notable Congressional Primaries

Introduction: As August passes the halfway point, the 2020 Congressional primary season nears its end. Yet, several of the remaining primary races are significant for 2020 and beyond. In particular, Massachusetts will see plenty of action in its Senate and House primaries, which will be hosted on September 1st. These races are profiled in detail below:

9/1 Races to Watch:

• Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary: The matchup between Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) and Representative Joe Kennedy III (D, MA-4) (the great-nephew of the Kennedy trio) will probably be the most watched Senate primary of the year due to its uniqueness. As profiled several weeks ago, this race is a generational clash, but not so much an ideological one, as both the incumbent and challenger are progressive on many issues (Jacobson). At the time, polling indicated that Rep. Kennedy had a solid lead against Sen. Markey; since that post, polling is showing the race as more competitive as a result of Sen. Markey closing the gap between the two (Murray). Recently, House Speaker Pelosi backed Rep. Kennedy, joining with some of the challenger's other House colleagues including the late Rep. John Lewis (D) and progressive Wisconsin Representative Mark Pocan (D, WI-2). Meanwhile, Sen. Markey's fellow Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), progressive icon Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14), and 2020 NY-16 primary victor Jamaal Bowman (who defeated incumbent Rep. Eliot Engel (D, NY-16)) have backed the incumbent (Budryk). 
• MA-1 Democratic House Primary: When examining potential incumbent primary defeats last year, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball named House Ways and Means Chair Richard Neal (D, MA-1) as vulnerable to a progressive challenge (Kondik, "House 2020"). I listed this race on my mid-June assessment of potential primary defeats or close renominations by incumbents, as Neal faces Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse, who originally took office 10 years ago at the age of 21 (Cote). Progressive interest in this race increased after the primary defeat of Foreign Affairs Chair Eliot Engel (D, NY-16), and Oversight Chair Carolyn Maloney (D, NY-14)'s close renomination in June, in addition to several other close results for progressives in other primaries (Jagoda). Since then, a significant occurrence that started two weeks ago has significantly scrambled this race. On August 7, the Massachusetts Daily Collegian (U Mass's student newspaper) published a story accusing Morse of inappropriate behavior while he was a lecturer at U-Mass, especially allegations of using his position to force local college students into relationships with him. Morse initially confirmed that while he had been in relationships with local students in the past, all were consensual, and that he had dated other non-students (Christensen). A week later, the story changed drastically as Moore began accusing the Neal campaign of having connections to the students and groups who implicated him, suggesting a political motive behind the information's release; this was further strengthened by an interview in The Intercept that made similar claims. Neal's campaign, College Democrats, and the students behind the news story have all denied this link, and argued that the accusers came forward independent of outside forces. Regardless of whether these allegations are true, polling released just prior to the story being published showed Neal at 45% and Morse at 35%, suggesting a potentially close primary race (DeCosta-Kilpa, "Alex"). 
• MA-4 Democratic House Primary: This Democratic House primary could be interesting to watch due to the significantly split field among candidates in the seat being vacated by Rep. Kennedy (D) (Rhodes). To showcase the extent of this split, a recent poll showed no candidate with over 15% of the vote, over 45% of Democratic voters undecided, and many undecideds not leaning towards a particular candidate. On absolute terms, that poll showed candidates Jake Auchincloss (a Newton councilmember and ex-Republican) and Jesse Mermell (a former Brookline board member) tying for first at 15% each ("Report"). Among the other candidates running include an epidermiologist (Natalia Linos), a high-tech businessman (Chris Zannetos), a Moroccan immigrant (Ihssane Leckey), and a Puerto Rican-descended candidate (Ben Sigel) (DeCosta-Kilpa "Dave Cavell," Rhodes). Considering the large field of 8 candidates (one of whom dropped out recently (DeCosta-Kilpa, "Dave Cavell") featured in the poll, the final result could be interesting because of the lack of an absolute frontrunner, the low polling numbers among the frontrunners, and the high number of undecideds. 
• MA-8 Democratic House Primary: At first glance, it makes sense that Rep. Stephen Lynch (D, MA-8) is an incumbent vulnerable to a progressive or liberal primary challenge, as he is among the most conservative House Democrats. As a measure of this, Lynch is one of three remaining Democrats who voted against the 2010 Affordable Care Act (ACA); Reps. Dan Lipinski (D, IL-3), who lost his primary several months ago, and Collin Peterson (D, MN-7) are the other two (Kondik, "The House", 108). In 2018, Lynch received a challenge from progressive game designer Brianna Wu (who received significant harassment during the 2014 "Gamergate" controversy) (North), but won renomination 71%-21% (Kornbluh). Wu originally entered the 2020 primary for a rematch, but dropped out in April due to the ongoing pandemic complicating primary campaigning (Fox). With this, Rep. Lynch's main challenger is physician (and infectious disease specialist) Robbie Goldstein, who is running on a progressive platform and hopes to repeat the successes of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14), Ayanna Pressley (D, MA-7), and Cori Bush in MO-1, among others (McDonald). Furthermore, Goldstein's campaign message has emphasized his health background, particularly as a physician in the context of the pandemic's socio-economic implications (DeCosta-Kilpa, "Stephen"). A recent poll found Rep. Lynch leading Goldstein 39%-32%, making it another potentially close House primary in the Bay State ("Massachusetts"). 

9/15 Races to Watch:

• Delaware Democratic Senate Primary: As noted on an earlier post, this primary is one of three Senate primaries that have the potential to result in an incumbent losing renomination (Markey, discussed above, and Georgia Senator Kelly Loeffler's November "jungle primary" being the others). Two years ago, Delaware Senator Tom Carper (D) received a significant challenge from African-American veteran Kerri Harris, but still won re-nomination by 30% (Shepard). This time, fellow Senator Chris Coons (D) is being challenged by millennial progressive Democrat Jessica Scarane (Gamard), the former of whom has been noted by commentators to be in a strong position going into the September 15th primary (Bittle). While a progressive primary upset in this race seems unlikely, it could be interesting to watch for whether Scarane performs as well as Harris when the votes are counted, which could give further indications of the progressive movement's strength. 

Works Cited:

Bittle, Matt. "Big money for Coons ahead of Sept. primary challenge." Delaware State News, 18 Jul. 2020, delawarestatenews.net/government/big-money-for-coons-ahead-of-sept-primary-challenge/. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

Budryk, Zack. "Pelosi endorses Kennedy in Massachusetts Senate primary challenge." The Hill, 20 Aug. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/senate/512928-pelosi-endorses-kennedy-in-massachusetts-primary?utm_source=thehill&utm_medium=widgets&utm_campaign=es_recommended_content. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

Christensen, Dusty. "Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse: ‘I have never violated UMass policy.'" Daily Hampshire Gazette, 10 Aug. 2020, www.gazettenet.com/Alex-Morse-response-to-allegations-of-sexual-relationships-with-students-35657423. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

Cote, Jackson. "Holyoke Mayor Alex Morser raises around $123,000 in 4th quarter of Congressional race against Rep. Richard Neal." MassLive, 1 Feb. 2020, www.masslive.com/springfield/2020/02/holyoke-mayor-alex-morse-raises-around-123000-in-4th-quarter-of-congressional-race-against-rep-richard-neal.html. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

DeCosta-Kilpa, Nik. "Alex Morse calls allegations ‘highly suspicious’ as new details about their origins emerge." Boston.com, 13 Aug. 2020, www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/08/13/alex-morse-allegation-richard-neal. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

---. "Dave Cavell drops out of 4th District race — backing one candidate in the hopes of blocking another." ---, 13 Aug. 2020, www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/08/13/dave-cavell-4th-district-race-drop-out. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

---. "Stephen Lynch is running on his unique ‘perspective.’ So is his primary challenger." ---, 6 Aug. 2020, www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/08/06/stephen-lynch-robbie-goldstein-race. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

Fox, Jeremy. "Brianna Wu ends bid to unseat Rep. Stephen Lynch, citing coronavirus." Boston Globe, 28 Apr. 2020, www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/28/nation/brianna-wu-ends-bid-unseat-rep-stephen-lynch-citing-coronavirus/. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

Gamard, Sam. "Sen. Chris Coons faces a primary challenge from a progressive millennial. Does she have a shot?" Delaware Online, 18 Nov. 2019, www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/18/millennial-progressive-woman-primary-delaware-sen-chris-coons/2580646001/. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

Jacobson, Louis. "Markey vs. Kennedy: Welcome to the most unusual Senate primary in decades." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2 Jan. 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/markey-vs-kennedy-welcome-to-the-most-unusual-senate-primary-in-decades/. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

Jagoda, Naomi. "Progressives zero in on another House chairman in primary." The Hill, 28 Jun. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/504860-progressives-zero-in-on-another-house-chairman-in-primary. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

Kondik, Kyle. "House 2020: Incumbents Hardly Ever Lose Primaries." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 30 May 2019. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2020-incumbents-hardly-ever-lose-primaries/. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

---. "The House: Where the Blue Wave Hit the Hardest." The Blue Wave, edited by Kyle Kondik, Larry Sabato, Rowman and Littlefield, 2019, 98-114. 

Kondik, Kyle, and Larry Sabato, editors. The Blue Wave. Rowman and Littlefield, 2019. 

Kornbluh, Jacob. "Amid a pandemic, a Boston physician takes on a popular incumbent in Congress." Jewish Insider, jewishinsider.com/2020/04/amid-a-pandemic-a-physician-in-boston-takes-on-a-popular-incumbent-in-congress/. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

"Massachusetts 8th Congressional District Democratic Primary Voter Poll." Politico, Lincoln Park Strategies, 10 Aug. 2020, www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-e117-db69-a777-fdff5c580000. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

Murray, Stephanie. "Kennedy allies sweat as Massachusetts Senate race tightens." Politico, 12 Aug. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/08/12/joe-kennedy-markey-massachusetts-senate-race-394079. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

North, Anna. "Brianna Wu survived Gamergate. Now she’s running for Congress." Vox, 4 Sept. 2018, www.vox.com/2018/9/4/17805606/massachusetts-democratic-primary-2018-brianna-wu-gamergate. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

"Report." Data for Progress, Aug. 2020, filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/8/primary_polling/dfp_ma-4.pdf. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

Rhodes, George. "Candidates for the 4th Congressional district push toward primary." The Sun Chronicle, 9 Aug. 2020, last updated 19 Aug. 2020, www.thesunchronicle.com/news/local_news/candidates-for-the-4th-congressional-district-push-toward-primary/article_2d178b3d-9595-55a1-ad97-853368548154.html. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

Shepard, Steven. "Carper fends off Delaware primary challenge." Politico, 6 Sept. 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/09/06/carper-delaware-primary-challenge-senate-810223. Accessed 20 Aug. 2020. 

Explaining Global Child Mortality through Econometrics

Author's Notes: Tonight's edition of The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record is a special two-part edition; the first part, examining Florida's House primaries occurring this coming Tuesday, can be found here. I was originally going to publish both articles at the normal hour (8pm Pacific Time), but because of the possibility of rolling blackouts hitting Fresno due to the ongoing heat wave, I published both earlier, at 5:30pm. Note that this publication time change will be temporary. 

While my interests in politics and public policy are mostly domestic (i.e. within the US), I also have a secondary interest in international politics and economics, something I previously had an increased interest in prior to the 2016 (United States) Presidential Election. The following post was an assignment in the same course where I also completed the two domestic consumption regression model posts. In this post, I create econometric models to predict and explain child mortality in the developing and emerging world, including inserting fixed and random effects to control for country-specific results. 

Florida House Primaries Preview: Is Another Incumbent Takedown Brewing?

Author's Notes: Tonight's edition of The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record will be a special two-part edition; the second part, where I come up with an econometric model to child mortality in the developing and emerging world, can be found here. I was originally going to publish both articles at the normal hour (8pm Pacific Time), but because of the possibility of rolling blackouts hitting Fresno due to the ongoing heat wave, I published both earlier, at 5:30pm. Note that this publication time change will be temporary.