Democratic House Freshmen (and one longtime member) with Competitive Re-Election Bids to Watch

Author's Notes: As the last regular publication prior to Election Day 2020, tonight's post will be a special two-parter. Part 1 here will briefly discuss several 2018 Democratic House freshman whose re-election bids are competitive due to their districts being relatively Republican. Part 2 provides brief updates of four Senate races previously covered on this blog that could turn into upsets this year. 

Because of the length of time it might take before the full results are known, especially in states that heavily rely on mail ballots, I plan not to do any post-election coverage or analysis until after most of the full results are known. Until then, I plan to focus on other topics temporarily, as this blog has contained a fair amount of pre-election coverage in recent weeks. 

Democratic House Freshmen (and one longtime member) with Competitive Re-Election Bids to Watch

Introduction: As part of the 2018 "Blue Wave," Democratic House candidates won several significant victories in districts that voted for President Donald Trump by more than 10% in 2018 (Kondik, "The House," 115), all of whom are now up for re-election. With Trump also running for re-election, the fate of these Democrats could depend on how the presidential candidates perform at the top, and how many ticket-splitters the downballot incumbents can net. Below, I discuss four House Democrats running for re-election in districts Trump won by over 10%, another blue-district freshman in a close race, and a longtime Democrat in a very Republican district with significant ticket-splitting. 

2016 presidential vote results stated below came from Page 115 of The Blue Wave, edited by Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik. 

Red-District Democratic House Freshmen to Watch: 

• Rep. Anthony Brindisi (NY-22) (2016 Vote: Trump 54.8%-39%) : This Upstate New York House race was unprojected for over two weeks in 2018, as Democrat Anthony Brindisi was narrowly-leading incumbent Claudia Tenney (R) (Baker), in a district formally held by liberal Republican Richard Hanna (who endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016 as a Republican House member) (Gass). This year features a rematch between the current and previous incumbent in a district that Trump won by almost 16% in 2016, more than any other district save Rep. Collin Peterson's (D, MN-7), whose case is discussed below. While this race will likely be close, polling has shown Brindisi ahead of Tenney, and the former's favorability declining post-2018 (Weiner). 
• Rep. Joe Cunningham (SC-1) (2016 Vote: Trump 53%-40%): In this Charleston-based seat that was formally held by ex-Governor Mark Sanford (R) and Senator Tim Scott (R), lawyer Joe Cunningham (D) won an upset victory in 2018, and is now running for a second term (Newell). This year, Cunningham is facing Republican State Representative Nancy Mace, who is campaigning hard to re-take the seat (Rod). Recent reports have suggested the race to be less competitive than expected, with Cunningham at a slight advantage in a district Trump won by 13%, but also where Democrats have the potential to improve significantly (Newell). Nonetheless, this race merits being watched because of its Republican history, the potential for polling to be overstating Cunningham's support, and Mace outraising the incumbent (Rod). Coincidently, both major candidates in this race have tested positive for COVID this year, Cunningham in March and Mace during the summer (Novelly). 
• Rep. Kendra Horn (OK-5) (2016 Vote: Trump 53%-39%): Horn was probably one of the Democrats' greatest upsets of 2018, as the now-Representative narrowly won a district that hadn't voted for a Congressional Democrat in 44 years (Wingerter). Yet, as profiled in one of the 2020 Congressional bellwether posts, Republicans are extensively targeting this district, believing Horn's 2018 victory to be a fluke (Casteel). As of recently, Republican candidate Stephanie Bice is polling ahead of Horn, and this election has been speculated to likely be among the closest House races in the country (Weaver). 
• Rep. Max Rose (NY-11) (2016 Vote: Trump 53%-40%): Marine Veteran Max Rose (D) flipped this Staten Island-based seat blue in the 2018 elections, although it had previously voted for Obama in 2012 before flipping to Trump in 2016. This year, Rose faces State Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis (R) in a tight race. In addition to facing-off with Malliotakis, the incumbent has also extensively criticized New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, especially over the Mayor's approach to policing and the ongoing pandemic (Smith). Recent polling has shown Malliotakis narrowly-leading, with actual turnout and the number of Trump-Rose voters speculated to be decisive in deciding the final result ("Malliotakis"). As an interesting side trivia, YouTube star Joey Saladino (JoeySalads), whose viral pranks and social experiments have garnered significant controversy, was previously running for the Republican nomination (Adams; Asarch). 

The Curious Case of T.J. Cox: This House Freshman's re-election attempts deserves a special mention, because unlike the incumbents listed above, Representative Cox (D) is not in a Republican district. On the contrary, Cox's district, CA-21 (discussed previously as part of the San Joaquin Valley Electoral Politics Project) elected Republican David Valadao three times in a majority-Hispanic district that both Obama and Clinton won by over 10% (Kondik, "House 2020"). In 2018, Cox narrowly flipped the district after Valadao was initially declared the winner and mail ballots tilted the result to the Democrat (White). This year is a rematch between Cox and Valadao, and the race is seen as tight due to multiple controversies Cox has gained attention for during his first term and Valadao's strength in the region (Branson-Potts; Christopher; Weaver). Valadao has emphasized his moderate views on immigration and his ability to both win over voters and work with leaders from across the political spectrum (Cowan; Christopher), while Cox has connected the former incumbent to Trump and Congressional Republicans (Cowan). In addition, the former incumbent has endorsed Trump as a means to maintain support among Republican voters (Christopher). Limited polling has shown Valadao leading the race by a wide margin (Weaver), while the level of voter turnout could be critical in deciding this race's winner (Wildermuth)

The Lone NRA A+ House Democrat: Collin Peterson: Another special mentioning is in regards to a longtime House incumbent in a dark-red district, Representative Collin Peterson (D, MN-7). Peterson's district, MN-7, has re-elected the House incumbent for 15 terms, even though the district (which voted for Trump by 31% in 2016) has become more and more Republican in recent cycles. Peterson's success can be credited to his conservative Democratic ideology, his focus on agriculture, and his willingness to buck the national party (such as opposing the impeachment President Trump) (Easley; Newell). Yet, 2020 is likely Peterson's most difficult campaign yet, as the incumbent is facing Republican star recruit Michelle Fischbach, the State Senate President (Easley). Despite 2018 being a Democratic wave year, Peterson performed slightly worse than in 2016 (Easley). These results could potentially serve as an early indicator that his district may be increasingly becoming Republican downballot in addition to upballot. The only poll (an internal Republican poll from July) shows Fischbach ahead of Peterson by 10 points, but Fischbach's 2020 bid has been significantly holding up against the incumbent's strength (Crampton). Peterson has received extensive backing from the region's agricultural industry as a result of his past support for district farmers and his role as the Agriculture Committee chair (Chipman and Wallbank; Crampton)

Works Cited:

Adams, Rose. "Controversial Youtuber Ends Bid For Congressional Seat." Brooklyn Paper, 16 Dec. 2019, www.brooklynpaper.com/controversial-youtuber-ends-bid-for-congressional-seat/. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Asarch, Steven. "Prankster Joey Salads Permanently Suspended from Twitter." Newsweek, 13 Feb. 2020, www.newsweek.com/prankster-joey-salads-permanently-suspended-twitter-1503755. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Baker, Chris. "It's over: Anthony Brindisi defeats Claudia Tenney in 22nd Congressional race." Syracuse Post-Standard, 20 Nov. 2018, www.syracuse.com/politics/2018/11/its_over_brindisi_defeats_tenney_in_22nd_congressional_race.html. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Branson-Potts, Hailey. "In a toss-up Central Valley district, Republicans and Democrats wage a vicious campaign." Los Angeles Times, 24 Oct. 2020, www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-10-24/congressional-district-21-race-heats-up-rural-california. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Casteel, Chris. "With Bice nomination, Republicans get their much-anticipated shot at Horn." The Oklahoman, 27 Aug. 2020, oklahoman.com/article/5670121/with-bice-nomination-republicans-get-their-much-anticipated-shot-at-horn. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Chipman, Kim, and Derek Wallbank. "Republicans Aim to Flip Minnesota Blue-Dog Democrat’s House Seat." Bloomberg, 9 Oct. 2020, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-09/democrat-collin-peterson-faces-strong-republican-challenge-in-minnesota. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Christopher, Ben. "Congress: The Races to watch." CalMatters, calmatters.org/election-2020-guide/california-congressional-races/. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Cowan, Jill. "California House Races to Watch." The New York Times, 28 Oct. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/us/california-house-races-to-watch.html. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Crampton, Liz. "Ag lobby braces for potential Collin Peterson loss." Politico, 12 Oct. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/10/12/agriculture-lobby-collin-peterson-428423. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Easley, Jonathan. "Peterson faces fight of his career in deep-red Minnesota district." The Hill, 11 Sept. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/515910-peterson-faces-fight-of-his-career-in-deep-red-minnesota-district. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Gass, Nick. "Republican Rep. Richard Hanna will vote for Clinton." Politico, 2 Aug. 2016, www.politico.com/story/2016/08/richard-hanna-to-vote-for-clinton-226555. Accessed 1 Nov. 2019. 

Kondik, Kyle. "House 2018: Crossover appeal." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 9 Feb. 2017, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2018-crossover-appeal/. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

---. "The House: Where the Blue Wave Hit the Hardest." The Blue Wave, edited by Kyle Kondik and Larry Sabato, Rowman and Littlefield, 2019, pp. 98-114.

Kondik, Kyle, and Larry Sabato, editors. The Blue Wave. Rowman and Littlefield, 2019. 

"Malliotakis Narrowly Leads Rose in Tight Staten Island Race, NBC 4/Marist Poll Finds." NBC News, 26 Oct. 2020, www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/decision-2020/malliotakis-narrowly-leads-rose-in-tight-staten-island-race-nbc-4-marist-poll-finds/2685646/. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Newell, Jim. "The Surge: South Carolina’s 1st District." Slate, 16 Oct. 2020, slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/house-democrats-joe-cunningham-tom-malinowski-abigail-spanberger.html. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Novelly, Thomas. "Both Cunningham and Mace have a chance to make history in SC’s 1st district race." Charleston Post and Courier, 18 Oct. 2020, www.postandcourier.com/politics/both-cunningham-and-mace-have-a-chance-to-make-history-in-scs-1st-district-race/article_08bb2e74-0ca5-11eb-b18c-97b131c931b2.html. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Rod, Marc. "First-term Cunningham gains upper hand in battleground South Carolina district." Jewish Insider, 19 Oct. 2020, jewishinsider.com/2020/10/first-term-cunningham-gains-upper-hand-in-battleground-south-carolina-district/. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Smith, Allen. "Rep. Max Rose is fighting for his life in a nasty House race." NBC News, 14 Oct. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/rep-max-rose-fighting-his-life-nasty-house-race-n1243329. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Weaver, Stephanie. "2020 election: Here are the House races to watch." Fox6 Milwaukee, 30 Oct. 2020, www.fox6now.com/news/2020-election-here-are-the-house-races-to-watch. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Weiner, Mark. "Brindisi surges ahead of Tenney in House race (Siena College | Syracuse.com poll)." Syracuse Post-Standard, 8 Oct. 2020, www.syracuse.com/politics/cny/2020/10/brindisi-surges-ahead-of-tenney-in-house-race-siena-college-syracusecom-poll.html. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

White, Jeremy. "Dems flip another California district after Valadao concedes." Politico, 6 Dec. 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/12/06/tj-cox-wins-california-house-21-1025859. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Wildermuth, John. "Ties to Trump are an issue in rare competitive California House race." San Francisco Chronicle, 26 Oct. 2020, www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Ties-to-Trump-are-an-issue-in-rare-competitive-15675757.php. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Wingerter, Justin. "Kendra Horn upsets Steve Russell in an Oklahoma City stunner." The Oklahoman, 6 Nov. 2018, oklahoman.com/article/5614244/kendra-horn-upsets-steve-russell-in-an-oklahoma-city-stunner. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020.  

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record