The San Joaquin Valley Electoral Politics Project, Part 4: 2008-2016 Presidential Results

Author's Notes: After a multiple-week hiatus, The San Joaquin Valley Politics Project returns, just like the Jedi (and Sith). Things have been fairly busy in my personal life, which has made it hard for me to do the data collection and create related data visualizations to continue this project. Nonetheless, with the presidential election only weeks away, I wanted to cover this relevant topic as part of my pre-2020 election coverage, as the results presented in today's post will feed into discussion of how the Valley could vote in the future based on presidential election trends since the Cold War. 

Furthermore, if you are interested in learning more about politics, current events, and voting, be sure to check out the podcast How About_Vote?, co-hosted by my former graduate school peer, colleague, and friend Martin Sanders. New episodes on that podcast are posted on Mondays until Election Day. 

Eight More Potential 2020 House and Senate Bellwether Races to Watch

Eight More Potential 2020 House and Senate Bellwether Races to Watch

Introduction: At this point, exactly 29 days remain until Election Day 2020! After completing last Sunday's post, where I discussed 12 (really 13) House and Senate races that could serve as bellwethers for 2020's socio-political and electoral trends, I decided to create a follow-up post covering another slate of Congressional races I didn't include on the first post. The number of Senate races covered below is less than the number of House races because of the greater number of House races, and because most of the potential Senate races have already been covered. When it gets closer to election night, I'll do a similar post highlighting which House districts could provide bellwethers for the presidential race and related trends. 

Senate:

• Alaska (Are any non-New England states still open to electing non-binary (partisan-wide) Senators?): For the last few cycles, only two non-partisan candidates have been elected to the Senate, Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), both of whom caucus with the Democrats (Brown). In addition, several true independents have worked to win high-profile races, such as Greg Orman (I) in Kansas's 2014 Senate election, but none have come close (Brown; Coleman and Kondik, "The Senate"). During the 2014 elections, Republican Dan Sullivan narrowly defeated incumbent Senator Mark Begich (D), son of former At-Large Representative Nick Begich (Coleman and Kondik, "The Senate"). As an interesting and relevant side trivia, the elder Begich had previously defeated banker Frank Murkowski (the father of the current Senator) for the seat, and later presumably died in a plane crash with two other members of Congress in 1972 (Barrone; L. Jordan). This cycle's Democratic candidate for the younger Begich's former Senate seat, Al Gross, also sports a famous Alaskan political surname, as Gross's father Avrum is a former Alaska Attorney General (Downing, "Sarah Palin"; Townsend). Note that while the younger Gross is an independent candidate on paper, he was nominated by the Democratic Party, and has pledged to join the Democratic Senate Caucus should he get elected (Townsend). Recently, Gross criticized the Alaska State Government for putting his party affiliation as "Democrat" on the November ballot, despite him running as an "Alaska Independent" (Coleman and Kondik). The limited polling of this race have shown a close race, with Gross tying or slightly behind Sullivan (Akin; Coleman and Kondik). 
• Michigan (How high is the ceiling for Black Republican Senate candidates in the Trump era?): During the 2018 Senate cycle, African-American Republican John James (R) challenged incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow (D), with his 6% losing margin being surprisingly closer than expected (Ackley). Two years later, as a rising star in the Republican Party, James once again won the Republican nomination, this time to challenge Michigan's other Senator, freshman Gary Peters (D) (Axelrod). In addition to his racial background, young age, and military background, James is a notable Republican candidate because of his personal connection with the Black Lives Matter movement. During the recent protests, James reflected on his similar experiences with police, noting that he could have suffered a fate similar to other African-Americans who have faced police brutality, and as such, expressed sympathy with the movement's goals (Beggin). In parallel with this, James also came out in support of several major criminal justice reform ideas, such as improving police accountability, modifying training procedures, and supporting community policing (Beggin; Gray and Peters). Currently, polling shows Peters with a modest but solid single-digit lead, but with the possibility for James to improve in the state, especially if Trump wins the state again (Axelrod). Simultaneously, James has raised a significant amount of money from Republican-aligned groups, who hope to follow-up on Trump's 2016 upset victory in the Wolverine State (Ackley; Axelrod). 
• North Carolina (Regardless of who wins, what will the party coalitions look like?): In 2008, North Carolina entered the battleground map after being solidly-Republican for years, with Barack Obama narrowly winning the state's electoral college votes, and Democratic Senate candidate Kay Hagan flipping the Class 2 seat (Siegel). However, the following cycles witnessed a massive Democratic regression, with Romney flipping North Carolina back to red in 2012, and Trump winning despite Hillary Clinton designating it "Roadblock State" (Funk and Off; Montanaro). Even though Democrats did take back the governorship in 2016 against an unpopular incumbent, the narrow victory margin for now-Governor Roy Cooper (D) indicates that the state still remains stubborn for Democrats to win (Margolin). Compounding this, Hagan narrowly lost re-election in 2014 to now-Senator Thom Tillis, who is now campaigning for a second term against State Representative Cal Cunningham (D) (Arkin; Robertson). Because of its social and political diversity, the Tar Heel State could have the potential to spell out the electoral coalitions of both parties and answer many of the critical questions included here and on the other post about 2020's electoral trends. For example, a Democratic victory in North Carolina will likely ride on the back of increasing Democratic margins in the historically-Republican educated suburbs of Charlotte and the "Research Triangle" that moved more Democratic in 2016, and cutting down Republican margins in the more conservative smaller cities. In addition, Democrats will also need significant turnout and margins among African-Americans and Native-Americans, with Robeson County in the south-central being considered a specific indicator of the latter (Coleman). On the other hand, if Tillis is to win re-election, he will have to turn out White working-class and middle-class voters outside the major cities and chop into Democratic margins among well-educated voters. In addition, picking up enough support from minorities, especially moderate Native Americans, could also assist Tillis in a close race. This is a strategy that now-Representative Dan Bishop (R, NC-9) employed in his successful 2019 special election win, who extensively reached out to the Lumbee tribe of Southern North Carolina and ended up performed well in majority-Native American portions of the district (Coleman). Polls currently show Cunningham with a sizeable but still narrow edge over Tillis, and it has been speculated that North Carolina will be one of the most critical Senate races in deciding the Senate majority (Arkin; Robertson). 
• Note: The above information was mostly written before this past Friday, when Cunningham admitted to sending sexual texts to a female strategist across the country in California. Cunningham is still in the race, and Democratic Party campaign institutions are continuing to support him as of the original publication of this article (10/4/2020 at 8pm PST) (Alexander et al.). 

House:

• AZ-6 (How far will the traditionally-Republican Sun Belt suburbs fall in 2020?): Despite losing the electoral college in 2016, Hillary Clinton improved significantly in many traditionally-Republican Sun Belt suburbs, including those around Phoenix, such as those covered by AZ-6 (Wheel). Two years later, Democratic Senate candidate (now Senator) Kyrsten Sinema improved even more here, losing AZ-6 by 3 points (Grace and Panetta). While his 2018 re-election was fairly solid, AZ-6 incumbent David Schweikert (R) has since been investigated by (and received sanctioned from) the House Ethics Committee for several major scandals, which has been speculated to have hurt his 2020 campaign (Touchberry). Recent reports have indicated that the incumbent's cash on hand is very low, while his opponent, physician Hiral Tipirneni (D) (who previously lost a close 2018 special election in neighboring AZ-8) is fundraising a significant amount of money and leading in polls (Grace and Panetta; Touchberry). While this race could be argued to be unusual because of the incumbent's significant scandals, a Democratic victory here would be a key indicator of how far 2020 Democrats can go in Sun Belt suburbs in places like Phoenix that moved left in 2016 and/or 2018, but still voted Republican. 
• IL-13 (To what extent will COVID-19 impact student turnout?): While there are many House districts that contain major colleges and universities, IL-13 (stretching across a chunk of Central Illinois) is a Republican-held district with two major schools, the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana and Illinois State University in Normal (Hansen). With the ongoing pandemic causing in-person educational activities at higher education institutions to be heavily curtailed or suspended, barriers to college students and young adults voting may be heavier than normal (Marshall Jr. and Okun). Compounding this uncertainty of young adult and student turnout is speculation that like 2016, the Democrats' nomination of Joe Biden may depress young adult turnout due to many being unsatisfied with the nominee and primary results (Birenbaum; Kapur). However, other pundits have speculated that young adult turnout may be higher than normal as a result of this election being significant to the group, and because of related youth-heavy political activism of recent years (Sprunt; Struck). Cutting across these two possibilities, others have found that while many young voters plan to vote for Biden, they are unenthusiastic about him, and would prefer a progressive or leftist candidate (Birenbaum). Regardless, this year's race features incumbent Rodney Davis (R) and non-profit advisor Betsy Dirksen Longdrigan (D), who are rematching after the former very narrowly won re-election in 2018 (Landis). Because of the concentration of college students in IL-13, a significant drop-off in voting amongst that group is likely to have a significant effect here, which is most likely to be reflected by a Davis victory with a larger margin than 2018. Vice-versa will likely be true if Dirksen successfully wins IL-13 this November. 
• NE-2 (Can progressive candidates win purple and/or Middle America House seats?): During the 2018 cycle, progressive Democrats hoped to add another victory to their list in purple-district NE-2, comprising Omaha and some of its surrounding suburbs (Panetta). That year, progressive Kara Eastman had upset ex-Representative Brad Ashford in the Democratic primary, who was seeking to reclaim the seat after losing it in 2016 (Sanderford). After Eastman's victory, Democratic Party campaign institutions reduced their support for her, seeing her as a lost cause, but she still nearly won against incumbent Don Bacon (R) in November (Gronewold). Two years later, Eastman ran for another shot at the nomination, this time beating Ashford's wife, who has refused to concede or endorse Eastman (J. Jordan). This year, Eastman is running a campaign reaching out to a broad spectrum of voters (including Republicans), while her 2018 campaign was very progressive (Gronewold). In concurrence with this strategy, Eastman has been endorsed by progressives and mainstream liberals (such as former President Obama) alike, further strengthening her campaign (Sanderford). If Eastman wins this November, she will as one of the few progressives in purple or light-blue/light-red seats (in addition to California's Katie Porter (Barmann; Baskin)), and one of the few in more rural parts of America (Heuvel). 
• NY-2 (Will retirees vote Democratic down ballot as well as up ballot?): In 2020, longtime Republican social moderate Peter King chose to retire, opening up the largely exurban and suburban Long Island seat. The underlying district has shifted significantly in recent years, with NY-2 voting twice for Obama before voting for Trump by 9% in 2016 (Coltin). At the House level, King previously had faced little opposition, although his 6% win in 2018 was relatively narrow for the incumbent (Coltin; McDonough). This year's race is between State Assembly Member Andrew Garbarino (R) and local councilmember Jackie Gordon (D), and is predicted to be competitive due to being an open seat (McDonough). When considering recent polls showing Biden leading older voters (Murray), this race will provide an idea if older voters' temporary Democratic bump will bleed down into local races, including House races such as NY-2. Like parts of Florida, Long Island has a significant proportion of retired and older voters, which has increased significantly in the last decade (Bowles et al.; Parks). 
• VA-7 (Will the suburbs assist Democrats in purple and light-red districts again?): Out of all the House races occurring across America, this one has the potential to tell one of the defining political stories of the Trump era: whether younger and more educated suburban and urban voters, or older blue-collar voters in rural areas will turn out in greater numbers. VA-7 contains a significant portion of suburban Richmond and rural territory in Central Virginia that was previously home to ex-Republican leader Eric Cantor (R), who was then speculated to be a potential future House Speaker (Newton-Small). His 2014 primary loss to local professor Dave Brat (R) (whose name I noticed in an economics textbook I used during my first semester of graduate school) was considered one of the biggest upsets of the year (Chappell). Brat won two terms in the district, before narrowly losing to ex-CIA Officer Abigail Spanberger (D) in 2018 (Wilson). This year, Representative Spanberger is running for a second term against State Delegate Nick Freitas (R). Spanberger's 2018 victory was based off significantly winning the well-educated portions of suburban Richmond, while rural areas remained Republican (Leahy; Wilson), a pattern that is likely to repeat if she is to win another term (Leahy). On the other hand, if Freitas hopes to win next month, he would need a combination of higher turnout in rural Republican areas of the district, and a significant insurrection into suburban Richmond. 

Honorable Mentions:

• House: CA-21, NM-2, NV-3, NC-8, NJ-2, OH-1, PA-10, VA-5

Works Cited:

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Alexander, Ames, Tara Copp, and Brian Murphy. "U.S. Senate candidate Cal Cunningham admits to sexting with California strategist." Raleigh News-Observer, 2 Oct. 2020, www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article246191610.html. Accessed 4 Oct. 2020. 

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Struck, Kathleen. "Plenty of Signs Surging Youth Vote Will Play Major Role in 2020 US Election." Voice of America, 22 Jun. 2020, www.voanews.com/student-union/plenty-signs-surging-youth-vote-will-play-major-role-2020-us-election. Accessed 4 Oct. 2020. 

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