CORRECTION: The title of the post was originally "10 Days to Georgia..." I realized that it is actually 9 days from when this post was published, which is now corrected. The URL is still the same after the correction.
9 Days to Georgia (Senate Runoffs): The Current Situation and Where to Watch on Runoff Night
Introduction: As detailed in one of my first post-election posts, Georgia will have double Senate runoffs on January 5th, just ten days from today. After the 2020 Election Day results were tabulated, Republicans had a total of 50 seats, while Democrats had a total of 48 seats, a one-seat net change in favor of Democrats. If Democrats win both Georgia Senate seats, they will have 50 seats, allowing Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris to break Senate ties. If Democrats win one or zero Georgia Senate seats, Senate Republicans will have a majority, which would significantly impact Democratic policy and legislative dreams (Heath). As there will not be a post one week from now (the last theoretical post day before the runoffs), today's post will be the last update on the twin Senate runoffs.
In this post, I will first lay out the recent situation in both races, including recent polling, then discuss 9 counties and groups of counties to watch on runoff night, which will include by detailing past election results from these counties.
The Current Situation:
Class 2 (Regular) Senate (David Perdue vs. Jon Ossoff): On December 6th, the Atlanta Press Club scheduled a formal debate between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican incumbent David Perdue, but only Ossoff showed up, as Perdue refused to participate in any debate. At the event, Ossoff answered questions from the panel and attacked Perdue's unwillingness to participate (Scanlan and Stewart). In recent advertising, Democrats have heavily pushed on both Senators' controversial stock market activity while serving in the Senate, especially allegations of insider trading during the pandemic. Both incumbents have denied these allegations (Bolton). Republicans have fired back with their own advertising at Ossoff, claiming he allegedly mislabeled his Senate financial disclosure forms, something hey claimed could be illegal (these claims have been debunked) (Dale).
- As of this post's publication time (8pm PST on 12/27/2020), the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows the race at around Perdue +0.5% ("Latest Polls"), while the RealClearPolitics average shows it around Perdue +1.0% ("Georgia Senate Runoff").
Class 3 (Special) Senate (Kelly Loeffler vs. Raphael Warnock): The same night as the scheduled Ossoff-Perdue debate, Senator Loeffler (R) and Democrat Raphael Warnock took the stage to debate before the Special Election. During the debate, Senator Loeffler refused to explicitly support Trump's assertions that the election was "rigged," but did support Trump's challenging of the results. At the same time, she did not explicitly acknowledge Joe Biden as the winner of the presidential election, while largely talking about the importance of the two Senate races for Republican voters. Warnock spent the debate clarifying his policy positions and rhetoric, including his opposition to "defunding the police" and "court packing," and past comments he had made about police violence in America. Finally, the two sparred over the COVID-19 pandemic and response, with Warnock attacking the incumbent for not doing enough to help Georgians, and Loeffler emphasizing her support for COVID economic stimulus measures (Scanlan and Stewart). Since the debate, Republican advertisers have gone hard on Warnock, especially emphasizing his past sermons on police (Ross), noting an alleged event he hosted that welcomed Cuban ex-leader Fidel Castro (Dale), and continuing to frame him him a "radical" (Murphy). To counter, Democratic advertising has emphasized Loeffler's affluent background and related scandals, such as the insider trading allegations, as making her out-of-touch with the state and its people (Bolton).
- As of this post's publication time (8pm PST on 12/27/2020), the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows the race at around Warnock +0.6% ("Latest Polls"), while the RealClearPolitics average shows it around Loeffler +0.2% ("Georgia Senate Special").
Campaign Finance and Early Voting Turnout: A recent Axios report discussed the campaign finance situation as of Dec. 25, noting that both Democratic Senate candidates had raised $100 million each, making both the most expensive Senate elections in history. The title was previously held by this year's South Carolina Senate election, where Democrat Jaime Harrison raised $57 million (Allassan). On the Republican side, Senator Loeffler has raised $64 million for her campaign, while Senator Perdue has raised around $68 million (Arkin and Montellaro).
Early voting for both elections began on December 14th, indicating high turnout for both runoffs as early as two days later (Kight). By December 24th, more than 2 million Georgians had cast early ballots for the Senate runoffs, including 1.3 million in-person and around 700,000 by mail (Heath). Around 64,000 voters who did not participate in the general election have voted in the runoffs so far (Roos). Civil rights groups have expressed concern about the closing of some early voting polling precincts in minority communities across the state, arguing that it could depress turnout among minority and working-class groups (Mansoor).
Counties to Watch and Corresponding Trends:
Map 1: Counties to Watch
Base Map Source: Effeietsanders. "File:Blank map subdivisions Georgia.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 25 Apr. 2020, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Blank_map_subdivisions_Georgia.svg. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Counties to Watch and Corresponding Trends:
- Bartow, Carroll, Cherokee, Coweta, Forsyth, and Paulding Counties (Who will Biden-voting exurban voters bring home the runoffs for?): On the Table 1 results, the exurban Atlanta counties stand out because of Trump's significant underperformance relative to past and 2020 downballot Republican (including both incumbent Senators) performance there. Containing over 500,000 voters in the 2020 elections ("Presidential Election Results"), these six counties still broke heavily for Trump, but not as much as past cycles. Yet, downballot, Senators Purdue and Loeffler both outran Trump in this region, although even their performances were a decline from past Senate election cycles.
- Clarke County (What will student turnout look like?): This county contains Athens, home to the 39,000-student University of Georgia (Shearer). With this in mind, Clarke County will reveal how high student and young adult turnout will look like in the runoff, two groups whose turnout on Election Day likely helped Joe Biden win the presidency (Nadler).
- Cobb County (What are the limits to Democrats' Trump-era growth in suburban Atlanta?): One of the most talked-about Trump-era political trends is the massive shift in the once-red suburbs of Atlanta, including Cobb. Following-up on Hillary Clinton's historic victory in Cobb, Joe Biden further widening the winning margin there this year, which was likely critical in helping him win the state (Jain and Kendall). Despite this shift, its downballot shift has not been as strong, as both of this year's Senate candidates ran behind Biden here in the first-round of voting (Coleman and Francis; "Presidential Election Results"). While the gap between both Senate candidates is only a few points, considering how close Biden's victory was in Georgia, this small percentage point difference was likely critical, and provides a potential idea for what Ossoff and/or Warnock would need to win the state.
- DeKalb and Fulton Counties (What will urban liberal turnout look like?): The City of Atlanta spans both DeKalb and Fulton Counties, while the latter also contains significant suburban tracts north and south of the city. Joe Biden performed extremely well here, winning both counties by a combined 492,750 vote margin ("Presidential Election Results"), a massive jump from Hillary Clinton's 379,170 raw vote margin ("2016 Presidential"). A similar strong performance by Ossoff and Warnock in Atlanta's two counties will be necessary to win the runoff elections on January 5th.
- Fannin, Hall, Lumpkin, and Union Counties (Will Doug Collins' voters come out for the Republican incumbents?): Ever since Senator Johnny Isakson (R) announced his resignation in August 2019, an ongoing feud in Georgia has emerged between two Republican camps. The first camp comprises Georgia's Republican establishment headed by Governor Brian Kemp, who appointed Kelly Loeffler to Isakson's Senate seat. The other camp comprises President Trump himself, who favored outspoken Freedom Caucus Rep. Doug Collins (R, GA-9) to be appointed instead. After Loeffler's appointment, Collins ran for the seat in the Special Election, alleging that Kemp and the state party overruled Trump's desire for him to be appointed instead, and arguing that Loeffler was insufficiently conservative (Becker). After Election Day 2020, some Republicans surrogates (including Lawyer Sidney Powell) and groups began to advocate for Republicans to boycott the runoffs, alleging that Georgia's Republican establishment (including both Senators and Kemp) are complicit in Trump's voter fraud conspiracy (which has been debunked) (Arkin and Nguyen; Colarossi). Among some Collins voters, the feeling still persists that despite her recent shift to the right in response to Collins, Sen. Loeffler is not conservative enough for the position (Barlow). Since then, both Collins and Trump have encouraged Republican voters to vote for the two incumbent Senators as a means to maintain the GOP Senate majority (Moore; Semones). Top Republicans have also expressed concern that Trump's false claims about the election system being "rigged" may cause Republican voters to boycott, thus leading to a Democratic victory (Axelrod). While not making one of the top two runoff positions, Collins performed well in the area covered by his Northeast Georgia-based district (Coleman and Francis), reflected by him winning several counties with nearly of a majority of the jungle primary vote, and almost 70% of the Republican vote (Table 2). Among these counties include the rural counties of Fannin, Lumpkin, and Union on the border with Tennessee, and Hall (home of Gainesville) near Atlanta. Because Collins did well in these counties, they could reveal whether Doug Collins voters will put aside their dislike of Senator Loeffler and come out for one or both runoff elections.
- Jefferson, Macon, Sumter, and Washington Counties (How high will turnout among rural Black voters be?): In my post-election bellwether county assessment, one of the critical Southern electoral trends I discussed was rural Black turnout, which seemed to remain stagnant or slightly decreased based on examining Georgia's "Black Belt" county results from 2016 and 2020. The counties selected here are majority-Black or largely, and have population sizes under 20,000 ("Explore Census Data"). The most notable of these four counties is Sumter, home to Plains, where ex-President Jimmy Carter comes from and still resides in to this day (Lawler). Washington County, which is majority-Black, is notable for narrowly voting for Biden, but also for Senator Purdue this year (in the first-round results), and Gov. Kemp (R) in 2018, which could arguably make it a bellwether for the state as a whole. These four, plus other counties in the region, will tell a story about whether the rural Black vote comes out for the runoffs, and how strong both Democrats will be among the group in the two runoffs that are expected to be close. Pre-runoff observations have noted that so far, early voting turnout in rural and small-city parts of the state, including in rural Black areas, is high (Amy).
Table 1: Bellwether County 2008-2020 Election Results
Election Results Sources: Georgia Secretary of State (2020 Special Senate), CNN (2020, 2018), The New York Times (2016, 2014), David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections (2008). All links to each specific source are included below
Table 2: Bellwether County 2020 Special Senate Election Results
Election Results Source: "November 3, 2020 General Election-US Senate (Loeffler) Special"
Another Long Wait Ahead? After polls closed on Election Day 2020, Georgia's electoral votes remained unprojected by major news outlets for almost two weeks due to the slow counting of absentee and other ballots in Metro Atlanta (Kalich et al.). After initial counting finished, Biden held a narrow lead in the Peach State, which led to an automatic recount (Bryant). This recount led to almost no change in the results, and Biden was declared the winner of the state soon after (Haney). The final results of both Senate runoffs also may not be known for some time, especially considering how close both are speculated to be by pundits and analysts (Bluestein and Niesse). Like the presidential election, recounts and legal action are likely if the results are close, which would delay the certification of the results, and knowing who the two Senators will be (Bluestein and Niesse; Levine).
Election Results:
"2012 Presidential General Election Results - Georgia." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 15 Dec. 2020.
"2016 Presidential Election Results." The New York Times, last modified 9 Aug. 2017, www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president. Accessed 11 Dec. 2020.
"National Results." CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2018/results. Accessed 11 Dec. 2020.
- 2018 Election Results
"November 3, 2020 General Election-US Senate (Loeffler) - Special." Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, last updated 20 Nov. 2020, results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/detail/10100. Accessed 23 Dec. 2020.
"Presidential Election Results and Electoral Map 2020." CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president. Accessed 11 Dec. 2020.
"Senate Election Results 2014." The New York Times last modified 17 Dec. 2014, www.nytimes.com/elections/2014/results/senate?utm_source=top_nav&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=election-2014. Accessed 11 Dec. 2020.
Allassan, Fadel. "Democrats in Georgia runoff shatter quarterly Senate fundraising record." Axios, 25 Dec. 2020, www.axios.com/democrats-georgia-runoff-shatter-quarterly-senate-fundraising-record-705662a9-6775-4986-b61f-bce1535e7f98.html. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Amy, Jeff. "Warnock and Loeffler work to consolidate voters for runoff." Associated Press, 27 Dec. 2020, apnews.com/article/election-2020-senate-elections-georgia-doug-collins-general-elections-cd8c724b048b9c56a3fcb13fa09511dd. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Arkin, James, and Tina Nguyen. "Trump’s conspiracies have MAGA world talking Georgia boycott." Politico, 26 Nov. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/11/26/trump-conspiracies-georgia-senate-440776. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Arkin, James, and Zach Montellaro. "Democrats shatter fundraising records ahead of Georgia Senate runoffs." Politico, last updated 25 Dec. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/12/24/democrats-fundraising-records-georgia-senate-runoffs-450440. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Axelrod, Tad. "Collins urges voters to turn out in Georgia runoffs." The Hill, 29 Nov. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/527834-collins-urges-voters-to-turn-out-in-georgia-runoffs. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Barlow, Katie. "Kelly Loeffler and the GOP's War of Internal Aggression." Insider, 19 Dec. 2020, www.insider.com/in-a-divided-georgia-kelly-loeffler-needs-a-united-gop-2020-12. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Becker, Amanda. "Kelly Loeffler’s Senate reelection is complicated by Trump." The19th, 26 Dec. 2020, 19thnews.org/2020/12/kelly-loeffler-senate-runoff-georgia-trump/. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Bluestein, Greg, and Mark Niesse. "Get ready, Georgia: More election drama expected after Senate runoffs." Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 26 Dec. 2020, www.ajc.com/politics/get-ready-georgia-more-election-drama-expected-after-senate-runoffs/QLGVE463RVHKTEVD7ZO3MLS5VY/. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Bolton, Alexander. "Democrats bet Perdue's stock trades can sway runoff." The Hill, 6 Dec. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/senate/528817-democrats-bet-perdues-stock-trades-can-sway-runoff. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Bryant, Miranda. "Georgia announces recount after presidential race too close to call." The Guardian, 6 Nov. 2020, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/06/georgia-recount-us-election-biden-trump. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Coleman, J. Miles, and Niles Edward Francis. "Georgia Senate Runoffs: Breaking Down November, Looking to January." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 17 Dec. 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/georgia-senate-runoffs-breaking-down-november-looking-to-january/. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Colarossi, Natalie. "Pro-Trump Lawyer Calls for Georgia Runoffs Boycott, Hints at Arresting Loeffler, Perdue." Newsweek, 26 Dec. 2020, www.newsweek.com/pro-trump-lawyers-call-georgia-runoffs-boycott-hints-arresting-loeffler-perdue-1557384. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Dale, Daniel. "Fact check: Georgia Republicans run more misleading attack ads against Warnock and Ossoff." CNN, 26 Dec. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/12/26/politics/fact-check-georgia-senate-warnock-ossoff/index.html. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
"Explore Census Data." United States Census Bureau, data.census.gov/cedsci/. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
"Georgia Senate Run-Off Election - Perdue v. Ossoff." RealClearPolitics, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ga/georgia_senate_runoff_election_perdue_vs_ossoff-7319.html. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
"Georgia Senate Special Election Run-Off - Loeffler v. Warnock." RealClearPolitics, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ga/georgia_senate_special_election_runoff_loeffler_vs_warnock-7318.html. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Haney, Adrianne M. "Why Biden's win in Georgia is historic." 11Alive, 19 Dec. 2020, www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/elections/georgia-2020-election-results-biden-wins/85-3da06ff2-5676-4ae4-8580-48bded7cd461. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Heath, Brad. "Nearly 2.1 million have voted early in U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia." Reuters, 24 Dec. 2020, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-georgia/nearly-2-1-million-have-voted-early-in-u-s-senate-runoff-in-georgia-idUSKBN28Y1T2. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Jain, Lakshya, and Kendall Kaut. "Suburban Shifts Power Biden Victory." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 17 Dec. 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/suburban-shifts-power-biden-victory/. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Kalich, Sydney, Char'Nese Turner, and Haley Townsend. "Georgia will have a recount in presidential race, Secretary of State says." Fox40, 5 Nov. 2020, fox40.com/news/your-local-election-headquarters/georgia-election-results-still-too-close-to-call-update-expected/. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Kight, Stef W. "Georgia's early voting starts with heavy turnout." Axios, 16 Dec. 2020, www.axios.com/georgia-senate-runoff-turnout-db6ed79e-1185-46b0-ac2f-36f8d9a4ae42.html. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
"Latest Polls Of The Georgia Senate Runoffs." FiveThirtyEight, last updated 24 Dec. 2020, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Lawler, Suzanne. "'They're just like any other neighbor': Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter continue their legacy in Plains." 13WMAZ, 17 Feb. 2020, www.13wmaz.com/article/features/carter-president-plains-georgia-jimmy/93-d689c20a-14f9-452e-a378-e8d244c7ca2f. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Levine, Joe. "Georgia Senate runoffs may not be decided for weeks." New York Post, 26 Dec. 2020, nypost.com/2020/12/26/georgia-senate-runoffs-may-not-be-decided-for-weeks/. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Mansoor, Sanya. "Georgia Polling Site Closures Reducing Access to Early Voting Among Working Class and Minority Voters, Civil Rights Groups Say." Time Magazine, 26 Dec. 2020, time.com/5923898/georgia-early-voting-polling/. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Moore, Mark. "Rep. Collins urges GOP voters to turn out in Senate runoff election in Georgia." New York Post, 29 Nov. 2020, nypost.com/2020/11/29/rep-collins-urges-gop-voters-to-turn-out-in-georgia-runoffs/. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Murphy, Patricia. "Georgians get Scrooged by campaign ads." Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 22 Dec. 2020, www.ajc.com/politics/georgians-get-scrooged-by-campaign-ads/UGT6KM3MVVGNPBCL7IVCJURWGA/. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Nadler, Ben. "Turnout among young voters key to Georgia Senate runoffs." ABC News, 26 Dec. 2020, abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/turnout-young-voters-key-georgia-senate-runoffs-74914299. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Roos, Meghan. "More than 64k Early Georgia Runoff Voters Didn't Vote in General Election." Newsweek, 24 Dec. 2020, www.newsweek.com/more-64k-early-georgia-runoff-voters-didnt-vote-general-election-1557256. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Ross, Janell. "For Black pastors, calling out racism is standard. It's become a weapon for Warnock's opponent." NBC News, 14 Dec. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/black-pastors-calling-out-racism-standard-it-s-become-weapon-n1251141. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Scanlan, Quinn, and Brianna Stewart. "5 key takeaways from Georgia Senate runoff debate." ABC News, 6 Dec. 2020, abcnews.go.com/Politics/key-takeaways-georgia-senate-runoff-debate/story?id=74573326. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Schneider, Elena. "Georgia runoffs become high-stakes GOP fundraising experiment." Politico, 14 Dec. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/12/14/georgia-runoffs-gop-fundraising-experiment-444954. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Semones, Evan. "'Don’t listen to my friends': Trump encourages Georgia Republicans to vote." Politico, 5 Dec. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/12/05/trump-rally-georgia-senate-runoff-perdue-loeffler-443077. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Shearer, Lee. "UGA sees record enrollment, but drops to fourth-largest Georgia college." Athens Banner-Herald, 13 Nov. 2020, www.onlineathens.com/story/news/education/2020/11/13/uga-sees-record-enrollment-but-drops-to-fourth-largest-georgia-college/114935228/. Accessed 27 Dec. 2020.
Nathan Parmeter
Nathan Parmeter
Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record
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