The Counting of CA-7 and CA-16 2014's Votes: Two Foreboding Examples of the "Blue Shift" Effect?
Introduction: Along with the controversy over President Trump and the United States Postal Service in the context of increased adaption of vote-by-mail by many states, is the concept of the "Blue Shift." This effect occurs when in election races that heavily utilize mail ballots, the Republican candidate leads in election day ballots, but the Democratic candidate wins in the end because non-election day ballots shifted the race in the Democratic candidate's favor. Research has shown that while mail ballots do not generally benefit one party, Democratic voting groups are more likely to vote-by-mail (D. Graham).
In 2018, a House race in my home county, CA-21, saw the "Blue Shift" occur, and resulted in a shocking late-hour defeat for incumbent David Valadao (R). In this case, election pundits had projected Valadao as the winner on election night, but had retracted that projection when mail ballots lowered the margin (Rakich). When all results were in, Democrat T.J. Cox had pulled off a 1% win (White). Similarly, in suburban Orange and Los Angeles County, CA-39 Republican candidate Kim Young (R) was narrowly leading after election day ballots were compiled and counted. When mail ballots were counted and the results compiled, Democratic candidate Gil Cisneros (D) had won by 3%, showing another example of the "Blue Shift." (J. Graham). Finally, in Arizona's 2018 Senate race, Republican Martha McSally was initially leading after election day votes were counted, but after mail ballots were completely counted, Democrat Krysten Sinema was declared the winner (D. Graham). These are the most prominent examples of the "Blue Shift" that have been talked about lately, but this effect has been going on for longer. As I noted on a Twitter thread I recently posted, the 2014 CA-16 House election is arguably an early example of the "Blue Shift" occurring, and is one where I directly had an impact on the race, as I voted in it.
My Story: My connection to one of the elections discussed below is as follows. In 2014, I turned 18, and started my first semester at UC Merced, located in CA-16. As such, 2014 became the first time I voted in an election, and I was looking forward to it. Before election day, I received my ballot, filled it out, and dropped it off at the UC Merced election precinct on election day. At the time, I didn't follow Congressional races to the extent that I do now, and as such, didn't realize until years later that not only was CA-16 one of the closest races in the country that year, but it was foreboding of an effect that is receiving extensive discussion now.
Counting CA-16's (and CA-7) Ballots: When the election day vote was fully counted after poll closing time, CA-16 incumbent Representative Jim Costa (D) was losing by around 730 votes to Republican Johnny Tacherra, with mail ballots left to count (Elias). This initial result was seen as a major shock because pre-election analysis had ruled out Costa as vulnerable ("2 California"). Nonetheless, Costa's campaign expressed optimism that mail ballots would turn the race around and that Costa would win another term (Haagenson). I was not able to find a source indicating whether Tacherra explicitly declared victory at this point, but he did attend the House Freshman Orientation after the election, but before all mail ballots were counted and the race was projected (Brown). As the counting of mail ballots began, Tacherra's lead soon narrowed (Moore). By November 19th, as Fresno County compiled its last set of results, the election flipped to a 1,300 vote (or 1.8%) winning margin for Costa. Soon after, Costa was declared the winner ("2 California"). Per Sabato's Crystal Ball's Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, had Tacherra (R) still won after the counting of mail ballots, it would have been considered a major upset, as Barack Obama received 59% in that district in 2012. At the time, the most Democratic district to have a Republican House member was the (previously-mentioned) neighboring CA-21, which gave Obama 55% in 2012 (Kondik and Skelley).
In 2014, Costa was not the only California House Democrat who experienced the "Blue Shift" saving them after initially losing on Election Night. Further north in suburban Sacramento, freshman Rep. Ami Bera (D, CA-7) was also losing his race on election night, but pulled forward in mail ballots weeks later (Elias). These two races were among the last of the cycle to be projected, along with AZ-2's razor-thin result that saw now-Senator Martha McSally (R) unseat Rep. Ron Barber (D), who replaced ex-Rep. Gabby Giffords (D) after the latter was severely injured in the 2011 Tucson Shooting and resigned ("2 California", Parti).
The "Blue Shift" and the 2020 Election: Among the intense discussion of the upcoming presidential election is talk over how the role of expanded mail ballot usage will impact the reporting of election results, especially in close states. In particular, it has been argued that the blue shift effect could be more prevalent than ever, as more Americans, especially Democratic voters, will be voting-by-mail (D. Graham). Much concern has been put forward that President Trump may initially declare victory if Election Day results show him ahead in critical states, even if the results are close, and that he may try to block the counting of non-election day ballots to "keep" such victory (McCartney). Another significant concern is that even if President Trump allows mail ballots to be counted, that he might declare the process or ballots to be "fraud" if the mail ballots lean heavily towards Biden (Bryant). This scenario echoes Trump's reaction to the vote-counting in 2018's Arizona Senate and Florida Gubernatorial and Senate elections, where non-election day ballots brought those races closer towards the respective Democratic candidates (Hayes). Regardless of what actually happens after November 3rd, the "Blue Shift" will likely be considered one of the most important political phenomena of this era, although as pointed out by the two races profiled above, the effect has already been occurring before President Trump's controversial statements brought it into mainstream discourse.
Works Cited:
"2 California Dems win after long counts." Politico, 19 Nov. 2014, www.politico.com/story/2014/11/california-2014-elections-ami-bera-jim-costa-win-113046. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
Brown, Alex. "Orientation for New Members Includes Some Who Won't Be." The Atlantic, 14 Nov. 2014, www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/11/orientation-for-new-members-includes-some-who-wont-be/441228/. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
Bryant, Christa Case. "The election is in 94 days. Will the results be seen as legitimate?" The Christian Science Monitor, 31 Jul. 2020, www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2020/0731/The-election-is-in-94-days.-Will-the-results-be-seen-as-legitimate. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
Elias, Thomas. "Dems tighten hold on California with new election law." Hanford Sentinel, 19 Dec. 2014, hanfordsentinel.com/news/opinion/columnists/dems-tighten-hold-on-california-with-new-election-law/article_01dbb5ff-8389-5fda-b3ec-380c51452bdf.html. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
Graham, David. "The ‘Blue Shift’ Will Decide the Election." The Atlantic, 10 Aug. 2020, www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/brace-blue-shift/615097/. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
Graham, Jordan. "Election 2018: Democrats control all Orange County House seats as Gil Cisneros wins 39th Congressional District, completing blue sweep." 19 Nov. 2018, www.ocregister.com/2018/11/17/election-2018-democrats-control-all-orange-county-house-seats-as-gil-cisneros-wins-39th-congressional-district-completing-blue-sweep/. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
Haagenson, Gene. "Johnny Tacherra increases lead over Jim Costa in congressional race." ABC 30, 7 Nov. 2020, web.archive.org/web/20181125132235/https://abc30.com/politics/tacherra-increases-lead-over-costa-in-congressional-race/386008/. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
Hayes, Christal. "This is why Republicans are claiming voter fraud in Florida and Arizona." USA Today, 9 Nov. 2018, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/09/florida-and-arizona-elections-why-republicans-claiming-voter-fraud/1947000002/. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
Kondik, Kyle, and Geoffrey Skelley. "14 from ’14: Quick Takes on the Midterm." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 13 Nov. 2018, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/14-from-14-quick-takes-on-the-midterm/. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
McCartney, Robert. "Here’s one way Trump could try to steal the election, voting experts say." Washington Post, 17 Aug. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/local/heres-one-way-trump-could-try-to-steal-the-election-voting-experts-say/2020/08/16/b5bf0c2a-de66-11ea-b205-ff838e15a9a6_story.html. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
Moore, Joe. "Tacherra Continues To Lead Costa In CA-16." Valley Public Radio, 7 Nov. 2014, www.kvpr.org/post/tacherra-continues-lead-costa-ca-16. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
Parti, Tarini. "Republican McSally wins last House race of 2014." Politico, 17 Dec. 2014, www.politico.com/story/2014/12/martha-mcsally-arizona-second-113640. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
Rakich, Nathaniel. "The Last Unresolved House Race Of 2018." FiveThirtyEight, 27 Nov. 2018, fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-last-unresolved-house-race-of-2018/. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
White, Jeremy. "Dems flip another California district after Valadao concedes." Politico, 6 Dec. 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/12/06/tj-cox-wins-california-house-21-1025859. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020.
Nathan Parmeter
Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record
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