Colorado's Last Red Hue: Examining Cory Gardner's 2014 Senate Victory
Introduction: Last month, I posted a Tableau-made bubble diagram on Twitter showing county-level change in net votes between the 2008 and 2020 Presidential Elections in Colorado. During this time period, Colorado started as a light-blue/purple state, but has rapidly become a nearly-solid blue state since Donald Trump (R) entered the national stage in mid-2015. Yet, the year prior witnessed a significant electoral moment for the Centennial State, as Representative Cory Gardner (R) narrowly won that year's U.S. Senate race in a state President Barack Obama (D) won by 6% two years prior (Navarro; Sarlin). Despite Gardner serving only one term, his 2014 win is significant when considering the significant electoral shift that has occurred since, which can lead to questions of how he even pulled off a narrow victory in the state whose name's origin reflects the color of his party. Today's post will explore election data to determine what electoral factors led to Gardner's victory.
Counties of Colorado: Visual 1 below displays the names and locations of Colorado's counties, as I will be referencing them throughout this blog post.
Visual 1: Counties of Colorado
Data Sources: "File:Colorado-counties-map.png." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Apr. 2011, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Colorado-counties-map.png. Accessed 10 Jul. 2021.
2008 and 2014: In 2008, incumbent Senator Wayne Allard (R) retired after serving two terms. In parallel with Barack Obama (D)'s historic victory in Colorado, Representative Mark Udall (D), member of a multi-state political family, easily won the seat over Republican Bob Schaffer ("Democrat wins").
Six years later, in a familiar story that has defined American electoral politics in recent decades, the tables turned on Udall, despite Obama winning the state a second time by over 5% in 2012. Representative Cory Gardner, a freshman from the 2010 Red Wave who unseated incumbent Rep. Betsy Markey (D) by 11% in 2010, jumped into the Senate race at the last minute after Republicans initially failed to recruit a high-quality candidate (Sarlin; Tomasic). Gardner went on to narrowly defeat Sen. Udall as part of the GOP's 9-seat gain in the upper chamber (Kondik; Sarlin). Visual 2 below depicts the county-level results from both Senate races. Even without reading the rest of this blog, the massive Republican shift across the state stands out.
Visual 2: County Map Results
Data Sources: "2014 Abstract," "Official Publication"
Analysis of Election Results and Electoral Shifts:
2008-2014 Regional Results and Significant Changes: Between the 2008 and 2014 Senate elections, Colorado swung 11% towards the GOP. As seen on Visual 3, every county became more Republican, although the exact shift was variable. In particular, the rural High Plains counties east of Denver and Colorado Springs saw significant pro-GOP shifts, with some county margins becoming over 20% more Republican. Something that can explain this shift (in addition to partisan changes and the national environment) is increased conflict between the region and Denver over the state's increasingly liberal energy standards. Oil and gas drilling is an increasingly-important industry in this region, and fuels the sense of alienation with Denver. A year prior to the 2014 election, a bloc of counties in this region voted on whether to split off from Colorado and form a new state. Several counties eventually voted in favor of secession (Camron), notably Yuma, which saw the largest pro-Republican swing between the 2008 and 2014 Senate elections (36.21%). In Colorado's northwest corner, Moffat County (home to Dinosaur National Monument) voted for a similar measure to join Wyoming ("Election Results 2013"), and saw a pro-Republican swing by a similar margin the following year. As detailed in the next paragraph, that portion of the state has similar cultural and economic attributes.
In parallel with the trend on the High Plains, the "western slope" counties bordering Utah saw similar swings, including a the contiguous quartet of counties containing the Republican-voting cities of Mesa (Grand Junction), Delta (Delta), Montrose (Montrose), and purple-leaning Garfield County (Rifle and Glenwood Springs). Like the Plains counties, this region relies heavily on oil and gas extraction, which might be a significant explanation for this swing (Webb). As I detailed in a Twitter map this morning to commemorate the first anniversary of my Twitter account and reaching 200 followers on it last week, the aforementioned former trio of counties didn't even vote for ex-Representative John Salazar (D) in 2008, whose 25% win of CO-3 included some normally-red rural counties. Today, this region is the home base of controversial U.S. Representative Lauren Boebert (R), who won CO-3 in 2020 after defeating incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton (R) in the primary. Tipton had represented the expansive district since defeating Salazar in 2010.
In the south-central part of the state bordering New Mexico lies a group of majority-Latino counties, all of which saw a significant electoral shift between the 2008 and 2014 Senate elections. This region's once-strong Democratic heritage has melted away in recent years, with Joe Biden (D) only winning longtime blue Costilla County, which hasn't voted Republican since 1924 (Sullivan). In 2016, multiple counties around Costilla flipped from blue to red, and except for Pueblo County, all stayed with Trump in 2020, who also flipped Alamosa (Frank and Osgood). This region is also home to several of the largest electoral swings in counties that flipped parties between the two Senate elections, Conejos and Las Animas. Both gave Udall double-digit margins in 2008, but voted for Gardner in 2014, with Las Animas voting for Gardner by 7% (thus shifting 5 colors on the scale used on Visual 2).
Finally, the already-blue mountain counties only moved slightly more red, including most of the ski resort- and tourist-dominated counties such as Eagle (Vail), Pitkin (Aspen), and San Miguel (Telluride). Boulder County, home to the state's flagship university, saw the smallest pro-Republican swing in the state, at around 2.04%. Metro Denver's counties saw significant margin shifts in favor of Gardner, but considering that the bulk of the state's population lives here, such shifts were probably critical for Gardner to win. Per Visual 2, the three suburban counties directly ringing Denver (starting north and going clockwise), Adams, Arapahoe, and Jefferson, all narrowly voted for Udall in 2014, with all three swinging 10-15% right compared to 2008. These counties have since swung left under Trump, helping secure Colorado's status as an increasingly-blue state (Frank and Osgood). Yet, these counties (especially Jefferson) contain a high number of independent voters (Markus), a group that Gardner performed well with in 2014 (Sarlin).
Visual 3: Changes in County-Level % Margins
Data Sources: "2014 Abstract," "Official Publication"
Change in Total Turnout: Visual 4 below shows the percentage change in total turnout between the 2008 and 2014 Senate elections, while Visual 5 looks at the percentage change in votes per party. The mountain counties, Metro Denver, and the southern majority-Latino counties saw significant drops in turnout. The middle's turnout drop is notable considering the rapid population growth that has occurred in Denver in the last decade. Meanwhile, the high plains counties had the lowest declines in total turnout, although this did not translate into the western slope counties along the Utah border that are culturally-similar.
Visual 4: County-Level Changes in County-Level Turnout
Data Sources: "2014 Abstract," "Official Publication"
Change in Votes by Party: Visual 5 probably reveals the largest reasons behind Udall's 2014 loss, which was the across-the-board decline in total votes for the Democratic candidate. The massive decline on the High Plains and on the Western Slope bordering Utah significantly stand out, which were also locations where the percent change in Republican votes between 2008 and 2014 was positive. Meanwhile, Metro Denver counties saw greater loss of raw Democratic votes than Republican declines or even gains. Finally, Republican vote gains in Southern Colorado counties mirror the High Plains and Western Slope, where the percent change in Democratic votes was significantly negative as well. An exception to these trends is Boulder and the Mountain counties, where the percent change in Democratic votes were similar or lower than change in Republican ones.
Visual 5: 2008-2014 % Difference in Candidate Vote Shift (DEM-REP)
Note: Say that Democratic candidate Y receives 3 in 2008 and 2 in 2014 while Republican candidate X receives 5 votes in 2008 and 10 in 2014. Since the change in Democratic is -33% and Republican votes is 50%, the percentage difference is -0.88.
Data Sources: "2014 Abstract," "Official Publication"
Conclusion: The above visuals and analysis tells a story of why and how Senator Gardner pulled off a since-unprecedented victory in an increasingly-blue state. In particular, the across-the-board drop in Democratic turnout, a significant pro-Republican surge in non-major urban counties, and Gardner's performance in the Metro Denver suburbs doomed Senator Udall's aspirations for another term. These factors are in addition to the general political environment in 2014, classic turnout declines that occur during midterms, and a conservative backlash to President Obama, who was unpopular going into Election Day (Judis). In Colorado specifically, other reasons for the Republican Senate victory include Gardner moderating on some issues to attract independent votes, Udall spending too much time attacking these same positions, poor turnout, and Democratic underperformance among Latino voters, a critical electoral bloc in Colorado (Judis; Sarlin)
Not within a week of Election Day 2018, national and state Democratic talk had set their sights on Senator Gardner, motivated in part by the party's massive gains in Colorado a week prior (Garcia). Prior to the 2018 midterms, polls conducted six months into President Trump's tenure in the White House showed Senator Gardner's disapproval rating above 50% and him losing by double-digits to a "generic Democrat" in 2020 ("Colorado," 1). Meanwhile, the Senator began to walk a tightrope between chairing the Republican Senate Campaign Committee while working closely with Senate Democrats on shared issues (Everett), potentially a sign that the Senator knew what was coming. As the 2020 election cycle moved closer and closer, Gardner was considered a near-certain loser due to him representing an increasingly-blue state with demographics unfavorable to Donald Trump's Republican Party (Garcia). On Election Day, he faced popular ex-Governor John Hickenlooper (D), who won a 9% victory over the incumbent Senator ("Colorado Senate"; Riccardi). While creating the 2010-2020 double-digit Congressional losers post in May, I was surprised to find that Gardner did not lose by double-digits, despite Joe Biden (D) winning the state by 14% (Navarro)! Ultimately, Gardner's 2014 victory represented a temporary deviation in a state that has otherwise been moving in the opposite direction due to 2014's unique electoral conditions detailed here, especially lower Democratic turnout.
Election Data Sources:
"2014 Abstract of Votes Cast." Office of the Secretary of State of Colorado, www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/Results/Abstract/pdf/2000-2099/2014AbstractBook.pdf. Accessed 4 Jun. 2021.
"Official Publication of the Abstract of Votes Cast for the 2008 Primary 2008 General." Colorado Secretary of State, www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/Results/Abstract/pdf/2000-2099/2008AbstractBook.pdf. Accessed 4 Jun. 2021.
Works Cited:
Camron, Victoria A.F. "Weld County voters like Colorado, reject secessionist proposal." Weld County Times-Call, 5 Nov. 2013, www.timescall.com/2013/11/05/weld-county-voters-like-colorado-reject-secessionist-proposal/. Accessed 11 Jul. 2021.
"Colorado Senate Election Results." Politico, last updated 6 Jan. 2021, www.politico.com/2020-election/results/colorado/senate/. Accessed 10 Jun. 2021.
"Colorado Survey Results." Public Policy Polling, 2017, static.politico.com/60/b7/f84038254e46a02a95b7fcf8803c/ppp-save-my-care-poll-of-colorado.pdf. Accessed 4 Jun. 2021.
"Democrat wins in Colorado Senate race." Reuters, 4 Nov. 2008, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-colorado-senate/democrat-wins-in-colorado-senate-race-idUSTRE4A42EJ20081105. Accessed 11 Jul. 2021.
"Election Results 2013: Gov. Christie And More." CNN, 6 Nov. 2013, earlystart.blogs.cnn.com/2013/11/06/election-results-2013-gov-christie-and-more/. Accessed 11 Jul. 2021.
Everett, Burgess. "'He's a brave man': The lonely existence of Cory Gardner." Politico, 5 Mar. 2021, www.politico.com/story/2018/03/05/cory-gardner-colorado-senate-republicans-433563. Accessed 4 Jun. 2021.
Frank, John, and Carrie Osgood. "Colorado continues to shift blue: The 2020 election, explained in graphics." Colorado Sun, 10 Nov. 2020, coloradosun.com/2020/11/10/colorado-2020-election-explained/. Accessed 11 Jun. 2021.
Garcia, Nic. "Which Democrat will challenge U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner? Four names sit on top of insiders’ lists.." The Denver Post, 14 Nov. 2018, https://www.denverpost.com/2018/11/14/cory-gardner-senate-re-election-democratic-challengers/. Accessed 4 Jun. 2021.
Kondik, Kyle. "Senate 2016: The Republicans’ 2012 Homework." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 11 Dec. 2014, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2016-the-republicans-2012-homework/. Accessed 16 Jun. 2021.
Judis, John B. "Here's Why the Democrats Got Crushed—and Why 2016 Won't Be a Cakewalk." The New Republic, 4 Nov. 2014, newrepublic.com/article/120138/2014-election-results-heres-why-democrats-lost-senate-gop. Accessed 11 Jul. 2021.
Markus, Ben. "JeffCo Voters A Critical Voting Bloc For Presidential Elections." Colorado Public Radio, 12 Jul. 2016, www.cpr.org/2016/07/12/jeffco-voters-a-critical-voting-bloc-for-presidential-elections/. Accessed 11 Jul. 2021.
Navarro, Natalia V. "Joe Biden Is On Track To Win Colorado By The Largest Margin Of A Presidential Candidate In Decades." Colorado Public Radio, 5 Nov. 2020, www.cpr.org/2020/11/05/joe-biden-is-on-track-to-win-colorado-by-the-largest-margin-of-a-presidential-candidate-in-decades/. Accessed 10 Jul. 2021.
Riccardi, Nicholas. "Democrat Hickenlooper wins US Senate race in Colorado." Associated Press, 4 Nov. 2020, apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-senate-elections-colorado-elections-f5035cf416f2a5243b226cc6c169c2e1. Accessed 12 Jun. 2021.
Sarlin, Benjy. "Cory Gardner defeats Mark Udall in critical Colorado Senate race." MSNBC News, 4 Nov. 2014, www.msnbc.com/msnbc/cory-gardner-defeats-mark-udall-critical-colorado-senate-race-msna451396. Accessed 10 Jul. 2021.
Sullivan, Robert David. "How the red and blue map evolved over the past century." America: The Jesuit Review, 29 Jun. 2016, www.americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/how-red-and-blue-map-evolved-over-past-century. Accessed 11 Jul. 2021.
Tomasic, John. "In Senate run, Gardner may be hard-pressed to sell far-right record." The Colorado Independent, 27 Feb. 2014, www.coloradoindependent.com/2014/02/27/in-senate-run-gardner-may-be-hard-pressed-to-sell-far-right-record/. Accessed 16 Jun. 2021.
Webb, Thomas. "Local 2020 drilling activity lowest in decades." The Daily Sentinel, 18 Feb. 2021, www.gjsentinel.com/news/western_colorado/local-2020-drilling-activity-lowest-in-decades/article_9978a15c-7141-11eb-bcb2-5370ee974e46.html. Accessed 11 Jul. 2021.
