A Look at Nine Presidential Swing State County Bellwethers

A Look at Nine Presidential Swing State County Bellwethers

Introduction: Several weeks ago in a two-part series, I looked at a selection of House and Senate races that could serve as bellwethers for 2020's critical electoral and socio-political trends. Tonight's post expands on those posts by exploring several counties from swing states that have the potential to tell the story of the 2020 Presidential Election, regardless of the final result. Like before, each county has listed in parenthesis the respective question or trend that it will likely answer.  

Critical Swing-State Counties to Watch:

• Arizona: 
• Maricopa County (Will Sun Belt Hispanic voters turn out for Biden?): For the last three cycles, Arizona's Maricopa County, which contains almost 60% of the state's voters, has been the most-populated American county to vote Republican (Kondik et al., Wheel). Maricopa County has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Harry Truman, but going into the 2016 cycle, this was speculated to be a place that Hillary Clinton had the potential to flip because of its large Hispanic population and sizable number of moderate suburban voters (Wheel). While Maricopa still voted for Trump in 2016, signs are increasingly pointing to 2020 being the year it finally flips blue. Most notably, as part of her 2018 statewide victory, Democratic Senate candidate Kyrsten Sinema (D)'s (the first Democratic Senator in Arizona since 1988) statewide victory relied heavily on winning Maricopa by 60,000 votes (Dias and Steinhauer; Rothenberg). If Biden is to win here, not only will he have to flip a significant number of moderate educated White voters, but he will also have to ensure high turnout and margins among Hispanics. Last time, Hispanics in Maricopa County comprised almost 30% of the population, but their turnout rates were low relative to other racial groups (González). In the end, while Arizona's Hispanic turnout was fairly high in 2016, it was not enough to carry the state, despite the Hispanic vote share growing from 2012 (Nuño and Wilcox-Archuleta). This time, a sizable increase in Hispanic turnout and margins for Joe Biden will likely be key if he is seeking to flip Arizona for the second time since World War II, and Maricopa will almost certainly be a part of it. 
• Florida: 
• Miami-Dade County (How will the Cuban-American population vote this year?): I may have already covered the Cuban-Americans in the original 2020 Congressional bellwether article, but this group is so critical to Florida's electoral results that it needs to be brought up again. And "so critical" is probably an understatement when considering the group's past and recent voting history relative to the Sunshine State's often razor-thin electoral results. In 2016, the Cuban-Americans vote voted for Trump by around 54%-41% (Gomez et al.), but two years later, Republican improvement among the group was likely key for Governor Ron DeSantis (R)'s and Senator Rick Scott (R)'s respective statewide victories (Garcia-Navarro). As noted on the first post, there are signs that Cuban-Americans have have generally increased their support for Trump and the Republican Party this cycle around (Sesin). As Miami-Dade County is home to the largest Cuban diaspora in the world, Biden's margins (raw votes and percent) here will tell Cuban-Americans are reverting back to the pre-Trump mean or if the Republican re-consolidation of the group will be minimal (Bump). 
• Georgia: 
• Fayette County (How much improvement room do Democrats have in traditionally-heavy Republican Sun Belt suburbs?): One of 2016's most talked-about electoral trends was the shifting of Atlanta's traditionally-Republican suburbs towards Hillary Clinton (Saporta). The former FLOTUS flipped multiple suburban counties around Atlanta that hadn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Georgia native Jimmy Carter was on the ballot (Saporta; Tierney and Weigel). Among these improvements that did not turn into wins included Fayette, a suburban county south of the Atlanta Airport that has also not voted Democratic since Carter. In 2016, Fayette voted for trump 57%-38%, much narrower than Romney's 65%-33% ("Presidential Election"). This margin narrowed further in 2018, with now-Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (R) winning it 56%-42% ("Georgia Governor"). Like the former three counties, Fayette is increasingly well-educated, and is increasingly diverse due to attracting African-American migrants (Cunningham; Joyner). While a major increase compared to Abrams will be required if Biden is to win Fayette, it should be closely-watched because out of the suburban counties around Atlanta, it was the closest county to vote Republican in 2016 and 2018 ("Georgia Governor"; "Presidential Election"). In the larger field of 2020's socio-political trends, Fayette will provide a broad picture of how high the Democrats' possible ceiling is in historically-red suburban Sun Belt areas that trended blue, but still voted Republican in 2016 and 2018. This trend is similar to the one described last time in AZ-6, a place politically-similar to Fayette County. 
• Iowa:
  
• Cerro Gordo County (Will historically-Democratic Trump-won Upper Midwest small-city counties remain Republican?): In the original post, I indicated that Iowa has the potential this year to indicate whether the Upper Midwest is truly turning more Republican or if it is still politically-flexible after Trump's 2016 gains there. Containing the 28,000-population Mason City, Cerro Gordo County voted for Obama by double digits before voting for Trump by 8% (Godden). In 2018, a good Democratic wave year, Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Fred Hubball failed to win Cerro Gordo while losing the state by 2% ("Iowa Governor"). Comparatively, in Iowa's 2014 Senate election, Democratic candidate Bruce Braley won Cerro Gordo by 8% despite losing the state by 9% ("Iowa Election"). The 2016 and 2018 results seem to indicate at least a semi-permanent Republican trend for counties like Cerro Gordo in the Upper Midwest. Yet, there are good arguments that recent events could help both Trump or Biden win the state. On Biden's end, the effects of the trade war have extensively hurt rural and small-town Iowa, and this is something that has weighed heavily on many Iowa voters who went for Trump in 2016 (Polsanek). Yet, President Trump has also taken the time to emphasize to rural Midwestern voters his non-trade war trade policies, such as reforming NAFTA and coming up with a long-term trade deal with China (Pramuk; Rodeiguez). Another more recent variable has been COVID-19's extensive negative effects on rural Iowa communities, which has reportedly caused Iowa's 2016 nonvoters and Obama-Trump voters to consider voting for Biden this time (Finnegan and Mehta). Considering all of these facts, Cerro Gordo County's voting results relative to the state, region, and nation will help truly indicate if Trump's 2016 surge here was a one-time event or part of a longer-term pro-Republican trend. 
• North Carolina:
• Robeson County (Will Southern rural nonwhite voters turn out for Biden?): Located in South-Central North Carolina, this low-income rural county is very diverse, home to a significant proportion of Native-Americans and African-American voters, but a sizeable population of White voters as well (Woolverton). As profiled on the last bellwether post, Native American voting patterns here are critical due to the prominent Lumbee Tribe historically being politically-moderate and open to Republican policy ideas (Coleman; Woolverton). In 2016, many of Trump's ideas and statements, especially trade, resonated with Lumbee voters, who have seen economic stagnation as older industries have moved-out (Campbell; Woolverton). Meanwhile, African-American turnout in North Carolina dropped in 2016 compared to 2012, which might have stifled Hillary Clinton's attempt to win the state (Funk). This combination of factors led to Trump flipping this longtime Democratic county after it voted for Obama by almost 18% (Campbell). Going into this year's election, Robeson has been notated as a critical county once again for both sides, especially Biden. Recently, Biden endorsed giving federal recognition to the Lumbee Nation should he get elected, something that could benefit the tribe, and potentially lead to tribal members to consider voting for Biden (Woolverton). Based on the above facts, Robeson has the potential to tell what minority turnout in the rural South will look like, which will be more critical in Georgia and multiple close (or potentially-close) Southern Senate races. 
• Ohio:
• Portage County (Can Biden successfully replicate the Obama coalition?): Aside from Iowa, no other state swung as sharp towards Trump than Ohio, as Portage County, a post- Bill Clinton blue county, was carried by Trump by just under 10% ("Presidential Election"). In addition to a significant number of unionized blue-collar voters, this county also contains Kent State University's 20,000 students (Barry), two significant Obama-era coalition groups (Halpin and Teixeira). These two groups heavily supported Obama in his two elections, but the coalition fractured in 2016, with a sizeable chunk of the former flipping to Trump, and even many young working-class White voters also becoming more Republican (Barry; Cohn). Yet, Portage voted narrowly for now-Ohio Governor Mike deWine (R) in 2018, a good Democratic year ("Ohio Governor"), although popular Senator Sherrod Brown (D) simultaneously won Portage by 7% ("Ohio Senate"). Polls have shown that Biden appears to be performing better than Clinton among blue-collar White working-class voters, a prominent group in Portage (Barry; Galston; Siders). Meanwhile, student turnout here could be negatively impacted by COVID-19-related measures, especially due to the mass introduction of remote schooling. Combined, Portage (along with similar Wood County near Toledo) will tell if Obama's Ohio coalition will come back together this year for Biden, or if Trump's gains among blue-collar voters in the Rust Belt may be permanent. 
• Pennsylvania: 
• Lackawanna County (After almost voting for Trump, will historically-Democratic blue-collar medium-sized cities swing back to Biden?): I believe that no place in 2016 arguably better encapsulates what went wrong for Hillary Clinton than Pennsylvania's Lackawanna County, containing Joe Biden's birthplace of Scranton (Prose). This historically-unionized blue collar locale had been reliably Democratic for many years, but swung almost 25% towards Trump in 2016, voting for Clinton by 3% after Obama won by 28% (Terruso). Like with other similar places in the Midwest and Rust Belt, economic stagnation and a general feeling of being left-behind by the modern economy have been cited as significant reasons for Trump's surge here (Kraus; Vickers). Yet, as noted in Portage, OH's listing above, polling has indicated that Biden is running ahead of Clinton among blue-collar White working class voters (Galston; Siders), a group prominent in Lackawanna (Terruso). On the other hand, there are other signs that Trump's 2016 support is likely not his ceiling, and that Lackawanna may be close once again (Terruso). In addition to telling as to whether longtime Democratic blue-collar locales like Lackawanna will show a Republican regression, if Trump were to improve in, and win Lackawanna, it would be a major symbolic victory due to Lackawanna containing Biden's hometown. 
• Texas: 
• Tarrant County (Will any counties with over 1 million people vote for Trump?): As noted above, Arizona's Maricopa County has been one of the few counties with over a million people to consistently vote Republican in presidential elections until recently. Tarrant County (home of Fort Worth and numerous DFW Metroplex suburbs) currently falls as the second-most Republican county based on 2016 results (Wheel). Yet, even if Tarrant takes the most-populated Republican county title from Maricopa this year, the time it holds that title is likely to be short. Like Maricopa, Tarrant has also shifted less and less red in recent cycles, with potential for it to shift even more towards purple, even light-blue (Wilson). To show how much it has shifted in the Trump era, Hillary Clinton lost Tarrant by 8% after Obama lost by 16% (Wheel). In 2018, Democratic Senate Candidate Beto o'Rourke narrowly won Tarrant as he came very close to besting Senator Ted Cruz (R) (Smith and Tinsley). In 2016, when Texas was considered a possible competitive state going into before election day, National Public Radio's pre-election bellwether assessment highlighted Tarrant as a critical county Clinton would have to win if she were to take the Lone Star State (Montanaro). By extension, and especially considering o'Rourke's 2018 result, if Biden is to win Texas, Tarrant will be a crucial part of said win, and yet (Smith and Tinsley), will also reveal if any highly-populated counties are still open to voting Republican in the Trump era. 
• Wisconsin:
• Milwaukee County (Will the 2020 urban Black vote look like 2016 or 2012/2008?): Aside from discussion of Donald Trump's significant gains among White working-class voters throughout Midwest and Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, another of 2016's most talked-about political trends was a decline in urban African-American turnout. In particular, several studies have been done into Milwaukee's urban Black vote, whose turnout declined significantly from 2012, and may have denied Hillary Clinton the state (Sommerhauser). Among the factors that may have caused this include Wisconsin's voter ID laws making it more difficult for urban low-income Black voters to vote (Sommerhauser), general disillusionment with 2016's national politics, and disillusionment with the Obama administration over stagnant post-Recession economic conditions in urban Black neighborhoods (Singal). While Wisconsin's rural areas will be critical for Joe Biden to claw back in for a statewide victory, Democrats will have to increase urban Black turnout in Milwaukee from 2016, something that Milwaukee County (which is majority-Black) is likely to reveal. 

Honorable Mentions: (County features) (Presidential electoral history and reasons for importance)

• Arizona:
• Pima County (Tucson; significant Hispanic, retiree, and student populations) (increasingly-blue county; exact margins matter)
• Florida:
• Osceola County (Kissimmee; large Puerto Rican population) (increasingly-blue county, exact margins and turnout matter)
• Iowa:
• Dubuque County (Dubuque; historically-Catholic blue-collar locale) (longtime Democratic-narrow Trump county)
• Michigan:
• Saginaw County (Saginaw; historical blue-collar industrial county) (longtime modest Democratic-narrow Trump county)
• Minnesota:
• St. Louis County (Duluth; historical blue-collar mining and industrial county) (longtime Democratic county; voted for Clinton, but swung heavily from Obama '12)
• New Hampshire: 
• Hillsborough County (Manchester/Nashua; wealthy Boston exurbs) (narrow Obama-narrow Trump county)
• North Carolina:
• New Hanover County (Wilmington; significant retiree and middle-class population) (longtime light-red county; voted narrowly for McCain, Romney, and Trump)
• Texas: 
• Southern Texas/Rio Grande Valley counties (Group of longtime-Democratic, majority-Hispanic counties) (voted for Clinton, generally underperformed compared to Obama; margins and turnout matter) 
• Utah: 
• Weber County (Ogden; Salt Lake City exurbs) (historically-Republican, Trump-won county with significant student population and Trump-skeptical Mormons)
• Wisconsin:
• Kenosha County (Kenosha; blue-collar industrial city) (longtime Democratic county; voted narrowly for Trump)

Works Cited:

Barry, Kevin. "Speaking about the hardships in a changing world leads the way for Portage County voters." ABC5 News Cleveland, 12 Mar. 2020, www.news5cleveland.com/news/political/elections-local/speaking-about-the-hardships-in-a-changing-world-leads-the-way-for-portage-county-voters. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Bump, Philip. "Why the Hispanic vote in Florida is particularly worrisome to Biden’s campaign." The Washington Post, 14 Sept. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/14/why-hispanic-vote-florida-is-particularly-worrisome-bidens-campaign/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Campbell, Colin. "7 rural NC counties flip ‘bloodshot red’ for Trump." Charlotte The News & Observer, 12 Nov. 2016, www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article114427363.html. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Cohn, Nate. "How the Obama Coalition Crumbled, Leaving an Opening for Trump." New York Times, 23 Dec. 2016, www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/upshot/how-the-obama-coalition-crumbled-leaving-an-opening-for-trump.html. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Coleman, J. Miles. "NC-9: West to the Left, East to the Right." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 26 Sept. 2019, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/nc-09-west-to-the-left-east-to-the-right/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020.  

Cunningham, Meg. "In Atlanta, reverse migration is beginning to skew suburbs blue." ABC News, abcnews.go.com/Politics/atlanta-reverse-migration-beginning-skew-suburbs-blue/story?id=67106895. Accessed 20 Nov. 2019. 

Dias, Elizabeth, and Jennifer Steinhauer. "Arizona Election Results: 6 Key Takeaways on Sinema Victory." The New York Times, 13 Nov. 2018, www.nytimes.com/2018/11/13/us/politics/arizona-election-kyrsten-sinema.html. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Finnegan, Michael, Seema Metha. "Trump’s response to the coronavirus disaster causes trouble for his campaign." Los Angeles Times, 1 Jun. 2020, www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-01/trump-campaign-iowa-coronavirus-pandemic-advertising. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Funk, Tim. "Here’s one key way Trump plans to win North Carolina." Charlotte Observer, 19 Sept. 2020, www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article245816340.html. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Galston, William. "New polling: Eroding support from white working-class women threatens Trump’s reelection." Brookings Institution, 3 Jun. 2020, www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/06/03/new-polling-eroding-support-from-white-working-class-women-threatens-trumps-reelection/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Garcia-Navarro, Lulu. "The Cuban Vote In Florida." National Public Radio, www.npr.org/2018/11/11/666646389/the-cuban-vote-in-florida. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

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Godden, Paige. "How Local Dems Plan To Win Back Obama/Trump Counties In 2020." Iowa Starting Line, iowastartingline.com/2020/01/12/how-local-dems-plan-to-win-back-obama-trump-counties-in-2020/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Gomez, Alan, Ledyard King, and Rebecca Morin. "Biden is getting trounced with Cuban American voters in Florida, a trend that could tip the state to Trump." USA Today, 16 Sept. 2020, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/15/joe-biden-lags-trump-cuban-american-voters-latinos-florida/5756126002/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

González, Daniel. "In an Arizona county, anger at Trump spurs Latinos to vote." USA Today, 26 Sept. 2020, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/09/26/latino-voters-maricopa-county-arizona-trump-wall/90820256/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Halpin, John, and Ruy Teixeira. "The Return of the Obama Coalition." Center for American Progress, 8 Nov. 2012, www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/news/2012/11/08/44348/the-return-of-the-obama-coalition/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

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Joyner, Tammy. "Fayette’s voting rights feud: A petri dish of social, political change." Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 4 Sept. 2016, www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/fayette-voting-rights-feud-petri-dish-social-political-change/tG6duwCSOTOWoTwhXAq0EJ/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Kondik, Kyle, Larry Sabato, and Geoffrey Skelley. "16 For ’16: Bite-sized observations on a wild election." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 17 Nov. 2016, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/16-for-16/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Kraus, Scott. "How Donald Trump managed to turn Pennsylvania red." The Morning Call, 9 Nov. 2016, www.mcall.com/news/local/mc-how-trump-won-pennsylvania-20161109-story.html. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Montanaro, Domenico. "The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election." National Public Radio, 7 Nov. 2016, www.npr.org/2016/11/07/500379215/the-13-bellwether-counties-that-could-decide-the-election. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Nuño, Stephen A., and Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta. "Viewpoints: Why exit polls are wrong about Latino voters in Arizona." AZCentral, 26 Nov. 2016, www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2016/11/26/exit-polls-wrong-latino-voters-arizona/94288570/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

"Ohio governor election results 2018." CNN, last updated 21 Dec. 2018, www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/ohio/governor. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

"Ohio senate election results 2018." CNN, last updated 21 Dec. 2018, https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/ohio/senate. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Polsanek, Tom. "Rural Iowans ponder Trump alternatives as China trade war drags on." Reuters, 20 May 2019, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trade/rural-iowans-ponder-trump-alternatives-as-china-trade-war-drags-on-idUSKCN1SQ1LG. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Pramuk, Jacob. "‘Tariff Man’ Trump heads to Iowa, a state scarred by his trade war ahead of 2020." NBC News, 11 Jun. 2019, www.cnbc.com/2019/06/11/2020-election-news-trump-heads-to-iowa-amid-tariff-trade-war.html. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

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Prose, J.D. "Trump barely won Pennsylvania in 2016. His 2020 election may depend on keeping this swing state." Beaver County Times, 13 Oct. 2020, www.timesonline.com/in-depth/news/2020/10/12/can-trump-hang-pennsylvania-swing-state-key-2020-election/3511068001/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Rodriguez, Sabrina. "Why Trump is winning on trade in Iowa." Politico, 15 Dec. 2019, www.politico.com/news/2019/12/15/2020-democrats-trump-iowa-trade-085191. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Rothenberg, Stuart. "Donald Trump’s Maricopa problem." Roll Call, 28 Apr. 2020, www.rollcall.com/2020/04/28/donald-trumps-maricopa-problem/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Saporta, Maria. "Metro Atlanta region turning bluer, including Gwinnett, Cobb and Henry." SaportaReport, 14 Nov. 2016, saportareport.com/metro-atlanta-region-turning-bluer-including-gwinnett-cobb-henry/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Sesin, Carmen. "What's behind Trump's gain in Cuban American support?" NBC News, 2 Oct. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/what-s-behind-trump-s-gain-cuban-american-support-n1241601. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Siders, David. "‘It’s a big, big swing’: Trump loses ground with white voters." Politico, 21 Sept. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/09/21/trump-white-voters-support-418420. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Singal, Jesse. "Why Black Voters in Milwaukee Weren’t Enthused by Hillary Clinton." New York Magazine, 22 Nov. 2016, nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/11/why-black-voters-in-milwaukee-werent-enthused-by-clinton.html. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Smith, Diane, and Anna Tinsley. "The midterm election had many asking an unusual question: Did Tarrant turn blue?" Fort Worth Star-Telegram, 9 Nov. 2018, www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article221281440.html. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Sommerhauser, Mark. "Study: Black voter turnout in Wisconsin declined by nearly one-fifth in 2016." Wisconsin State-Journal, 7 Nov. 2017, madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/study-black-voter-turnout-in-wisconsin-declined-by-nearly-one-fifth-in-2016/article_d3e72e41-96a0-51fb-83ba-11dfc6693daf.html. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Terruso, Julia. "Trump’s path to winning Pa. runs through small Rust Belt towns — like one near Biden’s hometown." The Philadelphia Inquirer, 8 Aug. 2020, www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/carbondale-pennsylvania-trump-biden-2020-election-20200808.html. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Tierney, Lauren, and David Weigel. "The six political states of Georgia." The Washington Post, 27 Sept. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/georgia-political-geography/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Vickers, Allen. "Voters in Lackawanna County Say Key Issues Led to Trump’s Victory." WNEF-16 News, 14 Nov. 2016, www.wnep.com/article/news/local/lackawanna-county/voters-in-lackawanna-county-say-key-issues-led-to-trumps-victory/523-e05ad284-b4f2-4d08-b75b-8c5e16c09774. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Wheel, Robert. "The 2016 Streak Breakers." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 6 Oct. 2016, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-2016-streak-breakers/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Wilson, Reid. "The 10 counties that will decide the 2020 election." The Hill, 4 Sept. 2019, thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/459832-the-10-counties-that-will-decide-the-2020-election. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

Woolverton, Paul. "Trump needs North Carolina in 2020 election, but the swing state is a toss-up." Asheville Citizen-Times, 13 Oct. 2020, www.citizen-times.com/story/news/local/2020/10/13/swing-state-north-carolina-key-trump-and-biden-2020-election/5970767002/. Accessed 18 Oct. 2020. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record