No Post Tonight (1/21/2021)

No Post Tonight (1/21/2021)

Hello all readers,

There will not be a blog post tonight. I will be back this coming Sunday at 8pm PST with my post-Georgia runoffs assessment! Until then, feel free to read what content has already been published here. 

California's Recall Process and the Current Gubernatorial Recall Movement

California's Recall Process and the Current Gubernatorial Recall Movement

Introduction: Since California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) was elected to his first term in 2018 with 60% of the vote ("California Governor"), his tenure has become controversial, especially among Republicans. In particular, Newsom's pandemic-related measures have come under fire by conservatives and the business community for being unfair towards businesses (Custodio). Furthermore, Governor Newsom was photographed in November having dinner at the fine dining restaurant French Laundry despite the state's ban on in-person dining, in addition to the fact that Newsom was mingling with members from other households and not wearing a mask indoors (Blood; Lozano; Marinucci). This incident led to widespread criticism focused on accusations of hypocrisy, and intensified the recall movement against the incumbent Governor (Blood; Lozano). Even prior to COVID, there were already multiple movements to recall the governor due to conservative opposition to some of Governor Newsom's policies and associated problems facing the state under his tenure (such as the homeless crisis) (Lozano; Rittiman). In particular, the recall petition cites his decisions to grant some inmates early parole, allow undocumented immigrants to receive state benefits, high taxes, and not using the death penalty against the people's wishes ("Gavin Newsom"; Lozano). 

In American political history, only two governors have been recalled. In 1921, North Dakota Governor Lynn Frazier (R/NP) was recalled, which ironically occurred after his tenure saw the formalization of recall procedures ("Lynn Frazier"). The more famous (and recent) recall took place in 2003, when California Governor Gray Davis (D) was recalled and replaced by the Austrian-born ex-bodybuilder and movie actor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) (Blood). With these facts in mind, today's post will go over how the recall process in California works and discuss the current situation with the recall movement against Governor Newsom. 

In a Nutshell:

Information Sources: historymatters, "Laws governing." 

Long Version: 

• Notice-of-intent-to-recall petition: To start a recall election, proponents must file a notice of intent to recall with an assigned city, county, or state office (in the latter, the California Secretary of State). Such a petition must include a certain number of recall proponents; statewide offices (such as the Governor) require 65 (historymatters). Upon being filed, proponents are required to publicize the intent in local media or in public locations. During this stage, the official being named by the petition has 10 days to provide a response or statement of defense if they want to ("Laws governing"). 
• Circulating recall petition: Upon the notice-of-intent being filed, the Secretary of State's office sends the recall movement a petition form to gather signatures. To qualify for the ballot, the number of required signatures must equal a percentage of voters who participated in the most recent election in which the targeted official ran in. For statewide offices, this percentage is 12%, and at least 1% must come from 5 counties each (historymatters; "Laws governing"). Signatures are then verified and validated, as only registered voters in the jurisdiction of the elected official are eligible to have their signatures counted towards the recall. Those that circulate recall petitions must also meet the same eligibility requirements. Upon reaching the required number of valid signatures (which are verified by local or county election officials), the petition can be filed with the jurisdiction's elections office ("Laws governing"). 
• Recall election planning: Upon being filed and validated, the jurisdiction's elections official must present the petition at the institution's next regular meeting. Per state law, a recall election must be called within 14 days of the petition being presented to the relevant election board, and must be held anywhere from 88-125 days after the petition presentation. If this time period contains a regularly-scheduled election for that official's seat, the recall election must occur on that date ("Laws governing"). 
• Recall election procedures: California recall ballots feature two questions; the first question asks whether voters want to recall the incumbent official, while the second question has a list of replacement candidates vying for the position, who must register by a specific day before the election ("Laws governing"). As explained below, the second question is only applied if a majority of voters choose to recall the incumbent (historymatters). 
• Outcome A (Incumbent not recalled): If a majority of recall voters choose not to recall the official, they remain in office until the next election (historymatters). 
• Outcome B (Incumbent recalled): If a majority of recall voters choose to recall the official, their term will be terminated (no pun intended considering California's history, above). The replacement candidate with the most votes is elected to the position, who takes office soon after to finish the term of the recalled official (historymatters; "Laws governing").  

Current Situation: Per a recent tweet by California Target Book Research Director Robert Pyers, around 723,000 signatures have been submitted for the current recall movement out of around 1.5 million that are needed. Out of those signatures that have been submitted, around 85% have been valid, meaning that around another 1 million valid signatures will have to be collected and submitted by March 17, 2021. A vast majority of the valid signatures were submitted starting in early November, when the recall campaign began to gain steam (@rpyers). 

General attention on the recall movement has significantly increased since the "French Laundry" controversy, especially with a large influx of fundraising to the movement and increased endorsements by national and state GOP figures (Marinucci). State Democrats have increasingly reacted to the recall movement, controversially linking the movement to the January 6th U.S. Capitol riot (Kreutz). Meanwhile, several high-profile Republicans have been pondering running in 2022's gubernatorial election, possibly sensing weakness around the incumbent governor, regardless if the recall movement succeeds (Blood). Despite the persistent movement to unseat him, it is notable that Governor Newsom's overall approval rating is still positive as the pandemic rages on (Marinucci). 

Works Cited:

@rpyers. "@CASosVote

 posts its 7th update of the signatures submitted for the recall of Governor Gavin Newsom. After submitting 442,195 between 11/6 and 12/7, 225,949 more were submitted from 12/8 to 1/6. Current estimated total:  723,661 / 1,495,709 https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/recalls/newsom-heatlie-seventh.pdf." Twitter, 15 Jan. 2021, 5:48pm, twitter.com/rpyers/status/1350258561796853760. Accessed 17 Jan. 2021. 

Blood, Michael R. "With his star dimmed, California’s Newsom could face recall." Associated Press, 13 Dec. 2020, apnews.com/article/gavin-newsom-california-recall-a50b5728aa4f9a4b71241e3429881ceb. Accessed 16 Jan. 2021. 

"California governor election results 2018." CNN, last modified 21 Dec. 2018, www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/california/governor. Accessed 17 Jan. 2021. 

Custodio, Spencer. "Republican Officials Join Recall Effort Against Gov. Newsom for Coronavirus Restrictions." Orange County Voice, 9 Dec. 2020, voiceofoc.org/2020/12/republican-officials-join-recall-effort-against-gov-newsom-for-coronavirus-restrictions/. Accessed 17 Jan. 2021. 

"Gavin Newsom recall, Governor of California (2019-2021)." Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Gavin_Newsom_recall,_Governor_of_California_(2019-2021). Accessed 17 Jan. 2021. 

historymatters. "How we can recall Todd Gloria." San Diego Reader, Internet Archive Wayback Machine, 6 May 2013, web.archive.org/web/20210117034226/https://www.sandiegoreader.com/weblogs/ive-got-issues/2013/may/06/how-we-can-recall-todd-gloria/. Accessed 17 Jan. 2021. 

Kreutz, Liz. "California Democrats launch effort to discredit growing campaign to recall Gov. Newsom." ABC 7 News, 12 Jan. 2021, abc7news.com/california-governor-gavin-newsom-recall-democrat-party-gov/9601695/. Accessed 17 Jan. 2021. 

"Laws governing recall in California." Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Laws_governing_recall_in_California. Accessed 17 Jan. 2021. 

Lozano, Alicia Victoria. "Recall effort against California governor an attempt to 'destabilize the political system,' analysts say." NBC News, 20 Dec. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/recall-effort-against-california-governor-attempt-destabilize-political-system-analysts-n1251498/. Accessed 16 Jan. 2021. 

"Lynn J. Frazier." State Historical Society of North Dakota, www.history.nd.gov/exhibits/governors/governors12.html. Accessed 16 Jan. 2021. 

Marinucci, Carla. "Long shot Newsom recall drive gets serious in California." Politico, 16 Dec. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16/newsom-recall-california-447019. Accessed 16 Jan. 2021. 

Rittiman, Brandon. "Recalling the Governor: easy to try, hard to actually do." ABC10, 4 Oct. 2019, www.abc10.com/article/news/politics/recalling-governor-newsom/103-c791c6d9-d2be-44b2-838a-97a32d342bde. Accessed 16 Jan. 2021.