Examining 116th House Member-District Age Gaps
Introduction: The 116th Congress has been described by pundits and analysts as one of the most diverse ever, with a significant number of young Representatives being among the freshman class (Lee and Panetta). Despite this trend, the House continues to be dominated by older members, as the average age difference between Americans and aggregate House members is around 20 years ("How Old is Congress?"). Simultaneously, the recent surge of young progressives campaigning for the House (discussed in more detail in a previous post) has brought forward a new movement seeking to increase the representation of younger Americans in America's political institutions, including the House (Molly and Elliott). With these facts in mind, today's post will explore the extent of the member-district age gap within the 116th House generally, within the two parties, and among the 116th freshman class.
Methodology: To analyze the extent of the member-district age gap amongst 116th House members, I will be comparing the ages of 116th Congress House members to the most recent (2018) median age in their respective districts. The dataset comprises House members and their parties at the time that the 116th Congress took office, in January 2019. As such, it includes members who took the oath in January 2019, but subsequently resigned or passed away while in office. It also does not include two party switches that have occurred in the 116th so far, that of Justin Amash (MI-3) from Republican to Libertarian and Jeff Van Drew (NJ-2) from Democrat to Republican; both are listed with their January 2019 party affiliation. With these facts in mind, 440 members (including the 6 delegates) took the oath in January 2019, with the only excluded seat being NC-9, which was in the middle of an investigation over allegations of electoral manipulation, and did not hold a special election until later in the year (Taylor).
Ages of House members came from a Worldpress page, which was the only source I was able to find that featured a compiled list of the ages of 116th Congressional House members (Schure). Since the ages listed on the page were updated in 2020, I subtracted 2 from each member's age to align with the most recent (2018) district age data (see below). In addition, 2018 freshman member Guy Reschenthaler (R, PA-14)'s age was not included on the Worldpress page; I manually researched his age from the Congressional biographical directory ("Reschenthaler, Guy").
Median Congressional district age data from 2018 for the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico came from the Census Bureau's "My Congressional District" feature ("My Congressional District"). Median age data for the other territories (American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Marianas Islands, and the Virgin Islands) was taken from the CIA World Factbook, with 2017 featuring the most recent data ("The World Factbook"). Because the 1-year difference is unlikely to be significant, I will be using the 2017 data in the dataset.
The member-district age gap (thereafter referred to as "age gap") was manually calculated by subtracting each member's age and their district's median age. A positive value indicates a district whose member is older than the district's median age, while negative values indicate districts whose members are younger than the district's median age.
Data on which House members were freshman in the 116th Congress was inserted from CNN's 2018 House election map, where each District's race had a notation on whether the winner (or loser) was an incumbent ("House Election Results 2018"). For the purposes of this project, those counting as House Freshman include both first-time members and those who previously served in the House, retired or lost re-election, and came back in 2018 (i.e. for 2018, Arizona's Ann Kirkpatrick, Hawaii's Ed Case, and Nevada's Steven Horsford).
Results:
Table 1: 116th House Summary Statistics
Notes: There are 440 total observations. All standard deviations were found using the Excel function "STDEV.P". All values except for those under "2018 Freshman Class" refer to years. "2018 Freshman Class" values are either 0 or 1 (1 being a part of the freshman class, and vice-versa for 0). Under the quartiles column, numbers in red indicate values located between the 25th and 75th percentiles of each variable.
Table 2: Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 3: Simple OLS Regression Results
Note: All regression results are simple IV-DV regression results. Each sub-category result refers to the corresponding main IV broken down by sub-categories (in this case, parties and freshman class status), and do not represent control variables. Regression results colored in green are statistically-significant at the 0.05 level or less.
House-wide: Per the summary statistics in Table 1, the average member age for 116th Congress House members is 56 years, which is still relatively high considering the recent attention to younger members and challengers. On the other hand, the average House median district age is around 38 years old, making the average difference between the two being 17 years. Based on these facts, and in parallel with existing research, House members are 17 years older than their District's median ages on average.
Per the correlation results on Table 2, a moderately-negative correlation exists between median district ages and age gaps, meaning that on average, an increase in median district age is associated with a smaller age gap and vice-versa. On the other hand, the negative correlation between median district age and member age is relatively weak, at -.093. Meanwhile, member ages are on average heavily correlated with the member-district age gap.
Per the regression results on Table 3, district median ages have a statistically-significant negative relationship with both member ages and age gaps. However, member ages do not have a statistically-significant relationship with the member-district age gap, although a positive relationship does exist. These results indicate that a significant gap between the ages of members and their districts exists, particularly for districts with younger median ages.
Partisan differences: When comparing 116th House Democrats to Republicans, there is very little difference in the average House member age and the average median ages of the districts they represent. However, it is notable that House Democrats have a higher average age gap, as the average House Democrat is almost 20 years older than their average District's median age. At the same time, House Democrats have wider variation in both member ages and age gaps.
Per the correlation results, neither House Democrats or Republicans have a strong correlation with either the age gap or average member ages. However, it is notable that House Democrats are positively correlated with both measures while House Republicans feature negative correlations, meaning that Democrats on average have larger age gaps and member ages generally relative to Republicans.
Per the regression results, when dividing the district ages (IV) / member age (DV) regression model by party, the relationship between Democratic districts' median ages and the ages of their members is statistically significant at the 5% level in the negative direction, while Republican district ages are not statistically significant with member ages, although the two have a negative relationship. When dividing the district ages (IV) / age gap (DV) model by party, both Democratic and Republican district median ages are negatively-associated with the age gap. When breaking down the member age (IV) / age gap (DV) regression model by party, the ages of both Democrats and Republican members are positively associated with their corresponding age gaps, and are both statistically significant at the 5% level. These results reveal that while both House Democrats and Republicans are generally older than their districts, Democrats in particular feature a significant number of older members sitting in districts whose residents are far younger.
Table 4: 2018 House Freshman Class Summary Statistics
Note: There are 90 total observations; 61 are Democrats and 29 are Republicans. All standard deviations were found using the Excel function "STDEV.P". All values refer to years. Under the quartiles column, numbers in red indicate values located between the 25th and 75th percentiles of each variable.
2018 freshman class: The 116th Congress summary statistics in Table 1 show that 20% of the 116th House was composed of freshman, with 26% of the Democrats and 15% of Republicans being freshman. Table 4 breaks down summary statistics of the 116th House Freshman Class. Per these statistics, 116th House freshman members are 9 years younger than non-freshman members on average, with freshman Democrats being almost 10 years younger than incumbent Democrats. In addition, the average member-district age gap between 116th freshman and non-freshman is almost 10 years.
The correlation results in Table 2 show that 116th House freshman have negative correlations with member-district age gaps and member ages, when compared to non-116th House freshman. In other words, 116th House freshman tend to be younger than the existing members and feature ages that match their respective districts' ages. The regression results in Table 3 show a similar story, in that districts occupied by freshman have lower age gaps and are younger than non-freshman regardless of party. Per the freshman class summary statistics in Table 4, when breaking down the 116th House freshman class by party, the ages of freshman Democrats and Republicans are on average far lower than non-116th freshman, and feature lower age gaps than non-freshman.
Conclusions and Afterthoughts: The results from this quantitative study show that despite the increasing number of younger members elected to the House of Representatives, the chamber continues to be overwhelmingly dominated by older members, and many members are far older than their districts. This remains especially true when considering the significant gaps between the ages of members and their Districts, and the fact that the problem still persists among both House Democrats and Republicans. The 116th House freshman class is notably far younger than non-116th freshman members, and are more in line with their districts' ages than non-freshman.
Depending on the number of future 2020 House primary take downs (discussed here) and general election losses, the older House member age and age gap phenomena will likely persist into the 117th Congress. With the rise of the youth vote and related movements to increase the representation of young Americans in Congress, the 2022 House cycle will be interesting to watch as to whether the age gap significantly reduces in size as a result of increased retirements or primary defeats (noting that 2022 will be the first post-redistricting House cycle after the 2020 Census). Even so, 2020 has and will likely continue the increasing trend of young adults seeking and winning House seats. For example, while this article was originally being written last week, 24-year old (25 on election day) Republican Madison Cawthorn (who is only 1 year older than myself) won the Republican primary in North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, where Rep. Mark Meadows (R) was retiring from (he subsequently became President Trump's Chief of Staff) (Murphy). If Cawthorn wins the November general election, he will be the youngest member of Congress, taking the title from 30 year-old progressive Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14) (Murphy), and would be 20 years younger than his district, whose median age is 45 ("My Congressional District"). Note that the 116th Congress's youngest member relative to their District is Florida Republican Gregory Steube, who is 12.5 years younger than his District.
Once the 117th Congress begins next January, I will likely do a follow-up post on the extent to which the House average member age and age gap have changed, which will be dependent on any future primary defeats and general election defeats that might occur.
Works Cited (Qualitative Sources):
Ball, Molly, and Philip Elliott. "The Biggest Field Yet. No Frontrunner. A Divided Base. Welcome to the 2020 Democratic Primary." Time, 21 Feb. 2020, time.com/longform/2020-democratic-primary/. Accessed 24 Jun. 2020.
"How Old is Congress." Quorum, www.quorum.us/data-driven-insights/the-115th-congress-is-among-the-oldest-in-history/. Accessed 20 Jun. 2020.
Jin, Beatrice. "Congress's incoming class is younger, bluer, and more diverse than ever." Politico, updated 7 Jan. 2019, www.politico.com/interactives/2018/interactive_116th-congress-freshman-younger-bluer-diverse/. Accessed 24 Jun. 2020.
Lee, Samantha, and Grace Panetta. "This graphic shows how much more diverse the House of Representatives is getting." Business Insider, 12 Jan. 2019, www.businessinsider.com/changes-in-gender-racial-diversity-between-the-115th-and-116th-house-2018-12. Accessed 24 Jun. 2020.
Murphy, Brian. "24-year-old defeats candidate backed by Trump, Meadows in GOP Congressional primary." The Charlotte Observer, 23 Jun. 2020, www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article243752012.html. Accessed 27 Jun. 2020.
Data Sources:
"Directory of Representatives." United States House of Representatives, www.house.gov/representatives. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020.
"House election results 2018." CNN, edition.cnn.com/election/2018/results/house. Accessed 19 Jun. 2020.
"My Congressional District." United States Census Bureau, www.census.gov/mycd/?st=56. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020.
"Reschenthaler, Guy." Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, United States Congress, bioguideretro.congress.gov/Home/MemberDetails?memIndex=R000610. Accessed 23 Jun. 2020.
Schure, Teri. "Current members of the U.S. House of Representatives." Wordpress.org, 5 Jan. 2020, www.worldpress.org/article.cfm/current-members-of-the-house-of-representatives. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020.
"The World Factbook: Country Comparison-Median Age." Central Intelligence Agency, 2017, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2177rank.html. Accessed 23 Jun. 2020.
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