The San Joaquin Valley Electoral Politics Project, Part 4: 2008-2016 Presidential Results

Author's Notes: After a multiple-week hiatus, The San Joaquin Valley Politics Project returns, just like the Jedi (and Sith). Things have been fairly busy in my personal life, which has made it hard for me to do the data collection and create related data visualizations to continue this project. Nonetheless, with the presidential election only weeks away, I wanted to cover this relevant topic as part of my pre-2020 election coverage, as the results presented in today's post will feed into discussion of how the Valley could vote in the future based on presidential election trends since the Cold War. 

Furthermore, if you are interested in learning more about politics, current events, and voting, be sure to check out the podcast How About_Vote?, co-hosted by my former graduate school peer, colleague, and friend Martin Sanders. New episodes on that podcast are posted on Mondays until Election Day. 

The San Joaquin Valley Electoral Politics Project, Part 4: 1992-2016 Presidential Results

Introduction: The first two parts of The San Joaquin Valley Electoral Politics Project have focused on recent Gubernatorial and House results, and the third on Senate results from 1998 onwards. Today, I complete the first chapter of the project through exploring 2008-2016 presidential election results in the San Joaquin Valley, and end today's post by exploring what the possible future paths the Valley could take in future presidential elections based on the last few cycles. 

Methodology and Data Collection: Like in previous posts, past election data per county was taken from California's Secretary of State website and transcribed into Excel. In addition, I calculated winning margins, percentages, and winners per county were self-calculated. 

Presidential Election Results:

     2008: As will be explored in later parts of this project, no San Joaquin Valley county voted for Democrats Al Gore or John Kerry in 2000 and 2004, respectively. In 2008, that electoral trend reversed as the economy crashed, George W. Bush left office very unpopular, and Barack Obama forged a new Democratic coalition into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. As part of his statewide and national victory, Obama flipped the "Northern Three" and Fresno counties into the Democratic column (Sullivan). His showing in these four counties was strong enough that the Valley narrowly voted for Republican John McCain by less than 3%. Yet, the "Southern Three" and Madera still voted heavily Republican, preventing further Valley-wide gains on the Democratic side. In particular, Kern County alone gave McCain a 41,300 vote margin, far more than Obama's margin in the "Northern Three" 

     2012: Despite the nationwide Democratic regression due to the stagnant economic recovery (Sullivan), the San Joaquin Valley continued to trend (at a snail's pace) more Democratic in 2012. As part of winning a second term against Mitt Romney (R), Obama improved his victory margin in the San Joaquin Valley compared to 2008. In particular, the solid-red "Southern Three" moved slightly towards the incumbent president despite the national trends. The "Northern Three" also lurched slightly more Democratic, while Metro Fresno (Madera and Fresno) moved slightly-Republican. Despite these changes, the Valley as a whole only lurched slightly towards Obama, voting for Romney by 1.9%. 

     2016: In the first post-Obama presidential election, what would have been a "normal" election was turned upside-down when (now-president) reality TV host and businessman Donald Trump shockingly won the Republican primary despite being controversial. Meanwhile, while Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton (Bill Clinton's wife) won the Democratic nomination, the road there was bumpier than expected due to a significant challenge by Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who pitched radical progressive reforms. Despite election predictors and pundits showing a modest Clinton victory in November, Trump shocked the political world a second time with narrow wins in several Midwest states previously-thought to be favorable for the former first lady. 

     Once again, the San Joaquin Valley went against the national trend, with the Valley trending more Democratic relative to 2012. Of note is Fresno County, which voted for Obama by under 2% in his two elections, and swung to vote for Clinton by 6%. Meanwhile, San Joaquin County gave Clinton a 13% margin, with the Republican percent of the vote dropping below 40%. Even the "Southern Three" trended more Democratic, with Tulare County's Republican margin dropping under 10%, and even Kern County moving 8% more Democratic. Clinton's combined improvements in the "Northern Three" and Metro Fresno led her to win a combined 53,000 vote margin there. Yet, the "Southern Three" and Madera Counties remained solidly-Republican, with Kern alone still providing a 30,000 winning margin to Trump. The only county that moved more Republican was Stanislaus, although as shown below, that shift was slight. 

     These shifts allowed Clinton to win the Valley by 8,000 votes (0.5%), becoming the first (per my data) to do so since LBJ's national landslide in 1964. As will be explored in future editions, Democratic presidential candidates Hubert Humphrey (1968), Jimmy Carter (1980) and Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996) all came close to winning the Valley, but it wouldn't be until 2016 that it would happen. 

Table 1: Combined Table of 2008-2016 Presidential Results

(To) Infinity 2020 and Beyond!: As of the time this post is published, less than four weeks remain until the 2020 presidential election, which could answer the question if the San Joaquin Valley will continue to move more Democratic or if a Republican resurgence might take place. With polling indicating a Biden win likely to exceed Clinton's 2016 numbers (Adolphe et al.), it seems likely that the Valley will probably continue to trend more Democratic. The degree to which it does will likely hinge on youth and minority turnout, whose turnout rates are low by national standards in the Valley (Romero, 8-9). On the other hand, if conservative turnout throughout the Valley increases relative to 2016, it is possible that the Valley will flip back to red. 

Beyond this year, clues in socio-demographic and -political trends discussed in this project can be used to extrapolate possible futures for the San Joaquin Valley's presidential voting habits. The continued diversification of the Valley, as well as increasing political engagement among young adults, are likely to benefit Democrats running in the Valley. Yet, another critical trend has the possibility to benefit the Republicans, or at the very least, significantly reduce net Democratic gains. This trend is the continued and future suburban expansion in the Valley, with Madera's Rio Mesa project being a prominent in-progress example (Castellon). Many of these new suburban developments, especially on the outskirts of the Valley's cities, tend to be conservative-leaning (this was gleaned through observing the NYT 2016 Precinct map, and comparing election results by precinct to socio-demographic statistics from the Statistical Atlas). The question of which trend will be more dominant will likely define the San Joaquin Valley's future presidential election trends for the next few cycles. 

Past Editions of The San Joaquin Valley Electoral Politics Project:

• Part 1: 2010-2018 Gubernatorial Results
• Part 2: 2012-2018 House Results
• Part 3: 1998-2018 Senate Results

Data Sources:

"Statement of Vote: November 4, 2008 General Election." California Secretary of State Debra Bowen, 13 Dec. 2008, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2008-general/sov_complete.pdf, 17-22. Accessed 8 Oct. 2020. 

"Statement of Vote: November 6, 2012 General Election." California Secretary of State Debra Bowen, 6 Jan. 2011, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2012-general/sov-complete.pdf, 17-19. Accessed 8 Oct. 2020. 

"Statement of Vote: November 8, 2016 General Election." California Secretary of State Alex Padilla, 16 Dec. 2016, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2016-general/sov/2016-complete-sov.pdf, 17-19. Accessed 8 Oct. 2020. 

Works Cited:

Adolphe, Juweek, Pablo Gutierrez, Frank Hulley-Jones, and Ashley Kirk. "US election polls tracker: who is leading in the swing states?" The Guardian, 8 Oct. 2020, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/08/us-election-polls-tracker-swing-states-biden-trump. Accessed 8 Oct. 2020. 

Castellon, David. "Madera County Housing Boom Could Spur at Least One New City." The Business Journal, 25 Oct. 2018, thebusinessjournal.com/madera-county-housing-boom-could-spur-at-least-one-new-city/. Accessed 8 Oct. 2020. 

Romero, Mindy. "Policy Brief Issue 7." The California Civic Engagement Project, Jan. 2014, static1.squarespace.com/static/57b8c7ce15d5dbf599fb46ab/t/57fffcee6a49638b421d99a4/1476394224513/UCDavisCCEPPolicyBriefIssue7.pdf. Accessed 8 Oct. 2020. 

Sullivan, Robert David. "How the red and blue map evolved over the past century." America: The Jesuit Review, 29 Jun. 2016, www.americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/how-red-and-blue-map-evolved-over-past-century. Accessed 8 Oct. 2020. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record