Assessing 2020's Electoral Bellwethers Part 1: Congressional Races
Introduction: Prior to Election Day 2020, I crafted several articles examining potential bellwethers for the 2020 elections, including
Congressional (
part 2) races and counties at the
Presidential-level. With most of the general results in by this point, there is a lot to unpack in regards to 2020's major electoral trends. Today's post will combine the districts and Senate races from the two Congressional bellwether articles, and assess what these places revealed about the election. The next post this coming Thursday will do the same for presidential county results. As you will notice, I added (copyright-free) images showing the location of each House district to help in understanding each district's location and features. In the future, I plan to add such images when talking about House districts or counties to aid in understanding each district's location and makeup.
Senate Races:
Alaska (Are any non-New England states still open to electing non-binary (partisan-wise) Senators?):
Maybe, but not in an election with significant split-ticketing favoring Republican candidates.
Like with many of the other races profiled here, decreased ticket-splitting during this year's election likely doomed Senate Democratic candidates such as Gross, even if they aligned themselves towards their states. While Gross was technically an "Independent" candidate, the fact that he was backed by the Democratic Party and held Democratic-leaning policy beliefs may have been too much to overcome his "independent" image in the face of down-ballot ticket-splitting (Bohrer).
Georgia Regular Senate (Can the Democrats' "rising coalition" prevail in the Deep South?):
(Despite this race technically being unresolved because of the January runoff, some notable trends can be gleaned from the first-round results)
Maybe, but the changes required for Georgia's Democratic "Rising Coalition" to easily prevail are not happening fast enough.
In particular, while Democrat Jon Ossoff performed well for a Georgia Democrat in the regular Senate election, he trailed Biden by almost 100,000 votes (Bronner), and unlike the presidential candidate, did not win a plurality of votes (M. Harris). Much of this is speculated to be the result of Trump-disliking suburban Republicans continuing to vote Republican downballot, similar to other races nationwide, (Bush and Norwood), and the "undervote" effect (where voters only vote in the top-most race and leave lower-level races blank (M. Johnson). Looking at the first-round votes, outer suburban counties around Atlanta (e.g. Paulding, Forwyth, Bartow, Fayette, Cherokee) that trended significantly Democratic compared to 2016 at the presidential-level continued to vote more Republican in the Senate race. Even in Atlanta proper and its close-in suburbs, the Democratic vote share was lower than Biden's. In rural areas, this split-ticketing effect still occurred, as Biden overperformed compared to Ossoff in several smaller cities and rural counties, even majority-Black areas of the state ("Georgia Election Results").
Iowa (Is the Upper Midwest still politically-flexible or is it truly becoming more Republican?):
Iowa and the rural Upper Midwest generally are definitely becoming more permanently Republican.
Between Trump's two victories in Iowa, Democrats' failure to take back the governorship in 2018, Senator Joni Ernst (R)'s solid re-election this year, and the Republican flips of IA-1 (and likely) IA-2, all signs are indicative of a larger red trend in this formerly-flexible state. While Biden improved over Clinton's margins in parts of the Upper Midwest, which included winning back multiple Obama-Trump counties, many rural counties continued to slide away from Democrats not just at the top, but also at the bottom. Even in counties where Biden improved relative to Clinton, he did not reach 2012's or 2008's Democratic vote shares. This will be discussed further in the second 2020 bellwether post with Cerro Gordo County's 2020 presidential results relative to past years.
Kansas (Can Democrats successfully break into longtime red states?):
Even with good candidates, not in an era with extensive partisan voting and downballot ticket-splitting favoring Republicans.
Since this theme is going to become a broken record on this blog, I won't go into depth too much, but a low level of ticket-splitting doomed Bollier, who was projected to need a significant amount of crossover appeal to win the Sunflower State (Gillepsie et al.).
Maine (Can moderate New England Republicanism survive in today's polarized era?):
Yes, even at the Federal-level.
One of the big upsets of Election Night 2020 was moderate Republican Sen. Susan Collins' successful re-election despite pre-election polling showing her behind Democrat Sara Gideon. Like other Republican candidates in House and Senate races, post-election analysis has indicated that a significant amount of split-ticketing among moderate and conservative voters was responsible for Collins' reelection (Berman). This effect does not just apply to Maine, but also neighboring New Hampshire, where Republican Governor Chris Sununu won a solid re-election and Republicans retook the state's two legislative bodies. Like Maine and elsewhere, extensive downballot ticket-splitting was the cause of these electoral trends (Ganley and McIntyre).
Michigan (How high is the ceiling for Black Republican Senate candidates in the Trump era?):
Pretty high, not just in Michigan, and not just for Black Republicans, although the ceiling depends the specific election, the corresponding candidate(s) on both sides, and the national environment.
Beyond Michigan, one of the most notable electoral trends was the diversity of the Republican Party's 2020 freshman class, especially along lines of race, ethnicity, and gender. For example, in Southern California, Republicans Michelle Steele (CA-48) and Young Kim (CA-39) defeated 2018 freshman Democrats to become the first Korean-American women in Congress (Do). Furthermore, the GOP elected several young Latino members into Congress, including Tony Gonzalez in TX-23, and two members in South Florida (discussed below) who ran on Trump's Cuban-American vote surge (Akin; Narea). Elsewhere, multiple first-time Black Republicans won House races, including Burgess Owens, who narrowly defeated freshman Ben McAdams (D, UT-4) in suburban Salt Lake City (Roche) and Bryon Donalds in the open-seat FL-19 (Williams).
Going back to Michigan, James almost pulled off an upset victory (
something I considered in my last pre-election post), despite most polls showing incumbent Senator Gary Peters (D) with a solid lead. After vote-counting was complete, the relatively-obscure Peters pulled ahead and was projected to win a narrow victory (Stewart). While macro-level trends (e.g. the GOP vote surge and ticket-splitting) were just as important, this Senate election reveals that nonwhite Republican candidates could be seeing a renaissance, coupled with the GOP's significant gains among nonwhite voting groups.
Montana (Can popular red-state Democratic governors still win Senate races?):
Not in an era with extensive partisan voting and downballot ticket-splitting favoring Republicans.
While there was a significant amount of ticket-splitting in this race, the lack of extensive Trump/Downballot Democratic ticket-splitting doomed Governor Steve Bullock (D)'s hope to flip the seat blue (Dennison). This is in contrast to Montana's other Senator, Jon Tester (D), who narrowly won another term in 2018 by attracting enough Trump voters in the rural state (Michels). In the end, both Bullock and Biden lost the state by double-digits, although the former ran further ahead than the latter (Dennison).
North Carolina (Regardless of who wins, what will the party coalitions look like?):
Democrats: Educated suburbanites, rural Black voters, urban voters, college students and young adults (J. Johnson)
Republicans: Less-educated and middle-class small-to-medium-sized cities, rural White voters, exurban voters, increasing number of (especially rural) nonwhite voters (especially Latinos and some Native Americans) (Carter; Funk and Morill; McGreal)
Despite both Cunningham and Biden losing this perennial swing state, even the county-level map reveals important trends of what both party coalitions were composed of this year, and who turned out at higher levels. Biden and Cunningham both performed well in the major cities and suburbs (e.g. Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Greensboro/Winston-Salem, Asheville, Wilmington, Fayetteville), college towns such as Chapel Hill (UNC), and majority African-American parts of the state ("North Carolina Election"). On the other hand, Trump's and Tillis's narrow wins of North Carolina were not only based off of White voters, but a significant proportion of rural minority voters, such as the Lumbee Native Americans (to be discussed further in a later post) (Carter). In addition, Trump's extensive support in North Carolina's suburbs was enough to keep the state, especially outside the main cities (Funk and Morill).
South Carolina (How powerful will the African-American vote be in more conservative Southern states?):
Somewhat powerful, but the GOP wave and decreased Presidential/Senate ticket-splitting for downballot Democrats minimized the Black vote's electoral power in this race.
Despite polls showing a close race in the closing days before Election Day, Sen. Lindsay Graham (R) easily fended off Democrat Jaime Harrison's strong challenge (Egan). While I was not able to find any sources about Black turnout in South Carolina specifically, post-election analysis has found an increase in Black turnout nationwide (A. Harris). In South Carolina's Senate race, Harrison performed well among the group, but other factors were against him, especially the GOP wave consisting of white groups such as college-educated and young adults who voted for Trump. In addition, the extensively-mentioned ticket-splitting among moderate, Republican, and independent Biden voters likely minimized Harrison's potential to win this red state (Lasley et al.).
House Races:
Arizona's 6th (How far will the traditionally-Republican Sun Belt suburbs fall in 2020?):
Image Source: "File:Arizona US Congressional District 6 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 May 2014, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Arizona_US_Congressional_District_6_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
At the House level, not enough to flip blue. At the presidential, they fell pretty far (to be discussed further in future posts).
Like other races profiled here, the GOP voting surge and increased Biden/downballot split-ticketing allowed Rep. David Schweikert (R) to narrowly win another term despite recent scandals that resulted in him being censured by the House Oversight Committee (Hansen).
Colorado's 3th (Are QAnon-supporting candidates too toxic even for moderately-red districts?):
Image Source: "File:Colorado US Congressional District 3 (since 2013).tif."
Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Colorado_US_Congressional_District_3_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
(Typo: On the original post, I labeled this district as "CO-5." The correct district is CO-3.)
Maybe, but macro-level factors were probably more influential in this race.
Like other races profiled here, the GOP voting surge likely allowed soon-to-be-Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) to win CO-5 despite her controversial support for (debunked) "QAnon" conspiracy theories (Axelrod).
Florida's 26th (How will Florida's critical Cuban-American population vote this year?):
Image Source: "File:Florida US Congressional District 26 (since 2013).tif."
Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 Mar. 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Florida_US_Congressional_District_26_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
Note: The map posted above does not reflect the current district boundaries, as it shows the pre-2016 boundaries that were changed due to court-mandated redistricting. However, the general location of the district is the same as of now (Klas). I used the above map because I could not find a copyright-free map of the new district boundaries.
Very Republican.
This may sound like a broken record, but the extent of the Cuban-American vote for Trump significantly assisted him in not only winning the state, but also contributed to the knockouts of two first-year Democratic House members, Reps. Debbie Muscarsel-Powell (FL-26) and Donna Shalala (FL-27) (Golden; Rodriguez). In September and October, some pundits began to warn of Trump's consolidation of, and increasing support from South Florida's Cuban-American population. This trend was speculated to make Muscarsel-Powell's re-election bid more difficult (Gomaz et al.). However, going into Election Day, the consensus was that while Muscarsel-Powell was likely to win re-election, they were not entirely safe (Rodriguez). In the end, Muscarsel-Powell lost to Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez (R) by 4% (Akin).
Illinois's 13th (To what extent will COVID-19 impact student turnout?):
Image Source: "File:Illinois US Congressional District 13 (since 2013).tif."
Wikimedia Commons, last modified 6 Apr. 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Illinois_US_Congressional_District_13_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
Hard to say, but macro-level factors were probably more influential in this race.
Post-election analysis and discussion has indicated that young adult and student turnout this year ended up increasing significantly from 2016 (Pike), although said turnout remains lower than the estimated national rate (Molla). Yet, while youth turnout was likely critical for Biden's national victory (Pike), other factors were at play in districts such as IL-13. In particular, the GOP voter surge combined with ticket-splitting from a significant number of Biden voters, and a likely drop in college town turnout due to COVID-19 probably impacted Democrats' ability to win red districts such as IL-13. Looking at IL-13's 2020 House results compared to 2018, incumbent Bost (R) received a significant vote bump in rural counties, while the main college town counties of Champaign and McLean featured a relative wash from 2018, which encompasses the trends mentioned in the previous sentence ("Illinois House Elections"; "Illinois House of Representatives").
Indiana's 5th and Missouri's 2nd (Will the normally-Republican suburbs of the Lower Midwest falter?):
Image Sources: "File:Indiana US Congressional District 5 (since 2013).tif."
Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Indiana_US_Congressional_District_5_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
"File:Missouri US Congressional District 2 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, last updated 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Missouri_US_Congressional_District_2_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
Like AZ-6 above, at the presidential-level, yes. At the House-level, not enough to turn blue.
Like other races profiled here, the GOP voting surge and increased Biden/downballot Republican split-ticketing likely helped lift Rep. Ann Wagner (R, MO-2) to another term (Rosenbaum), and assisted Victoria Spartz (R) in winning the open IN-5 despite Democratic hopes to flip the district (Gibson and Lange).
Minnesota's 7th (Can the Republicans permanently transfer Trump's 2016 rural White Midwest gains downballot?):
Image Source: "File:Minnesota US Congressional District 7 (since 2013).tif."
Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Minnesota_US_Congressional_District_7_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
Yes, and not just in this district.
Despite Rep. Collin Peterson (D, MN-7)'s longtime strength in a conservative district, this year's electoral trends were too much for him, as Minnesota Senate President Michelle Fischbach (R) won a double-digit victory over the longtime incumbent (G. `Schneider). This will be discussed in detail in later posts, but downballot Republicans in the once-Democratic Upper Midwest had a good night, between flipping MN-7, narrowly winning back IA-1 after 2018 rising star Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) flipped the district in 2018, and potentially flipping the open IA-2 (which may not be resolved for a while due to a likely
single-digits-close vote margin). In addition, Reps. Ron Kind (D, WI-3) and Cheri Bustos (D, IL-17), both of whom represent Trump 2016 and 2020 districts, nearly lost re-election bids, despite both winning solid victories in 2016 and 2018. First-year Rep. Cindy Axne (D) also had a narrow re-election in a Des Moines-based district. Finally, Democratic attempts to retake MN-1, a historically-Democratic district that narrowly flipped in 2018, also failed (Coleman). These trends show that Trump's 2016 gains in once-Democratic parts of the Upper Midwest are finally starting to solidify downballot, even with battle-tested Democratic incumbents or candidates.
Nebraska's 2nd (Can progressive candidates win purple and/or Middle America House seats?):
Image Source: "File:Nebraska US Congressional District 2 (since 2013).tif."
Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nebraska_US_Congressional_District_2_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
Maybe, but macro-level factors were probably more influential in this race.
Like multiple other races in similar districts profiled here, Biden's improvements at the top did not lead to significant downballot coattails in less-than-light-blue districts Democrats hoped to flip, as Rep. Don Bacon (R) won another term against progressive Kara Eastman (D) in a rematch. Downballot split-ticketing among Biden voters in the district caused Eastman to run behind the ex-Vice President, many of whom held Republican-leaning beliefs but disliked Trump (Cordes and Morton). So, can progressives win purple and/or Middle America? Maybe, but this year's trends complicated that potential, especially extensive Republican messaging connecting Democratic House candidates, progressive or not, to the "Trump Squad" members and their policy ideas (Cillizza).
New York's 2nd (Will retirees vote Democratic down ballot as well as up ballot?):
Image Source: "File:New York US Congressional District 2 (since 2013).tif."
Wikimedia Commons, last modified 29 Mar. 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:New_York_US_Congressional_District_2_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
Not as much as pre-election analysis suggested. Note that while this race has not been called by some outlets (such as the Associated Press), Democrat Jackie Gordon conceded to Republican Andrew Garbarino, who has declared victory (D'Iorio). Meanwhile, New York and the Long Island counties of Nassau and Suffolk are still counting a significant number of mail ballots (Rizzo).
Among voters over 65, Trump's national performance amongst that group did not change much from 2016, although Biden improved among those who age is between 45 and 64 years (although Trump still won the latter) (Merrill et al.). In New York specifically, Biden won a majority of voters over 64 ("New York 2020 Exit Polls"), but this number does not take micro-level changes in places such as NY-2 into account. At the presidential-level, Long Island's Suffolk County voted for Trump, and many young Republicans were successful on the Island (Thorne). Like other districts profiled here, split-ticketing also likely benefitted downballot Republicans, including NY-2 winner Andrew Garbarino (R).
Oklahoma's 5th (Was this 2018 Democratic upset victory a black swan or indicative of something larger?):
Image Source: "File:Oklahoma US Congressional District 5 (since 2013).tif."
Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oklahoma_US_Congressional_District_5_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
Short-term, this was probably a fluke. Medium-to-long-term, possibly indicative of larger changes.
Republican Stephanie Bice flipped back OK-5 after Rep. Kendra Horn (D)'s 2018 upset victory in this longtime Republican district. Yet, the district did not go back to voting as heavily Republican as 2016, despite Bice taking back the Republican-leaning district (Murphy). By comparison, in 2016, then-Rep. Steve Russell (R) won by 21% ("House Election Results"), while Trump won by 14% (Murphy). These trends seem to indicate that while OK-5 remains a "reach" district for Democrats, potential remains for it to become competitive again, depending on the national environment and who the Democratic candidate is.
Texas's 22nd (Is George H.W. Bush's former seat an indicator of Texas's political future?):
Image Source: "File:Texas US Congressional District 22 (since 2013).tif."
Wikimedia Commons, last modified 28 Mar. 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Texas_US_Congressional_District_22_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
At the House-level, not yet. At the presidential-level, increasingly, with caveats.
In addition to TX-22, Democratic dreams of expanding their Texas House map faltered on election night, with every target voting Republican. TX-22 elected Republican Troy Nehls (R) by 7% despite a spirited challenge from ex-State Department Official Sri Preston Kulkarni (D), and despite Biden coming very close to winning the district (A. Schneider). Democrats' disappointment over Texas's House results also stretched to Dallas/Fort Worth, where Beth Van Duyne (R) narrowly won over Democrat Candace Valenzeula, who was widely seen to win the increasingly-blue district that voted for Biden (Ahkter et al.). Elsewhere, Democratic attempts to unset Reps. Chip Roy (R, TX-21) and John Carter (R, TX-31) in suburban Austin faltered despite both incumbents nearly losing in 2018 (Bell; "Roundup"). On the other hand, South Texas incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D, TX-15) had a near-losing scare propelled by Trump's unexpected showing amongst South Texas Latino voters (Cai et al.; Carolan and Livingston). But in the cases of suburban Texas seats, the results of TX-22's House race shows that while Democrats still have significant potential to gain in this region, such a future is not here yet, and is further complicated by downballot Biden/House Republican split-ticketing.
Virginia's 7th (Will the suburbs assist Democrats in purple and light-red districts again?):
Highly variable, but in many cases, yes. In this race, definitely.
Looking at the county-level voting breakdown from VA-7, it is clear that voters in Richmond's educated suburbs came out to assist 2018 first-year Abigail Spanberger (D) in achieving a second term, while high Republican margins in rural counties kept the race close. In the district's portions of Chesterfield and Henrico Counties (suburban counties surrounding Richmond), Spanberger won both by at least double-digits, which was enough to overcome more-Republican rural areas ("Virginia House Election").
Other than Spanberger, several of her first-time colleagues in mixed districts were also likely saved by educated suburban portions of their districts while rural and exurban areas drifted away. In Iowa, Rep. Cindy Axne (D, IA-3) narrowly won a second term by performing well in suburban-dominated Polk County (Des Moines), and nearly-winning the increasingly-suburban Dallas County next door ("Iowa House Election"), while Rep. Angie Craig (D, MN-2) to the north had a similar performance due to her sizable margin in the Twin Cities' suburbs ("Minnesota House Election"). In Pennsylvania, rising star Rep. Conor Lamb (D, PA-17)'s third win was propelled by Pittsburgh's Allegheny County suburbs ("Pennsylvania House"). Out West, Rep. Steven Horsford (D, NV-4) won a 5% re-election victory in a light-blue district due to a sizable performance in suburban Las Vegas while rural counties trended Republican ("Nevada House Election"), while Rep. Kim Schrier (D) narrowly won a second term due to her performance in Seattle's King County suburbs ("Washington House Election"). In all six cases, rural and exurban areas remained solidly Republican, if not trending more Republican compared to their first victories.
Congressional Election Results:
"Georgia Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last updated 24 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/georgia. Accessed 24 Nov. 2020.
"House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control - Election Results 2016." The New York Times, last updated 17 Sept. 2017, www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/house. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
"Illinois House Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last updated 24 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/illinois/house/district-13. Accessed 27 Nov. 2020.
"Illinois House of Representatives election results 2018." CNN, last updated 21 Dec. 2018, www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/illinois. Accessed 27 Nov. 2020.
"Iowa House Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last updated 24 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/iowa/house/. Accessed 24 Nov. 2020.
"Minnesota House Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last updated 24 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/minnesota/house/. Accessed 24 Nov. 2020.
"Nevada House Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last updated 24 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/nevada/house/district-4. Accessed 24 Nov. 2020.
"North Carolina Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last updated 24 Nov. 2020, edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/north-carolina. Accessed 29 Nov. 2020.
"Pennsylvania House Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last updated 24 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/pennsylvania/house/district-1. Accessed 24 Nov. 2020.
"Virginia House Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last updated 24 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/virginia/house/. Accessed 24 Nov. 2020.
"Washington House Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last updated 24 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/washington/house/district-1. Accessed 28 Nov. 2020.
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