Comparing the CARES Act with the HEROES and HEALS Acts

Author's Notes: The information presented below regarding the HEALS and HEROES Acts are accurate as of publication time (8pm PST on 8/5/2020). I do not plan to update this post once the House and Senate agree on and pass a compromise bill, but might discuss in-depth whichever final bill becomes law. 

     8/9/2020 UPDATE: Per a significant announcement presented today, I corrected a significant mistake with the information originally presented below. On the original version, I stated that the Economic Impact Payments (or "stimulus checks") were monthly payments, whereas in reality, they are one-time payments. If you are reading this, the information presented below is corrected from the original version. As stated on the linked announcement, I take full responsibility for, and apologize for the mistake I made here. 

What to Watch for in the 8/4, 8/6, and 8/11 Congressional Primaries

What to Watch for in the 8/4, 8/6, and 8/11 Congressional Primaries

Introduction: After a relatively slow July, the Congressional primary season resumes this coming Tuesday (8/4), with Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington hosting their primaries, and Tennessee hosting on Thursday (8/6) ("2020 State"). Next week (8/11), Connecticut, Georgia, Minnesota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wisconsin will host their Congressional primaries (Connecticut will also host its presidential primary, the last one) ("2020 State"). The specific primary races profiled below have significant implications for the remainder of the primary season, and for the respective corresponding general elections. 

Significant 8/4 Primary Races to Watch: 

• Kansas Senate Republican Primary: Early last year, Senator Pat Roberts (R) announced his retirement after serving in Congress for almost 40 years (Lowry et al.). With his expected departure, a competitive Republican primary emerged to replace him. The Republican establishment is anxious that controversial ex-Secretary of State Kris Kobach (noted for heading President Trump's disbanded voter fraud commission), who lost the 2018 gubernatorial election to a Democrat, could win the primary and ruin their chances of holding the seat (Arkin). If this were to happen, it would break a Republican Senate streak in Kansas stretching back to the Great Depression (Arkin). The Republican establishment has preferred incumbent KS-1 representative Roger Marshall, while businessman Bob Hamilton's modest performance has further complicated the race (Arkin). Recent polls have shown Kobach slightly ahead, but with room for Marshall to have a last-minute winning surge (Arkin). Whoever emerges from the Republican primary will likely face ex-Republican state legislator Barbara Bollier, who recently became a Democrat, and seems poised to clinch the Democratic Senate nomination (Arkin). 
• KS-2 Republican Primary: After my initial primary outlook post, in which I noted that KS-2 incumbent Steve Watkins (R) already faced significant headwinds stemming from his 2018 campaign, news broke that Watkins had been arrested and was facing voter fraud charges. His main opponent is ex-Secretary of Treasury Jake LaTurner, who has stepped up his campaign, and condemned the incumbent for the accused crimes (Brunner). If Watkins loses on Tuesday night, he will become the fourth incumbent Republican representative to lose renomination, behind Representatives Steve King (R, IA-4), Denver Riggleman (R, VA-5), and Scott Tipton (R, CO-3). Furthermore, if Watkins loses renomination, it will mean that two freshman Republicans (Riggleman and Watkins) failed to win re-nomination in a non-redistricting year, something that might be interesting to study in a future post. 
• MI-13 Democratic Primary: MI-13 is held by Representative Rashida Tlaib, a member controversial among Republicans and some Democrats, but equally loved by progressives. Along with Rep. Ilhan Omar (D, MN-5), whose primary is next week (and discussed below), they are the first and only female Muslim House members. Tlaib is facing a primary rematch against Detroit City Councilmember Brenda Jones, who originally won the special election to fill the remainder of ex-Rep. John Conyers 114th Congressional term (he resigned due to being implicated in the #MeToo movement) (Lessenberry). Jones has recently become bogged down by accusations of campaign finance violations (Cunningham-Cook), while recent polling has shown Rep. Tlaib with positive approval ratings and name recognition (Sarpolus). Tlaib's performance could likely foreshadow Omar's primary next week (discussed further below), as the latter has recently faced their challenger surging as the primary election closes in (Cohen). 
• MO-1 Democratic Primary: As noted in three previous blog posts, St. Louis-based Representative Lacy Clay (D, MO-1) is significantly at-risk of losing his primary. In 2018, nurse and activist Cori Bush gave Clay a competitive renomination, and is running again, this time with higher name recognition and progressive support (Otterbein and Thompson). As noted in my last post about the "June 2020 Effect," Bush has extensively participated in Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests, both recently and when the original protests began in Ferguson (located in the district) six years ago (Marans). If Bush wins, Clay will be the third incumbent Democrat this cycle to not win renomination, with Illinois's Dan Lipinski (D, IL-3) and New York's Eliot Engel (D, NY-16) being the first two. This does not count Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D, NY-12), who is narrowly winning her primary, but has not been projected either way after nearly two months because of New York's difficulties in counting mail ballots (Campanile). 

Significant 8/6 Primary Races to Watch: 

• Tennessee Senate Republican Primary: In the Volunteer State, Senator Lamar Alexander (R) is retiring this cycle, with the primary to replace him being unexpectedly competitive. Initially, ex-ambassador Bill Hagerty was seen as the favorite to win the Republican nomination to replace Alexander (Raju and Rogers). In recent weeks, however, doctor Manny Sethi (R)'s campaign has seen a significant surge against the establishment Hagerty, being backed by Tea Party surrogates and institutions (Raju and Rogers). The two have been extensively attacking each other in recent weeks, showcasing the primary's increased attention (Raju and Rogers). Recent polling has shown Hagerty with a small edge, Sethi within the margin of error, and a sizable number of undecided primary voters ("Tennessee", 3). 

Significant 8/11 Primary Races to Watch: 

• GA-14 Republican Primary Runoff: Taking place in Northwest Georgia, this primary runoff is one that normally would not have gained significant attention. The heavily-Republican seat opened up when incumbent Rep. Tom Graves (R) decided not to run for another term in 2020 (Mutnick and Zanona). In the June first-round primary, businesswoman Majorie Greene, who has openly expressed support for QAnon, and neurologist John Cowan advanced to the runoff, with Greene significantly leading with a plurality of the vote (Mutnick and Zanona). Since then, establishment Republicans became concerned after several videos were uncovered by Politico showing Greene expressing support for conspiracy theories and making racist remarks (Mutnick and Zanona). As such, many prominent Republicans have thrown significant support to Cowan prior to the runoff, hoping to prevent Greene from being nominated (Mutnick and Zanona). Polling has shown the runoff to be close (@Ally Mutnick). Greene's rise in the primary has been noted to be part of a larger trend of more extreme Republicans seeking higher office and performing better than before, including those supporting QAnon-related conspiracy theories (Stevens). 
• MN-5 Democratic Primary: As noted above, along with Rep. Tlaib (profiled above), Rep. Ilhan Omar (D, MN-5) made history in 2018 as one of the first two female Muslim representatives elected to the House. Like Tlaib, her first term in the House has been controversial due to her views on Middle Eastern foreign policy and Israel (Cohen). Until recently, her main primary challenger, Antone Melton-Meaux (D), was seen as a longshot, but has surged as the primary has drawn closer (Cohen). Especially, Melton-Meaux has shaped his campaign on the claim that Rep. Omar does not adequately represent the district due to her frequent verbal targeting of President Trump and Israel, and instead argues that he would better represent the district (Cohen). In conjunction, Rep. Omar has significantly upped her progressive credentials and fundraising, receiving an endorsement from Speaker Pelosi, and criticizing Melton-Meaux's past and present support for and from, big money (Cohen). A poll from several weeks ago found Rep. Omar leading 66%-29%, similar to Rep. Tlaib's position discussed above (Chen). As stated earlier, fellow Rep. Tlaib's primary this coming Tuesday could offer a significant hint for Rep. Omar, as the two seem to face similar primary conditions. Generally, both primaries could also offer hints of the progressives' limits in maintaining support among non-progressive Democrats, especially moderates. 

Works Cited:

"2020 State Primary Election Dates." National Council of State Legislatures, 19 May 2020, www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/2020-state-primary-election-dates.aspx#Chronological. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

Arkin, James. "GOP dread over possible Kobach nomination in Kansas." Politico, 2 Aug. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/08/02/kris-kobach-senate-kansas-gop-dread-390089. Accessed 2 Aug. 2020. 

Brunner, Melissa. "DA charges Watkins with voter fraud." WIBW-13, 14 Jul. 2020, www.wibw.com/2020/07/14/da-charges-watkins-with-voter-fraud/?fbclid=IwAR3pS0q7r8MTM-RQsgrzZbX9_V6CmigEZMn-bPXSyNYLb9wtSmg0qbBhp98. Accessed 2 Aug. 2020. 

Campanile, Carl. "NYC Rep. Carolyn Maloney pulling ahead of rival Suraj Patel in mail-ballot vote." New York Post, 23 Jul. 2020, nypost.com/2020/07/23/nyc-rep-carolyn-maloney-ahead-of-suraj-patel-in-mail-ballot-vote/?utm_source=reddit.com&utm_medium=site+buttons&utm_campaign=site+buttons&fbclid=IwAR1-8zyU-b3oCQ5T2A_WGvqjC3zoyCrZrrx2HjNoiYa8olLDgiiHbOspAYQ. Accessed 2 Aug. 2020. 

Chen, Alex. "Minnesota CD 5 | July 2020." Change Research, 16 Jul. 2020, https://05702341-a922-4d99-9222-04dcd23c85ce.filesusr.com/ugd/5a3786_7580786c09e547dba019a9412f14c937.pdf. Accessed 2 Aug. 2020. 

Cohen, Max. "‘We don’t need someone distracted with Twitter’: Ilhan Omar fights off tough primary challenge." Politico, 1 Aug. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/08/01/ilhan-omar-primary-challenge-381206. Accessed 2 Aug. 2020. 

Cunningham-Cook, Matthew. "Tlaib Challenger Took Illegal Campaign Cash From Donors Doing Business With The City Of Detroit." The Intercept, 21 Apr. 2020, theintercept.com/2020/04/21/brenda-jones-detroit-city-council-tlaib/. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

Lessenberry, Jack. "Lessenberry: Odds look favorable for Rashida Tlaib." The Toledo Blade, 12 May, 2020, www.toledoblade.com/opinion/columnists/2020/05/12/lessenberry-odds-look-favorable-for-rashida-tlaib/stories/20200512014. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

Lowry, Brian, Jonathan Shorman, and Lindsay Wise. "Kansas Republican Pat Roberts announces retirement, sets up open seat race for Senate." McClatchy DC, 4 Jan. 2019, www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article223905880.html. Accessed 2 Aug. 2020. 

Marans, Daniel. "Cori Bush, Progressive Missouri Challenger, Raises $170,000 In June." The Huffington Post, 6 Jul. 2020, www.huffpost.com/entry/cori-bush-missouri-democratic-primary-fundraising_n_5f035ef2c5b612083c5fe2a1. Accessed 20 Jul. 2020. 

Mutnick, Ally, and Melanie Zanona. "House Republican leaders condemn GOP candidate who made racist videos." Politico, 17 Jun. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/06/17/house-republicans-condemn-gop-candidate-racist-videos-325579. Accessed 2 Aug. 2020. 

Otterbein, Holly, and Alex Thompson. "The 'new' AOC divides the left." Politico, 30 Mar. 2020, www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/29/the-new-aoc-divides-the-left-1269548. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

Raju, Manu, and Alex Rogers. "US Senate primary in Tennessee pits Trump's candidate against conservative insurgency." CNN, 27 Jul. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/07/24/politics/tennessee-senate-republican-primary-donald-trump/index.html. Accessed 2 Aug. 2020. 

Sarpolus, Ed. "MI-13: Target Insyght (July 2020)." Target Insyght, Jul. 20, 2020, drive.google.com/file/d/1DnM5Es2ZZDFVPphRJEkbuh7eFrs5Qyj2/view. Accessed 2 Aug. 2020. 

Taylor, Steven. "QAnon and Congress." Outside the Beltway, 13 Jun. 2020, www.outsidethebeltway.com/qanon-and-congress/. Accessed 2 Aug. 2020. 

"Tennessee U.S. Senate Republican Statewide Poll Results." JMC Analytics and Polling, Jul. 2020, winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Tennessee-Senate-GOP-Executive-Summary.pdf. Accessed 2 Aug. 2020. 

@Ally Mutnick. "New: An internal #GA14 poll from John Cowan's campaign shows him leading Marjorie Greene 43-40% ahead of the Aug. 11 GOP primary runoff. IVR Survey was conducted June 19-21 by Battleground Connect. 771 LVs and MoE of +/-3.5%." Twitter, 22 Jun. 2020, 10:20am, twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1275116528153890819.