The 2020 Federal Elections: What Happened?
President:
Image Source: Kingofthedead."File:ElectoralCollege2020 with results.svg." Wikimedia Commons, last modified 7 Nov. 2020, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ElectoralCollege2020_with_results.svg. Accessed 9 Nov. 2020.
As of the time of this post's publication (8pm PST on 11/8/2020), Joe Biden (D) currently sits at 279 projected electoral votes, and Donald Trump (R) at 214. Biden flipped back the "Rust Belt Three" (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) that gave Donald Trump his narrow 2016 victory, flipped Nebraska's 2nd district (Nebraska and Maine allocate two votes to the statewide winner and one vote per each House district's presidential winner), and held on to all of Hillary Clinton's states. Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are currently unprojected, with Biden leading in the middle two, and Trump leading the outer two. Georgia currently awaits the results of a mandatory recount, although the former Vice President currently holds an 11,000 vote winning margin there (Czachor). Biden is also narrowly leading in Arizona, but as the state is still counting votes, Trump might still have a narrow path there ("Biden leads"). Trump is currently leading North Carolina by a narrow margin, with some ballots left to count ("Election Results 2020: Why"). In addition to the electoral college, Biden has a majority of the popular vote, with a winning margin of around 3% and over 4 million raw votes ("Presidential").
President Trump has not conceded the election, although reports indicate that there is growing pressure from prominent Republicans and close acquaintances to do so (Bennett et al.; Desiderio). At the same time, he and his legal team have launched lawsuits in multiple close states (Abrams and Abramson), and have continued to spread varying allegations of voter and electoral fraud that have been extensively debunked (McEvoy).
Senate: After polls closed on Election Day, it appeared that Democratic hopes to take back the Senate were lost, as Republicans Susan Collins (R-ME) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) beat back strong Democratic challenges, and Thom Tillis (R-NC) has likely done so as well (his race is currently unprojected, but he is leading Cal Cunningham by over 2%). Meanwhile, Democratic candidates Barbara Bollier, Steve Daines, and Jaime Harrison failed to win Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina by double digits, despite polling showing close races in all three. Democratic Senator Gary Peters (D) narrowly won against Republican rising star John James, the latter of whom has not yet conceded (Censky). Finally, Alaska's Senate race is unprojected due to a large number of mail ballots that will not be counted until at least November 10th (Kilgore). Assuming Senators Tillis and Dan Sullivan (R-AK) win in the end, the new Senate will have at least 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats (including the two independents caucusing with them).
Not all the Senate results were bad for Democrats, as ex-Governor John Hickenlooper (D) predictably defeated Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in the increasingly-blue Colorado, and John McCain (R)'s former seat turned blue with Mark Kelly (D), an ex-astronaut and husband of ex-Representative Gabby Giffords (D). It was recently announced that in addition to Georgia's Special Election, the regular Senate election between incumbent David Purdue (R) and challenger Jon Ossoff (D) will go to a January runoff (Barrow). While national Democrats are hoping for a late-hour double upset that would give them 50-50 control of the Senate (with VP-elect Kamala Harris breaking ties), there are good arguments on both sides for what could happen (Rogers et al.). I plan to dedicate a whole post to discussing Georgia's double Senate runoffs sometime soon, especially focusing on the competing arguments for what could happen.
House: The House election results appear to be even more disappointing for Democrats than the Senate and Presidential results. While Democrats have been projected to keep a majority, at least seven incumbents lost re-election, six of them first-time members. In South Florida, Reps. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26) and Donna Shalala (FL-27) both lost because of a massive electoral shift among the Cuban-American vote in Miami. Meanwhile, Reps. Kendra Horn (OK-5)'s, Xochitl Torres Small's (NM-2), and Joe Cunningham's (SC-1) luck all ran out after the three won upsets in longtime Republican districts two years ago. In the Midwest, Rep. Abby Finkenauer (IA-1) went down in a mixed rural/small city district as both Trump and Senator Joni Ernst (R) rolled to solid victories in the Buckeye State. Longtime conservative Democratic Representative Collin Peterson (MN-7) lost in a district historically known for ticket-splitting. New York contains multiple close races with ongoing ballot counting, including freshman Anthony Brindisi, who won a close race in 2018 in a heavily Trump district and is trailing the Republican he defeated then. Out West, Orange County freshmen Representatives Harley Rouda (D) and Gil Cisneros (D) are trailing behind Republican opponents (Cisneros is running in a rematch) after both contributed to Democrats winning all of Orange County's House seats 2 years ago, while Utah Rep. Ben McAdams (UT-4) is narrowly leading in suburban Salt Lake City. In the open IA-2, Democrat Rita Hart is only leading by 161 votes against a Republican opponent, while fellow Iowa Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne narrowly won a second term in a district anchored by Des Moines. Finally, another group of other incumbent Democrats (most in at least moderately-blue districts) who had previously won solid re-elections also faced surprisingly close victories, including DCCC Chair and Rep. Cheri Bustos (IL-17), Kathleen Rice (NY-4), Joseph Morelle (NY-25), Vicente Gonzalez (TX-15), Ron Kind (WI-3), and Tim Ryan (OH-13) ("House Election").
Aside from North Carolina's 2nd and 6th (both are now solid-blue districts resulting from redistricting), the only Republican House seat Democrats have picked up is suburban Atlanta's GA-7, the closest House race in 2018 (Coyne). Despite their efforts to gain more seats, Democratic candidates fell short in a plethora of high-profile urban and suburban targets (most of which were close in 2018), including AZ-6, IN-5, MI-3, MO-2, NC-8, NJ-2, NY-2, PA-10, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, and VA-5. Probably the worst sting is the victory of Republican Tony Gonzales in TX-23 (home of retiring moderate Republican Will Hurd), a seat almost universally-predicted to flip (Cai et al.). At this moment, the only Republican-held district that still has a chance of flipping is suburban CA-25, held by Mike Garcia (R), who captured the seat earlier this year in a special election to replace 2018 freshman Representative Katie Hill (D), who resigned last year after the unveiling of a major scandal. As of publication time, Garcia is slightly ahead of Democrat Christy Smith, whom he defeated back in June for the seat ("House Election").
Considering the above information, the Democrats will end up losing net House seats, although the exact amount depends on how the remaining races fare after all ballots are counted. As of this article's publication, they are projected to hold 213 seats, while Republicans will have at least 199, with another 23 races unprojected ("House Election").
Electoral Trends (General)
- The Trump era educated suburban shift continued: One of the biggest electoral trends of the Trump era has been the decline of traditionally-Republican educated suburbs, especially in the Sun Belt and Midwest, as many of these voters are turned off by Trump. In 2016, well-educated suburbs around the country swung heavily towards Hillary Clinton (Silver), a trend that continued into the 2018 midterms (Rossman). This year proved that the Democrats' potential ceiling in said places has still not been reached, as Joe Biden continued to improved over Clinton in educated suburbs surrounding Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Richmond, Hampton Roads, Washington D.C., Kansas City, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and elsewhere.
- The "Shy Trumpers" showed their power, but didn't bring home the election for Trump: After the 2016 election, speculation as to the cause of Trump's victory was heavily focused on the "Shy Trumper" theory, in which many Trump voters lied or misled pollsters to avoid being stigmatized (e.g. social desirability). Prior to Election Day 2020, there was some caution expressed in the media that the "Shy Trump" vote could happen again, and that polling was not capturing this group when showing Joe Biden with a massive lead (Stanton). This year, while Democratic and -leaning voters turned out heavily for Biden, Trump voters also turned out heavily, which may have been critical in close Senate and House races, and kept Biden's margin down in the closest battleground states.
- The Democrats witnessed a significant decline among Latinos. In some places: Already, one of the biggest stories regarding this year's election is a sizable decline of Democratic support by Latino and Hispanic voters (Jennings). In particular, two regions have been noted to stand out as evidence of this trend: The Rio Grande Valley (RGV) in Texas, and South Florida (Parker; Sesin). South Florida's decline is largely attributed to Cuban-Americans and other similar groups heavily increasing their support for Trump, something that was discussed beforehand (Sesin). The extent of Biden's decline in the RGV is significant, as Trump appears to have won, or came very close in several majority-Latino counties that haven't voted for a Republican in a while, and improved significantly in others (Parker). Current speculation has focused on the argument that Biden's environmental proposals, which would eliminate many oil-based jobs in the region, and that many voters in the region are upset with the continued Democratic obsession over social issues, and that proposed tax hikes would also strain the region. In addition, while many Latino voters in the region opposed Trump's border wall, they also felt that national Democratic views on immigration enforcement and police did not align with local views (Villarreal). On the other hand, it has also been noted that while this trend is apparent in South Florida and Texas, Biden's decline among Latino voters does not seem to be as extreme in the Southwest or West, such as Nevada (Cai et al.). As stated before, it is important to keep in mind that several of these states in the region are still counting votes.
- Some historical blue-collar working-class Trump Democrats came back, but others didn't: Aside from the "Shy Trumpers," one of the big post-2016 talking points was the massive Democratic decline in rural and blue-collar America, especially among historically-Democratic blue collar voters attracted to Trump's economic populism (Cooper). Like with the "Democratic Latino slide," this year's preliminary results seem more mixed. For example, Biden improved significantly throughout New England and Eastern Pennsylvania (including his hometown of Scranton), although he didn't match Obama's numbers in blue-collar counties. Yet, Trump improved over his 2016 margin in parts of the Midwest and Rust Belt, especially winning Mahoning County, Ohio (home of Youngstown), a historical industrial blue-collar county that last voted Republican in 1972, and Lorain (a similar county outside Cleveland) for the first time since 1984. A future post will go over these and other counties that flipped and ended longtime voting streaks.
Election Results being referenced:
"2016 Presidential Election Results." New York Times, last accessed 9 Aug. 2017, www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
"House Election Results 2020." CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/house. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
"Presidential Election Results and Map 2020." CNN, last updated 8 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=politics_election_national_map. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
"Senate Election Results 2020." CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/senate. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Works Cited:
Abrams, Alana, and Abigail Abramson. "Here Are All the Lawsuits the Trump Campaign Has Filed Since Election Day—And Why Most Are Unlikely to Go Anywhere." Time Magazine, 8 Nov. 2020, time.com/5908505/trump-lawsuits-biden-wins/. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Barrow, Bill. "Twin Senate Runoffs in Georgia could shape Biden presidency." Associated Press, 6 Nov. 2020, apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-senate-elections-georgia-5fbe1eb389b8ff80ba7b7ee25d8d0d8b. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Bennett, Kate, et al. "Jared Kushner, Melania Trump advise Trump to accept election loss." CNN, 8 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/11/08/politics/jared-kushner-donald-trump-concession/index.html. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
"Biden leads Trump by 20,102 votes in Arizona Sunday afternoon." 12 News, last updated 8 Nov. 2020, www.12news.com/article/news/politics/elections/maricopa-county-drops-latest-ballot-counts-in-2020-election-arizona/75-dcd079d6-905b-4886-8eb8-f9aab5b51ff5. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Cai, Mandi, et al. "Joe Biden’s struggles along the Texas border raise questions about Democrats’ outreach there." Texas Tribune, 4 Nov. 2020, www.texastribune.org/2020/11/04/joe-biden-texas-border-democrats/. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Censky, Abigail. "GOP Senate Candidate John James Refuses To Concede, Claims Irregularities In Votes." National Public Radio, 7 Nov. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/11/07/932422850/gop-senate-candidate-john-james-refuses-to-concede-claims-irregularities-in-vote. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Cooper, Matthew. "How Donald Trump Courted White Americans to Victory." Newsweek, 9 Nov. 2016, www.newsweek.com/2016/11/18/donald-trump-white-working-class-voters-election-2016-519095.html. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Coyne, Amanda. "Bourdeaux wins 7th Congressional District race, flipping suburban seat." Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 6 Nov. 2020, www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/bourdeaux-wins-7th-congressional-district-race-flipping-suburban-seat/JRMDDZXR5JB3RAKXUDXSRALWXQ/. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Czachor, Emily. "Stacey Abrams Says Georgia Recount Will Still Say Joe Biden Won the State." Newsweek, 8 Nov. 2020, www.newsweek.com/stacey-abrams-says-georgia-recount-will-still-say-joe-biden-won-state-1545865. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Desiderio, Andrew. "Trump's refusal to concede amps up pressure on GOP." Politico, www.politico.com/news/2020/11/08/trumps-refusal-to-concede-pressure-gop-435124. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
"Election results 2020: Why a winner hasn't been declared in the presidential race in North Carolina." WTVD-TV 11, 7 Nov. 2020, abc11.com/election-results-2020-nc-called-when-will-be/7733948/. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Jennings, Scott. "Election 2020 exit polls: Political pundits utterly failed to predict Donald Trump's voters." USA Today, 7 Nov. 2020, www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/11/07/election-2020-exit-polls-trump-minorities-race-women-column/6191966002/. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Kilgore, Ed. "Alaska’s Slow Ballot Count Adds to Senate Uncertainty." New York Magazine, 6 Nov. 2020, nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/2020-elections-slow-alaska-count-adds-to-senate-uncertainty.html. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
LeMire, Jonathan, Zeke Miller, and Will Weissert. "Biden defeats Trump for White House, says 'time to heal.'" Associated Press, 7 Nov. 2020, apnews.com/article/joe-biden-wins-white-house-ap-fd58df73aa677acb74fce2a69adb71f9. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Parker, Kolten. "4 big takeaways for Texas, Bexar County after 2020 election." KSAT News, 4 Nov. 2020, www.ksat.com/vote-2020/2020/11/04/4-big-takeaways-for-texas-bexar-county-after-2020-election/. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Rogers, Alex, Manu Raju, and Fredreka Schouten. "GOP to argue Georgia Senate runoffs would be key to check Biden and a Democratic House." CNN, 7 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/11/06/politics/2020-election-georgia-senate-race-runoffs/index.html. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Rossman, Sean. "The suburbs turned on Republicans and Trump. The midterm election results prove it." USA Today, 8 Nov. 2018, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/08/midterms-suburbs-republicans-democrats-trump/1921590002/. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Sesin, Carmen. "Trump cultivated the Latino vote in Florida, and it paid off." NBC News, 3 Nov. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/trump-cultivated-latino-vote-florida-it-paid-n1246226. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Silver, Nate. "Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump." FiveThirtyEight, 22 Nov. 2020, fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Stanton, Zach. "‘People Are Going To Be Shocked’: Return of the ‘Shy’ Trump Voter?." Politico, 29 Oct. 2020, www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619. Accessed 8 Nov. 2020.
Sullivan, Robert David. "How the red and blue map evolved over the past century." America: The Jesuit Review, 29 Jun. 2016, www.americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/how-red-and-blue-map-evolved-over-past-century. Accessed 7 Nov. 2020.
Villarreal, Alexandria. "Why Democrats lost Latino voters along Texas border: 'They relied on loyalty'." The Guardian, 7 Nov. 2020, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/07/how-democrats-latino-voters-texas-border-towns. Accessed 7 Nov. 2020.
No comments:
Post a Comment