A post-2008 Electoral Tale of Two Wisconsins: "Danewaukee" vs. "Rest of Wisconsin"
Introduction: I like to summarize Wisconsin's post-2008 electoral politics as "Madison and Milwaukee vs. everywhere else," a description I know is simultaneously very simplistic and truthful to an extent. In 2008, Barack Obama won a 13% victory in the Badger State, and as we will see below, performed well in both Dane and Milwaukee counties ("Danewaukee") and the rest of Wisconsin ("RoW"). Not within two years, Wisconsin swung back hard, with the Governor's mansion, two House seats and Senator Russ Feingold's seat turning red ("Wisconsin"). Since then, as we will see below, the two regions have electorally diverged, with every winning Republican doing so off of "RoW" and every Democrat off of "Danewaukee." Considering Wisconsin's recent electoral politics, I find this personal theory to be worthy of quantitative exploration to determine the extent to which it is true.
Table 1: Significant 2008-2020 Wisconsin Election Results
Note: The 2012 Gubernatorial election was an off-cycle recall election in June 2012. During this time period explored above, "Danewaukee" generally casted around 25% of the statewide vote while "Rest of Wisconsin" casted around 75%, give or take a percent or two.
Data Source: "More Wisconsin."
Significant 2008-2020 Elections:
- 2010 Gubernatorial: Going into the 2010 Gubernatorial Election, incumbent Jim Doyle (D) decided not to run for another term due to his declining popularity ("Republican Walker"). Ex-U.S. Representative and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) received the Democratic nomination, while the Republican nominee was State Legislator Scott Walker (R) (Hiskes). Walker won his first term by over 5%, concurrent with the Republican Senate victory (below) (Rocha). One of the most significant issues in this election was Governor Doyle's aspirations to extend the Chicago-Milwaukee Hiawatha Service Amtrak service to Madison, which included the purchase of two new trainsets specifically for the extension. Walker was heavily opposed to the extension, (among other things) arguing it would be fiscally unsustainable and that it would benefit only Madison and Milwaukee at the expense of the rest of the state (Bowman and Johnson). Gov. Doyle ended up halting the project and returning Federal funding right after Walker's victory (Sandler). The reason I wanted to mention this specific campaign issue is because Governor Walker's tactic of promising that "RoW" would take back power from "Danewaukee" would be echoed by Trump 6 years later, who rode on non-urban resentment as part of his shocking win of Wisconsin (Johnson, "Kevin"). Furthermore, it is notable that post-2008, no major Democratic nominee has won "RoW," reflecting the region's massive shift from Barack Obama's showing in 2008, and the increasingly-sharp electoral differences between the two regions explored here that started with the 2010 elections.
- 2010 Senate: Just two years after Barack Obama (D) had won Wisconsin by almost 15% as part of his historic victory, Wisconsin was about to swing all the way around in a dramatic fashion. Progressive Senator Russ Feingold (D) ran for a third term, and faced a difficult race against businessman Ron Johnson (R). His 2010 struggles were considered surprising because Feingold had previously beat back tough challenges, was well-liked, and was in a state that hadn't voted Republican for President in a while (Woodruff). Senator Feingold eventually lost by 4% to Johnson as the Tea Party wave washed over the country and Wisconsin ("Wisconsin").
- 2012 Gubernatorial Recall: Liberal backlash to Governor Walker (R) was quick to emerge after his 2010 election victory. In particular, successful Republican legislation to weaken public labor bargaining galvanized a recall effort against the Governor that made it onto the ballot in June 2012. Despite intense energy behind the pro-recall effort, Governor Walker survived the recall election against Barrett, with RoW backing him heavily (Table 1). Gov. Walker thus became the first Governor in American history to survive a recall election, and only the third to face one at the time (Peralta). In this year, California will have a gubernatorial recall election in September (Blood and Ronayne), while Alaska has an ongoing (as of July 2021) gubernatorial recall movement that could result in a recall election. "RoW" gave a significant margin to Walker, as he won the region by 20%, something that not even Trump pulled off in 2016 or 2020 despite his extensive appeal there.
- 2012 Senate: In 2012, incumbent Senator Herb Kohl (D), who previously co-founded and led the Kohl's department store chain, decided to retire after a multi-decade political career (Gunn). U.S. Representative Tammy Baldwin (D) won the seat against ex-Governor Tommy Thompson (R), thus becoming the first Senator identifying as homosexual (Goldenberg). Simultaneously, Wisconsin's blue hue further returned as Barack Obama (D) won the state by over 6% (Table 1).
- 2014 Gubernatorial: Having survived the recall election, Governor Walker ran for a full second term in 2014. His challenger was Mary Burke (D), a former businesswoman for the Trek bicycle company and a State Commerce Secretary under ex-Governor Doyle (D) (o'Brien). Governor Walker easily netted a second term, making it the third election in four years he had won. Burke's attempt to defeat the incumbent Governor was complicated by low turnout among Democratic base groups, Walker's good performance among independent voters, and a dismal Democratic performance in Dane and Milwaukee Counties (Rocha).
- 2016 Senate: Going into the 2016 Senate elections, Senate Republicans were thought to be in a tough situation, with them holding 7 seats in states won by President Barack Obama (D) as part of his 2012 re-election, several in (at the time) fairly blue states. Among these was Senator Ron Johnson (R), who was considered the most vulnerable due to his conservative voting record in a then light-blue (presidential-wise) state (Kondik). Ex-Senator Russ Feingold (D) ran in a rematch to reclaim his former seat, and was considered a favorite for most of the cycle (Meyer). In the closing days, the Senate race saw tightening polls and an influx of outside spending to support the candidates (Meyer; Rahman). On Election Day, Senator Johnson pulled off a shocking upset in parallel with Donald Trump (R)'s unexpected win of the Badger State ("Trump Wins"). Had Feingold won in 2016, he would have been the first Senator to lose to a challenger and make a comeback through unseating the same challenger since the 1930s (Bauer, "Republican").
- 2018 Gubernatorial: With a Blue Wave year hitting the country, state and national Democrats salivated at the possibly of finally being able to unseat Governor Walker after two unsuccessful attempts. In the time since the last gubernatorial election, Walker had run for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination before dropping out early in the nomination cycle, despite him being seen as a frontrunner just months before (Kondik et al.). State Education Chief Tony Evers (D) gained the Democratic nomination and ended up winning narrowly against Walker, although he came into office facing a Republican-controlled legislature (Bauer, "Wisconsin Democrats").
- 2018 Senate: Senator Baldwin (D) ran for another term in 2018, and ended up winning by double-digits. Her opponent was State Legislator Leah Vukmir (R), who had won the nomination against businessman Kevin Nicholson (R), an ex-Democrat who previously was previously President of the College Democrats of America (Glauber; Johnson, "Kevin").
Analysis and Implications: As noted in the above section, it stands out that since 2008, no Democratic nominee for U.S. President, U.S. Senate, or Wisconsin Governor has won "RoW," including Senator Baldwin (D), whose 2018 double-digit win was on the back of "Danewaukee" alone. To show the extent of this divergence, even Obama 2012's and Biden's victories in Wisconsin relied alone on a solid margin in "Danewaukee." With the exception of Senator Baldwin's 2018 re-election, every Republican candidate since 2008 has netted double-digit margins from "RoW," thus requiring a significant margin out of "Danewaukee" for a Democrat to win. In particular, the massive jump in RoW's Republican net margin between the 2012 and 2016 Presidential elections stands out, as does the similar % margin in 2020. These results seem to indicate that the Republican Party's Trump-era electoral shift has permanently made the region more red in presidential year elections in addition to midterm elections, thus making the state more competitive than it used to be. This is despite now-President Joe Biden (D) further increasing the "Danewaukee" net vote margin compared to both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama's performances, yet losing and narrowly winning Wisconsin due to the double-digit Republican margins in "RoW."
Beside Trump, the results presented on Table 1 also reflect on a key reason behind the failure of Democratic candidates to win against Governor Walker (R) until 2018, which is the relatively lower turnout in Wisconsin's gubernatorial elections, which are held in midterm years. The lower-than-presidential margins in "Danewaukee" reflect this during each of Walker's campaigns. Furthermore, Walker's obvious strength in "RoW" complicated such efforts, as was his relatively good performance in "Danewaukee" for a Republican. Even in the 2012 recall election, when turnout was relatively high, Walker survived due to his massive raw vote margin in "RoW," while the Democratic net margin increase in "Danewaukee" was nowhere close to even match the former's pro-Republican shift, thus showing Walker's intense support from that region.
While I am not into the business of creating complex quantitative models to predict what percentages a candidate would need to win a race, some clues stand out in the table above. In particular, it seems as though any Republican hoping to win the state needs to net at least a 14% winning margin in "RoW," with the threshold being lower in low-turnout midterms (such as 2010 or 2014). This can also be achieved with a better-than-normal performance in "Danewaukee," especially among independent voters (something Scott Walker achieved in his three successful elections). Furthermore, with the massive pro-Republican shift in "RoW," a 40%+ winning margin in "Danewaukee" is paramount for a Democrat to narrowly win, as is reducing the Republican margin in "RoW" as much as possible. Remember back to the note under Table 1 that "Danewaukee" and "RoW" accounted for around 25% and 75% of the statewide vote in the time period studied, which further emphasizes the importance of "RoW" for an aspiring statewide candidate of either party.
Conclusion: Even though this blog's analysis of Wisconsin's election results started with 2008, it is noteworthy that Dane and Milwaukee have been voting Democratic in Presidential elections starting in 1960, longer than other urban Midwestern counties such as Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Marion (Indianapolis), Hennepin (Minneapolis), and even Chicago's Cook (Sullivan). Thus, it could be argued that while the electoral differences between the two regions predate the rise of Scott Walker (R), his campaign rhetoric and policies heavily exasperated the divide between the two regions, which is further strengthened by Trump's appeal in "RoW."
Based on the election results analyzed above plus the above paragraph, another way to summarize post-2008 Wisconsin politics is "the winner's electoral performance in the RoW matters significantly," especially since "Danewaukee" has continuously cast only 25% of the statewide vote despite becoming more Democratic, while "RoW" has trended red since 2008, only snapping back in 2012 and somewhat in 2018. This will likely continue to hold true for the foreseeable future, thus keeping Wisconsin in the group of core swing states. With Senate and Gubernatorial elections taking place in Wisconsin next year, the statewide winners of both are likely to do so off the back of either, but not both regions.
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