Blog Hiatus Announcement and Thank-you

Blog Hiatus Announcement and Thank-you

I regret to write this, but starting today, I will be putting this blog and my Twitter profile on hiatus as I would like to take a break from both for an indefinite period. I won't go into specific details about why, but in case anyone was wondering, I assure you all that I am physically and mentally fine, and simply feel like taking a break from my blog and Twitter while leaving room to return when I feel ready to. In addition to this announcement, I want to take the time to thank you all for supporting my blog, as it is something I put a significant amount of effort and pride into maintaining for the last 15 months. Note that while I will be inactive, this blog will still be up and you all will be able to read all published content. 

Once again, thank you all for supporting me and this blog! Soon after this publishes, I'll update the introduction post with this information so that there is no confusion. In the meantime, feel free to read over content that has already been published here!

Congressional Incumbents in Opposite Double-Digit Presidential Party-won Seats from 2008-2020

Author's Note: I know, the title of this post is overly long and complicated, but I couldn't think of anything better.

The 2021 California Gubernatorial Recall Wrap-Up

The 2021 California Gubernatorial Recall Wrap-Up

Introduction: Only two days remain until polls close on the historic California Gubernatorial Recall election of 2021, and it has been a roller coaster since the recall movement began to pick up steam. Last month, polling narrowed to the point where state and national Democrats showed concern that Governor Newsom faced a serious chance of being recalled and replaced by conservative talk show host Larry Elder. However, conditions changed rapidly once again as the eleventh hour neared, which is possibly the result of increased Democratic enthusiasm to protect the incumbent Governor (Willon). As the clock almost closes on this once-in-a-while election, this post will briefly discuss the current situation and trends to watch for as ballots are counted.

Polling: Since Question 1 polling margins significantly narrowed last month, newer polls show an increasing margin against recalling Governor Newsom (Willon). As of publication time, the FiveThirtyEight average has "No" at 56.2%, and "Yes" at 41.6% ("Latest Polls"), while the RealClearPolitics average is similar at 56.4% and 41.4%, respectively ("2021 California"). Polling on Question 2 generally continues to show talk show host Larry Elder (R) leading the horse race of candidates, followed by vlogger Kevin Praffath (D) and ex-San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R) ("Latest Polls").

Campaign Activity: With the aforementioned tightening of Question 1 polls and Democratic concern that Governor Newsom was at significant risk of being recalled, the national party and its surrogates jumped into the race to assist Newsom. Most notably, Vice-President and ex-California Attorney General and Senator Kamala Harris (D) urged Democratic base voters to vote so as to preserve California's existing social and voting policies (Reston). Progressive Senators and ex-Presidential candidates Bernie Sanders (D) and Elizabeth Warren (D) have also put out statements supporting the governor (Greenwood; Reston). On the eve of the recall, President Biden (D) himself will host a rally to support Governor Newsom in Long Beach, highlighting key issues facing California that could be impacted by a successful recall (Ronayne, "Biden").

On the pro-recall side, Larry Elder (R) has been notably active, having hosted several major rallies throughout the state in the last week (Franco; Telles and Wynter). Furthermore, Elder recently reacted to Harris's and Biden's support for Newsom by claiming it was meant to distract from significant issues facing California and the ongoing situation in Afghanistan (Ronayne, "Biden"). Meanwhile, another replacement candidate, John Cox, has recently been in a dispute with the state party over their endorsement process, accusing them of corruption and favoritism (Christopher). Despite his lagging poll numbers (discussed below), Kevin Faulconer (R) has been refocusing his message on voters undecided on Question 2, hoping to reach out to moderates and centrists through pitching his past record of being a moderate problem-solver (Gregorczyk). Finally, the only "high-profile" Democrat running on Question 2, Kevin Paffrath, has been hoping for increased name recognition as his path to Sacramento, while also attending Democratic rallies to support Governor Newsom, and warning voters of the consequences should a Republican candidate become governor. Simultaneously, he has criticized the national party for its "Don't vote on Question 2" message to its voters, arguing it could increase the chances of a successful recall and a Republican governor (Ronayne, "YouTuber").

Fundraising: As of the most recent numbers from a page hosted by the Los Angeles Times, over $120 million has been raised over the course of the recall campaign, with $44 million from sources supporting the recall and $82 million from sources opposing it. Out of that $82 million, most ($71 million) comes from several anti-recall committees, while the remainder has been raised by Newsom's campaign and the state Democratic Party (Menezes and Moore). 

Among candidates hoping to replace Newsom if the recall succeeds, Elder and businessman John Cox currently lead the pack, while pro-recall committees account for a far smaller proportion than anti-recall ones. Kevin Paffrath (D) has only raised around $450,000, placing him behind the other replacement candidates. Unsurprisingly, most of the anti-recall and pro-Newsom money comes from the bluest portions of California, while funds raised for pro-recall and replacement candidates are largely spread out, although a significant portion for Elder, Cox, and Faulconer (R) come from Southern California's coastal counties (Menezes and Moore).

Ballot Counting and Results: As of September 8th, around 32% of the mailed ballots have been returned to county elections offices, with the coastal and Sierra Nevada counties having the highest rates of returned ballots so far (Manthay). 

Because of its all mail balloting, California often takes several weeks to completely count ballots and tabulate the final results (Denkmann), especially because many mail-in ballots trickle into elections offices after poll closing times, although any ballots arriving 17 days after the election cannot be counted ("What to Expect"). As such, it is normal for final results to await a significant time period for these ballots to be counted and tabulated, and some races may flip in results before the final totals are released (Denkmann).

County Results to Watch For: I should probably have provided this section as part of a previous recall post, but I didn't think about it until preparing this one. For context, Hillary Clinton (D) won California 61.5%-31.5% (30%) in 2016, Gov. Newson won 61.9%-38.1% (23.8%) in 2018, and now-President Joe Biden (D) won 63.5%-34.3% (29.2%) in 2020 ("Statement of Vote" 2018, 21-23; "United States Presidential").

     Visual 1: 2004-2020 California Presidential County Voting History

     Source: "2004 Presidential"; "2008 Presidential"; "2012 Presidential"; "2016 Presidential"; "2020 Presidential"

     Visual 2: 2016 President/2018 Gubernatorial/2020 President County Voting

     Source: "2016 Presidential"; "2020 Presidential"; "Statement of Vote"

     Visual 3: 2018 Newsom % vs. Clinton 2016% and Biden 2020%

 

     Notes: The values presented above were calculated by subtracting Newsom's % of the vote per county from Clinton's and Biden's presidential vote share. Presidential results reflect Clinton's and Biden's two-party percent of the vote rather than total vote, while the Gubernatorial results are already two-party only. Negative values indicate that Hillary Clinton (D) or Joe Biden (D) outperformed Gov. Newsom (D) and vice-versa for positive values.

     Source: "2016 Presidential"; "2020 Presidential"; "Statement of Vote"

     22 each of California's counties have voted Democratic or Republican in every presidential election starting in 2004, while the rest have voted for both parties at least once during that time period (Visual 1). Notably, a bloc of 9 counties started voting blue with Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and have remained blue since, while five other counties saw other presidential voting patterns during this time period, with 4 of the 5 voting for Joe Biden (D) in 2020 and the other going for Obama in 2008 while otherwise voting Republican (Trinity). 

     Comparing these results to Table 2, Gavin Newsom's 2018 county map generally fell in line with the 2016 Presidential map, although the Clinton-won counties of Fresno, Riverside, and Stanislaus narrowly voted for Republican candidate John Cox (R). Meanwhile, it is notable that Orange County, a longtime red county prior to 2016, narrowly voted for Gavin Newsom (D) two years after breaking its 80-year Republican presidential voting streak (Fox et al.; "Statement of Vote" 2018, 21-23). Joe Biden (D) won all of these counties plus Butte and Inyo two years later as part of his presidential victory ("2020 Presidential"). 

     One of the main things to watch for as the results are nearly final is the extent to which support for Governor Newsom (D) will regress compared to the 2018 one, especially in R-D-D-D-D (Gold) counties on Visual 1. In 2018, despite winning 6 of the 9, Newsom won each by less than 5% except for San Diego and Ventura ("Statement of Vote" 2018, 21-23). Furthermore, the Romney-Clinton-Biden counties of Nevada and Orange also narrowly voted for Newsom in 2018, and are also obvious counties that could also vote in favor of recalling the Governor. If a successful recall of Newsom does occur, it might be possible that "less blue" D-D-D-D-D counties may be part of the pro-recall map, with the two most likely being Imperial and Lake, whose reasonings are described below. Sen Benito should also be watched as another possible defection from this group under this scenario, as it only voted for Newsom by only 13%, which was a significant underperformance compared to Clinton and Biden.

     Other than the Bush-Obama and Romney-Clinton counties, there are three normally-Democratic counties that could yield insight into key electoral trends. The first is Imperial in the southeast corner, a majority-Latino, rural, and blue-collar-heavy locale that like other similar majority-Latino counties nationwide, swung heavily against Joe Biden in 2020 while still voting for him (Marzorati, "In Imperial"). This is in stark contrast to 2016, where Clinton improved on Obama's showing (Silver). However, Visual 3 reveals that Newsom did more than 10% worse than Clinton in Imperial, while the 2020 Presidential results almost perfectly matched the 2018 gubernatorial results, thus making 2016's results seem like an abnormality. In the former year, President Trump (R) did decisively well among Latino communities nationwide despite losing the group, which was a significant change from his 2016 performance, including in Imperial (Marzorati, "In Imperial"). Using Question 1's "Yes" vote as a Republican proxy (as the recall is overwhelmingly Republican-supported), the result from Imperial could reveal whether 2020's Republican surge among Latino voters continues without Trump on the ballot, although the final turnout rate will have to be factored into such analysis, as Imperial's turnout rate is still the lowest in the state (Marzorati, "Imperial"), while Latino rates of returning recall ballots are lower than other groups (Marzorati, "Newsom"). While determining this will require looking at more micro-level data, Orange County could be a similar bellwether of minority groups that came out heavily for Trump after voting heavily for Clinton have soured on Newsom. Of note here is the county's extensive Vietnamese-American population, a group that supported Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 before swinging heavily to support Trump in 2020, and many of whom are angered by COVID shutdown measures and supportive of Trump's toughness on China (Kopetman et al.). Ultimately, both of these counties could reveal whether the 2020 results that Trump posted among such groups were unique or part of a larger trend. 

     Lake County north of the Bay Area should be watched for whether it votes in favor of recalling Governor Newsom. For context, Lake has voted Democratic in every presidential election starting in 1988, and gave Obama over almost 60% both times. However, in 2016, the county swung heavily to the point of coming within 5% of Trump's reach, and only moved slightly more Democratic in 2020 ("United States Presidential"). In 2018, Gov. Newsom actually performed worse than Hillary Clinton had in Lake County, only winning it by 4% ("Statement of Vote," 21). The reason for its swing possibly stems from the county's combination of being majority-White, having a low rate of college attainment, and a working-class-level of average income ("Overview of"), all factors that are increasingly correlated with Republican strength (Silver). While the recall ballot's is nonpartisan, this year could be the first time in a while that Lake does not support a statewide Democratic candidate running for Governor, U.S. Senator, or President. The 2018 Gubernatorial result and Newsom's overall decline in popularity since further supports this possibility. With this in mind, Lake could reveal whether the decline of Democratic support in rural White working class locales continues without Trump on the ballot.

     Finally, San Francisco, Alameda, and the North Coast counties (e.g. Mendocino, Humboldt) should be watched for Democratic base turnout, while the less urban San Joaquin Valley and interior North counties will reveal Republican base turnout. 

Data Sources:

"2004 Presidential General Election Results." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 11 Sept. 2021.

"2008 Presidential General Election Results." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 11 Sept. 2021.

"2012 Presidential General Election Results." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 11 Sept. 2021.

"2016 Presidential General Election Results." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 11 Sept. 2021.

"2020 Presidential General Election Results." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 11 Sept. 2021.

"Statement of Vote: November 6, 2018 General Election." California Secretary of State Alex Padilla, 14 Dec. 2018, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2018-general/sov/2018-complete-sov.pdf, 21-23. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Works Cited: 

"2021 California Governor Recall Election." RealClearPolitics, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/ca/2021-california-governor-recall-election-7360.html. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Christopher, Ben. "How did John Cox go from GOP standard-bearer to bears and trash balls?" CalMatters, 9 Aug. 2021, calmatters.org/politics/2021/08/newsom-recall-john-cox-republicans/. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Denkmann, Libby. "California Counts Votes In Its Own Good Time. Here's Why Declaring Winners May Take A Minute." LAist, 3 Mar. 2020, laist.com/news/why-california-takes-so-long-to-count-votes-after-elections. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Franco, Jose. "Recall candidate Larry Elder set for third campaign appearance in Bakersfield." KGET News, 8 Sept. 2021, www.kget.com/news/politics/your-local-elections/recall-candidate-larry-elder-set-for-third-campaign-appearance-in-bakersfield/. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Fox, Joe, Priya Krishnakumar, and Jon Schleuss. "For the first time since Franklin D. Roosevelt, a majority in Orange County voted for a Democrat." Los Angeles Times, 11 Nov. 2016, www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-2016-orange-county-results/. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Greenwood, Max. "Sanders urges support for Newsom in new California recall ad." The Hill, 30 Aug. 2021, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/569985-sanders-urges-support-for-newsom-in-new-california-recall-ad. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Gregorczyk, Kasia. "Ex-San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer makes final push to appeal to recall voters." FOX 5, 3 Sept. 2021, fox5sandiego.com/news/politics/california-governor-recall/ex-san-diego-mayor-kevin-faulconer-makes-final-push-to-appeal-to-recall-voters/. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Kim, Catherine. "GOP confronts big trouble in Little Saigon." Politico, 24 Aug. 2021, www.politico.com/news/2021/08/24/republicans-asian-american-voters-506778. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021. 

Kopetman, Roxana, Brooke Staggs, and Ian Wheeler. "Why did Vietnamese voters in Orange County swing toward Trump in 2020?" Orange County Register, 7 Mar. 2021, www.ocregister.com/2021/03/07/why-did-vietnamese-voters-in-orange-county-swing-toward-trump-in-2020/. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

"Latest Polls Of The California Recall Election." FiveThirtyEight, last modified 10 Sept. 2021, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/california-recall-polls/. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Manthey, Grace. "California recall election: How many ballots have been returned in your county?" ABC7, 10 Sept. 2021, abc7news.com/california-recall-ballot-return-interactive-map-gavin-newsom-ballots/11011088/. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Marzorati, Guy. "In Imperial County, Warning Signs for California Democrats." KQED, 30 Aug. 2021, www.kqed.org/news/11886210/in-imperial-county-warning-signs-for-california-democrats. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

---. "Newsom Needs Latinos To Turn Out For The Recall, But He May Not Have Their Attention." National Public Radio, 10 Sept. 2021, www.npr.org/2021/09/10/1035148423/newsom-needs-latinos-to-turn-out-for-the-recall-but-may-not-have-their-attention. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Menezes, Ryan, and Maloy Moore. "Track the millions funding the campaign to recall California’s governor." Los Angeles Times, last modified 9 Sept. 2021, www.latimes.com/projects/california-recall-election-money-newsom-vs-jenner-cox/. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

"Overview of California." Statistical Atlas, last modified 4 Sept. 2018, statisticalatlas.com/state/California/Overview. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Reston, Maeve. "Harris rallies with Newsom to send a message to female voters in final days of California recall campaign." CNN, 8 Sept. 2021, www.cnn.com/2021/09/08/politics/kamala-harris-gavin-newsom-california-recall/index.html. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Ronayne, Kathleen. "Biden to campaign Monday with Newsom as recall nears end." Associated Press, 9 Sept. 2021, apnews.com/article/joe-biden-california-kamala-harris-coronavirus-pandemic-barack-obama-3073a1f6956374f22c15a4f104ccc982. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

---. "YouTuber hunts views and votes in California recall bid." Associated Press, 24 Aug. 2021, apnews.com/article/technology-business-california-2fefdddd204970936580081d6b1ed128. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021. 

Silver, Nate. "Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump." FiveThirtyEight, 22 Nov. 2016, fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Telles, Megan, and Kareen Wynter. "Gov. Newsom, Larry Elder rally voters in SoCal ahead of recall election." KTLA5, 6 Sept. 2021, ktla.com/news/local-news/gov-newsom-larry-elder-rallies-voters-in-socal-ahead-of-recall-election/. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

"United States Presidential Election Results." Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

"What to Expect During the California Vote Count Process." California Secretary of State Alex Padilla, 29 Oct. 2020, admin.cdn.sos.ca.gov/press-releases/2020/ap20-107.pdf. Accessed 12 Sept. 2021.

Willon, Phil. "New poll finds Newsom could easily beat recall thanks to motivated Democrats." Los Angeles Times, 10 Sept. 2021, www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-10/democrats-motivated-poll-finds-gavin-newsom-might-easily-survive-california-recall. Accessed 11 Sept. 2021.

9 Longtime (Presidential) County Voting Streaks that Could End in the Next 9 Years

9 Longtime (Presidential) County Voting Streaks that Could End in the Next 9 Years

Introduction: One of the most significant post-2020 election blog posts last year looked at counties that broke longtime voting streaks for one party. Among the longtime voting streak breakers included a longtime Republican county that voted for a Democrat for the first time (Riley, KS), a longtime Democratic county in South Texas that voted Republican for the first time in a century (Zapata, TX), and a bloc of traditionally-Republican suburban/urban counties that hadn't voted Democratic since 1948, 1964, or 1976. In addition to these flips, other counties with longtime voting streaks saw relatively close margins without flipping. Some of these locales had seen similar conditions in 2016 as the party coalitions began to change with Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. Today's post will go over 9 counties whose presidential voting streak for one party has lasted for at least 60 years and could break during this decade. Some of the counties below were previously featured on a pre-2016 election article on Sabato's Crystal Ball speculating on which counties with longtime voting streaks could flip in 2016 (Wheel).

Table 1: 2008-2020 Presidential Results by County

Data Source: Dave Leip's Database of Election Results (All Presidential), CNN (2018 Midterms), The New York Times (2014 Midterms).

Notes: Each number represents the percentage difference between the winning candidate and losing candidate in each county. 2020, 2016, 2012, and 2008 numbers are from the presidential election from each respective year. As 2018 was a midterm election year, counties from IN, MN, MT, OH, TX, and WI utilized the results from each state's regular Senate election. Since ID did not have a U.S. Senate election in 2018, I utilized its 2018 gubernatorial election results. In the 2014 midterm elections, MN, MT, TN, and TX's results reflect each state's Senate election, while OH and WI did not have Senate elections that year; the 2014 gubernatorial election results are used for both. Indiana did not have either a Senate or Gubernatorial election that year, thus no result is presented for Hamilton County for 2014.

Democratic-Voting Counties:

     Carlton County, MN (last voted Republican in 1928): 

     Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Minnesota highlighting Carlton County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Minnesota_highlighting_Carlton_County.svg. Accessed 2 Sept. 2021.

     The Iron Range has been a longtime Democratic stronghold that has helped all but two post-1928 Democratic Presidential candidates carry Minnesota; Adlai Stevenson in 1956/60 and George McGovern in 1972 are the exceptions. However, its blue tint has weakened under Trump, especially in non-urban areas, due to the region's blue-collar economy (especially mining and logging) witnessing a significant decline in recent decades (Coleman, 88-89; Orenstein). After Trump came onto the scene, Carlton County  narrowly voted for the ex-businessman both times, even after neighboring St. Louis County (containing Duluth and part of the rural Iron Range) slightly swung back after 2016. Although, precinct-level analysis has shown that much of the shift towards Biden in the latter was the result of the city of Duluth becoming more blue, while rural and small-town parts of the county did not budge from the 2016 results (Coleman, 88-89). Nonetheless, the fact that Trump in 2020 actually slightly improved his margin here compared to 2016 is a sign of Carlton's potential short-term prospect of becoming a purple or red-leaning county. 

     Deer Lodge County, MT (last voted Republican in 1924):

     Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Montana highlighting Deer Lodge County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Montana_highlighting_Deer_Lodge_County.svg. Accessed 2 Sept. 2021.

     Deer Lodge County has been voting Democratic longer than Montana counties that have been voting Republican since 1940 (Sullivan; Wheel). This blue-collar county with a historically-significant mining sector has seen significant economic decline in recent decades (Pentilla), and has followed the course of other similar counties during the Trump era, almost voting for Trump both times after voting for Obama twice by double-digits (Table 1). Neighboring Silver Bow County (Butte) also has a fairly-long Democratic voting streak, but did remain more blue in both 2016 and 2020 despite swinging as well, which could be the result of its more urban nature. Despite these top-level trends, Deer Lodge is still relatively-blue downballot, with Democratic Gubernatorial and Senate candidates outrunning Biden in 2020 ("Montana Election"), and Senator Jon Tester winning Deer Lodge by a larger margin than Obama as part of his narrow re-election in 2018 (Table 1).

     Portage County, WI (last voted Republican in 1956): 

     Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Wisconsin highlighting Portage County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 13 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Wisconsin_highlighting_Portage_County.svg. Accessed 2 Sept. 2021.

     Except for Barack Obama (D)'s performance in 2008, non-urban (i.e. "Danewaukee") Wisconsin is an increasingly-red area, but Stevens Point's Portage County is an exception, even if it has become less blue itself. Nonetheless, after voting for Obama twice by double-digits, the county narrowly voted for both Clinton and Biden (Table 1), and even became slightly more red in 2020. In the next few cycles, Portage County could potentially be a bellwether of Wisconsin's future electoral shifts, especially if it and the state continue to trend more Republican.

     Starr County, TX (last voted Republican in 1892): 

     Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Texas highlighting Starr County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Texas_highlighting_Starr_County.svg. Accessed 2 Sept. 2021.

     One of the 2020 Presidential Election's most talked-about results was Donald Trump (R)'s unexpectedly good showing in South Texas's majority-Latino region, where some counties shifted over 50% more Republican from 2016 (Rothschilds)! As detailed earlier, he became the first Republican since Warren Harding (R) to win Zapata County, and came extremely close to winning neighboring Starr, which is one of the few counties with a Democratic presidential voting streak stretching back over a century. In fact, other than a bloc of South Texas counties, before 2020, only Northampton County, North Carolina (a majority-Black county in the state's northeast) had a Democratic voting streak stretching back a century (Davis; Sullivan). Whether Trump's gains in this region were a one-off event or permanent remains to be seen, but Starr County's electoral results in the upcoming midterm and 2024 presidential elections will give a clear indication of whether it reverts to the pre-2020 environment or takes on the new trend. 

Republican-Voting Counties:

      Ada County, ID (last voted Democratic in 1936): 

     Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Idaho highlighting Ada County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Idaho_highlighting_Ada_County.svg. Accessed 2 Sept. 2021.

     A 2017 New Yorker piece about the "Red State, Blue City" effect highlighted Boise as a prime example of this Trump-era electoral trend, noting its highly-educated and young population, and the increasing presence of amenities serving these groups that are correlated with increased Democratic support (Davidson). The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won Idaho (1964), Boise's Ada County was not part of that coalition, as it had started voting red in 1940 (Sullivan). Yet, in recent cycles, Ada County has become less red to the point where Joe Biden came within 5 points of picking up Idaho's most-populated county, and both the 2014 and 2018 Gubernatorial candidates won Ada ("Governor Election"; Table 1). Reason for this shift include its high rate of education attainment and its Mormon population that Trump underperformed with in the 2016 primary, as well as its increasingly-young population, as noted above (Davidson; Wheel).

     Hamilton County, IN (last voted Democratic in 1916): 

     Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Indiana highlighting Hamilton County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Indiana_highlighting_Hamilton_County.svg. Accessed 2 Sept. 2021.

     Since World War I, Indiana has only voted blue four times (1932, 1936, 1964, 2008), with Hamilton County's Republican voting streak encompassing that whole period (Sullivan). But, there is a good possibility that this streak could break during this decade due to the massive electoral shifts occurring nationwide and here in the Trump era. For context, Hamilton County is a wealthy and very college-educated suburban county north of Indianapolis that gave Mitt Romney 67% in 2012 (hoosieraaron). But, with Trump in the picture, the county has shifted hard left, coming within 10% of Joe Biden (D)'s reach last year, which represents a major swing since 2012 (Table 1). In 2020, Hamilton County's Congressional District, IN-5, became a competitive race when Rep. Susan Brooks (R) decided to retire. While Republican nominee Victoria Spartz held the seat against Christina Hale (D), the margin was competitive, with Hamilton County only voting for Spartz by 11% ("Indiana House; "Republican Victoria").

     Carver County, MN (last voted Democratic in 1932): 

     Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Minnesota highlighting Carver County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Minnesota_highlighting_Carver_County.svg. Accessed 2 Sept. 2021.

     While Minnesota's formerly-blue rural areas such as Carlton County have become less blue recently, the Twin Cities suburbs have become a newly-formed "firewall" for statewide Democrats, with Joe Biden's performance there helping swing the state left (Coleman, 89-90; Eligon; Montgomery). While suburban Carver County has yet to vote Democratic, it came very close in 2020 as the blue tint from Hennepin began to wash over the county boundary. Like other historically-Republican suburban counties nationwide that voted or nearly voted for Clinton and Biden after voting red, Carver County is highly-affluent, economically-prosperous, increasingly-young, and increasingly connected to the Twin Cities Metro (Felegy; Miller). These traits match that of other once-red suburban, suburban/exurban, and urban counties that have become less red or even turned blue under Trump, including those listed both above and below this entry.

     Delaware County, OH (last voted Democratic in 1916): 

     Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Ohio highlighting Delaware County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Ohio_highlighting_Delaware_County.svg. Accessed 2 Sept. 2021.

     In the midst of Ohio's massive pro-Republican shift under Trump, the home county of ex-Governor and high-profile Trump critic John Kasich (R) has become a notable exception. In many ways, Delaware County is almost similar to Hamilton County in many ways, such as its voting streak dating back to 1916 and seeing the exact same margin in 2020, although the two had been voting relatively the same in the last few cycles (Table 1). But, in what seems like a broken record, Delaware County is largely suburban, wealthy, and highly-educated, and has seen a significant shift during the Trump era (Coleman, 93). And like Hamilton, IN, Delaware's shift already began in the middle of Trump's term, which became evident in the August 2018 special election in Delaware County's Congressional District, OH-12. In that election, Republican Troy Balderson narrowly won the district over Democrat Danny O'Connor, with Delaware voting for Balderson by less than 10% (Brownstein). Several months later, Senator Sherrod Brown (D) also lost Delaware County by single-digits as part of his third election victory (Table 1). And, despite Ohio barely moving between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, Delaware voted for Donald Trump (R) by a similar margin to its 2018 margins, but far narrower than 2016, which in turn was a massive shift from 2012 (Table 1). With these results in mind, Delaware County seems primed to vote blue sometime this decade, assuming the Trump-era electoral coalitions and shifts continue.

     Knox County, TN (last voted Democratic in 1940): 

     

     Image Source: Benbennick, David. "File:Map of Tennessee highlighting Knox County.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 12 Feb. 2006, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Tennessee_highlighting_Knox_County.svg. Accessed 2 Sept. 2021.

     Eastern Tennessee has been a Republican stronghold since the party was first allowed on the ballot in the region, which is no surprise considering the region's massive opposition to the Confederacy and the pre-Civil war Democratic Party that almost resulted it becoming its own state vis-à-vis West Virginia (Garrett). In fact, a group of counties in this region (and neighboring KY and NC) have not voted for any Democratic presidential candidates for over a century, which includes the nationwide sweeps under both FDR and LBJ (Sullivan). In the midst of this cluster is the most urban and least red, Knox County, home of Knoxville. While its 2020 results still make it more red than the other counties on this list, Knox County deserves to be mentioned because of it becoming a unique electoral sore thumb in a region that has been dark red for a long time, and its additional potential for it to shift even further if the current coalitions continue due to its urban nature. 

Table 1 Data Sources:

"2004 Presidential General Election Results." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

"2008 Presidential General Election Results." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

"2012 Presidential General Election Results." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

"2016 Presidential General Election Results." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

"2020 Presidential General Election Results." David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

"Governor Election Results 2014." The New York Times, last modified 17 Dec. 2014, www.nytimes.com/elections/2014/results/governor?utm_source=top_nav&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=election-2014. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

"National Results." CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2018/results. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

• 2018 Election Results

"Senate Election Results 2014." The New York Times, last modified 17 Dec. 2014, www.nytimes.com/elections/2014/results/senate?utm_source=top_nav&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=election-2014. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

Works Cited: 

Brownstein, Ronald. "The Ohio Results Point to Democratic Strength in 2018—And a Showdown in 2020." The Atlantic, 8 Aug. 2018, www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/08/trump-oconnor-balderson-ohio-special-election/567050/. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

Coleman, J. Miles. "A Political Road Trip Across the Country." A Return to Normalcy?, edited by J. Miles Coleman, Kyle Kondik, and Larry J. Sabato, Rowman and Littlefield, pp. 81-99.

Coleman, J. Miles, Kyle Kondik, and Larry J. Sabato, editors. A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America, Rowman and Littlefield, 2021.

Davidson, Justin. "Cities Vs. Trump." Intelligencer, The New Yorker, 17 Apr. 2017, nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/04/the-urban-rural-divide-matters-more-than-red-vs-blue-state.html. Accessed 4 Sept. 2021.

Davis, Ben. "The 10 swing state counties that tell the story of the 2020 election." The Guardian, 24 Nov. 2020, www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/24/the-10-swing-state-counties-that-tell-the-story-of-the-2020-election. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021. 

Eligon, John. "How a Minneapolis Suburb Turned Blue, Despite Trump’s Law-and-Order Pitch." The New York Times, 16 Nov. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/us/biden-suburbs-blue-minneapolis.html. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

Felegy, Amy. "Carver County Republican-DFL gap shrinks." Southwest News Media, 12 Nov. 2020, www.swnewsmedia.com/chanhassen_villager/news/election/carver-county-republican-dfl-gap-shrinks/article_ed922a40-aa0a-5938-aa9c-1f00bc88aff7.html. Accessed 4 Sept. 2021.

Garrett, Ben. "How Scott County became Tennessee’s most Republican county." The Independent Herald, 9 Nov. 2020, www.ihoneida.com/2020/11/09/how-scott-county-became-tennessees-most-republican-county/. Accessed 4 Sept. 2021.

hoosieraaron. "Biden Republicans are real and they live in Carmel, Indiana." Daily Kos, 12 Apr. 2021, www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/4/12/2025450/-Biden-Republicans-are-real-and-they-live-in-Carmel-Indiana. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

"Indiana House Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last modified 6 Mar. 2021, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/indiana/house/district-5. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

Miller, Derek. "The Happiest Places in America – 2018 Edition. SmartAsset, 12 Jun. 2018, smartasset.com/mortgage/happiest-places-in-america-2018-edition. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

"Montana Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last modified 6 Mar. 2021, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/montana. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

Montgomery, David H. "Facts don't support GOP Chair Carnahan's election claims." Minnesota Public Radio, 20 Nov. 2020, www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/20/mngop-chairs-election-claims-unsupported-by-facts. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

Orenstein, Walker. "What we learned from the Greater Minnesota vote in 2020." Minnesota Post, 5 Nov. 2020, www.minnpost.com/greater-minnesota/2020/11/what-we-learned-from-the-greater-minnesota-vote-in-2020/. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

Pentilla, Annie. "Anaconda economic development advocates bet on downtown revitalization as winning strategy." Helena Independent Record, 29 Jan. 2017, helenair.com/business/anaconda-economic-development-advocates-bet-on-downtown-revitalization-as-winning-strategy/article_3d8faf29-caf6-52a5-baa9-2af157fc9895.html. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

"Republican Victoria Spartz wins election to U.S. House in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District." CBS4 Indianapolis, 4 Nov. 2020, cbs4indy.com/news/vote-count-continues-in-tight-indiana-congressional-race/. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021.

Rothschild, Neal. "Four demographic trends that explain Biden's victory." Axios, 11 Nov. 2020, www.axios.com/election-biden-trump-demographics-639b6c8e-6e5c-43c8-962f-dca6a127c4ef.html. Accessed 5 Sept. 2021. 

Sullivan, Robert David. "How the red and blue map evolved over the past century." America: The Jesuit Review, 29 Jun. 2016, www.americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/how-red-and-blue-map-evolved-over-past-century. Accessed 2 Sept. 2021. 

Wheel, Robert. "The 2016 Streak Breakers." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 6 Oct. 2016, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-2016-streak-breakers/. Accessed 2 Sept. 2021. 

Whetstone, Tyler. "Longtime Knox County GOP insider Dean Rice is leaving the party. He wants to tell you why." knox news, 21 Aug. 2021, www.knoxnews.com/story/news/politics/2021/08/19/knox-county-gop-insider-dean-rice-leaving-party/5487127001/. Accessed 4 Sept. 2021.

The Past Two Weeks, Told by House Roll Call Votes, vol. 1, ed. 4

Author's Note: Today's edition of The Past Two Weeks, Told by House Roll Call Votes is short as the U.S. House is currently not in a normal session (Lesniewski), although there were three significant votes worth covering for today's post.

August Updates on this Year's Congressional and Gubernatorial Elections

August Updates on this Year's Congressional and Gubernatorial Elections

Introduction: My first regular blog post of the year was a rundown of Gubernatorial and special Congressional elections scheduled for 2021, which I subsequently updated in March to reflect several new additions. With the exception of FL-20's special election that will occur early next year, all of this year's gubernatorial and special Congressional races have held their primaries. Thus, today will be a quick update on the status of elections held after the last special Congressional elections post, and ones that will be held later in the year.

Special Congressional:

• NM-1 (June 1st): Democratic concern over this House race in a fairly-blue but historically less-so seat subsided on election night when Democratic nominee Melanie Stansbury (D) netted a solid victory, winning over 60% of the vote (Bradner et al.). 
• TX-6 Runoff (July 27th): In the May first-round election, Democrats were dismayed at failing to secure a spot in this election's "top two" runoff. Instead, Republicans Susan Wright (the widow of Rep. Ron Wright, who died of COVID in February) and state representative Jake Ellzey (R) competed in the July runoff. Despite Donald Trump's endorsement of Wright, Ellzey won the runoff narrowly, which is speculated to be a result of his campaign messaging and views on public education attracting Democratic voters (Svitek).
• OH-11 Special (primaries on August 3rd, general on November 2nd): The Democratic Primary in this special election was closely-followed as a barometer of the ongoing progressive surge in solidly-blue districts. Previously thought to be a front-runner, high-profile progressive Nina Turner (D) lost to Cuyahoga County Councilmember Shontel Brown (D), who pitched a more moderate tone and agenda (Richardson). This was despite Turner leading significantly in both fundraising and polling going into August (Richardson). Of note is that in the closing stage of the campaign, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D), a prominent Black Democrat, came out in full support of Brown, along with the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) (Richardson). This very same factor was paramount in securing Joe Biden's critical South Carolina primary victory last year that eventually carried him into the presidency, as Clyburn's endorsement of Biden helped solidify the Black vote around the eventual nominee (Zurcher). Another important factor that may have helped Brown was her explicit support for President Biden (D) and other prominent Democratic leaders, while Turner has been hostile to the Democratic establishment, especially after the 2016 and 2020 Presidential Primaries (Gomez, "Shontel"; Wiersema and Yin).
• OH-15 Special (primaries on August 3rd, general on November 2nd): As stated previously, OH-15's special election is unlikely to be very competitive despite being in a moderately-red district (Coleman and Kondik). The Republican nominee is former coal executive Mike Carey, while the Democratic Party nominated State Representative Allison Russo (Gomez, "Trump").

Gubernatorial:

• California Recall (September 14th): Right after my most recent post on the California Gubernatorial recall, the California recall started to gain significant attention due to tightening polls on Question 1 (Whether to recall the Governor) and Democratic concern that Governor Newsom may be in danger. In line with this, the state party and Newsom have been encouraging voters to not vote on the second question (replacement Governor), fearing that it could lead to more "Yes" votes on Question 1 and show party disunity (Blake). The leading candidate for Question 2 is conservative-libertarian talk show host Larry Elder (R), who went from entering last-minute to leading the horse race, even above established Republicans such as ex-San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R) and ex-U.S. Representative Doug Ose (R). Elder's controversial positions on racial and cultural issues has led to comparisons between him and Donald Trump, especially considering his status as a political outsider against an intrenched incumbent (Singh). Meanwhile, the only "notable" Democrat in the race is YouTuber Kevin Paffrath. As stated previously, no top-tier Democrats jumped-in, which was probably the result of the party's wish to avoid showing disunity in the recall (Blake). 
• New Jersey (primaries on June 8th, general on November 2nd): Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy (D) won his primary without opposition, and will face ex-State Representative Jack Ciattarelli, a relative moderate (Steele). Recent polling shows Murphy's once-higher statewide approval rating to be slipping slightly, although popular opinion of his performance remains higher ("Eagleton"). If Governor Murphy wins a second term, he will be the first Democrat to achieve that feat since the 1970s (Steele).
• Virginia (November 2nd): On the Democratic side, former Governor Terry McAuliffe made it out of a competitive primary to the nomination, hoping to re-win his former position. His Republican opponent ended up being none of the ones listed on the January post, but was instead venture capitalist Glenn Youngkin, who was nominated through a convention instead of a primary (Rankin). Recent polls have shown this race to be close, and the race is predicted to be a very competitive and expensive one that could reveal voter attitudes in the lead-up to next year's midterms (Kilgore; Leshan).

Works Cited: 

Blake, Aaron. "Democrats confront a nightmare scenario in California recall." The Washington Post, 20 Aug. 2021, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/08/20/democrats-nightmare-recall-newsom/. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Bradner, Eric, Ethan Cohen, and Rachel Janfaza. "Democrat Melanie Stansbury wins New Mexico special election for US House seat, CNN projects." CNN, 2 Jun. 2021, www.cnn.com/2021/06/01/politics/new-mexico-1st-district-special-election/index.html. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021. 

Coleman, J. Miles, and Kyle Kondik. "Notes on the State of Politics: April 20, 2021." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 20 Apr. 2021, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-4-20-21/. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

"Eagleton Poll: Murphy Has 55% Approval Rating; Favorable Rating Dips Below 50%." InsiderNJ, 7 Jun. 2021, www.insidernj.com/eagleton-poll-murphy-55-approval-rating-favorable-rating-dips-50/. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Gomez, Henry J. "Shontel Brown, who stuck close to Biden, wins Democratic primary for House seat in Ohio, AP projects." NBC News, 3 Aug. 2021, www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/shontel-brown-defeats-nina-turner-ohio-11th-congressional-district-n1275878. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

---. "Trump-backed Mike Carey wins GOP special election primary in Ohio's 15th District, AP projects." NBC News, 3 Aug. 2021, www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/trump-backed-candidate-mike-carey-wins-special-election-primary-ohio-n1275875. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Kilgore, Ed. "Virginia Is in for a Close, Expensive Governor’s Race." Intelligencer, The New Yorker, 15 Jun. 2021, nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/06/virginia-likely-to-have-close-expensive-governors-race.html. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Leshan, Bruce. "McAuliffe pushes hospital vaccine mandate, Youngkin campaigns for gas tax holiday on Northern Virginia visits." WUSA9, 11 Aug. 2021, www.wusa9.com/article/features/producers-picks/virginia-governor-candidates-mcauliffe-and-youngkin-slam-each-other-over-taxes-and-vaccine-mandates/65-4847901a-f17b-443a-9369-b0148ea4dc24. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Rankin, Sarah. "McAuliffe Wins Democratic Nomination for Virginia Governor." NBC Washington, 8 Jun. 2021, www.nbcwashington.com/news/politics/virginia-democratic-primary-governor-results/2694648/. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Richardson, Seth A. "Shontel Brown wins Democratic primary in 11th Congressional District special election." Cleveland.com, 3 Aug. 2020, www.cleveland.com/open/2021/08/shontel-brown-leading-democratic-primary-in-11th-congressional-district-special-election.html. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Singh, Maanvi. "‘A complete shock’: the rightwing contrarian leading the California recall race." The Guardian, 22 Aug. 2021, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/22/larry-elder-california-governor-recall-election. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Steele, Allison. "Jack Ciattarelli has won the Republican primary to face New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy." The Philadelphia Inquirer, 9 Jun. 2021, www.inquirer.com/politics/election/new-jersey-primary-election-results-jack-ciattarelli-phil-murphy-20210608.html. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Svitek, Patrick. "How Republican Jake Ellzey's bipartisan appeal, positive campaign helped him upset Trump's pick for Congress." Texas Tribune, 29 Jul. 2021, www.texastribune.org/2021/07/29/jake-ellzey-donald-trump-texas-6-congressional-seat/. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Wiersema, Alisa, and Tina Yin. "Democrats face off in heated battle over Ohio’s 11th District primary." ABC News, 3 Aug. 2021, abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrats-face-off-heated-battle-ohios-11th-district/story?id=79217958. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Zurcher, Anthony. "South Carolina primary: Who are the winners and losers?" British Broadcasting Corporation, 1 Mar. 2020, www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51678640. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Correlation on Support for 2020 California Propositions and the Presidential Vote

Author's Note: There will not be a post next Sunday, August 15th, 2021. This blog will resume the following week. 

A State of Temporary Blue Rebound: Iowa's Four House Elections from 2018

A State of Temporary Blue Rebound: Iowa's Four House Elections from 2018

Introduction: I consider Iowa to be a state whose election results tend to "swing with the national tide," and 2018 was no exception. After Donald Trump (R) won Iowa by almost double-digits in 2016, Iowa swung back at the Federal-level two years later, with two of the state's three Republican House seats flipping blue and the third almost flipping as well. Yet, as noted after the 2020 elections, despite the 2018 Iowa Democratic resurgence, the state also showed signs that it was permanently becoming more Republican, even without considering the 2018 Gubernatorial election and the county-level results from the House elections. Today's post will look at Iowa's four Congressional elections from 2018 and explore what the results mean for future Buckeye State electoral politics, and whether it can still be said if Iowa moves with the tide. 

Visual 1: Iowa 2018 U.S. House Results by District

Data Source: "Election Canvass"

District-by-District Rundown:

• IA-1: This district was previously covered on the post about perennially-competitive Congressional districts, but it's time to come back to IA-1. Most of the following information is a summarized version of that post's discussion about IA-1. Spanning Northeastern Iowa, this region voted for Barack Obama (D) by double-digits twice before voting for Donald Trump (R) twice. At the House-level, as explained on the earlier post, the district started the decade being represented by Bruce Braley (D), who left in 2014 to seek Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat (which he failed to win). The open IA-1 was won by Rod Blum (D), who won another term two years later as Trump took the state by 9%, and won the district. In 2018, Blum was considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans due to expectations that the district would swing back to its Democratic roots. This proved true on Election Day, when state legislator Abby Finkenauer (D) flipped the district blue once again with a 5% winning margin. Reflecting the district's perennial competitiveness, Rep. Finkenauer's aspirations for a second term in 2020 were thwarted byAshley Hinson (R), who flipped back the seat as Trump won the state and district again. 
• IA-2: Unlike IA-1 and IA-3, IA-2 stands out for having a Democratic representative through the whole of Iowa's Republican shift after 2012, that is until 2020. Before 2020, IA-2 was represented by Rep. Dave Loebsack (D), who originally won the seat in an upset victory as part of the 2006 Blue Wave (Kondik, "House Rating"). Until 2020, Rep. Loebsack had multiple close races (especially 2014), but managed to hold onto the seat every time. This includes 2016, when he became one of 12 Democratic House members holding a Trump-won congressional seat, and one that voted for Obama by double-digits before voting for Trump (Kondik, "House 2018"). In 2018, Rep. Loebsack won a double-digit victory over Republican Christopher Peters (who had also ran in 2016) that restored some of the pre-Trump Democratic county map, especially along in the "Driftless Region" along the Mississippi River (Sullivan; Visual 1). Several months after the 2018 elections, Rep. Loebsack announced his retirement from the seat in 2020, which was immediately considered to be a competitive race (Kondik, "House Rating"). "Competitive" was proven true on Election Day, as Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks (who had previously ran for the seat multiple times) won by 6 votes against Democrat Rita Hart (D), while Trump won IA-2 once again (Foley; Singer, "Daily Kos"). In the aftermath, Hart tried to dispute the election results, even after Miller-Meeks was sworn-in. She ended up dropping this challenge in March, but not without drawing criticism from prominent Republicans (Karsen). 
• IA-3: Despite containing the increasingly-blue city of Des Moines and its suburbs, IA-3's overall lean is also influenced by the rest of the district being majority-rural and dark-red. During the 2018 elections, this seat was held by Rep. David Young (R), who had first won the seat in 2014 after Rep. Tom Latham (R) retired. Latham in turn had beaten Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) in 2012 when the two incumbents ran in IA-3 due to redistricting (Kondik, "Getaway"). Like IA-1 and IA-2, IA-3 voted for both Obama and Trump, although the former did not win by double-digits in 2012 (Singer, "Daily Kos"). For this reason, it was also considered a competitive district in 2018, especially with the Democratic nominee being businesswoman Cindy Axne (D), who fit the profile of female Democratic candidates in similar districts by running heavily on healthcare (Rood et al.). Axne went on to win a narrow victory in 2018 against Rep. Young, which she followed-up with another narrow win in a rematch two years later (Belin). After the 2020 elections, as Rep. Finkenauer lost and the open IA-2 flipped, Rep. Axne became the only Democratic member in Iowa's Congressional delegation. The irony of this is that after the 2014 elections, the only Democratic member in the delegation was Rep. Loebsack in IA-2, who had won a narrow victory himself that year. As will be discussed in the conclusion, this could be taken as evidence of the Trump-era shift in the Iowa's Democratic base from being more spread out to becoming more concentrated in the state's cities, evident by the district voting for Trump by 0.1%, compared with the others having larger margins (Singer, "Daily Kos"). 
• IA-4: Even in a normal "Blue Wave" year, IA-4 would not be expected to be a competitive seat, as it is the most-Republican-leaning district in the state by a longshot (Singer, "Despite"). But, the district's Congressional race ended up being close and competitive in 2018 due to the presence of its controversial incumbent, Rep. Steve King (R), who openly espoused pro-White supremacist and other controversial views. Going into the 2018 general election, with these comments resurfacing and Rep. King meeting an Austrian neo-Nazi party as part of a European trip (among other controversies), Congressional Republican leaders denounced him, refused to support his campaign, and stripped the Representative of all committee assignments (Arkin et al.; Nilsen). In the general election, King faced J.D. Scholten (D), a paralegal and former athlete who presented himself as a moderate Democrat. Yet, the district's lean was too much for Scholten despite Rep. King's extensive baggage and 2018 being a Blue Wave year; as the incumbent won by just over 3% (Nilsen). Two years later Rep. King would lose the Republican primary to Randy Feenstra, who went on to win a large victory over Scholten in the general (Singer, "Despite"). 

Statewide Discussion and Analysis: One of the main results that sticks out is the extent (or lack) of the 2018 Democratic resurgence after Trump's 2016 victory in Iowa. For context, in the latter year, Hillary Clinton (D) only won the counties of Polk (Des Moines), Story (Ames), Johnson (Iowa City), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Black Hawk (Waterloo), and Scott (Davenport) ("Iowa Election Results 2016"). Note that in 2012, Obama won over 30 counties in the state (Sullivan), which shows the extent of Trump's surge, especially in rural and small-city counties. While some of these Obama-Trump or -Romney counties flipped back in the 2018 House elections, it is notable that most that did were dominated by smaller cities, such as Cerro Gordo (Mason City), Des Moines (Burlington), Woodbury (Sioux City) and Webster (Fort Dodge). Only several thinly-populated and rural-dominated counties voted for Democratic House candidates. The most notable instance was in IA-2, where incumbent Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack won a double-digit victory. Another group of such counties voted light-red this year in IA-4, possibly a reflection of Rep. King's controversial nature sagging down his performance. 

What these results reveal is the 2018 Democratic resurgence in Iowa was concentrated in urban-dominated counties, while more rural- and small town-dominated counties that had previously been the backbone of Democratic victories prior to Trump remained red, even in IA-1 and -2. This trend continued into 2020, when Joe Biden (D) won the same group of counties that Clinton did four years prior ("Iowa Election Results and Maps 2020"), although some downballot Democratic strength in Trump-2018 Democratic counties remained, especially in IA-2 and -3. In the former, Clinton (Clinton) and Jefferson (two counties left of Burlington on Visual 1) Counties voted for Hart, who outran Biden by several percentage points despite her nail-thin loss ("Singer, "Daily Kos" ; Singer, "Despite"). Finally, it is important to remember that IA-4 likely would not have been competitive without Rep. King on the ballot, which may further present the image that the state "rebounded" after Trump's 9% win of the state when looking at the U.S. House election results alone. 

Conclusion: One of the reasons I like analyzing Iowa election results by Congressional District like in is because the district borders do not split any counties, something that probably stems from the state's redistricting procedures mandating no county splits ("Iowa"). In a post-2020 election Tweet, I went as far to compare ABC's election map to a toddler's puzzle because of each district's shape along with the lack of repeating colors for any Iowa district; note that I made the Tweet before the situation in IA-2 was resolved. Regardless of the reason, this arrangement makes studying Iowa's election results by Congressional district simplistic, especially in comparing House results with other races in the same area. Like other states, Iowa is set to redraw its Congressional districts soon, as the deadline is exactly a month from when this blog post is published (Akin). There is no telling what the final districts will look like at this point, but considering the pro-Republican trend that has taken place in the last decade, it will likely not be easy for Democratic candidates to win any districts in the state, barring other electoral trends. Going back to the first sentence under "introduction," 2018 is arguably Iowa's most recent instance of "swinging with the national tide" overall, evident by 3 of its 4 House seats being Democratic-held for the first time in the decade. However, despite its deviation from the national Presidential result, it somewhat fit the definition in 2020 due to the loss of 2 Democratic U.S. House seats, something that matched the trend in House races of that year. 

Works Cited: 

Akin, Katie. "Iowa redistricting: Data expected Aug. 16, DeJear leaves temporary commission." Iowa Capital Dispatch, 6 Jul. 2021, iowacapitaldispatch.com/2021/07/06/iowa-redistricting-data-expected-aug-16-dejear-leaves-temporary-commission/. Accessed 31 Jul. 2021. 

Arkin, James, Zach Montellaro, and Ally Mutnick. "Steve King ousted on historic primary night." Politico, 2 Jun. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/06/02/voters-historic-june-primary-despite-coronavirus-civil-unrest-297350. Accessed 31 Jul. 2021. 

Belin, Laura. "IA-03: How vulnerable is Cindy Axne?" Bleeding Heartland, 4 Mar. 2021, www.bleedingheartland.com/2021/03/04/ia-03-how-vulnerable-is-cindy-axne/. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

"Election Canvass Summary." Iowa Secretary of State's Office, 3 Dec. 2018, sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/canvsummary.pdf. Accessed 31 Jul. 2021. 

Foley, Ryan J. "Iowa board certifies 6-vote Republican win in US House race." Associated Press, 30 Nov. 2020, apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-iowa-mariannette-miller-meeks-elections-e3f235f217707a78fcec059f8e0b4ffa. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

Karson, Kendall. "Democrat Rita Hart ends election challenge in close Iowa House race." ABC News, 31 Mar. 2021, abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrat-rita-hart-ends-election-challenge-close-iowa/story?id=76796759. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

Kondik, Kyle. "Getaway day in the House." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 17 Dec. 2013, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/getaway-day-in-the-house/. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

---. "House 2018: Crossover appeal." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 9 Feb. 2017, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2018-crossover-appeal/. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

---. "House Rating Changes." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 23 Jul. 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-rating-changes/. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

"Iowa." All About Redistricting, redistricting.lls.edu/state/iowa/?cycle=2020&level=Congress&startdate=. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

"Iowa Election Results 2016." The New York Times, last modified 1 Aug. 2017, www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/iowa. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

"Iowa Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last modified 5 Dec. 2020, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/iowa. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

Nilsen, Ella. "Republican Rep. Steve King hangs on to his seat, but just barely." Vox, 7 Nov. 2018, www.vox.com/2018/11/7/18057226/house-midterm-results-iowa-4th-jd-scholten-winner. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

Rood, Lee, Barbara Rodriguez, and Linh Ta. "Voter frustration over Trump, health care launches Axne to the U.S. House." Des Moines Register, 7 Nov. 2018, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/05/iowa-election-2018-results-us-house-3rd-district-cindy-axne-david-young-congress-republican-democrat/1732589002/. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

Singer, Jeff. "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012." Daily Kos, 19 Nov. 2020, www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020-2016-and-2012. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

---. "Despite high hopes of gaining ground in Iowa, Democrats saw a serious setback." Daily Kos, 2 Dec. 2020, www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/12/2/1999490/-Despite-high-hopes-of-gaining-ground-in-Iowa-Democrats-saw-a-serious-setback. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021. 

Sullivan, Robert David. "How the red and blue map evolved over the past century." America: The Jesuit Review, 29 Jun. 2016, www.americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/how-red-and-blue-map-evolved-over-past-century. Accessed 1 Aug. 2021.  

July Update on the California Gubernatorial Recall

July Update on the California Gubernatorial Recall

Introduction: One of the biggest political developments to occur this year is the Gavin Newsom recall movement's success in making it to the ballot this year. With the recall election scheduled for September 14th, this will be the fourth gubernatorial recall attempt to occur in American history, and the second in California (along with the famous 2003 one). Since my previous coverage of the recall movement occurred before the election was made official and replacement candidates started jumping in, today's post will provide updates on the situation.

Notable Replacement Candidates: On July 21, California's Secretary of State certified the candidate list, with 46 candidates qualifying as replacement candidates on Question 2, compared with 135 in the 2003 recall (Nixon). Remember that Question 2 is only relevant if a majority of voters choose "Yes" on Question 1 (to recall the official from office). 

• John Cox (R): In 2018, Cox made it out of the "Jungle Primary" into one of the general election slots, losing to Newsom in the fall (Source). Cox's campaign gained attention due to his use of a live Bear, and subsequent re-branding of his campaign with a focus on the creature and him as a "Beast" (Marinucci, "California"). At the same time, Cox has been critical of the state Republican Party, accusing them of favoring Faulconer over him as part of the endorsement process (Ronayne, "California's recall election"). 
• Larry Elder (R): After some last-minute shenanigans involving requirements to qualify for the ballot, the conservative Black talk show host was included on the recall ballot after a Sacramento County judge ruled in his favor. The dispute was over California's election law that requires candidates submit 5 years worth of tax returns to be eligible; the Secretary of State's office had ruled that his tax return paperwork did not satisfy the requirements. Despite his late entry, Elder has gained significant attention, reflected by him leading the recent Emeron College poll (discussed below) (White). 
• Doug Ose (R): Ose previously served as the U.S. Representative for CA-3, and previously ran in the 2018 Gubernatorial election before dropping out. As a moderate Republican, Ose hopes to use this credential to work with state Democrats to resolve some of California's most pressing issues, but faces a challenge in elevating his profile (Blood, "Former GOP"). 
• Kevin Faulconer (R): Formerly the Mayor of San Diego, Faulconer was widely speculated as a potential candidate for the 2018 Gubernatorial election, but gave that race a pass in the end ("San Diego Mayor"). During his tenure as Mayor, he built up a moderate profile, and has since been seen as a rising Republican star in a state that has become nearly unwinnable for the GOP. The main challenge facing his campaign is whether his heavy focus on policies and desire to be a "serious" candidate will win over GOP voters, especially when compared to the campaign personas of other candidates in the field (Christopher). 
• Caitlyn Jenner (R): Probably the most-discussed replacement candidate so far is ex-Olympian and Wheaties icon formerly known as Bruce Jenner, whose launch video highlighted her background as an Olympic athlete and personality of being a "compassionate disrupter" ("California Recall"). Despite the extensive coverage of her campaign, it has also not generated significant fundraising results, campaign infrastructure, or Republican endorsements, and was trailing in polls behind the other candidates profiled above (Marinucci, "Jenner"). 

No notable Democrats qualified for the ballot, which is likely a reflection of the state party's optimism that Governor Newsom could survive the recall, and to boost partisan unity going into the recall (Ronayne, "California's recall ballot"). This contrasts with the 2003 recall, when then-Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante (D) ran as a potential replacement for Davis (May and Yamamura). Yet, it is important to note that in 2003, California was more Republican-leaning and Governor Gray Davis (D) was far more unpopular, with 70% of the state's voters have an unpopular opinion of him before the recall (Kiefer; May and Yamamura). 

Polling: Generally, recent polls have shown that Californians desire to keep Governor Newsom in office, with views polarized along partisan lines. Going in line with national political trends, a vast majority of state Democrats support keeping Newsom in office, and vice-versa for Republicans (Nixon). Polling on Question 2 shows an uncertain result if that Question were to become relevant in the actual election. A poll conducted last week by Emerson College showed no candidate above 20%, with over half of those polled being uncertain about their choice. Among the prominent Republicans, John Cox (R) and Larry Elder (R) have led the last two polls, with the other candidates being just behind ("California Voters"; Iverson). 

The Emerson College poll indicated that California's homeless crisis is a significant policy issue, evident by a majority of those polled responding "poor" to the Governor's handling of the situation. Other significant issues include the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, related pandemic measures, wildfires, and the emerging drought. In particular, a vast majority of voters are concerned about the COVID Delta variant, but are split on measures to contain it ("California Voters"). 

Conclusion: Unless there is a significant development before that point, I do not plan to put out another California Gubernatorial recall post until September 12th, the last Sunday before the election, where I do a final pre-election overview. Despite the physical election day still being over a month and a half away, ballots will start being sent out next week by mail (Mays and Yamamura). In the meantime, as described above, current polling shows Governor Newsom as likely to survive the recall, which is likely a dual reflection on the recall movement's intensity and the state's partisan lean. Nonetheless, the final margin on Question 1 could give hints as to the real strength of California Democrats and Republicans in the current era, especially with increasing polarization and tribalism in American politics. 

Works Cited: 

Blood, Michael. "Former GOP Rep. Doug Ose enters California recall election." Associated Press, 16 Mar. 2021, apnews.com/article/john-cox-kevin-faulconer-san-diego-elections-coronavirus-pandemic-d567c8d7703cccbf9fb56236ade9e767. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

---. "San Diego ex-mayor Faulconer to run for California governor." Associated Press, 2 Feb. 2021, apnews.com/article/los-angeles-kevin-faulconer-san-diego-coronavirus-pandemic-elections-8e504350ee04cbc4713f08f0ab467b33. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

"California Voters Split on Recalling Governor Newsom." Emerson College Polling, emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/california-voters-split-on-recalling-governor-newsom. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Christopher, Ben. "A serious man: Can Kevin Faulconer run for governor without the gimmicks?" CalMatters, 18 Jun. 2021, calmatters.org/politics/2021/06/kevin-faulconer-governor/. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Iverson, Erik. "California Recall Survey Results." Moore Information Group, 9 Jun. 2021, johncox.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/MEMO-Interested-Parties-MIG-June-9-2021.pdf. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Kiefer, Francine. "Why California’s governor is facing a recall vote. Three questions." Christian Science Monitor, 27 Apr. 2021, www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2021/0427/Why-California-s-governor-is-facing-a-recall-vote.-Three-questions. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Marinucci, Carla. "California recall brings circus act to town." Politico, 4 May 2021, www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/05/04/california-recall-goes-into-circus-mode-1380199. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

---. "Jenner insists she's leading California recall field despite polling." Politico, 9 Jul. 2021, www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/07/09/jenner-insists-shes-leading-california-recall-field-despite-polling-1388190. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Mays, McKenzie, and Kevin Yamamura. "California has 41 candidates for September recall election." Politico, 18 Jul. 2021, www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/07/18/california-has-41-candidates-for-september-recall-election-1388537. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Nixon, Nicole. "California Recall: What To Know About The Effort To Remove Gavin Newsom." Capital Public Radio, 22 Jul. 2021, www.capradio.org/articles/2021/07/22/signatures-are-in-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-gavin-newsom-recall-effort/. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Ronayne, Kathleen. "California’s recall ballot is set, but GOP strategy isn’t." Associated Press, 22 Jul. 2021, apnews.com/article/health-government-and-politics-california-coronavirus-pandemic-05c97aaeeaba8a3c9185848d7a6b78be. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

---. "California's recall election is now set. Can the GOP oust Newsom?" Christian Science Monitor, 23 Jul. 2021, www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2021/0723/California-s-recall-election-is-now-set.-Can-the-GOP-oust-Newsom. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

"San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer discussing 2018 California governor’s race." The Orange County Register, 7 Jan. 2017, www.ocregister.com/2017/01/07/san-diego-mayor-kevin-faulconer-discussing-2018-california-governors-race/. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

White, Jeremy. "California recall has 46 candidates after last-minute jockeying." Politico, 21 Jul. 2021, www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/07/21/talk-show-host-larry-elder-reinstated-in-california-recall-1388853. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

A post-2008 Electoral Tale of Two Wisconsins: "Danewaukee" vs. "Rest of Wisconsin"

A post-2008 Electoral Tale of Two Wisconsins: "Danewaukee" vs. "Rest of Wisconsin"

Introduction: I like to summarize Wisconsin's post-2008 electoral politics as "Madison and Milwaukee vs. everywhere else," a description I know is simultaneously very simplistic and truthful to an extent. In 2008, Barack Obama won a 13% victory in the Badger State, and as we will see below, performed well in both Dane and Milwaukee counties ("Danewaukee") and the rest of Wisconsin ("RoW"). Not within two years, Wisconsin swung back hard, with the Governor's mansion, two House seats and Senator Russ Feingold's seat turning red ("Wisconsin"). Since then, as we will see below, the two regions have electorally diverged, with every winning Republican doing so off of "RoW" and every Democrat off of "Danewaukee." Considering Wisconsin's recent electoral politics, I find this personal theory to be worthy of quantitative exploration to determine the extent to which it is true. 

Table 1: Significant 2008-2020 Wisconsin Election Results

Note: The 2012 Gubernatorial election was an off-cycle recall election in June 2012. During this time period explored above, "Danewaukee" generally casted around 25% of the statewide vote while "Rest of Wisconsin" casted around 75%, give or take a percent or two. 

Data Source: "More Wisconsin." 

Significant 2008-2020 Elections:

• 2010 Gubernatorial: Going into the 2010 Gubernatorial Election, incumbent Jim Doyle (D) decided not to run for another term due to his declining popularity ("Republican Walker"). Ex-U.S. Representative and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) received the Democratic nomination, while the Republican nominee was State Legislator Scott Walker (R) (Hiskes). Walker won his first term by over 5%, concurrent with the Republican Senate victory (below) (Rocha). One of the most significant issues in this election was Governor Doyle's aspirations to extend the Chicago-Milwaukee Hiawatha Service Amtrak service to Madison, which included the purchase of two new trainsets specifically for the extension. Walker was heavily opposed to the extension, (among other things) arguing it would be fiscally unsustainable and that it would benefit only Madison and Milwaukee at the expense of the rest of the state (Bowman and Johnson). Gov. Doyle ended up halting the project and returning Federal funding right after Walker's victory (Sandler). The reason I wanted to mention this specific campaign issue is because Governor Walker's tactic of promising that "RoW" would take back power from "Danewaukee" would be echoed by Trump 6 years later, who rode on non-urban resentment as part of his shocking win of Wisconsin (Johnson, "Kevin"). Furthermore, it is notable that post-2008, no major Democratic nominee has won "RoW," reflecting the region's massive shift from Barack Obama's showing in 2008, and the increasingly-sharp electoral differences between the two regions explored here that started with the 2010 elections. 
• 2010 Senate: Just two years after Barack Obama (D) had won Wisconsin by almost 15% as part of his historic victory, Wisconsin was about to swing all the way around in a dramatic fashion. Progressive Senator Russ Feingold (D) ran for a third term, and faced a difficult race against businessman Ron Johnson (R). His 2010 struggles were considered surprising because Feingold had previously beat back tough challenges, was well-liked, and was in a state that hadn't voted Republican for President in a while (Woodruff). Senator Feingold eventually lost by 4% to Johnson as the Tea Party wave washed over the country and Wisconsin ("Wisconsin"). 
• 2012 Gubernatorial Recall: Liberal backlash to Governor Walker (R) was quick to emerge after his 2010 election victory. In particular, successful Republican legislation to weaken public labor bargaining galvanized a recall effort against the Governor that made it onto the ballot in June 2012. Despite intense energy behind the pro-recall effort, Governor Walker survived the recall election against Barrett, with RoW backing him heavily (Table 1). Gov. Walker thus became the first Governor in American history to survive a recall election, and only the third to face one at the time (Peralta). In this year, California will have a gubernatorial recall election in September (Blood and Ronayne), while Alaska has an ongoing (as of July 2021) gubernatorial recall movement that could result in a recall election. "RoW" gave a significant margin to Walker, as he won the region by 20%, something that not even Trump pulled off in 2016 or 2020 despite his extensive appeal there. 
• 2012 Senate: In 2012, incumbent Senator Herb Kohl (D), who previously co-founded and led the Kohl's department store chain, decided to retire after a multi-decade political career (Gunn). U.S. Representative Tammy Baldwin (D) won the seat against ex-Governor Tommy Thompson (R), thus becoming the first Senator identifying as homosexual (Goldenberg). Simultaneously, Wisconsin's blue hue further returned as Barack Obama (D) won the state by over 6% (Table 1). 
• 2014 Gubernatorial: Having survived the recall election, Governor Walker ran for a full second term in 2014. His challenger was Mary Burke (D), a former businesswoman for the Trek bicycle company and a State Commerce Secretary under ex-Governor Doyle (D) (o'Brien). Governor Walker easily netted a second term, making it the third election in four years he had won. Burke's attempt to defeat the incumbent Governor was complicated by low turnout among Democratic base groups, Walker's good performance among independent voters, and a dismal Democratic performance in Dane and Milwaukee Counties (Rocha). 
• 2016 Senate: Going into the 2016 Senate elections, Senate Republicans were thought to be in a tough situation, with them holding 7 seats in states won by President Barack Obama (D) as part of his 2012 re-election, several in (at the time) fairly blue states. Among these was Senator Ron Johnson (R), who was considered the most vulnerable due to his conservative voting record in a then light-blue (presidential-wise) state (Kondik). Ex-Senator Russ Feingold (D) ran in a rematch to reclaim his former seat, and was considered a favorite for most of the cycle (Meyer). In the closing days, the Senate race saw tightening polls and an influx of outside spending to support the candidates (Meyer; Rahman). On Election Day, Senator Johnson pulled off a shocking upset in parallel with Donald Trump (R)'s unexpected win of the Badger State ("Trump Wins").  Had Feingold won in 2016, he would have been the first Senator to lose to a challenger and make a comeback through unseating the same challenger since the 1930s (Bauer, "Republican"). 
• 2018 Gubernatorial: With a Blue Wave year hitting the country, state and national Democrats salivated at the possibly of finally being able to unseat Governor Walker after two unsuccessful attempts. In the time since the last gubernatorial election, Walker had run for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination before dropping out early in the nomination cycle, despite him being seen as a frontrunner just months before (Kondik et al.). State Education Chief Tony Evers (D) gained the Democratic nomination and ended up winning narrowly against Walker, although he came into office facing a Republican-controlled legislature (Bauer, "Wisconsin Democrats"). 
• 2018 Senate: Senator Baldwin (D) ran for another term in 2018, and ended up winning by double-digits. Her opponent was State Legislator Leah Vukmir (R), who had won the nomination against businessman Kevin Nicholson (R), an ex-Democrat who previously was previously President of the College Democrats of America (Glauber; Johnson, "Kevin"). 

Analysis and Implications: As noted in the above section, it stands out that since 2008, no Democratic nominee for U.S. President, U.S. Senate, or Wisconsin Governor has won "RoW," including Senator Baldwin (D), whose 2018 double-digit win was on the back of "Danewaukee" alone. To show the extent of this divergence, even Obama 2012's and Biden's victories in Wisconsin relied alone on a solid margin in "Danewaukee." With the exception of Senator Baldwin's 2018 re-election, every Republican candidate since 2008 has netted double-digit margins from "RoW," thus requiring a significant margin out of "Danewaukee" for a Democrat to win. In particular, the massive jump in RoW's Republican net margin between the 2012 and 2016 Presidential elections stands out, as does the similar % margin in 2020. These results seem to indicate that the Republican Party's Trump-era electoral shift has permanently made the region more red in presidential year elections in addition to midterm elections, thus making the state more competitive than it used to be. This is despite now-President Joe Biden (D) further increasing the "Danewaukee" net vote margin compared to both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama's performances, yet losing and narrowly winning Wisconsin due to the double-digit Republican margins in "RoW." 

Beside Trump, the results presented on Table 1 also reflect on a key reason behind the failure of Democratic candidates to win against Governor Walker (R) until 2018, which is the relatively lower turnout in Wisconsin's gubernatorial elections, which are held in midterm years. The lower-than-presidential margins in "Danewaukee" reflect this during each of Walker's campaigns. Furthermore, Walker's obvious strength in "RoW" complicated such efforts, as was his relatively good performance in "Danewaukee" for a Republican. Even in the 2012 recall election, when turnout was relatively high, Walker survived due to his massive raw vote margin in "RoW," while the Democratic net margin increase in "Danewaukee" was nowhere close to even match the former's pro-Republican shift, thus showing Walker's intense support from that region. 

While I am not into the business of creating complex quantitative models to predict what percentages a candidate would need to win a race, some clues stand out in the table above. In particular, it seems as though any Republican hoping to win the state needs to net at least a 14% winning margin in "RoW," with the threshold being lower in low-turnout midterms (such as 2010 or 2014). This can also be achieved with a better-than-normal performance in "Danewaukee," especially among independent voters (something Scott Walker achieved in his three successful elections). Furthermore, with the massive pro-Republican shift in "RoW," a 40%+ winning margin in "Danewaukee" is paramount for a Democrat to narrowly win, as is reducing the Republican margin in "RoW" as much as possible. Remember back to the note under Table 1 that "Danewaukee" and "RoW" accounted for around 25% and 75% of the statewide vote in the time period studied, which further emphasizes the importance of "RoW" for an aspiring statewide candidate of either party. 

Conclusion: Even though this blog's analysis of Wisconsin's election results started with 2008, it is noteworthy that Dane and Milwaukee have been voting Democratic in Presidential elections starting in 1960, longer than other urban Midwestern counties such as Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Marion (Indianapolis), Hennepin (Minneapolis), and even Chicago's Cook (Sullivan). Thus, it could be argued that while the electoral differences between the two regions predate the rise of Scott Walker (R), his campaign rhetoric and policies heavily exasperated the divide between the two regions, which is further strengthened by Trump's appeal in "RoW." 

Based on the election results analyzed above plus the above paragraph, another way to summarize post-2008 Wisconsin politics is "the winner's electoral performance in the RoW matters significantly," especially since "Danewaukee" has continuously cast only 25% of the statewide vote despite becoming more Democratic, while "RoW" has trended red since 2008, only snapping back in 2012 and somewhat in 2018. This will likely continue to hold true for the foreseeable future, thus keeping Wisconsin in the group of core swing states. With Senate and Gubernatorial elections taking place in Wisconsin next year, the statewide winners of both are likely to do so off the back of either, but not both regions.

Works Cited: 

Bauer, Scott. "Republican Johnson defeats Feingold in rematch of 2010 race." StarTribune, 8 Nov. 2016, www.startribune.com/johnson-feingold-in-rematch-of-2010-wisconsin-senate-race/400358961/. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

---. "Wisconsin Democrats rejoice: Scott Walker is finally gone." Associated Press, 7 Nov. 2018, apnews.com/article/donald-trump-ap-top-news-wisconsin-wi-state-wire-scott-walker-9b28173f43b44cfa9ba64438d002f075. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

Blood, Michael, and Kathleen Ronayne. "Who’s in? California recall candidate list draws confusion." Associated Press, 18 Jul. 2021, apnews.com/article/entertainment-health-government-and-politics-elections-california-c5eedc7f144b2e7baa5745b800e67709. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

Bowden, Bridget, and Shawn Johnson. "As Political Winds Change, Walker Uses Train to Seize the Moment." Wisconsin Public Radio, 23 Oct. 2019, www.wpr.org/derailed/political-winds-change-walker-uses-train-seize-moment. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

Glauber, Bill. "Six takeaways from Tammy Baldwin's victory in Wisconsin U.S. Senate race." Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 7 Nov. 2018, www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/six-takeaways-tammy-baldwins-victory-wisconsin-u-s-senate-race/1909528002/. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021.

Goldenberg, Suzanne. "Tammy Baldwin wins in Wisconsin as voters elect first openly gay senator." The Guardian, 7 Nov. 2012, www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/wisconsin-senate-results-tammy-baldwin. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

Gunn, Erik. "Retiring Sen. Herb Kohl got a lot done while shunning the spotlight." Isthmus, 4 Oct. 2012, isthmus.com/news/news/retiring-sen-herb-kohl-got-a-lot-done-while-shunning-the-spotlight/. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

Hiskes, Jonathan. "Wisconsin governor's race: Barrett vs. Walker." Grist, 11 Oct. 2010, grist.org/article/2010-wisconsin-governors-race/. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

Johnson, Shawn. "Kevin Nicholson Stresses Military Service In GOP Bid For US Senate." Wisconsin Public Radio, 2 Aug. 2018, www.wpr.org/kevin-nicholson-stresses-military-service-gop-bid-us-senate. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

---. "Trump's Wisconsin Win Leaves Many Wondering What Happened." Wisconsin Public Radio, 10 Nov. 2016, www.wpr.org/trumps-wisconsin-win-leaves-many-wondering-what-happened. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

Kondik, Kyle. "Senate 2016: The Republicans’ 2012 Homework." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 11 Dec. 2014, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2016-the-republicans-2012-homework/. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

Kondik, Kyle, Larry Sabato, and Geoffrey Skelley. "Republicans 2016: Two down, 14 to go." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 24 Sept. 2015, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicans-2016-two-down-14-to-go/. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

Meyer, Theodoric. "Johnson upsets Feingold to keep Wisconsin Senate seat." Politico, 9 Nov. 2016, www.politico.com/story/2016/11/johnson-feingold-wisconsin-senate-race-2016-election-results-231027. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

"More Wisconsin Elections Results." Wisconsin Elections Administration, elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/results-all. Accessed 12 Jul. 2021.

o'Brien, Brendan. "Poll shows race for Wisconsin governor is a dead heat." Reuters, 21 May 2014, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-wisconsin/poll-shows-race-for-wisconsin-governor-is-a-dead-heat-idUSBREA4K14P20140521. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

Peralta, Eyder. "Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker Survives Recall." National Public Radio, 5 Jun. 2012, www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/06/05/154384654/live-blog-wisconsin-decides-governors-fate-in-recall-vote. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

Rahman, Rema. "Republican Sen. Ron Johnson Holds On to Wisconsin Senate Seat." The Hill, 8 Nov. 2016, www.rollcall.com/2016/11/08/republican-sen-ron-johnson-holds-on-to-wisconsin-senate-seat/. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

"Republican Walker Defeats Barrett to Win Wisconsin Governor's Race." Fox News, 2 Nov. 2010, www.foxnews.com/politics/republican-walker-defeats-barrett-to-win-wisconsin-governors-race. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021.

Rocha, Polo. "How Scott Walker won his third governor’s race in four years." The Badger Herald, 6 Nov. 2014, badgerherald.com/news/2014/11/06/how-scott-walker-won-his-third-governors-race-in-four-years/. Accessed 16 Jul. 2021. 

Sandler, Larry. "Doyle says canceling rail line will cost $100 million, cut 400 jobs." Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Archive, 8 Nov. 2010, archive.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/106914208.html/. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

Sullivan, Robert David. "How the red and blue map evolved over the past century." America: The Jesuit Review, 29 Jun. 2016, www.americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/how-red-and-blue-map-evolved-over-past-century. Accessed 16 Jul. 2021.  

"Trump Wins Wisconsin, State Senate and Assembly Republicans Maintain Majorities." The Hamilton Consulting Group, L.L.C, 9 Nov. 2016, www.hamilton-consulting.com/2016-election-results-2/. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021. 

"Wisconsin - Election Results 2010." The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/elections/2010/results/wisconsin.html. Accessed 16 Jul. 2021. 

Woodruff, Judy. "In Wisconsin, Feingold in Tough Senate Battle With ‘Outsider’ Businessman." PBS NewsHour, 5 Oct. 2010, www.pbs.org/newshour/show/in-wisconsin-feingold-in-tough-senate-battle-with-outsider-businessman. Accessed 18 Jul. 2021.