August Updates on this Year's Congressional and Gubernatorial Elections

August Updates on this Year's Congressional and Gubernatorial Elections

Introduction: My first regular blog post of the year was a rundown of Gubernatorial and special Congressional elections scheduled for 2021, which I subsequently updated in March to reflect several new additions. With the exception of FL-20's special election that will occur early next year, all of this year's gubernatorial and special Congressional races have held their primaries. Thus, today will be a quick update on the status of elections held after the last special Congressional elections post, and ones that will be held later in the year.

Special Congressional:

• NM-1 (June 1st): Democratic concern over this House race in a fairly-blue but historically less-so seat subsided on election night when Democratic nominee Melanie Stansbury (D) netted a solid victory, winning over 60% of the vote (Bradner et al.). 
• TX-6 Runoff (July 27th): In the May first-round election, Democrats were dismayed at failing to secure a spot in this election's "top two" runoff. Instead, Republicans Susan Wright (the widow of Rep. Ron Wright, who died of COVID in February) and state representative Jake Ellzey (R) competed in the July runoff. Despite Donald Trump's endorsement of Wright, Ellzey won the runoff narrowly, which is speculated to be a result of his campaign messaging and views on public education attracting Democratic voters (Svitek).
• OH-11 Special (primaries on August 3rd, general on November 2nd): The Democratic Primary in this special election was closely-followed as a barometer of the ongoing progressive surge in solidly-blue districts. Previously thought to be a front-runner, high-profile progressive Nina Turner (D) lost to Cuyahoga County Councilmember Shontel Brown (D), who pitched a more moderate tone and agenda (Richardson). This was despite Turner leading significantly in both fundraising and polling going into August (Richardson). Of note is that in the closing stage of the campaign, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D), a prominent Black Democrat, came out in full support of Brown, along with the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) (Richardson). This very same factor was paramount in securing Joe Biden's critical South Carolina primary victory last year that eventually carried him into the presidency, as Clyburn's endorsement of Biden helped solidify the Black vote around the eventual nominee (Zurcher). Another important factor that may have helped Brown was her explicit support for President Biden (D) and other prominent Democratic leaders, while Turner has been hostile to the Democratic establishment, especially after the 2016 and 2020 Presidential Primaries (Gomez, "Shontel"; Wiersema and Yin).
• OH-15 Special (primaries on August 3rd, general on November 2nd): As stated previously, OH-15's special election is unlikely to be very competitive despite being in a moderately-red district (Coleman and Kondik). The Republican nominee is former coal executive Mike Carey, while the Democratic Party nominated State Representative Allison Russo (Gomez, "Trump").

Gubernatorial:

• California Recall (September 14th): Right after my most recent post on the California Gubernatorial recall, the California recall started to gain significant attention due to tightening polls on Question 1 (Whether to recall the Governor) and Democratic concern that Governor Newsom may be in danger. In line with this, the state party and Newsom have been encouraging voters to not vote on the second question (replacement Governor), fearing that it could lead to more "Yes" votes on Question 1 and show party disunity (Blake). The leading candidate for Question 2 is conservative-libertarian talk show host Larry Elder (R), who went from entering last-minute to leading the horse race, even above established Republicans such as ex-San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R) and ex-U.S. Representative Doug Ose (R). Elder's controversial positions on racial and cultural issues has led to comparisons between him and Donald Trump, especially considering his status as a political outsider against an intrenched incumbent (Singh). Meanwhile, the only "notable" Democrat in the race is YouTuber Kevin Paffrath. As stated previously, no top-tier Democrats jumped-in, which was probably the result of the party's wish to avoid showing disunity in the recall (Blake). 
• New Jersey (primaries on June 8th, general on November 2nd): Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy (D) won his primary without opposition, and will face ex-State Representative Jack Ciattarelli, a relative moderate (Steele). Recent polling shows Murphy's once-higher statewide approval rating to be slipping slightly, although popular opinion of his performance remains higher ("Eagleton"). If Governor Murphy wins a second term, he will be the first Democrat to achieve that feat since the 1970s (Steele).
• Virginia (November 2nd): On the Democratic side, former Governor Terry McAuliffe made it out of a competitive primary to the nomination, hoping to re-win his former position. His Republican opponent ended up being none of the ones listed on the January post, but was instead venture capitalist Glenn Youngkin, who was nominated through a convention instead of a primary (Rankin). Recent polls have shown this race to be close, and the race is predicted to be a very competitive and expensive one that could reveal voter attitudes in the lead-up to next year's midterms (Kilgore; Leshan).

Works Cited: 

Blake, Aaron. "Democrats confront a nightmare scenario in California recall." The Washington Post, 20 Aug. 2021, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/08/20/democrats-nightmare-recall-newsom/. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Bradner, Eric, Ethan Cohen, and Rachel Janfaza. "Democrat Melanie Stansbury wins New Mexico special election for US House seat, CNN projects." CNN, 2 Jun. 2021, www.cnn.com/2021/06/01/politics/new-mexico-1st-district-special-election/index.html. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021. 

Coleman, J. Miles, and Kyle Kondik. "Notes on the State of Politics: April 20, 2021." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 20 Apr. 2021, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-4-20-21/. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

"Eagleton Poll: Murphy Has 55% Approval Rating; Favorable Rating Dips Below 50%." InsiderNJ, 7 Jun. 2021, www.insidernj.com/eagleton-poll-murphy-55-approval-rating-favorable-rating-dips-50/. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Gomez, Henry J. "Shontel Brown, who stuck close to Biden, wins Democratic primary for House seat in Ohio, AP projects." NBC News, 3 Aug. 2021, www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/shontel-brown-defeats-nina-turner-ohio-11th-congressional-district-n1275878. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

---. "Trump-backed Mike Carey wins GOP special election primary in Ohio's 15th District, AP projects." NBC News, 3 Aug. 2021, www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/trump-backed-candidate-mike-carey-wins-special-election-primary-ohio-n1275875. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Kilgore, Ed. "Virginia Is in for a Close, Expensive Governor’s Race." Intelligencer, The New Yorker, 15 Jun. 2021, nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/06/virginia-likely-to-have-close-expensive-governors-race.html. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Leshan, Bruce. "McAuliffe pushes hospital vaccine mandate, Youngkin campaigns for gas tax holiday on Northern Virginia visits." WUSA9, 11 Aug. 2021, www.wusa9.com/article/features/producers-picks/virginia-governor-candidates-mcauliffe-and-youngkin-slam-each-other-over-taxes-and-vaccine-mandates/65-4847901a-f17b-443a-9369-b0148ea4dc24. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Rankin, Sarah. "McAuliffe Wins Democratic Nomination for Virginia Governor." NBC Washington, 8 Jun. 2021, www.nbcwashington.com/news/politics/virginia-democratic-primary-governor-results/2694648/. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Richardson, Seth A. "Shontel Brown wins Democratic primary in 11th Congressional District special election." Cleveland.com, 3 Aug. 2020, www.cleveland.com/open/2021/08/shontel-brown-leading-democratic-primary-in-11th-congressional-district-special-election.html. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Singh, Maanvi. "‘A complete shock’: the rightwing contrarian leading the California recall race." The Guardian, 22 Aug. 2021, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/22/larry-elder-california-governor-recall-election. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Steele, Allison. "Jack Ciattarelli has won the Republican primary to face New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy." The Philadelphia Inquirer, 9 Jun. 2021, www.inquirer.com/politics/election/new-jersey-primary-election-results-jack-ciattarelli-phil-murphy-20210608.html. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Svitek, Patrick. "How Republican Jake Ellzey's bipartisan appeal, positive campaign helped him upset Trump's pick for Congress." Texas Tribune, 29 Jul. 2021, www.texastribune.org/2021/07/29/jake-ellzey-donald-trump-texas-6-congressional-seat/. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Wiersema, Alisa, and Tina Yin. "Democrats face off in heated battle over Ohio’s 11th District primary." ABC News, 3 Aug. 2021, abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrats-face-off-heated-battle-ohios-11th-district/story?id=79217958. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

Zurcher, Anthony. "South Carolina primary: Who are the winners and losers?" British Broadcasting Corporation, 1 Mar. 2020, www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51678640. Accessed 22 Aug. 2021.

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record