Ten Post-2010: Perennial Competitive Congressional Districts

Ten Post-2010: Perennial Competitive Congressional Districts

Introduction: With 2020's Federal elections receding in the rearview mirror, and Congressional redistricting around the corner, a full slate of election results from the post-2012 redistricting period (although a few states had to redistrict mid-decade) allows for understanding of Congressional election trends in the last decade. During each cycle, party institutions determine which House seats on the other side to be targeted, which is often determined by past Congressional and Presidential results in each district (Akin; Kendall). While the exact slates of competitive districts often vary depending on each cycle's political climate, there have been some districts that have remained consistently competitive since the post-2012 redistricting. Today's post will discuss 10 of these districts and their 2012-2020 electoral history. 

Methodology: While I chose not to solely use quantitative election results alone to determine which districts were included here, I tried to choose districts that generally met at least 3 of the 4 conditions listed below: 

• House race margin was under 10% for at 4 or 5 of the 5 elections post-2010 (2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020).
• Was extensively-targeted by the opposing party in at least 3 of the 5 elections, and/or was considered by major election predictors (e.g. Sabato's Crystal Ball, FiveThirtyEight, CNN, etc.) to be less than "Safe" or "Solid" for the incumbent or party. 
• Flipped parties at least once from 2012-2020, and preferably more than once. 
• Election results generally moved with the "electoral tide" per cycle. Note that of the Congressional elections mentioned above, 2012 was a relatively neutral year, 2014 was a Republican wave, 2016 was a Republican-leaning year, 2018 was a Democratic wave, and 2020 was a neutral-Republican-leaning year. Also keep the corresponding presidential results in mind: Obama's solid re-election in 2012, Trump's narrow upset victory in 2016, and Biden's narrow victory in 2020. 

A Look at the 10 Chosen House Districts: 

Table 1: District Election Results, 2012-2020

Notes: Each colored box refers to the winning party per election, while the number refers to the percent margin between the winner and the second-place candidate. All races featured here had either a Democrat or Republican in the top two positions, with the exception of CA-25's 2014 election, which had two Republicans running in the general election. Election data sources are listed near the bottom of this page, just above "Works Cited." 

     Visual 1: AZ-1 Map

     Image Source: "File:Arizona US Congressional District 1 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Arizona_US_Congressional_District_1_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

     

     AZ-1 (Flagstaff, Sedona, Navajo Nation, Hopi Nation): While this is the only district on this list that was won by the same party in all five post-2010 House elections, it is included because of its perennial competitiveness. Despite Mitt Romney winning the district in 2012, ex-Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) made a successful comeback that year, followed-up by surviving the 2014 "Red Surge" despite Republican attempts to unseat her (Mutnick). In 2016, Kirkpatrick decided to take on Sen. John McCain (R), leaving Sedona Councilmember Tom o'Halleran (D) to win the seat by around 7% in 2016 and 2018 (Hansen, "Democrat Tom"). Kirkpatrick eventually made another Congressional comeback in 2018, this time in neighboring AZ-2; she recently announced that she would retire for good in 2022 (Mutnick). Despite Biden finally flipping the district blue in 2020, Rep. o'Halleran came out with a narrow 3% victory, further cementing the district's competitive nature (Hansen, "Rep. Tom"). 

     Visual 2: CA-25 Map

     Image Source: "File:California US Congressional District 25 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, 21 Mar. 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:California_US_Congressional_District_25_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

     CA-25 (Northern LA suburbs, Palmdale): Encompassing a rapidly-growing suburban area north of Los Angeles, and containing Six Flags Magic Mountain (home to the most roller coasters for any theme park worldwide), CA-25's electoral history is unique due to having 6 elections this decade (5 regular and a special). Longtime incumbent Rep. Buck McKeon (R), then the House Armed Forces Committee chair, won another term in 2012 and decided to make it his last (Felde). The following election saw two Republicans make it out of the "Jungle Primary" to the general election, with Steve Knight (R) winning against Ted Strickland (R). Rep. Knight survived 2016 despite extensive Democratic targeting, even as Hillary Clinton (D) won CA-25 by 7% (Bowman, "Rep. Steve"). In a dramatic reversal two years later, Katie Hill (D) unseated Knight by a similar margin the latter had won by in 2016, and quickly became a rising star (Blood; Modesti). However, Rep. Hill was not even a year into her first term when a major scandal emerged regarding alleged affairs with an office staffer and a campaign official (Blood). After Rep. Hill resigned in late 2019, a special election was called for and held in March 2020, with a runoff planned for May if necessary (Denkmann). Democrat Christy Smith and Republican Mike Garcia both made it to the runoff out of a crowded primary field (which also included Knight and progressive journalist Cenk Uyger) for both the special and regular elections (Zhou). In the low-turnout May runoff, Garcia won the district and prepared to rematch Smith in November for a full-term (Kilgore). When November came, Garcia ended up narrowly winning a full term after several weeks of contentious ballot counting (Kisken). Along with IA-2 and NY-22, CA-25 ended up being won by a Republican with less than a 500 vote margin, making it one of the closest House election results that year ("House Election Results 2020"). 

     Visual 3: Map of FL-26

     Note: The image above shows the pre-2016 district lines. The post-2016 redistricted version of the district is relatively similar, but I was not able to find a copyright-free map or one only requiring attribution to use. 

     Image Source: "File:Florida US Congressional District 26 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, 15 Mar. 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Florida_US_Congressional_District_26_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

     FL-26 (Homestead, Florida Keys): Being one of three majority-Cuban-American districts in South Florida (Singer, "Trump's gains"), FL-26 is the only House district on this list that was won by Obama and Clinton by double-digits while being more competitive downballot. In 2012, Joe Garcia (D) won the seat, only to lose narrowly to Carlos Curbelo (R) in the 2014 red wave. Garcia's attempt for a comeback failed in 2016, with the relatively-moderate Curbelo winning by double-digits (Buzzacco-Foerster; Flom). However, Curbelo's luck ran out in 2018, as he narrowly lost re-election to Debbie Muscarsel-Powell (D), despite heavily overperforming Trump's 2016 margin in the district, as seen on Table 1 above ("Carlos"). Yet, Rep. Muscarsel-Powell's luck was also short-lived, as she was one of the main Democrats targeted by the GOP in 2020. That Fall, Democratic concern began to grow over her 2020 election prospects due to suggestions of higher Cuban-American support for Trump relative to 2016 (Higgins). Despite Democratic optimism that she would survive, Rep. Muscarsel-Powell narrowly lost to Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez (R) as Trump rolled to a second victory in Florida largely off the back of intense energy among Cuban-American voters in Miami-Dade (Martinez). 

     Visual 4: Map of IA-1

     Image Source: "File:Iowa US Congressional District 1 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Iowa_US_Congressional_District_1_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

     IA-1 (NE Iowa; Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, Waterloo): While Iowa has seen a significant pro-Republican trend in the Trump era, it also still seems to have a propensity to swing depending on the tide. Northeast Iowa's IA-1 almost perfectly summarizes the state's recent electoral history, having voted for Barack Obama by double-digits before being won by Trump twice (DiGiacomo) (Table 1). The decade started off with incumbent Rep. Bruce Braley (D) holding the seat, who vacated it to (unsuccessfully) run for Iowa's Class 2 Senate seat in 2014 ("AP: Rod Blum"). Rod Blum won the seat that year, and fended off Democratic attempts to unseat him in 2016 (Crippes), likely being buoyed by Trump's unexpectly good showing in Iowa. Around this time, he allegedly founded a business while serving in Congress, and neglected to properly report it, which caused him to be investigated by the House Ethics Committee (Foley). During the 2018 cycle, Blum was one of the most high-profile Democratic targets due to this scandal and the Democratic recruit, 28-year old state legislator Abby Finkenauer (D) (DiGiacomo; Foley). On Election Day, IA-1 seemed to continue its destiny of "going with the national tide" as Finkenauer (D) won the seat over Blum (DiGiacomo). Despite being favored for a second term, Rep. Finkenauer lost to local TV reporter Ashley Hinson (R) as Trump overperformed expectations in the Buckeye State (and nationally) once again (Miller; Pearce).  

     Visual 5: Map of NE-2

     Image Source: "File:Nebraska US Congressional District 2 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nebraska_US_Congressional_District_2_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

     NE-2 (Omaha and suburbs): To some extent, NE-2 is almost a reverse of NH-1 and NV-4 (both discussed below). In 2012, incumbent Rep. Lee Terry (R) won a close victory in the district that is more-watched during presidential elections (as Nebraska allocates its 3 non-statewide votes by the winner of each of its 3 Congressional districts) (Livingston). Fast-forward a year, and Rep. Terry got into hot water after making comments deemed insensitive and unemphatic towards those affected by the 2013 government shutdown, although he soon apologized (Reilly). In an exception to the 2014 Red Wave, Terry narrowly lost to Democrat Brad Ashford (D), becoming one of two Republican House incumbents to lose that year. The other was FL-2 Rep. Steve Southerland (R), who also faced a good Democratic challenger and also made a major mistake by attending a fundraiser restricted only to men (Etters). However, Rep. Ashford's dream of a second term came to an end in 2016, as he narrowly lost to Don Bacon (R), despite Democratic hopes that Clinton would win NE-2's electoral vote (which she did not) ("Bacon"). National Democrats extensively targeted the district in both 2018 and 2020, which saw progressive Kara Eastman (D) win both primaries over Ashford and Ashford's wife Ann, respectively. As noted previously on this blog, Eastman's 2018 campaign nearly won the seat despite being abandoned by Democratic Party campaign institutions under the belief she was too liberal for the district (Gronewold). By contrast, her 2020 campaign tried to reach to a broader audience, although some intra-party antagonism continued, with Ann Ashford refusing to endorse her (Jordan), and prominent progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) blasting Democratic campaign institutions for not showing enough support for her (Panetta). Yet, national Democratic-aligned institutions extensively supported Eastman's 2020 campaign, which Rep. Bacon argued was proof that she was ideologically out-of-touch with the district (Axelrod, "Bacon"; Panetta). Despite this energy at her back, Eastman failed to win the district, losing to Bacon by 4% even as Joe Biden won back the district's electoral vote (Matherny). 

     Visual 6: Map of NV-3

     Image Source: "File:Nevada US Congressional District 3 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nevada_US_Congressional_District_3_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

     NV-3 (Southern Las Vegas suburbs, Henderson, Boulder City): NV-3 did not start the decade as competitive, but moved that way after incumbent Rep. Joe Heck (R) decided to (unsuccessfully) vie for then-Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid (who was retiring)'s Senate seat in 2016 ("Nevada Senate"). That year, Jacky Rosen (D) narrowly flipped NV-3 blue in an expensive and close House race against perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian (R) (Rindels, "Joy"). Before even reaching year 1 of her time in the House, Rep. Rosen proceeded to seek Nevada's other Senate seat in 2018, which she eventually won (Dixon). After her departure, she was replaced by now-Rep. Susie Lee (D), who was also running against Tarkanian (Price). Simultaneously with Biden narrowly flipped the district blue after it voted for Obama and Trump in 2012 and 2016, respectively, Rep. Lee won a narrow victory for a second term (Emerson; Lochhead). 

    Visual 7: Map of NV-4

    Image Source: "File:Nevada US Congressional District 4 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nevada_US_Congressional_District_4_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

     NV-4 (Northern Las Vegas suburbs, Ely, Tonopah): Located just north of NV-3, and containing Area 51 (subject of the popular 2019 joke "raid"), NV-4's split suburban/rural geography has witnessed close results in almost every election since 2012. That year, the district was won by Steven Horsford (D), who had been Nevada's first Black State Senate Leader, and faced none other than Danny Tarkanian (R) (Rindels, "Former"). Two years later, Rep. Horsford was unseated by Crescent Hardy (R) in an upset mainly caused by significantly diminished margins in Las Vegas's portion of the district (Phillips). Hardy also served one term before losing to Democratic rising star Ruben Kihuen (D) two years later. However, Rep. Kihuen's ambitions to build a Congressional career were halted when he faced accusations of sexual harassment a year later, which forced him to not run in 2018 (Snyder). A year later, Hardy and Horsford won their respective primaries to rematch, and Horsford claimed a second victory by nearly-double digits that November (Axelrod, "Rep. Steven"). He followed-this up with a narrow victory in 2020, thus finally netting a second consecutive term (Emerson). 

     Visual 8: Map of NH-1

     Image Source: "File:New Hampshire US Congressional District 1 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:New_Hampshire_US_Congressional_District_1_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

     NH-1 (Dover, Manchester, Portsmouth): Of the districts profiled here, NH-1 arguably best fits the textbook definition of "perennial competitive Congressional district," even when considering the similar pre-2012 version. Since 2006, the district has flipped parties a total of five times (2006, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016), with the last four featuring Democrat Carol Shea-Porter and Republican Frank Guinta facing off each time. After her third non-consecutive victory in 2016, Rep. Shea-Porter decided to quit Congress in 2018 (Carosa and DiStato). Manchester Executive Chris Pappas (D) won by 8% in 2018 and followed-up with a narrower 5% in 2020, who is projected to be targeted in redistricting by state Republicans (Steinhauser). 

     Visual 9: Map of TX-23

     Image Source: "File:Texas US Congressional District 23 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, 28 Mar. 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Texas_US_Congressional_District_23_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

     TX-23 (western RGV, suburban San Antonio): No discussion of perennial competitive House districts is complete without mentioning majority-Latino TX-23, the only Congressional district that voted Romney-Clinton-Biden in the last three presidential elections (Singer, "Texas"). It is the only district mentioned here whose Congressional result was under 5% for the last four elections, and for 2 consecutive elections, under 1% (Table 1). After Republicans flipped the (similar) pre-2010 version with Quico Canseco (R) in 2010, local state representative Pete Gallego (D) took it back in 2012, despite Romney narrowly winning the district (Aaronson and Hamilton). Like several other Democrats on this list who won in 2012, the red wave of 2014 doomed Rep. Gallego in his contest with ex-CIA Officer and moderate Republican Will Hurd. In 2016, Rep. Hurd followed up 2014 with a narrow reelection victory in 2016 despite extensive Democratic attempts to unseat him (Livingston and Luiz). During his tenure, Rep. Hurd solidified his reputation as a moderate Republican, which included frequent criticism of President Trump's policies and statements, especially related to immigration. However, this didn't prevent him from pulling off a third consecutive hair-thin victory against Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who did not concede until all provisional and military ballots were counted, and who was accidently prematurely projected the winner by multiple outlets (Barragán). Sensing 2020 to potentially be another difficult year, Hurd chose not to run again, with that year's nominated Republican being ex-Army Officer Tony Gonzalez. Despite Ortiz Jones running again and being favored to win, she lost to Gonzalez in a major upset, who overperformed Trump in the district (Narea). 

     Visual 10: Map of UT-4

     Image Source: "File:Utah US Congressional District 4 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Utah_US_Congressional_District_4_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

     UT-4 (Salt Lake City suburbs): At first glance, it seems surprising that UT-4 has been a competitive Congressional district for most of the last decade. As shown on Table 1, this largely-suburban district voted heavily in favor of Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, and voted heavily for Trump both times despite the district swinging left. Yet, even as Mitt Romney won the state identifying with his religion, UT-4 narrowly re-elected Rep. Jim Matheson (D), member of a famed Utah political family (Camia). Matheson retired in 2014, and despite the district's heavy Republican lean, Republican Mia Love (who ran in 2012 against Matheson) only won the district narrowly (Gildea). Rep. Love secured another term in 2016 before narrowly losing in 2018 to Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams (D) (Davidson). However, Rep. McAdams failed to obtain a second term in 2020, being narrowly defeated by ex-NFL player Burgess Owens (R). Other than UT-4's recent electoral history, what makes this district notable is that it has featured a Black Republican nominee in each election since the 2012 redistricting. Mia Love was the first Haitian-American elected to the House, the first female Black Republican, and the first Black House member from Utah. Rep. Owens is the second to achieve the latter (Roche).  

Runner-Ups: In addition to the ten above, I considered the following districts that featured close or competitive results multiple times post-2010, but excluded because I wanted to keep the total number at 10, and because I felt didn't fit as well with the established criteria. In particular, some of these districts started off as competitive or not, but receded to the opposite as time went on, especially in the post-2016 environment. 

• CA-7
• CA-10 (I almost used this one instead of CA-25)
• CO-6
• IL-10
• IL-13
• ME-2
• MN-1
• MN-2
• NC-8 (was redrawn mid-decade)
• NY-22
• VA-2 (was redrawn mid-decade)

Conclusion: The post-2012 Congressional elections have seen significant upheaval and change on the House map, with most of the remaining Democratic seats in rural White territory withering away and many longtime Republican suburban and urban seats becoming more competitive or flipping blue. Many of these seats have become relatively uncompetitive since changing sides, and will likely continue unless another big change occurs. Yet, in between these two trends, some districts have remained consistently competitive throughout the last decade, including multiple that have flipped parties multiple times within that time period. While most also featured close presidential results by either party in the concurrent or preceding presidential election, there are some notable exceptions, including FL-26 and UT-4. With another round of national redistricting around the corner, some of the current districts will generally remain the same,  but new ones will be created, and others will be eliminated altogether. As a result, while some of the districts (or their post-2020 version) might remain competitive going into the middle of the decade, others will emerge depending on redistricting or changes in electoral geography. 

Election Data Sources: 

Haas, Karen H. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 6, 2012." Clerk of the United States House of Representatives, 28 Feb. 2013, history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/Election-Statistics/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

---. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 4, 2014." Clerk of the United States House of Representatives, 9 Mar. 2015, history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/Election-Statistics/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

---. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 8, 2016." Clerk of the United States House of Representatives, 27 Feb. 2017, history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2016election/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

"House Election Results 2020." CNN, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/house. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Johnson, Cheryl. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 6, 2016." Clerk of the United States House of Representatives, 28 Feb. 2019, history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2018election/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Nir, David. "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012." Daily Kos, 19 Nov. 2020, www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020-2016-and-2012. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Works Cited: 

Aaronson, Becca, and Reeve Hamilton. "Congressional Roundup: In Narrow, Pricey Defeat, Gallego Ousts Canseco." Texas Tribune, 7 Nov. 2012, www.texastribune.org/2012/11/07/congressional-round-gallego-closely-defeats-cansec/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Akin, Stephanie. "These 47 House Democrats are on the GOP’s target list for 2022." Roll Call, 10 Feb. 2021, www.rollcall.com/2021/02/10/these-47-house-democrats-are-on-the-gops-target-list-for-2022/. Accessed 11 Apr. 2021. 

"AP: Rod Blum winner of Iowa US House 1 race." KCCI8, 4 Nov. 2014, www.kcci.com/article/ap-rod-blum-winner-of-iowa-us-house-1-race/6899033#. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

Axelrod, Tad. "Bacon wins key Nebraska House race." The Hill, 4 Nov. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523491-bacon-wins-key-nebraska-house-race. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

---. "Rep. Steven Horsford wins Democratic House primary in Nevada." The Hill, 10 Jun. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/502028-rep-steven-horsford-wins-democratic-house-primary-in-nevada. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

"Bacon wins Nebraska House seat after Ashford concedes." Politico, 9 Nov. 2016, www.politico.com/story/2016/11/don-bacon-beats-brad-ashford-231105. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021.

Barragán, James. "Gina Ortiz Jones concedes to Will Hurd in race for Texas' most competitive congressional district." The Dallas Morning News, 19 Nov. 2018, www.dallasnews.com/news/2018/11/19/gina-ortiz-jones-concedes-to-will-hurd-in-race-for-texas-most-competitive-congressional-district/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Blood, Michael. "Scandal brings election risk for rising Democratic star." Associated Press, 26 Oct. 2019, apnews.com/article/dd03694625f845349b4c2984330eadbd. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Bowman, Bridget. "GOP Poll Shows Close Race for Rod Blum in Iowa’s 1st District." Roll Call, 16 Oct. 2018, www.rollcall.com/2018/10/16/gop-poll-shows-close-race-for-rod-blum-in-iowas-1st-district/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

---. "Rep. Steve Knight: The Most Vulnerable Republican in California?." Roll Call, 31 May 2018, www.rollcall.com/2018/05/31/rep-steve-knight-the-most-vulnerable-republican-in-california/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Buzzacco-Foerster, Jenna. "Carlos Curbelo wins a second term in CD 26." Florida Politics, 8 Nov. 2016, floridapolitics.com/archives/226757-carlos-curbelo-wins-second-term-cd-26/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Camia, Catalina. "Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson won't seek new term." Politico, 17 Dec. 2013, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/12/17/jim-matheson-congress-retire-utah-blue-dog/4062943/. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

"Carlos Curbelo Loses District 26 In Tightly Contested House Race." WLRN, 6 Nov. 2018, www.wlrn.org/news/2018-11-06/carlos-curbelo-loses-district-26-in-tightly-contested-house-race. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Carosa, Kristen, and John DiStaso. "Updated: Shea-Porter says she won’t seek re-election in 2018, but 'not retiring'." WMUR, 6 Oct. 2017, www.wmur.com/article/surprise-announcement-shea-porter-says-she-wont-run-for-re-election-in-2018/12796248. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

Crippes, Christiania. "Blum wins 1st District race as Vernon concedes." The Gazette, 9 Nov. 2016, www.thegazette.com/campaigns-elections/blum-wins-1st-district-race-as-vernon-concedes/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Davidson, Lee. "It’s over. Democrat Ben McAdams ousts Republican Rep. Mia Love by 694 votes." Salt Lake Tribune, 20 Nov. 2018, www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/20/its-over-democrat-ben/. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

Denkmann, Libby. "CA-25 Special Election: Who Will Represent This District During The Coronavirus Pandemic And Recovery?." LAist, 23 Apr. 2020, laist.com/2020/04/23/ca-25-special-election-congressional-district-coronavirus-pandemi.php. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

DiGiacomo, Julia. "Abby Finkenauer unseats Republican Rod Blum in Iowa’s 1st District." The Daily Iowan, 6 Nov. 2018, dailyiowan.com/2018/11/06/abby-finkenauer-unseats-republican-rod-blum-in-iowas-1st-district/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Dixon, Darius. "Jacky Rosen unseats Dean Heller in Nevada Senate race." Politico, 7 Nov. 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/11/07/jacky-rosen-vs-dean-heller-nevada-senate-race-results-2018-963523. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Emerson, Justin. "Nevada Democrat Steven Horsford reelected to U.S. House." Las Vegas Sun, 6 Nov. 2020, lasvegassun.com/news/2020/nov/06/democrats-horsford-lee-leading-in-nevada-house-rac/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Etters, Karl. "Gwen Graham defeats Steve Southerland." Tallahassee Democrat, 5 Nov. 2014, www.tallahassee.com/story/news/local/state/2014/11/04/thirty-percent-of-congressional-district-voters-have-cast-ballots/18452597/. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

Felde, Kitty. "GOP Rep. ‘Buck’ McKeon of Santa Clarita to step down after 11 terms." 89.3KPCC, 15 Jan. 2014, www.scpr.org/blogs/politics/2014/01/15/15613/buck-mckeon-set-to-step-down-after-11-terms/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Flom, Christina. "Republican Carlos Curbelo Re-Elected in Florida’s 26th District." Roll Call, 8 Nov. 2016, www.rollcall.com/2016/11/08/republican-carlos-curbelo-re-elected-in-floridas-26th-district/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Foley, Ryan. "House Ethics Committee investigating Iowa Rep. Rod Blum." Associated Press, 4 Sept. 2018, apnews.com/article/faac7334ea554b9db652704982312525. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Gildea, Terry. "First Black Republican Congresswoman Wants To Be Known For More." National Public Radio, 30 Dec. 2014, www.npr.org/2014/12/30/374033033/first-black-republican-congresswoman-wants-to-be-known-for-more. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

Gronewold, Anna. "Fed Up in Flyover Country." Politico, 2 Oct. 2020, www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/02/trump-republicans-nebraska-nice-420691. Accessed 4 Oct. 2020. 

Hansen, Ronald. "Democrat Tom O'Halleran captures 1st Congressional District; GOP maintains majority." Arizona Central, 8 Nov. 2016, www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/08/arizona-congressional-district-election-results-babeu-ohalleran/92894480/. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

---. "Rep. Tom O'Halleran wins a third term; all of Arizona's US House incumbents reelected." AZCentral, 10 Nov. 2020, www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2020/11/10/rep-tom-ohalleran-defeats-tiffany-shedd-win-third-term/6215675002/. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

Higgins, Tucker. "Republicans hope Cubans, warming to Trump, will deliver them Democrats’ most vulnerable Florida House seat." NBC News, 30 Oct. 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/10/30/florida-house-race-debbie-mucarsel-powell-carlos-gimenez-in-tight-race.html. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Jordan, Joe. "Ann Ashford Won't Endorse Eastman." News Channel Nebraska Central, 24 Aug. 2020, www.newschannelnebraska.com/story/42534880/ann-ashford-wont-endorse-eastman-does-she-want-eastman-to-lose-and-what-about-those-campaign-files. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Kendall, Karson. "House Democrats to target 22 districts in next year's midterms." ABC News, 6 Apr. 2021, abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-democrats-target-22-districts-years-midterms/story?id=76900315. Accessed 11 Apr. 2021. 

Kilgore, Ed. "How Did Republicans Win a Special Congressional Election in California?." Intelligencer, The New Yorker Magazine, 18 May 2020, nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/how-did-republicans-win-a-california-congressional-election.html. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Kisken, Tom. "25th Congressional District results: Republican Mike Garcia beats Dem Christy Smith." Ventura County Star, 30 Nov. 2020, www.vcstar.com/story/news/local/2020/11/30/california-25th-district-mike-garcia-election-results-christy-smith/6456657002/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Livingston, Abby. "Lee Terry’s Seat Gives Republicans Heartburn in Nebraska." Roll Call, 29 May 2014, www.rollcall.com/2014/05/29/lee-terrys-seat-gives-republicans-heartburn-in-nebraska/. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

Livingston, Abby, and Elena Meija Lutz. "U.S. Rep. Will Hurd victorious in rematch with Pete Gallego." Texas Tribune, 8 Nov. 2016, www.texastribune.org/2016/11/08/texas-23rd-congressional-district-results/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Lochhead, Colton. "Lee wins re-election, other races still tight." Las Vegas Review-Journal, www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/lee-wins-re-election-other-races-still-tight-2178901/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Martinez, Alexandra. "How Democrats can win back the Cuban-American vote." CNN, 27 Nov. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/11/27/opinions/how-democrats-can-win-back-the-cuban-american-vote-alexandra-martinez/index.html. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

Matheny, Ryan. "Bacon wins rematch with Eastman in Nebraska's 2nd District." KMALand, 4 Nov. 2020, www.kmaland.com/news/bacon-wins-rematch-with-eastman-in-nebraskas-2nd-district/article_208c7a60-1e72-11eb-9841-43cd243105f9.html. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

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Modesti, Kevin. "Election 2018: Steve Knight concedes; Democrat Katie Hill wins the 25th Congressional District." Los Angeles Daily News, 7 Nov. 2018, www.dailynews.com/2018/11/07/election-2018-steve-hill-concedes-democrat-katie-hill-wins-the-25th-congressional-district/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Mutnick, Ally. "Ann Kirkpatrick announces 1st House retirement of 2022." Politico, 12 Mar. 2021, www.politico.com/news/2021/03/12/ann-kirkpatrick-announces-house-retirement-475512. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

Narea, Nicole. "Republican Tony Gonzales has won retiring Rep. Will Hurd’s seat in Texas." Vox, 4 Nov. 2020, www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/4/21535743/house-results-texas-23-gonzales-ortiz-jones. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021.

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Panetta, Grace. "LIVE UPDATES: Kara Eastman wins the Democratic primary in Nebraska's second congressional district." Business Insider, 12 May 2020, www.businessinsider.com/nebraska-house-primaries-kara-eastman-vs-ann-ashford-live-results-2020-5. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Pearce, Andrew. "Republican Ashley Hinson beats incumbent Abby Finkenauer in 1st Congressional District race." KWWL7, 3 Nov. 2020, kwwl.com/2020/11/03/republican-ashley-hinson-beats-incumbent-abby-finkenauer-in-1st-congressional-district-race/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Phillips, Amber. "Cresent Hardy closes out surprising win over Rep. Steven Horsford." Las Vegas Sun, 4 Nov. 2014, lasvegassun.com/news/2014/nov/04/cresent-hardy-holds-surprising-lead-rep-steven-hor/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Price, Michelle. "Boosted by activism, Nevada women score big election wins." KOLD13, 8 Nov. 2018, www.kold.com/2018/11/08/boosted-by-activism-nevada-women-score-big-election-wins/. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Reilly, Mollie. "Lee Terry Apologizes For Refusing To Give Up Salary During Shutdown To Pay For His ‘Nice House’." The Huffington Post, 6 Oct. 2013, www.huffpost.com/entry/lee-terry-salary_n_4054283. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021.

Rindels, Michelle. "Former Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford announces run for his old House seat." The Nevada Independent, 25 Jan. 2018, thenevadaindependent.com/article/democratic-former-rep-steven-horsford-announces-run-for-his-old-house-seat. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

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Roche, Lisa Riley. "Burgess Owens wins back Utah’s 4th Congressional District seat for Republicans." Deseret News, 16 Nov. 2020, www.deseret.com/utah/2020/11/16/21569764/rep-ben-mcadams-is-conceding-to-burgess-owens-in-close-4th-district-race. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

Singer, Jeff. "Trump's gains with Latinos were most pronounced in three heavily Cuban districts in South Florida." Daily Kos, 15 Jan. 2021, www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/1/15/2009489/-Trump-s-gains-with-Latinos-were-most-pronounced-in-three-heavily-Cuban-districts-in-South-Florida. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

---. "Texas didn't go as planned for Democrats, but the suburbs still moved sharply away from Republicans." Daily Kos, 14 Jan. 2021, www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/1/14/2009139/-Texas-didn-t-go-as-planned-for-Democrats-but-the-suburbs-still-moved-sharply-away-from-Republicans. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Snyder, Riley. "Dogged by sexual harassment allegations, Ruben Kihuen says he won't run for re-election to Congress." The Nevada Independent, 16 Dec. 2017, thenevadaindependent.com/article/dogged-by-sexual-harassment-allegations-ruben-kihuen-says-he-wont-run-for-reelection-to-congress. Accessed 10 Apr. 2021. 

Steinhauser, Paul. "On the trail: National Republicans target Hassan." Concord Monitor, 26 Mar. 2021, www.concordmonitor.com/on-the-trail-39659543. Accessed 9 Apr. 2021. 

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     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record