July Update on the California Gubernatorial Recall

July Update on the California Gubernatorial Recall

Introduction: One of the biggest political developments to occur this year is the Gavin Newsom recall movement's success in making it to the ballot this year. With the recall election scheduled for September 14th, this will be the fourth gubernatorial recall attempt to occur in American history, and the second in California (along with the famous 2003 one). Since my previous coverage of the recall movement occurred before the election was made official and replacement candidates started jumping in, today's post will provide updates on the situation.

Notable Replacement Candidates: On July 21, California's Secretary of State certified the candidate list, with 46 candidates qualifying as replacement candidates on Question 2, compared with 135 in the 2003 recall (Nixon). Remember that Question 2 is only relevant if a majority of voters choose "Yes" on Question 1 (to recall the official from office). 

• John Cox (R): In 2018, Cox made it out of the "Jungle Primary" into one of the general election slots, losing to Newsom in the fall (Source). Cox's campaign gained attention due to his use of a live Bear, and subsequent re-branding of his campaign with a focus on the creature and him as a "Beast" (Marinucci, "California"). At the same time, Cox has been critical of the state Republican Party, accusing them of favoring Faulconer over him as part of the endorsement process (Ronayne, "California's recall election"). 
• Larry Elder (R): After some last-minute shenanigans involving requirements to qualify for the ballot, the conservative Black talk show host was included on the recall ballot after a Sacramento County judge ruled in his favor. The dispute was over California's election law that requires candidates submit 5 years worth of tax returns to be eligible; the Secretary of State's office had ruled that his tax return paperwork did not satisfy the requirements. Despite his late entry, Elder has gained significant attention, reflected by him leading the recent Emeron College poll (discussed below) (White). 
• Doug Ose (R): Ose previously served as the U.S. Representative for CA-3, and previously ran in the 2018 Gubernatorial election before dropping out. As a moderate Republican, Ose hopes to use this credential to work with state Democrats to resolve some of California's most pressing issues, but faces a challenge in elevating his profile (Blood, "Former GOP"). 
• Kevin Faulconer (R): Formerly the Mayor of San Diego, Faulconer was widely speculated as a potential candidate for the 2018 Gubernatorial election, but gave that race a pass in the end ("San Diego Mayor"). During his tenure as Mayor, he built up a moderate profile, and has since been seen as a rising Republican star in a state that has become nearly unwinnable for the GOP. The main challenge facing his campaign is whether his heavy focus on policies and desire to be a "serious" candidate will win over GOP voters, especially when compared to the campaign personas of other candidates in the field (Christopher). 
• Caitlyn Jenner (R): Probably the most-discussed replacement candidate so far is ex-Olympian and Wheaties icon formerly known as Bruce Jenner, whose launch video highlighted her background as an Olympic athlete and personality of being a "compassionate disrupter" ("California Recall"). Despite the extensive coverage of her campaign, it has also not generated significant fundraising results, campaign infrastructure, or Republican endorsements, and was trailing in polls behind the other candidates profiled above (Marinucci, "Jenner"). 

No notable Democrats qualified for the ballot, which is likely a reflection of the state party's optimism that Governor Newsom could survive the recall, and to boost partisan unity going into the recall (Ronayne, "California's recall ballot"). This contrasts with the 2003 recall, when then-Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante (D) ran as a potential replacement for Davis (May and Yamamura). Yet, it is important to note that in 2003, California was more Republican-leaning and Governor Gray Davis (D) was far more unpopular, with 70% of the state's voters have an unpopular opinion of him before the recall (Kiefer; May and Yamamura). 

Polling: Generally, recent polls have shown that Californians desire to keep Governor Newsom in office, with views polarized along partisan lines. Going in line with national political trends, a vast majority of state Democrats support keeping Newsom in office, and vice-versa for Republicans (Nixon). Polling on Question 2 shows an uncertain result if that Question were to become relevant in the actual election. A poll conducted last week by Emerson College showed no candidate above 20%, with over half of those polled being uncertain about their choice. Among the prominent Republicans, John Cox (R) and Larry Elder (R) have led the last two polls, with the other candidates being just behind ("California Voters"; Iverson). 

The Emerson College poll indicated that California's homeless crisis is a significant policy issue, evident by a majority of those polled responding "poor" to the Governor's handling of the situation. Other significant issues include the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, related pandemic measures, wildfires, and the emerging drought. In particular, a vast majority of voters are concerned about the COVID Delta variant, but are split on measures to contain it ("California Voters"). 

Conclusion: Unless there is a significant development before that point, I do not plan to put out another California Gubernatorial recall post until September 12th, the last Sunday before the election, where I do a final pre-election overview. Despite the physical election day still being over a month and a half away, ballots will start being sent out next week by mail (Mays and Yamamura). In the meantime, as described above, current polling shows Governor Newsom as likely to survive the recall, which is likely a dual reflection on the recall movement's intensity and the state's partisan lean. Nonetheless, the final margin on Question 1 could give hints as to the real strength of California Democrats and Republicans in the current era, especially with increasing polarization and tribalism in American politics. 

Works Cited: 

Blood, Michael. "Former GOP Rep. Doug Ose enters California recall election." Associated Press, 16 Mar. 2021, apnews.com/article/john-cox-kevin-faulconer-san-diego-elections-coronavirus-pandemic-d567c8d7703cccbf9fb56236ade9e767. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

---. "San Diego ex-mayor Faulconer to run for California governor." Associated Press, 2 Feb. 2021, apnews.com/article/los-angeles-kevin-faulconer-san-diego-coronavirus-pandemic-elections-8e504350ee04cbc4713f08f0ab467b33. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

"California Voters Split on Recalling Governor Newsom." Emerson College Polling, emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/california-voters-split-on-recalling-governor-newsom. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Christopher, Ben. "A serious man: Can Kevin Faulconer run for governor without the gimmicks?" CalMatters, 18 Jun. 2021, calmatters.org/politics/2021/06/kevin-faulconer-governor/. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Iverson, Erik. "California Recall Survey Results." Moore Information Group, 9 Jun. 2021, johncox.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/MEMO-Interested-Parties-MIG-June-9-2021.pdf. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Kiefer, Francine. "Why California’s governor is facing a recall vote. Three questions." Christian Science Monitor, 27 Apr. 2021, www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2021/0427/Why-California-s-governor-is-facing-a-recall-vote.-Three-questions. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Marinucci, Carla. "California recall brings circus act to town." Politico, 4 May 2021, www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/05/04/california-recall-goes-into-circus-mode-1380199. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

---. "Jenner insists she's leading California recall field despite polling." Politico, 9 Jul. 2021, www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/07/09/jenner-insists-shes-leading-california-recall-field-despite-polling-1388190. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Mays, McKenzie, and Kevin Yamamura. "California has 41 candidates for September recall election." Politico, 18 Jul. 2021, www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/07/18/california-has-41-candidates-for-september-recall-election-1388537. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Nixon, Nicole. "California Recall: What To Know About The Effort To Remove Gavin Newsom." Capital Public Radio, 22 Jul. 2021, www.capradio.org/articles/2021/07/22/signatures-are-in-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-gavin-newsom-recall-effort/. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

Ronayne, Kathleen. "California’s recall ballot is set, but GOP strategy isn’t." Associated Press, 22 Jul. 2021, apnews.com/article/health-government-and-politics-california-coronavirus-pandemic-05c97aaeeaba8a3c9185848d7a6b78be. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

---. "California's recall election is now set. Can the GOP oust Newsom?" Christian Science Monitor, 23 Jul. 2021, www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2021/0723/California-s-recall-election-is-now-set.-Can-the-GOP-oust-Newsom. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

"San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer discussing 2018 California governor’s race." The Orange County Register, 7 Jan. 2017, www.ocregister.com/2017/01/07/san-diego-mayor-kevin-faulconer-discussing-2018-california-governors-race/. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

White, Jeremy. "California recall has 46 candidates after last-minute jockeying." Politico, 21 Jul. 2021, www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/07/21/talk-show-host-larry-elder-reinstated-in-california-recall-1388853. Accessed 25 Jul. 2021. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record