3/21 UPDATE: the information presented on this page (e.g. election dates) was accurate at the time of this post's original publication. Since all of the special elections detailed here have been assigned dates since the post's original publication, the information below is updated to reflect this. Note that the TX-6 special election information was also not originally included here, since the event leading to this election occurred after the original publication.
2021's Special Congressional and Gubernatorial Elections
Introduction: With the 2020 elections now receding into the past (with one exception, explained below), attention has shifted to focus on 2021's elections, which will be the first under President Biden. Usually, elections in the first year of a new President often receive significant attention because said elections can provide insights as to the President's favorability amongst the public, and thus provide hints for the upcoming midterms. With that in mind, at least four special Congressional elections will take place in 2021, as well as gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Today's blog will briefly discuss these six elections, plus a bonus paragraph at the end that details the last 2020 House race whose results are in dispute and have not been certified.
Special Congressional Elections:
Louisiana 2 (March 20, 2021) (April 24, 2021 if runoff is required (Rakich and Skelley)):
Image Source: "File:Louisiana US Congressional District 2 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Louisiana_US_Congressional_District_2_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
This majority-Black seat will soon become vacant as incumbent Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) is expected to resign and join the incoming Biden administration as a senior advisor ("Stacey"). Multiple Democrats have already entered the race, including State Senator and former Party Chair Karen Carter Peterson and activist Gary Chambers Jr. (Giroux). Recently, Georgia activist and ex-State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams endorsed Peterson against Chambers and Troy Carter, a State Senator ("Stacey").
Louisiana 5 (March 20, 2021) (April 24, 2021 if runoff is required (Rakich and Skelley)):
Image Source: "File:Louisiana US Congressional District 5 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Louisiana_US_Congressional_District_5_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Out of the five announced special Congressional elections that will take place this year (as of 3/21/2021), this is the only one that started the new Congress without an incumbent. This heavily-red district in Northeast Louisiana was an open-seat race in 2020, where Republican Luke Letlow was elected to secede his former boss, outgoing Rep. Ralph Abraham (R). However, Letlow died of COVID-related complications on December 29th, 2020 at the age of 41 (Hilburn). Along with another Republican and a Democrat that vied for the seat last year, Letlow's widow Julia Letlow announced today that she should would run for the seat, a decision that other potential candidates were likely waiting on. In her announcement speech on a local radio station, she decided to run for the seat to keep his legacy and aspirations alive (Domangue).
Texas 6 (May 1, 2021) (Axelrod)
Image Source: "File:Texas US Congressional District 6 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, 28 Mar. 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Texas_US_Congressional_District_6_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021.
TX-6 is a historically-Republican district split between the DFW suburbs in Tarrant County and exurban and rural territory that in recent presidential cycles has become less red, especially between 2016 and 2020. In 2018, longtime Rep. Joe Barton (R) decided to retire, with Tarrant County Tax Assessor Ron Wright (R) winning the seat. However, Rep. Wright died on February 8 after testing positive for COVID-19 and battling lung cancer for two years, making him the second member (after Rep-elect Letlow) to die from the virus (Zanona). The main Republican candidate is Wright's widow Susan Wright (R), who (like Julia Letlow) is running to continue his legacy and ambitions (Axelrod). Of the 22 other candidates also filed before the deadline, around 10 Republicans and Democrats each jumped into the field, plus an independent and a libertarian. In addition to Wright, other prominent Republicans running include ex-wrestler Dan Rodimer (R) (who ran in a Nevada House race last year, and moved to Texas to run in the TX-6 special), Trump's Health and Human Services Chief of Staff Brian Harrison, and state legislator Jake Ellzey. Prominent Democrats include 2018 nominee Jana Lynne Sanchez, 2020 state legislature candidate Lydia Bean, and nonprofit leader Shawn Lassiter (Svitek). Like Louisiana, Texas special elections have all candidates run on the same ballot, and in order to win, one has to receive 50% on the first-round or in a top-two runoff (Friend).
New Mexico 1 (June 1, 2021) (Akin):
Image Source: "File:New Mexico US Congressional District 1 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, last modified 15 May 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:New_Mexico_US_Congressional_District_1_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
This Albuquerque-based House seat is held by Rep. Deb Haaland (D), one of the first female Native American Members of Congress elected to Congress, and is expected to resign soon to become Biden's Secretary of the Interior (C. Rodriguez). A special election date will be determined once Rep. Haaland is confirmed by the Senate and vacates their seat (McKee). As of Jan. 11, 2021, four Democrats have announced their intention to run in the special election, including State Senator Antoinette Sedillo Lopez, State Representatives Georgene Louis and Melaine Stansbury, Attorney Randi McGinn, and Gubernatorial Staffer Victor Reyes (McKee). No Republicans have entered the race, but ex-Republican Libertarian Aubrey Dunn recently filed paperwork to run (Boyd). There will not be traditional party primaries, as each party's central committee will choose their candidate. Because the seat has been held by Republicans as recently as 2009, and considering that it is an open seat, there is potential for it to be competitive (McKee). A potential mirror to NM-1's special election is April 2017's KS-4 special election, which saw a close result in a district where Trump got 60% (Dann et al.). Note that Biden received around 60% in NM-1, and won by about 23%, which further creates the possibility of history rhyming this year (Akin; Giroux)
Ohio 11 (November 2, 2021) (DeNatale):
Image Source: "File:Ohio US Congressional District 11 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, last modified 11 Apr. 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ohio_US_Congressional_District_11_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Out of the announced Congressional Special Elections, this one is likely to be the most-watched of the year. Incumbent Rep. Marcia Fudge (D) is expected to resign if and when they are confirmed to be Biden's Housing and Urban Development Secretary (Giroux). Progressive icon Nina Turner (D), who founded the progressive campaign organization Our Revolution, has already jumped in and has been campaigning several weeks, attracting significant attention and endorsements (such as Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (I)) (Schmelz). Two other candidates are also running in the Democratic primary, Cuyahoga County Democratic Party Chair Shontel Brown, and Cleveland City Councilor Jeff Johnson, while others are considering running, including ex-Rep. and ex-Cleveland Mayor Dennis Kucinich (Krieg). Party primaries will be held on August 3, 2021 (DeNatale).
Gubernatorial Elections:
- New Jersey: About to complete his first term, incumbent Governor Phil Murphy (D) is running for a second term in a blue state while boasting a 60% approval rating. His main opponent is ex-Assemblymember Jack Ciattarelli, a moderate Republican who has spoken out against Trump. Earlier this week, pro-Trump attorney Doug Steinhardt dropped out of the race, which has been speculated to be because of last week's raid of the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters. Ciattarelli now only faces two minor candidates in the primary race, but has also come under fire from Democrats for not explicitly blaming Trump for the riots (Friedman).
- Virginia: Unlike other states, Virginia does not allow Governors to serve for consecutive terms, which disqualifies incumbent Ralph Northam from running again (S. Rodriguez and Shepard). Virginia's off-cycle gubernatorial election is often seen as a bellwether for new Presidents' upcoming midterms, which prominently occurred in 2009 and 2017. Republicans are hoping that history could repeat itself now that a Democrat will be in the White House. Yet, Virginia's massive political shift in the Trump era (powered by the rapidly-expanding and diverse suburban parts of the state) have made recent elections there more difficult for Republicans. Another factor whose impact on the general election is still yet to be seen is the Democratic primary. The current Democratic field is very divided, especially because of increased prevalence of the progressive wing in a state that used to elect pro-business Governors regardless of party. So far, multiple top-tier Democrats have jumped-in, including ex-Governor Terry McAuliffe, State Delegates Jennifer Carroll Foy and Lee Carter (the latter a Democratic Socialist), State Senator Jennifer McClellan, and Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax. McAuliffe has been attacked by Foy and Carter for being out-of-touch, wealthy, and in sync with big money, while McClellan has emphasized herself as a moderate alternative. On the Republican side, whose primary will be decided by a convention, the two main candidates reflect the new and old GOP. In similarity to Ciattarelli in New Jersey, ex-House Speaker Kirk Cox is running a moderate campaign to bring Trump-disliking suburban voters back to the party. The main Trumpian-like opponent is State Senator Amanda Chase, who recently suggested that martial law should be implemented to stop President-Elect Biden, and has made comments leaning on White supremacy. Finally, Princess Blanding (a Black woman), whose brother was killed by police in 2018, is running a third-party campaign under the fledgling Liberation Party (Suderman).
2020's Last Uncalled House Race: The disputes over NY-22's vote-counting
Image Source: "File:New York US Congressional District 22 (since 2013).tif." Wikimedia Commons, last modified 29 Mar. 2014, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:New_York_US_Congressional_District_22_(since_2013).tif. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
While no Special Election has been formally called for this Upstate New York seat, this is the only 2020 House election that has not been certified, thus making it an empty seat at the moment (Hogan). In that race, current and ex-Reps. Anthony Brindisi (D) and Claudia Tenney (R) faced-off in a rematch after the former unseated the latter in 2018 (Howe). Since then, this thin-as-a-hair race has witnessed the unveiling of multiple issues and errors with the vote-counting process in multiple counties, including several uncounted batches of potentially-eligible ballots being uncovered weeks after Election Day. Further investigation has also revealed that up to 2,500 eligible voters in Oneida County were not able to vote despite their applications being received before Election Day. Between these investigations, the district's results were taken to a local court, whose judge initially ruled that there was no evidence of intentional wrongdoing, or that the ballots were not counted due to COVID-related limitations (e.g. lower capacity and resources). The court case over the district's election results resumes on Jan. 22, where it will be ruled whether 60 Oneida County affidavit ballots whose voters registered through the Department of Motor Vehicles online system, but were among those not processed. After a final decision is issued by the judge on the remaining ballots, it is expected that the full results will be certified (Howe).
Works Cited:
Akin, Stephanie. "Vote set for June 1 to fill Haaland seat in New Mexico’s 1st District." Roll Call, 17 Mar. 2021, www.rollcall.com/2021/03/17/vote-set-for-june-1-to-fill-haaland-seat-in-new-mexicos-1st-district/. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021.
Axelrod, Tal. "Susan Wright, wife of Texas congressman who died of COVID-19, announces run for seat." The Hill, 24 Feb. 2021, rhehill.com/homenews/campaign/540435-susan-wright-wife-of-texas-congressman-who-died-of-covid-19-announces-run. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021.
Boyd, Dan. "Gov’s office staffer, ex-land commissioner join CD1 fray." Albuquerque Journal, 8 Jan. 2021, www.abqjournal.com/1534398/govs-office-staffer-exland-commissioner-join-cd1-fray.html. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Dann, Carrie, Mark Murray, and Chuck Todd. "Inside the Numbers, the Georgia Election Is Still a Boost for Dems." NBC News, 19 Apr. 2017, www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/inside-numbers-georgia-election-still-boost-dems-n748211. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
DeNatale, Dave "Dino." "Special election for Ohio's 11th congressional district will be held on Nov. 2, 2021." WKYC-3 Studios, 18 Mar. 2021, www.wkyc.com/article/news/politics/elections/election-ohio-11th-congressional-district-november-2-2021/95-1d0a664f-2a11-41a9-8e7e-e16c8497b41b. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021.
Deslatte, Melinda. "Analysis: New Louisiana political year, with repeat debates." Associated Press, 3 Jan. 2021, apnews.com/article/race-and-ethnicity-legislature-new-orleans-louisiana-political-debates-f7889eeaac5f39fb757e82858ca98ea1. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Domangue, Dylan. "How will the 5th Congressional District race look for the special election?" KALB, 14 Jan. 2020, www.kalb.com/2021/01/15/how-will-the-5th-congressional-district-race-look-for-the-special-election/. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Friedman, Matt. "Capitol insurrection may have claimed its first GOP candidacy." Politico, 13 Jan. 2021, www.politico.com/news/2021/01/13/capitol-insurrection-gop-candidacy-458882. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Friend, Daniel. "Crowded Field of Candidates Finalized for Texas’ 6th Congressional District Special Election." The Texan, 3 Mar. 2021, thetexan.news/crowded-field-of-candidates-finalized-for-texas-6th-congressional-district-special-election/. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021.
Giroux, Greg. "Biden’s Lawmaker Poaching Sets Up Three 2021 Special Elections." Bloomberg Government, 22 Dec. 2020, about.bgov.com/news/bidens-lawmaker-poaching-sets-up-three-2021-special-elections/. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Hilburn, Greg. "Louisiana Congressman-elect Luke Letlow dies from COVID complications at 41." The News-Star, 29 Dec. 2020, www.thenewsstar.com/story/news/2020/12/29/louisiana-congressman-elect-luke-letlow-dies-covid/4082977001/. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Hogan, Amy. "Judge Continues Review of Hundreds Of Ballots In NY-22 Congressional Race." Fox 40, 4 Jan. 2021, www.wicz.com/story/43125248/judge-continues-review-of-hundreds-of-ballots-in-ny22-congressional-race?fbclid=IwAR1LT2YupV7-lS3Sf637cFvWhIdZ0UjqL2xSRgDpnkaQTYs3qvaBbBh3LEE. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Howe, Steve. "NY22: Where the Brindisi vs. Tenney congressional race stands." Utica Observer-Dispatch, 13 Jan. 2021, www.uticaod.com/story/news/2021/01/13/anthony-brindisi-claudia-tenney-ny-22-where-house-race-stands/6636725002/. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Krieg, Gregory. "Justice Democrats endorse top Sanders ally Nina Turner to fill Ohio House seat." CNN, 11 Jan. 2021, www.cnn.com/2021/01/11/politics/justice-democrats-endorse-nina-turner-ohio-congress/index.html. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
McKee, Chris. "New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District Special Election." KRQE-13, 11 Jan. 2021, www.krqe.com/news/politics-government/elections/new-mexicos-1st-congressional-district-special-election/. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Rodriguez, Christina. "Biden picks Rep. Haaland to be first Native American Interior secretary." KOB 4, 17 Dec. 2020, www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/biden-picks-rep-haaland-to-be-first-native-american-interior-secretary/5954487/. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Rodriguez, Sabrina, and Steven Shepard. "Three-quarters of states will elect governors in the next 2 years. Here’s a field guide." Politico, 16 Dec. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16/governors-guide-election-2021-2022-445430. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Schmelz, Ryan. "Meet Nina Turner — A Frontrunner for Fudge's Seat." Spectrum News 1, 14 Jan. 2021, spectrumnews1.com/oh/cincinnati/news/2021/01/13/meet-rep--nina-turner---a-frontrunner-for-fudge-s-seat. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Skelley, Geoffrey, and Nathaniel Rakich. "What To Watch In Louisiana’s Two Special Elections." FiveThirtyEight, 18 Mar. 2021, fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-watch-in-louisianas-two-special-elections/. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021.
"Stacey Abrams endorses Karen Carter Peterson for Louisiana's U.S. House seat." 4WWWL, 14 Jan. 2021, www.wwltv.com/article/news/politics/stacey-abrams-endorses-karen-carter-peterson-for-us-house/289-d6094bcd-4356-4a39-bfaa-7a0725000ff9. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Suderman, Alan. "2021 marquee contest: Virginia governor’s race in high gear." Associated Press, 2 Jan. 2021, apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-politics-virginia-richmond-2455fac59aeadb4ff06f08d7bf42fc11. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Svitek, Patrick. "23 candidates join the race to replace late U.S. Rep. Ron Wright." The Texas Tribune, 3 Mar. 2021, www.texastribune.org/2021/03/03/ron-wright-special-election-filing/. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021.
Zanona, Melanie. "GOP Rep. Ron Wright dies after Covid diagnosis." Politico, 8 Feb. 2021, www.politico.com/news/2021/02/08/gop-rep-ron-wright-dies-after-covid-battle-467238. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021.
Nathan Parmeter
Nathan Parmeter
Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record
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