February Update on the Newsom Recall Movement
Introduction: Last month, I looked into the recall movement against California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), whose tenure as governor has made him a significant number of enemies, especially on the right. Today's post will provide a brief update on the recall movement, including the number of signatures and verified signatures, external interest in the movement, and prominent candidates thinking of or who already have jumped into the race against Newsom.
Collected and Verified Signatures: Per a Tweet two days ago from Rob Pyers, around 1.5 million total signatures have been collected as of February 5th. Out of the number that were processed by California's counties, around 668,000 were valid. Depending on future validation trends, anywhere from 700,000 to 900,000 additional signatures will have to be collected by March 17th if the recall movement is to be put on the ballot. As a reminder, to qualify for the ballot, around 1.5 million valid signatures total have to be submitted to the California Secretary of State (@rpyers). Reportedly, around 300,000 of the signatures submitted are from Democratic voters, which has been argued by Republicans to be evidence of bipartisan upset towards Newsom (Bidar and Navarro).
Potential Republican Candidates (and for 2022): Even though the recall movement has not made it to the ballot, several high-profile Republican candidates have been speculated to be considering running either for the recall and/or the 2022 gubernatorial election, when Newsom is up for another term. Of note is John Cox (R), an ex-Democrat who ran against Newsom in 2018 and lost significantly, which he blames on his lack of name recognition (Brooks and Sovern, "Cox aims"). Another prominent Republican who is thinking of running is the relatively centrist ex-San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R), who has been critical of Governor Newsom (Brooks and Sovern, "Republican Faulconer"). Ex-Trump cabinet member Richard Grennell has also been considering a run, and could receive the ex-president's endorsement if he does (Ting). Finally, ex-Congressman Doug Ose (R) has also been involved with the movement, and is also reported to be considering a run (Isenstadt).
External Interest and Influence: Since I made the first blog post about the recall movement, Governor Newsom and his allies have become increasingly concerned that a recall election could be on the ballot soon (Sager). Recently, President Biden (D) announced his support for Newsom and opposition to the recall movement, pledging to work with the California Governor on several major policy areas (Brooks). Other prominent state Democrats and surrogates have argued that even if a recall election is held, Newsom should be safe as the incumbent remains popular among Democrats (Bidar and Navarro).
On the Republican side, it was reported last week that ex-President Donald Trump (R) was potentially interested in jumping into the recall movement. In particular, Trump is reportedly interested in the recall's second question (Who replaces Gov. Newsom if recalled?), as only a plurality is needed for a winner to become the next governor if a majority of voters choose to end Newsom's term early. However, it has also been speculated that Trump could hurt the recall movement, as the ex-President is unpopular in California, evident by his 30% loss in both presidential elections (Isenstadt; Ting). Furthermore, many of Trump's prominent donors and supporters from across the country have jumped into the movement, helping raise funds to support the recall drive (Isenstadt). A Los Angeles Times piece from January 23rd reported that the recall movement has received support from far-right QAnon-suporting groups, the militia movement, and anti-science (and -vaxx) movements, while acknowledging that most who support the movement are not from that fringe (Chabria and St. John).
Polling: Per a poll conducted by UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies, Governor Newsom's approval rating has seen a significant drop in the last few months, resting at 46% in January. By comparison, his September (prior to the "French Laundry" controversy) approval rating was 64% (Manchester). The same institution also polled the recall movement's popularity, finding support to be around 36% and opposition to it around 45%, with the rest undecided (Manchester). The group of undecideds includes 20% of Democrats and 28% who are non-affiliated, which could be a reflection that these voters are waiting to see whether the recall movement actually makes it to the ballot (Sager).
Works Cited:
@rpyers. "Police cars revolving lightProponents of the Newsom recall submitted a cumulative total of 1,094,457 signatures through 2/5, w/ counties processing 798,310 signatures, finding 130,108 invalid, and 668,202 valid. (83.7%). Proponents have until 3/17 to submit 1,495,709 valid sigs.
https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/recalls/cumulative-newsom-heatlie.pdf." Twitter, 19 Feb. 2021, 4:18pm, twitter.com/rpyers/status/1362919465709490177. Accessed 20 Feb. 2021.
Bidar, Musadiq, and Aaron Navarro. "Recall threats are common in California. But the latest one against Gavin Newsom might get further than most." CBS News, 2 Feb. 2021, www.cbsnews.com/news/gavin-newsom-recall-california-governor/. Accessed 21 Feb. 2021.
Brooks, Eric. "President Biden backs Gov. Newsom as support for recall builds." KCBS Radio, 9 Feb. 2021, www.radio.com/kcbsradio/news/state/biden-voices-support-for-newsom-as-support-for-recall-builds. Accessed 21 Feb. 2021.
Brooks, Eric, and Doug Sovern. "Cox aims for second shot to be California's governor." KCBS Radio, 11 Feb. 2021, www.radio.com/kcbsradio/news/politics/cox-aims-for-second-shot-to-be-californias-governor. Accessed 21 Feb. 2021.
---. "Republican Faulconer makes case to unseat Gov. Newsom: 'You have to have transparency'." KCBS Radio, 2 Feb. 2021, www.radio.com/kcbsradio/news/state/republican-faulconer-makes-case-to-unseat-gov-newsom. Accessed 21 Feb. 2021.
Chabria, Antia, and Paige St. John. "Far-right movements including QAnon, virus skeptics linked to Newsom recall." Los Angeles Times, 23 Jan. 2021, www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-23/recall-newsom-effort-qanon-antivaxxer-extremist-ties. Accessed 21 Feb. 2021.
Isenstadt, Alex. "Big Trump donors converge on Newsom recall." Politico, 5 Feb. 2021, www.politico.com/news/2021/02/05/gavin-newsom-recall-donors-466069. Accessed 21 Feb. 2021.
Manchester, Julia. "Governors in hot water over their coronavirus response." The Hill, 20 Feb. 2021, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/539665-governors-in-hot-water-over-their-coronavirus-response. Accessed 21 Feb. 2021.
Sager, Rebekah. "Newsom recall effort close to the 1.5M signatures needed to be on the ballot." KCBS Radio, 11 Feb. 2021, www.radio.com/kcbsradio/news/state/efforts-to-recall-newsom-close-to-the-1-5m-signatures-needed. Accessed 21 Feb. 2021.
Ting, Eric. "Report: Trump may get involved in Gavin Newsom recall election." SFGate, 18 Feb. 2021, www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Trump-California-recall-Gavin-Newsom-campaign-2021-15960341.php. Accessed 21 Feb. 2021.
Nathan Parmeter
Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record
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