Alaska and 2021's Other Gubernatorial Recall Movement

Alaska and 2021's Other Gubernatorial Recall Movement

Introduction: Since January, I have created two posts about the California Gubernatorial recall movement, which just reached the required number of verified signatures to make it onto the ballot this year (Cunningham). Something I had not heard about until a week or so is that 2021 may witness a second gubernatorial recall election, which would be a first in American politics. And like the movement against California's Governor, this recall movement is against a Governor first elected in 2018. Since the title has already spoiled, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy (R) is currently facing a recall movement that is likely to make it to the ballot this year. Today's post will be brief, but will cover the background behind Governor Dunleavy's tenure as governor and the recall movement against him. 

2018 Gubernatorial Election: In 2014, Bill Walker (I) was narrowly elected as the new Governor of Alaska over incumbent Gov. Sean Parnell (R), who in turn had taken over when ex-VPOTUS nominee Sarah Palin (R) resigned. Upon winning, Walker became the only nonpartisan governor in the country at the time, but this did not mean he was more liked than governors belonging to a political party. By 2018, his reputation and approval rating were weak, mainly due to controversy over him cutting money from the state's oil tax-funded Permanent Fund Dividend, a universal basic income program (Scott). At the same time, the lack of other state taxes to fund that and other programs made the fiscal situation more bleak, and failed efforts by the Walker administration to enact such taxes further sunk his reputation (Greenblatt). Despite this, Gov. Walker decided to try for another term in Juneau, although his path there was more complicated than in 2014. While then-State Legislator Mike Dunleavy (R) ran as the main conservative opponent to Walker, the center-to-left voter bloc (which Walker had originally won with) was complicated by the nomination of ex-Senator Mark Begich (D), thus creating a three-way race (Scott). In October, realizing that the split field and his unpopularity were too much, Walker ended his campaign and endorsed Begich, which also caused Democratic campaign institutions to fall behind the ex-Senator and Anchorage Mayor (Strauss). Despite hopes that Begich had a realistic chance of winning the election due to close polling (Brooks, "After Walker"), Dunleavy won the governorship with a 7% win ("Alaska Governor"). 

Governor Dunleavy's Tenure and Controversial Actions: One of Governor Dunleavy's signature campaign promises was reversing ex-Governor Walker's cuts to the Permanent Fund Dividend. While that was achieved that within a short time of entering office, it came at a significant cost; massive cuts to state-funded public services, including the university system, the social safety net, and the public ferry network. However, his budget plans were opposed by a broad coalition in the state legislature, leading to increased tension between the governor and the legislature. This was made more serious by Dunleavy vetoing many legislative proposals, which require a 3/4ths legislative majority to overcome. Meanwhile, the state began to feel negative effects from the budget cuts, including both rural and impoverished communities and the major urban centers. While the budget cuts were the most controversial actions taken by the Dunleavy administration, other decisions were just as controversial. A major flashpoint was over a letter the Governor's office sent to lower-level state public servants asking them to affirm loyalty to the administration or resign. Activists also cited Dunleavy's vetoing of a bill funding "elective abortions" through the state's court system (Kaufman). 

Alaska Recall Rules and the Recall Movement: Any recall movement against an Alaskan statewide official or legislator must cite specific reasons for recalling an official, which includes "lack of fitness," "incompetence," "neglect of duties," and "corruption." In parallel to California, Alaska requires that a successful recall application must be signed by 10% of the voters who participated in the last election.  However, a major difference is that the application round must be successful in order for the actual petition to be circulated. If that point is reached, the petition must gain signatures worth 25% of voters in the last election. Timewide, a recall application cannot be filed against an elected official until they have completed at least 120 days of their term and/or within 180 of the official being recalled ending their current term. After being reviewed and certified to be in compliance with all rules by state institutions, a special recall election is announced and planned-for, which must take place between 60 and 90 days after being certified. If a regularly-scheduled primary or general election falls within the time period, the recall election is scheduled on that date. Unlike California, there is only one question on an Alaskan recall ballot, which is whether to recall the official subject to the recall. ("STATE OF ALASKA," 4-9). If the Governor is recalled, the Lieutenant Governor ascends to the position to finish the recalled Governor's term ("STATE OF ALASKA," 11); for other positions, filling vacancies is subject to other laws ("STATE OF ALASKA," 8). 

In the Summer of 2019, a recall application began to be circulated by Recall Dunleavy to Alaska voters, which questioned his fitness based on the budget cuts, the abortion funding controversy, a Facebook campaign he had started in response to the budget cuts fight that targeted lawmakers opposed to him, and his action of mistakenly vetoing another bill (Kaufman). Later that year, the petition was taken to the courts by the Dunleavy administration; although it was declared null and invalid, the proponents sent it to the Court of Appeals, who reversed the decision. The petition soon gained more signatures than required, and led to the Governor and his allies submitting rebuttals against the movement (Kaufman). By January, the recall movement had obtained around 50,000 of the 71,000 signatures required to initiate a recall election, and was pushing hard to put the total number over the finish line, as there is no deadline to turn in the signatures (Thiessen). In March, Governor Dunleavy acknowledged that he will face a recall election this year while continuing to provide rebuttals ("Dunleavy asked"). 

Conclusion: If the recall movement against Governor Dunleavy makes it to the ballot, 2021 will be the first time ever that two gubernatorial recall elections have taken place in the same year, and the fifth overall. As noted in my initial post on the recall movement against California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), only three have taken place before 2021. The first was in 1921, when North Dakota Governor Lynn Frasier (R) was recalled. Over 80 years passed before the next gubernatorial recall election occurred, that one being the famous 2003 California recall that saw Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) go from a movie actor to the Governor of the Golden State. The most recent one took place in 2012, when Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (R) was subject to a highly-followed recall election by opposition to his policies targeting public unions. Despite intense Democratic efforts to unseat Walker, the incumbent governor survived as the race became nationalized, and attracted a just-as-powerful Republican effort to protect him (Kaufman). 

Despite the coincidence that two gubernatorial recall elections will likely take place in the same year, there are no likely clear implications of this because both recall movements are occurring in two different states, with differing politics, recall election institutions, populaces, and governors. Yet, the presence of two gubernatorial recall elections in the same year will likely make 2021 an interesting year for election results, especially considering 2021 is normally an off-year with no Federal-level elections (save specials) and only two regular gubernatorial elections. 

Works Cited: 

"Alaska governor election results 2018." CNN, last modified 21 Dec. 2018, www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/alaska/governor. Accessed 28 Apr. 2021. 

Brooks, James. "After Walker quits, governor race now ‘down to the wire’" Juneau Empire, 23 Oct. 2018, www.juneauempire.com/news/after-walker-quits-governor-race-now-down-to-the-wire/. Accessed 28 Apr. 2021. 

---. "Recall campaign against Alaska Gov. Dunleavy approaches threshold needed to call for a statewide vote, backers say." Anchorage Daily News, 21 Feb. 2021, www.adn.com/politics/2021/02/21/recall-campaign-against-alaska-gov-dunleavy-approaches-threshhold-needed-to-call-for-a-statewide-vote/. Accessed 28 Apr. 2021. 

Cunningham, Meg. "Effort to recall California governor has enough signatures to trigger election." ABC News, 26 Apr. 2021, abcnews.go.com/Politics/effort-recall-california-governor-signatures-trigger-election/story?id=77328934. Accessed 28 Apr. 2021. 

"Dunleavy asked about election plans on Action Line, he expects recall election to happen this summer." KINY Radio, 18 Mar. 2021, www.kinyradio.com/news/news-of-the-north/dunleavy-asked-about-election-plans-on-action-line-he-expects-recall-election-to-happen-this-summer/. Accessed 24 Apr. 2021. 

Greenblatt, Alan. "Why Don't Alaska Governors Last Longer Than One Term?" Governing Magazine, 17 Dec. 2018, www.governing.com/archive/gov-alaska-governor-election-churn.html. Accessed 29 Apr. 2021. 

Kaufman, Dan. "Why Alaskans Are Trying to Recall Their Governor." The New Yorker, 5 Mar. 2021, www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/why-alaskans-are-trying-to-recall-their-governor. Accessed 28 Apr. 2021. 

Scott, Dylan. "2018’s most fascinating governor’s election, explained." Vox, 21 Aug. 2018, www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/20/17705204/primary-elections-2018-alaska-governor-bill-walker-mark-begich-mike-dunleavy. Accessed 29 Apr. 2021. 

"STATE OF ALASKA, DIVISION OF ELECTIONS PUBLIC INFORMATION PACKET ON RECALL OF A STATE OFFICIAL." Alaska Division of Elections, last modified 11 Feb. 2019, www.elections.alaska.gov/doc/forms/H31.pdf. Accessed 29 Apr. 2021. 

Strauss, Daniel. "Alaska governor's race turned upside down by incumbent's late dropout." Politico, 25 Oct. 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/10/25/alaska-governors-race-2018-937913. Accessed 29 Apr. 2021. 

Thiessen, Mark. "Alaska governor recall group makes final push for signatures." Anchorage Daily News, 19 Jan. 2021, www.adn.com/politics/2021/01/20/alaska-governor-recall-group-makes-final-push-for-signatures/. Accessed 2 May 2021. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record