A Rundown of the 2020 House Primaries: Incumbent Defeats and Close Renominations

Author's Note: Since starting this blog in June, I have covered the 2020 House primaries on multiple occasions, noting races featuring incumbents with the potential to either lose their primary or face a competitive renomination. With all of the regular Congressional primaries over, I compiled a list of all of the House incumbent primary defeats and close renominations. As can be seen, I had this article ready for a long time, but planned to publish it after the Sept. 15th Delaware primary (the last of the season, exempting Louisiana's unique "jungle primary" on election day) ("2020 State"). 

     9/20/2020 UPDATE: I updated this page to mention incumbent Representative Yvette Clarke (D, NY-9), whose primary race was originally not included here, but who won their House primary by less than 30%, thus qualifying to be on the "close renominations" section. I also edited and updated the number of total close renominations (< 30.00% winning margin) throughout the article to reflect this change. 

A Rundown of the 2020 House Primaries: Incumbent Defeats and Close Renominations

Introduction: In one of this blog's first posts, I discussed the increased relevance of House primaries in political discourse as a result of several recent high-profile incumbent primary defeats. Such relevance has increased partially because of the progressive movement's recent surge to knock out Democratic incumbents and replace them with younger progressives. Despite such hype, most primary challenges against incumbents do not succeed, or even come close enough to cause significant headaches for the incumbent being challenged. Earlier in the cycle, Sabato's Crystal Ball contributor J. Miles Coleman noted the higher-than-normal number of primary defeats in the 2020 cycle (prior to Kansas and Missouri's primaries), but found that most of the incumbent primary defeats were for specific reasons (Coleman). Most recently, a Politico article noted that the number of primary defeats (8) is the highest for a non-redistricting year since 1974 (Fineout). Nonetheless, what incumbent defeats and close renominations that do occur can have significant implications for national politics, intra-party politics, and future primary elections. 

Methodology: Below, I explore all of the incumbent primary defeats that occurred in the 2020 House cycle, and cases where an incumbent won re-nomination by a margin of less than 30%. While all races falling within the latter category will be covered, greater attention will be given to races that received extensive coverage before the primary and/or were "closer than expected" in the end. Races under a "two-stage runoff" system are counted if the incumbent won re-nomination by less than 30%, regardless of being renominated in the first stage or the top-two primary runoff. However, "jungle primary" results with a top-two general election (in CA and WA) are not counted here unless an incumbent placed third place or lower in the jungle primary. In 2020, no incumbent in either state placed lower than second place, and are thus not included here. 

Election Data Collection: All election results presented for each race came from Politico's 2020 primary results site ("Election Results 2020"). The exception is Rep. Denver Riggleman (R, VA-5)'s party convention, where the result was not available from the Politico results site, and was taken from an unrelated news article. In the 2020 cycle, 8 House incumbents (3 Democrats and 5 Republicans) lost their primaries, and another 14 (10 Democrats and 4 Republicans) won re-nomination by less than a 30% margin. 

2020 House Incumbent Primary Defeats:

• Rep. Dan Lipinski (D, IL-3) (lost to Marie Newman, 44.6% to 47.3%): In 2018, (relatively) conservative Democratic Representative Dan Lipinski won a narrow victory over progressive challenger Marie Newman (Kindik 2019, "House 2020"). In 2020, Newman decided to rematch the incumbent, this time claiming victory by a small margin (Ackley). Prior to his defeat, Lipinski was one of the most conservative House Democrats, being one of three remaining in the 115th Congress who voted against the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The others were Massachusetts' Stephen Lynch (D, MA-8) and Minnesota's Collin Peterson (D, MN-7) (Kondik, "The House: Where"). 
• Rep. Steve King (R, IA-4) (lost to Randy Feenstra, 36.0% to 45.7%): During the 2018 cycle, Rep. Steve King of NW Iowa made several controversial racial comments and statements, causing him to be stripped of House committee positions, and almost losing the general election to Democrat J.D. Scholten (Masters). Going into the 2020 primary cycle, Rep. King faced significant pushback from establishment Republicans over said comments, with prominent Republicans backing primary challenger Randy Feenstra. Feenstra eventually won the primary, arguing that he would more effectively represent the district (Sprunt).
• Rep. Denver Riggleman (R, VA-5) (lost to Bob Good, 42% to 58%): As the 2020 election cycle progressed, news reports emerged that freshman Representative Denver Riggleman had officiated a same-sex wedding, an act speculated by pundits would hurt him in the rural VA-5 district anchored by Charlottesville. Good won the nomination in a controversial way, as the Virginia Republican party chose to host a "drive-by convention" rather than a traditional primary. Riggleman criticized this move, accusing the party of taking this step to give an unfair advantage to Good (Mutnick). Out of 2020's incumbents who lost their primaries, Riggleman suffered the worst losing margin of all, losing to Good by 16%. 
• Rep. Eliot Engel (D, NY-16) (lost to Jamaal Bowman, 40.6% to 55.4%): A longtime incumbent from The Bronx and Westchester County, Foreign Affairs chair Engel faced a serious challenge in 2020. His opponent, former school principal Jamaal Bowman, gained significant attention in the closing weeks, racking up a plethora of progressive endorsements, as well even as The New York Times (Wilson). Bowman defeated Engel by 15%, winning just over 55% of the vote ("New York Primary Results"). Pundits have speculated that while Bowman's identity and the progressive wave was a major factor behind his victory, Engel's shortcomings in the lead-up to the primary (such as not actively connecting to the community) were a more likely culprit (Marans, "Jamaal"). 
• Rep. Scott Tipton (R, CO-03) (lost to Lauren Boebert, 45.4% to 54.6%): Rep. Tipton of Colorado's western slope suffered an unexpected loss when QAnon supporter and business owner Lauren Boebert won the Republican primary (Axelrod). Boebert's controversial views have caused some pundits to rate CO-3's general election as more competitive, particularly considering its Republican tilt being slight and the fact that Democrats have held the seat as late as 2010 (Murray). 
• Rep. Steve Watkins (R, KS-2) (lost to Jake LaTurner, 33.9% to 49.2%): Even before being first elected to the moderately-red seat spanning north-south across Kansas in 2018, the Kansas GOP establishment was uneasy about Watkins. From the moment of winning his 2018 primary and throughout his first term, Watkins faced multiple controversies, including allegations of not living in Kansas until running for the seat, exaggerating his military background, and meeting with Kansas Democratic officials to run as a Democrat before running as a Republican in 2018 (Lowry). The final blow occurred when the incumbent was arrested and charged with multiple counts of voting fraud during the 2020 primary cycle (Brunner). This scandal hurt Watkins badly, causing establishment-backed challenger and ex-Kansas State Treasurer Jake LaTurner to surge on primary night and deny Watkins a renomination (Itkowitz and Weigel). 
• Rep. Lacy Clay (D, MO-1) (lost to Cori Bush, 45.5% to 48.6%): Like Lipinski, incumbent Representative Clay also faced a rematch with their 2018 challenger, in this case, activist Cori Bush. In her second campaign for the seat, Bush's campaign operation was reportedly stronger, and as noted in a previous post on this blog, could have been boosted by the post-George Floyd resurgence of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement (Otterbein and Thompson). Bush has been extensively involved in BLM since the beginning, and was very active in the last two months going into the primary (Marans, "Cori"). Clay's defeat was considered an upset, particularly considering that Decision Desk HQ projected the race for Clay prior to the last batch of votes flipping the race (Panetta and Seddiq). Should she win the November election, Bush will be the first non-Clay Democrat to represent the district since the 1960s; Clay's father previously held the seat and founded the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) (Murphy). 
• Rep. Ross Spano (R, FL-15) (lost to Scott Franklin, 48.8% to 51.2%): Rep. Spano was a first-time Representative in a moderately-red district spanning I-4 from outer Tampa to Lakeland. Long before the primaries began, Rep. Spano was considered vulnerable due to a campaign finance scandal. Specifically, Spano was alleged to have borrowed money from acquaintances in amounts above the legal limit (Newborn). His opponent was Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin, who received a notable endorsement from prominent Freedom Caucus member Rep. Matt Gaetz (R, FL-1). In the last few weeks prior to the primary, this race received increased attention, including Spano receiving endorsements from prominent Republicans ("Rep. Matt"). This may not have been enough, as Rep. Spano lost to Franklin by 3 points on primary day (Akin). Rep. Spano is the third freshman House member to lose a renomination primary during the 2020 cycle, along with Reps. Watkins and Riggleman. 

2020 Close House Incumbent Primary Renominations:

• Rep. Bill Foster (D, IL-11) (won 58.7% to 41.3%): Representative Foster's district encompasses a portion of suburban Chicagoland. In 2020, his opponent was progressive Will County Boardmember Rachel Ventura, who advocated for a broad array of progressive policies, including Medicare-for-All and the Green New Deal (Farver). On Primary Day, Foster won re-nomination over Ventura by a relatively narrow 16%, winning 58% of the vote ("Illinois Primary," 2020). This close renomination is notable and surprising because two years earlier, Foster faced no opposition to his 2018 renomination ("Illinois Election Results 2018"). 
• Rep. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) (won 51.8% to 48.2%): In one of 2020's most-watched House primary battles, Blue Dog Representative Cuellar was challenged by young progressive Hispanic candidate Jessica Cisneros in a majority-minority South Texas district. Cisneros was backed by several major progressive surrogates, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14) and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and was hoping to replicate Ocasio-Cortez's 2018 success against Cuellar. Despite the progressive energy the 26-year old Cisneros was riding on, Rep. Cuellar narrowly won another nomination (Brufke). Out of all incumbent House members, Rep. Cuellar ended up with the closest primary win for an incumbent, winning by 3.6%.  
• Rep. Kay Granger (R, TX-12) (won 57.9% to 42.1%): Based in the Fort Worth area of Texas, longtime Republican Representative Granger (the ranking member on the House Appropriations Committee) was challenged by local councilmember Chris Putnam. Despite being backed by the Club for Growth, Granger beat back Putnam's challenge (Bowman). Between all of the close Republican primary challenges on this list, Granger's was the closest, with a 16% margin. 
• Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1) (won 60.4% to 39.6%): In this purple suburban Philadelphia seat, moderate Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick won his primary by less than 30% in 2020 (Muschick). 
• Rep. David Scott (D, GA-13) (won 51.9% to 26.4%): Blue Dog African-American Representative David Scott's district spans southern and western portions of suburban Atlanta. Prior to the House primary season initiating, Kondik had included Representative Scott as a Democrat likely to face a challenge due to his moderate record (Kondik, "House 2020"). Running against two other candidates, he won re-nomination with 52% of the primary vote, enough to avoid a runoff ("Georgia Primary"). To be nominated, Georgia primary candidates must either receive a majority in the primary election, or place in the top two and win a runoff if no candidate receives a majority ("Primary Elections"). 
• Rep. Yvette Clarke (D, NY-9) (won 54.4% to 24.6%): In 2018, African-American Brooklyn Representative Yvette Clarke came very close to losing renomination to Adem Bunkeddeko, who decided to rematch Clarke in 2020 (Panetta). However, the 2020 also featured three other primary challengers, including an army veteran further left than Bunkeddeko and a socially-conservative Democrat (Ngo). Initially, Clarke won a wide victory over their challengers, a massive improvement from the 53% that the incumbent won in 2018 (Panetta). The final results showed Clarke with 54.4%, and the second-place challenger (Bunkeddeko) at 24.6% ("New York Primary Results"). 
• Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D, NY-12) (won 43.0% to 39.3%): In 2018, Rep. Carolyn Maloney's primary race became competitive, as she won 59% to progressive challenger Suraj Patel's 40% (Mihaly, "Carolyn"). Two years later, Patel rematched Maloney, with several other challengers also vying to unseat the incumbent (Durkin). The initial results indicated Maloney leading slightly, but the race remained unprojected for weeks because of difficulties in counting the large number of mail-in ballots, something the state was not prepared for (Campanile). The counting process became controversial when a number of ballots were disqualified by officials, which the Patel campaign challenged (Brand). In the end, the certified results in early August resulted in Maloney winning by 4%, although Patel still refused to concede (Mihaly, "Carolyn"). Out of all House incumbents who won re-nomination in 2020, Rep. Maloney was the only one who was re-nominated without a majority of the vote. 
• Rep. Fred Upton (R, MI-6) (won 62.5% to 37.5%): Representing Southwestern Michigan (including Kalamazoo), Rep. Upton is one of the few "moderate" Republicans still in the House (Bikales). While he won re-nomination to his red-leaning district, Upton received a primary challenge that proved significant in the end as he won another nomination by 25% ("Michigan Primary"). 
• Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D, AZ-1) (won 58.9% to 41.1%): Spanning Northern Arizona, including multiple Native American nations and Flagstaff, this district in general elections has been purple in recent cycles, voting narrowly for Trump in 2016. The incumbent, Rep. Tom O'Halleran, is a moderate Blue Dog Democrat, and faced a primary challenge from progressive Eva Putzova, a Slovakian immigrant and energy activist (Aleshire). Putzova performed relatively well in the primary, keeping O'Halleran's vote share under 60% and the margin under 20% ("2020 Arizona").
• Rep. Paul Gosar (R, AZ-5) (won 62.9% to 37.1%): This large district based in Northwest Arizona is very conservative, being represented by Representative Dr. Paul Gosar, who has been controversial for his antigovernmental views (Connolly; Forgey). In 2018, Gosar gained attention when several of his siblings spoke out against him, advising citizens to vote for the Democrat running against him (Forgey). When the 2020 primary results were fully-counted, Gosar was leading by less than 30% to challenger Anne Ward, thus making it onto this list (Mihaly, "Arizona Rep."). 
• Rep. Jim Cooper (D, TN-5) (won 57.2% to 39.8%): A longtime incumbent representing a Nashville-based Democratic district, Representative Cooper faced a primary challenge from public defender Keeda Haynes, who had previously been convicted on felony drug charges. Haynes has since maintained her innocence in the case and made criminal justice reform a central part of her platform (Hale). The final result was seen as surprising, as Cooper won by 17%, and because the race received relatively little attention (Jeong). 
• Rep. Ilhan Omar (D, MN-5) (won 58.2% to 38.5%): First elected in 2018, Rep. Omar is one of two female Muslims in Congress, along with Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D, MI-13), and was a member of the "Trump Squad" (along with Tlaib, Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D, MA-6), and Rep. Alexandria-Ocaiso-Cortez (D, NY-14)) (Foran and Kreig). Rep. Omar's first term in the House was controversial due to her views on Israel. As such, lawyer Antone Melton-Meaux jumped into the primary to challenge her, arguing that her focus on anti-Trump rhetoric and "Trump Squad" was out-of-touch with the district . In the lead-up to the primary, Rep. Omar received a significant endorsement from Speaker Pelosi (D, CA-12) (Cohen). In the end, Omar won her second nomination, making her primary renomination the closest of the "Trump Squad" members (note that "Trump Squad" member Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D, MA-7) did not face a primary opponent) (Foran and Kreig). 
• Rep. Al Lawson (D, FL-5) (won 55.7% to 25.9%): In 2018, Northern Florida African-American Democrat Rep. Al Lawson faced a somewhat-competitive renomination, as he won by 20% (Cook, 73). In 2020, Rep. Lawson faced another significant primary challenge from two progressive candidates, who both accused the incumbent of being too friendly to special interests (Bauerlein). In the end, Rep. Lawson won re-nomination with 55% of the vote and by just under a 30% margin. 
• Rep. Richard Neal (D, MA-1) (won 58.8% to 41.2%): Other than Rep. Clay's primary, Ways and Means Chair Neal's race was probably the most-watched House primary in the post-New York environment (Jagoda). Much of the attention was due to his opponent Alex Morse's background as a young mayor who had first held office at 21, and him challenging the longtime incumbent with a progressive agenda (Cote). The race was significantly scrambled in early August due to sudden allegations of sexual assault against Morse, which became more attention-grabbing when Morse began to allege political motivations behind the accusations (DeCosta-Kilpa). Despite this significant event, Neal won another term against Morse's energetic campaign (Stewart). 

Analysis and Future Implications: On the Democratic side, the overarching theme behind their cases of incumbent primary defeats and close renominations is clear. Like 2018, the incumbents on this list comprise relatively older (and longtime) mainstream liberals or moderates being challenged by progressives (Rep. Omar is the exception), most of them young and of diverse backgrounds. In particular, as noted on a previous post, this trend has likely been significantly amplified by the resurgence of Black Lives Matter in the post-George Floyd environment. In the 2020 House primary cycle, 2 of the 3 Democratic incumbent primary defeats and 8 of the 10 competitive incumbent Democratic renominations occurred post-George Floyd (including Rep. Omar's). This is not to imply that the events surrounding George Floyd's death directly led to these results, but it seems likely that the reaction to a one-time event (Floyd's death) amplified some of these challengers. Whether or not 2020 is the peak of the progressive insurgency against House incumbents remains to be seen, but it is fair to say that it likely hasn't reached its peak. In particular, the diversification of both America and the Democratic Party, especially among younger voters, will likely continue to become more important and critical in the next cycle as these groups of voters increase their participation and voting rates. 

On the Republican side, there does not appear to be an overarching theme among 2020's primary defeats. Instead, each incumbent who lost re-nomination lost for reasons specific to the race, incumbent, and/or the successful challenger. Representatives Riggleman and Tipton were arguably the only ones who lost ideological-based battles, as both faced challengers who were either more politically conservative or criticized one or more aspects of the incumbent's record and/or ideology. Meanwhile, Representatives King and Watkins went down due to major scandals or controversies which caused the party establishment to support their primary opponents and/or sideline them. Of note is Watkins, who was already controversial prior to his primary, but was likely defeated as a result of a late-hour scandal comprising his arrest and legal charges of voter fraud. Representative Spano also faced a significant scandal going into their primary, but unlike the other two, the Republican establishment continued to support them, as noted prior. Other than these members, no other Republican incumbents won renomination by less than 15%. These results seem to indicate that House Republican Party cohesion is strong in the Trump environment, particularly as Republican Congressional support for the president increases. 

Primary Election Results: 

"Election Results 2020." Politico, www.politico.com/2020-election/results/. Accessed 12 Sept. 2020. 

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Murray, Jon. "Shooters Grill owner Lauren Boebert knocks off U.S. Rep. Scott Tipton in GOP primary." The Denver Post, 30 Jun. 2020, www.denverpost.com/2020/06/30/scott-tipton-3rd-congressional-primary/. Accessed 2 Jul. 2020. 

Muschick, Paul. "Room for moderates: Pennsylvania race shows Republicans don’t have to blindly support Trump to win." The Morning Call, 9 Jun. 2020, www.mcall.com/opinion/mc-opi-rep-brian-fitzpatrick-2020-primary-muschick-20200609-w3zzw52nbveqje2hbv4t4kfcfu-story.html. Accessed 12 Sept. 2020. 

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Sprunt, Barbara. "Iowa Rep. Steve King, Known for Racist Comments, Loses Reelection Bid." National Public Radio, 3 Jun. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/06/03/865823546/iowa-rep-steve-king-ousted-in-gop-primary-ap-projects. Accessed 16 Jun. 2020. 

Stewart, Emily. "Richard Neal, one of the most powerful Democrats in Congress, fends off primary challenge." Vox, 1 Sept. 2020, www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/9/1/21409160/richard-neal-wins-massachusetts-democratic-primary-alex-morse. Accessed 14 Sept. 2020. 

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     Nathan Parmeter

     Host and Author, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record