The Remaining Federal Races without a projected winner

The Remaining Federal Races without a projected winner

Introduction: At this moment, 16 days have passed since polls closed on the 2020 Federal elections here in the United States, and like most election cycles, there are still some races without a projected winner. Today's post will briefly go over which elections do not have a projected winner as of publication time (8pm PST on 11/19/2020), most of which are either still counting ballots or are awaiting the results of post-election procedures (e.g. recounts). 

Senate:

• Georgia Senate (both): As detailed in Sunday's post, the final results, including the winners of Georgia's two Senate races, await the January 5th, 2021 runoffs. 

House: Like with Georgia's electoral votes, there are several House races that are projected by some outlets but not by all. The ones listed below do not have a projected winner by any major outlet as of publication time (9pm PST on 11/19/2020). 

• California 21: During the last House cycle, Democrat T.J. Cox narrowly flipped this normally heavily-Democratic seat after news outlets had initially projected Republican incumbent David Valadao the winner based on election night returns ((Rakich; White)). This flip occurred because of the previously-discussed "blue shift" effect where mail ballots skewed more Democratic because their voting groups (e.g. students, working-class people) are more likely to vote-by-mail. In this year's rematch, Valadao is currently leading by just over 1% and 1,800 votes, with ballots still being counted throughout the district (@rpyers, "Fresno County"). 
• California 25: In one of the most-watched House races of the year because of its recent background, this election was a rematch from the June special election that witnessed Republican Mike Garcia flip back this suburban seat after it initially flipped from red to blue in 2018. However, 2018 freshman winner Katie Hill (D) was forced to resign due to a major scandal that surfaced in October 2019. Democrat Christy Smith is currently trailing Garcia by less than 500 votes (Kisken). Around 65,000 votes remain in Los Angeles County (part of which is in CA-25), and several hundred more in the district's portion of Ventura County (@rpyers, "L.A. County"). 
• Iowa 2: This open seat is likely to be the closest House race of the year in terms of raw votes, and possibly one of the closest in a while. At the time of this article's publication, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks (try saying it 10 times fast) is leading by 47 votes against Democrat Rita Hart. Hart's campaign requested a district-wide machine recount, which began several days ago, and could take until the end of the month to conduct (Gruber-Miller). 
• Louisiana 5: In similarity to Georgia, Louisiana requires a candidate to receive a majority either in the November "jungle primary" or a runoff to win (similar to Georgia's special election). In this open seat race, no candidate achieved that threshold, resulting in Republicans Lance Harris and Luke Letlow heading to the December 5th runoff (Hilburn). Partisanship-wise, this seat will be a Republican hold regardless of the runoff result. 
• New York 22: In my last post prior to Election Day, I identified 2018 freshman Anthony Brindisi (D) as a race to closely watch due to his narrow 2018 winning margin and him sitting in a very Republican seat. In another 2018 rematch, Brindisi is facing ex-Representative Claudia Tenney (R), whom he narrowly defeated two years ago. A few hours ago, a significant release of ballot results from one county narrowed Tenney's lead to an estimated 75 votes, with additional ballots left to count throughout the district (@Redistrict, "BREAKING"). Since, that estimate has been modified to a 106 vote margin in Tenney's favor (@Redistrict, "New"). 

Works Cited:

Gruber-Miller, Stephen. "'A great opportunity in democracy': Recount begins in Iowa 2nd Congressional District race." Des Moines Register, 17 Nov. 2020, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/17/iowa-congressional-race-between-rita-hart-mariannette-miller-meeks-recounts-begin/6319326002/. Accessed 19 Nov. 2020. 

Hilburn, Greg. "Fellow Republicans Lance Harris, Luke Letlow launch attacks in Louisiana congressional race." Monroe News-Star, 18 Nov. 2020, www.thenewsstar.com/story/news/2020/11/18/republicans-lance-harris-luke-letlow-launch-attacks-louisiana-congressional-race/6337940002/. Accessed 19 Nov. 2020. 

Kisken, Tom. "25th Congressional District election results: Republican Garcia leads Smith by 422 votes." Ventura County Star, 17 Nov. 2020, www.vcstar.com/story/news/local/2020/11/17/mike-garcia-christy-smith-stay-near-tie-25th-congressional-district/6310599002/. Accessed 19 Nov. 2020. 

Rakich, Nathaniel. "The Last Unresolved House Race Of 2018." FiveThirtyEight, 27 Nov. 2018, fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-last-unresolved-house-race-of-2018/. Accessed 19 Nov. 2020. 

White, Jeremy. "Dems flip another California district after Valadao concedes." Politico, 6 Dec. 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/12/06/tj-cox-wins-california-house-21-1025859. Accessed 19 Nov. 2020. 

@Redistrict. "BREAKING: source in #NY22 just relayed the Chenango Co. absentee/affidavit/overseas totals...Brindisi (D) 3,290 (64.6%) Tenney (R) 1,448 (28.4%) Per source, Claudia Tenney (R)'s #NY22 lead is now just *75 votes* and it's unclear what other ballots remain." Twitter, 19 Nov. 2020, 1:11pm, twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329532743122882563. 

---. "New: after conferring w/ all #NY22 sources, here's my latest count...Tenney (R) 155,412 Brindisi (D) 155,306 That's a margin of *106 votes,* and it's unclear what remains outstanding. Some ballots under challenge are included in this count, and totals are subject to change." Twitter, 19 Nov. 2020, 2:41pm, twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329555520311660546. 

@rpyers. "Fresno County updates, adding 529 votes in #CA21 that break 50.85%/49.15% for incumbent Democrat @TJCoxCongress, cutting Republican @dgvaladao's lead down by 9 votes to a new lead of 1,796." Twitter, 18 Nov. 2020, 2:59pm, twitter.com/rpyers/status/1329197458174349313. 

---. "L.A. County updates in #CA25, with 2,241 votes breaking 55.96%/44.04% in FAVOR of incumbent Republican @MikeGarcia2020, extending his lead over Democrat Christy Smith by 267 votes to a new lead of 371." Twitter, 17 Nov. 2020, 2:36pm, twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328829399471333377.

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record