Potential 2020 Senate Incumbent Primary Losses

Author's Notes: Tonight's post is paired with a special announcement regarding a significant change in post publication times. Note that there will not be a post coming this coming Sunday, July 26th, as I will be prepping to move back to California the next day. 

Potential 2020 Senate Incumbent Primary Losses

Introduction: In one of the first posts created for this blog, I discussed the 2020 House primary races so far, with a focus on races where incumbents have or could face close renominations or primary defeats. At the end of that post, I indicated that I would do a similar post for the Senate primaries. Normally, Senate incumbent primary defeats are even less common than House primaries, unless an incumbent is mired in scandals, is appointed, or is of old age (Jacobson). Discounting the 2017 Alabama Special Senate election's Republican primary (where appointed incumbent Luther Strange (R) lost to controversial candidate Roy Moore (R)), the last time an incumbent Senator failed to attain renomination was in 2012, when longtime Indiana Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) lost his primary to a Tea Party conservative (Kondik, "Senate 2020"). In the 2018 cycle, no Senate challenger came within 25% of knocking out an incumbent in the primaries, which included scandal-ridden New Jersey Senator Rob Menendez (D-NJ) (Kondik, "The Primaries," 72, 86). Going in line with these trends, there are only several remaining Senate races where an incumbent could face a significant challenge or lose renomination, but such Senate races are worth discussing because of larger potential implications.

Potential Future Incumbent Senate Primary Defeats:

• Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA): Of all the incumbent Senate primaries this cycle, Massachusetts Senator Ed. Markey's has attracted the most attention, as it pits the incumbent against Congressman Joe Kennedy III (D, MA-5), grand-nephew of the Kennedy brother trio. Pundits have noted that this primary is a generational clash between the 73-year old incumbent and a 34-year old rising star, is not between mainstream liberals and progressives (as typical Democratic primary talk has been recently), as both are relatively progressive (Jacobson). Markey is liked by progressives and activists for his writing of the Green New Deal's Senate version (Jacobson), while Kennedy has gained support from progressives and establishment liberals alike (Wright). Since jumping into the race, Kennedy has embraced progressive ideas such as the Defund Police movement, and attacking Markey for past legislation such as the 1994 Crime Bill (Chabot). Recent polls have shown Kennedy significantly ahead, and reports have emerged that Markey's campaign is hoping for a last-minute reversal of this trend (Battenfeld). With this information in mind, if a Senate incumbent will go down in the remainder of this cycle, Markey will very likely be that one. Massachusetts will not host its Congressional primaries until September 1st, near the end of the cycle ("2020 State"). 
• Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA): Out of the three incumbent Senators listed here, Senator Loeffler will not face a traditional primary, as she was appointed to fill the seat of former Senator Johnny Isakson (R-GA), who resigned late last year (Scanlan). As such, Loeffler will face a special election this year, as the seat will not be up again until 2022. Georgia law mandates that for special senate elections, all candidates run in a "jungle primary" on election day, and if none get 50%, the top two advance to a runoff (similar to Louisiana's system) (Greenwood). The appointment of Loeffler to the seat was controversial among Republican figures, as Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (R) passed up other candidates for Loeffler over President Trump's wishes (Scanlan). Outspoken Freedom Caucus Representative (and Trump's preferred appointee) Doug Collins (R, GA-4) is challenging both Senator Loeffler and several Democrats for the top two spots (Coleman and Francis). Loeffler's reputation has been tainted by allegations of insider trading during the early stage of the ongoing pandemic (Coleman and Francis). This has been exasperated by her campaign being self-funded, something that Collins has used against her (Scanlan). Despite still trailing in second place, Loeffler's polling numbers have resurged in recent weeks, while Collins has led since jumping into the race (Herndon). Even if only Loeffler and Collins make the top two spots, polling shows the appointee behind the challenger (Kaplan 5). 
• Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE): In the previous Senate cycle, Senator Coon's fellow Senator Tom Carper (D-DE) faced a primary challenge that was amplified by the September victory of (now Representative) Ayanna Pressley in Massachusetts against a white male incumbent (Kondik, "Senate 2018"). Like Pressley and (also now Representative) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's primary upset earlier that year, African-American Air Force veteran Kerri Evelyn Harris ran on a progressive platform emphasizing generational change (Shepard). Despite the last-minute hype Harris's campaign received, Sen. Carper won renomination by 31% (Shepard). Fast forward another cycle, and Senator Coons is up for re-election. This time around, the challenger is Jessica Scarane, a progressive millennial running on a similar campaign to other recent progressive challengers (Gamard). I was not able to find any polling on this race, and pundits note that Coons is significantly favored (Bittle). It is notable that Sens. Carper and Coons are relatively moderate, and have been criticized by progressives for being too friendly to business interests (Shepard, Gamard). While these factors do not seem to indicate that Coons is at risk of losing renomination, the late timing of the primary, coupled with Carper's close race two years ago, does open the possibility of last-minute changes impacting the race. Delaware will be the last state to host Congressional primaries on September 15th ("2020 State"). 

Conclusion: As noted in this and previous posts, Congressional incumbents losing primaries is rare, although many challenges that succeed often receive significant attention prior to the primary. The last three regular Senate cycles (again, discounting the 2017 Alabama Special Senate election's Republican primary) have witnessed no incumbents losing, despite ex-Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) coming very close in 2014 (Kondik, "Senate 2020"). Nonetheless, this year's Senate primary conditions seem ripe for at least one primary takedown, and potentially at least one for both parties. Only waiting until they happen will we be able to see what the results are. 

Works Cited:

"2020 State Primary Election Dates." National Council of State Legislatures, 19 May 2020, www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/2020-state-primary-election-dates.aspx#Chronological. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020.  

Battenfeld, Joe. "Ed Markey losing to Joe Kennedy, needs game-changer to catch up." The Boston Herald, 25 Jun. 2020, www.bostonherald.com/2020/06/25/ed-markey-losing-to-joe-kennedy-needs-game-changer-to-catch-up/. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

Bittle, Matt. "Big money for Coons ahead of Sept. primary challenge." Delaware State News, 18 Jul. 2020, delawarestatenews.net/government/big-money-for-coons-ahead-of-sept-primary-challenge/. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

Chabot, Hillary. "Kennedy, Markey support defunding police." The Boston Herald, 8 Jun. 2020, www.bostonherald.com/2020/06/08/kennedy-markey-support-defunding-police/. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

Coleman, Miles J, and Niles Edward Francis. "States of Play: Georgia." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 9 Jul. 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-georgia/. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

Gamard, Sam. "Sen. Chris Coons faces a primary challenge from a progressive millennial. Does she have a shot?" Delaware Online, 18 Nov. 2019, www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/18/millennial-progressive-woman-primary-delaware-sen-chris-coons/2580646001/. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

Greenwood, Max. "Democrats hope for tidal moment in Georgia with two Senate seats in play." The Hill, 10 Jul. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506648-democrats-hope-for-tidal-moment-in-georgia-with-two-senate-seats-in-play. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020.

Herndon, Astead. "Republican Senators in Arizona and Georgia Have a Problem: The Base." The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/politics/kelly-loeffler-georgia-senate-arizona.html. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

Jacobson, Louis. "Markey vs. Kennedy: Welcome to the most unusual Senate primary in decades." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2 Jan. 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/markey-vs-kennedy-welcome-to-the-most-unusual-senate-primary-in-decades/. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

Kaplan, Doug. "Georgia Polling." RealClearPolitics, 2 Jul. 2020, www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Gravis_Marketing_Georgia.pdf. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

Kondik, Kyle. "Rating Changes: Electoral College and Senate." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2 Apr. 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/rating-changes-electoral-college-and-senate/. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

---. "Senate 2018: At Least for Now, the Elephant Endures." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 6 Sept. 2018, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2018-at-least-for-now-the-elephant-endures/. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

---. "Senate 2020: The Primary Challengers." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 13 Jun. 2019, /centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2020-the-primary-challengers/. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020.

---. "The Primaries of 2018." The Blue Wave, edited by Kyle Kondik, Larry Sabato, Rowman and Littlefield, 2019, 60-79. 

Kondik, Kyle, and Larry Sabato, editors. The Blue Wave. Rowman and Littlefield, 2019. 

Scanlan, Quinn. "In Georgia Senate race, Collins nets nearly $370,000 more than Loeffler in Q2 contributions." ABC News, abcnews.go.com/Politics/georgia-senate-race-collins-nets-370000-loeffler-q2/story?id=71823028. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

Shepard, Steven. "Carper fends off Delaware primary challenge." Politico, 6 Sept. 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/09/06/carper-delaware-primary-challenge-senate-810223. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

Wright, David. "Markey and Kennedy neck-and-neck in fundraising in Massachusetts Senate race." CNN, 17 Jul. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/politics/ed-markey-joe-kennedy-fundraising-massachusetts/index.html. Accessed 21 Jul. 2020. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record