Implications of the (incomplete) New York House Primary Results
Overview: June 21st's post on this blog was devoted to discussing the House primaries, with a special focus on how many potential primary defeats were possible in the remaining House primary schedule. In that post, I noted that Representative Eliot Engel (D, NY-16) was most at-risk of going down in the primaries, with Reps. Yvette Clarke (D, NY-9) and Carolyn Maloney (D, NY-12) being the next two most likely.
Former school principal Jamaal Bowman has claimed victory in NY-16's Democratic House primary, against incumbent Engel, the House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair (Murray). It is of note that the race remains uncalled (as of July 9th, 2020), although Bowman has a significant lead ("Bowman"). Furthermore, as of the time of this writing, Oversight Committee Chair Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D, NY-12) leads by 1.6% against challenger Suraj Patel, who rematched the incumbent after bringing her 2018 primary vote percentage below 60% ("New York"). On Long Island, incumbent Rep. Thomas Suozzi faced a tough renomination, but still leads 25% over the next-highest vote-getter, with almost 60% ("New York"). Another NYC committee chair, Judiciary's Jerry Nadler (D, NY-10), also faced a tough primary challenge, despite being endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14) (Gregorian).
Not all of the results were bad for Big Apple Democratic incumbents, as Rep. Clarke appears to have clinched a much easier victory this time, with over 60% of the vote, and a wide margin over the highest challenger ("New York"). In 2018, Clarke came within 6% of being defeated, which became the second-closest renomination behind Illinois Rep. Dan Lipinski (D, IL-11) (Cook 2019, 73). As discussed in the earlier post, Lipinski would later lose his 2020 renomination battle, although his challenger's winning margin was also narrow (Mutnick).
As New York City will not start counting primary absentee (mail) ballots until this coming Wednesday (Dervishi), the full results are still yet to be known. Nonetheless, the implications of what results have been made public is significant for upcoming Democratic primaries, especially those across the Hudson River from the Big Apple.
Re-Evaluating Possible Future House Primaries: Looking beyond New York, last week's article identified the following Democratic incumbents as most vulnerable to primary defeat: 1) Richard Neal (D, MA-1), 2) Stephen Lynch (D, MA-9), 3) Lacy Clay (D, MO-1), and 4) Rashida Tlaib (D, MI-13). As detailed in that post, the first three are incumbent mainstream Democrats facing young and/or progressive challenges, while Tlaib's case is the opposite. While The Parmeter Politics and Policy Review will not make predictions on the primary outcomes, the results from New York and research compiled for the previous blog post still suggest that the former three incumbents are likely to face contested renominations at least, and are the most likely (out of all the challenges mentioned here) to be defeated. Recently, Massachusetts progressives have stepped up pressure on Neal and Lynch in the aftermath of Bowman's (very likely) NYC victory, while both incumbents have taken steps to counter such energy (Murray). The fourth is less certain, particularly considering polling data discussed in the previous post and recent allegations against the challenger. Furthermore, the fact that fellow "Trump squad" member Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14) fought off a high-profile primary challenge relatively easy (Colton and McDonough), factors into this uncertainty, despite Tlaib's controversial first term.
The progressive surge in NYC, combined with progressive Kentucky Senate Democratic candidate Richard Booker's stronger-than-expected performance (2018 House candidate Amy McGrath was recently declared the winner) (Karson), has made me consider whether additional incumbents beyond the first three listed above are the only ones potentially facing close primary battles with progressives through the end of the primary season. Among the notable primary challenges that have gained significant attention and could be magnified by the results in New York include:
- Northern New Jersey: Across the Hudson River from NYC, several Democratic incumbents in Northern New Jersey were already facing progressive challenges before the New York primaries. Recent attention has focused on Representative Josh Gottheimer (D, NJ-5), who is being challenged by local councilmember Arati Kreibich (backed by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and other progressive surrogates) in a purple district (Sousa). Much of progressive challenger Kreibich's attacks on Gottheimer have focused on the latter's support for a 2019 Customs and Border Protection funding bill that Kreibich and other progressives criticized for not addressing the conditions facing migrant families there (Sousa). Recent polling (done before the New York House primaries) has shown Gottheimer leading 62%-21% over Kreibich (Sousa). A primary upset against Gottheimer seems unlikely based on such information, but it will be worth watching because of the proximity to NYC and the arguable similarities with the New York primary battles. In addition to Gottheimer, veteran incumbent Representatives Bill Pascrell Jr. (D, NJ-9) (Salant), Albio Sires (D, NJ-8) (Israel) and Donald Payne Jr. (D, NY-10) (Israel) are also facing progressive challengers backed by Senator Sanders, other prominent progressives, and progressive organizations (Salant). Generally, it remains to be seen if New York City's progressive energy of 2018 and 2020 crosses the river, causing close primary renominations for longtime incumbents at the very least, and at most, upset victories by progressive challengers. Last week, Bloomberg Government journalist Greg Giroux reported on Twitter that efforts to support Representative Sires had increased (@Giroux). This support includes opposition research revealed on Rep. Sire's opponent Hector Oseguera regarding allegations of previously being a Republican and receiving money from a Trump supporter (Friedman). Meanwhile, the Democratic establishment has recently rallied around Gottheimer in light of his aforementioned challenge (Sousa). These actions could potentially point to establishment concern of a potential primary upset occurring in New Jersey as a result of the progressive energy seen in New York City two weeks ago. New Jersey will host its primaries next Tuesday, July 7th, concurrent with the Democratic presidential primary ("2020 State Primary").
- Florida: The Sunshine State is another place where multiple incumbent Democrats face primary challenges that could be emboldened in the post-New York primary environment. Potentially the most notable is ex-DNC chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D, FL-23), who is being challenged by lawyer Jen Perelman (Manjarres). Rep. Wasserman-Schultz is included because they previously faced a serious challenge in 2016 after the DNC email leaks forced her to resign from that position (Schneider). Further north, longtime Rep. Al Lawson (D, FL-5) is facing multiple challengers this cycle (Call), after facing a relatively close primary renomination in 2018 (Cook, 73). Florida's House primaries will be on August 18th, one of the last of the cycle ("2020 State Primary").
- Others?: Outside New Jersey and Florida, another moderate Democratic incumbent whose primary could become competitive is Arizona Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D, AZ-1), whose possibility of facing a competitive primary was briefly mentioned in Kondik's article on possible primary challenges from last year (Kondik, "House 2020"). Rep. O'Halleran is facing Eva Putzoza, a former Flagstaff Councilmember and Slovakian immigrant (Surma).
As for House Republicans, there appear to be no signs that any incumbents with upcoming primaries are at-risk of primary defeats, save for controversial freshman Rep. Steve Watkins (R, KS-2), whose case was addressed in the earlier House primaries post. Yet, last week's House primaries witnessed a major upset when Western Colorado Rep. Scott Tipton (R, CO-3) lost renomination to controversial business owner Lauren Boebert, a race that received relatively little attention (Axelrod). As such, it could be possible, but unlikely, that other potential upset primary victories could be lurking in races receiving little or no attention regardless of party.
Keep note that none of the information above suggests that any primary upsets against incumbents are guaranteed (or that incumbents are guaranteed reelection). It is important to note that the number of incumbent primary defeats in non-redistricting (i.e. cycles in a year not ending in xxx2, exempting special redistricting cases) cycles is always low (Kondik). Nonetheless, these and potentially other upcoming incumbent primary challenges that have received attention or were projected to occur should be watched to see how close they end up becoming, and whether the results are indicative of broader national trends.
Works Cited:
"2020 State Primary Election Dates." National Council of State Legislatures, 19 May 2020, www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/2020-state-primary-election-dates.aspx#Chronological. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020.
Axelrod, Tal. "Colorado GOP Rep. Scott Tipton defeated in primary upset," The Hill, 30 Jun. 2020,
thehill.com/homenews/campaign/505362-republican-lauren-boebert-ousts-rep-scott-tipton-in-colorado-primary. Accessed 2 Jul. 2020.
Call, James. "Challengers say Democratic Congressman Al Lawson is the special interests' candidate." USA Today, 18 Jun. 2020, www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2020/06/18/challengers-say-congressman-al-lawson-special-interests-candidate/3205238001/. Accessed 2 Jul. 2020.
Coltin, Jeff, and Annie McDonough. "New York’s 2020 congressional primary election results." New York City and State, 30 Jun. 2020, www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/new-yorks-2020-congressional-primary-election-results.html. Accessed 5 Jul. 2020.
Cook, Rhodes. "The Primaries of 2014: More Than Meets the Eye." The Blue Wave, edited by Kyle Kondik, Larry Sabato, and Geoffrey Skelley, Rowman and Littlefield, 2015, pp. 37-52.
Dervishi, Kay. "The long wait for New York City election results." New York City and State, 30 Jun. 2020, www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/long-wait-new-york-city-election-results.html. Accessed 2 Jul. 2020.
Friedman, Matt. "Hudson Dems now taking District 8 'Siresly'." Politico, 29 Jun. 2020, www.politico.com/newsletters/new-jersey-playbook/2020/06/29/hcdo-wakes-up-on-sires-489660. Accessed 5 Jul. 2020.
Gregorian, Dareh. "Key Democratic primaries for House in N.Y. and Senate in Kentucky." NBC, 23 Jun. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/key-democratic-primaries-house-n-y-senate-kentucky-n1231620. Accessed 28 Jun. 2020.
Israel, Daniel. "Standing up to sitting incumbents." The Hudson Reporter, 25 Jun. 2020, hudsonreporter.com/2020/06/25/standing-up-to-sitting-incumbents/. Accessed 26 Jun. 2020.
Karson, Kendall. "Amy McGrath defeats Charles Booker in closely watched Kentucky Senate primary, will face McConnell in November." ABC News, 30 Jun. 2020, abcnews.go.com/Politics/amy-mcgrath-defeats-charles-booker-closely-watched-kentucky/story?id=71536185. Accessed 2 Jul. 2020.
Kondik, Kyle. "House 2020: Incumbents Hardly Ever Lose Primaries." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 30 May 2019. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2020-incumbents-hardly-ever-lose-primaries/. Accessed 15 June 2020.
Kondik, Kyle, and Larry Sabato, editors. The Blue Wave. Rowman and Littlefield, 2019.
Manjarres, Javier. "Wasserman Schultz faces another primary election challenger." The Floridian, 23 Oct. 2019, floridianpress.com/2019/10/wasserman-schultz-faces-another-primary-election-challenger/. Accessed 5 Jul. 2020.
McDonald, Terrence. "How one Josh Gottheimer vote led to his primary challenge by Arati Kreibich." North Jersey, 25 Jun. 2020, www.northjersey.com/story/news/new-jersey/2020/06/25/josh-gottheimer-vote-led-his-primary-challenge-arati-kreibich-2020-primary/3246192001/. Accessed 26 Jun. 2020.
Murray, Stephanie. "High on the left’s wish list: Knocking out another House chairman." Politico, 5 Jul. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/07/05/progressives-richard-neal-massachusetts-primary-348660. Accessed 5 Jul. 2020.
Mutnick. "Rep. Dan Lipinski falls in Democratic primary." Politico, 18 Mar. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/03/18/rep-dan-lipinski-falls-in-democratic-primary-135175. Accessed 2 Jul. 2020.
"New York Primary Results 2020." Politico, last updated 24 Jun. 2020, www.politico.com/2020-election/results/new-york/. Accessed 25 Jun. 2020.
Salant, Jonathan. "The Bernie Sanders Movement lives in N.J. as his allies take on veteran Dems in July 7 primary." New Jersey, 21 Jun. 2020, www.nj.com/politics/2020/06/the-bernie-sanders-movement-lives-in-nj-as-his-allies-take-on-veteran-dems-in-july-7-primary.html. Accessed 26 Jun. 2020.
Schneider, Elena. "Wasserman Schultz survives spirited primary." Politico, 30 Aug. 2016, www.politico.com/story/2016/08/debbie-wasserman-schultz-wins-primary-227570. Accessed 2 Jul. 2020.
Shanes, Alexis. "Bernie Sanders endorses Gottheimer's primary opponent, while Pelosi backs incumbent." North Jersey, 16 Jun. 2020, www.northjersey.com/story/news/2020/06/16/josh-gottheimer-arati-kreibich-draw-endorsements-nj-primary/3191452001/. Accessed 26 Jun. 2020.
Sousa, Tori. "In NJ-5, progressive and centrist Penn alumni vie for Democratic nomination." The Daily Pennsylvanian, 26 Jun. 2020, www.thedp.com/article/2020/06/new-jersey-democratic-primary-gottheimer-kreibich-penn-alumni. Accessed 26 Jun. 2020.
Surma, Katie. "Will Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez back Arizona congressional candidate Eva Putzova?" Arizona Central, 2 Apr. 2020, www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2020/04/02/aoc-endorses-progressive-candidates-but-leaves-out-eva-putzova/5034027002/. Accessed 30 Jun. 2020.
@Greg Giroux. "Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI) PAC is intervening to aid Rep.
@AlbioSiresNJ (D-NJ) ahead of Tuesday's primary. It reported spending $44k for pro-Sires digital ads:
https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00710848/1416106/se. Sires' top challenger is @Oseguera2020. #nj08." Twitter, 2 Jul. 2020, 12:45pm, https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1278731409746771968.
Nathan Parmeter
Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record
No comments:
Post a Comment