Florida House Primaries Preview: Is Another Incumbent Takedown Brewing?

Author's Notes: Tonight's edition of The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record will be a special two-part edition; the second part, where I come up with an econometric model to child mortality in the developing and emerging world, can be found here. I was originally going to publish both articles at the normal hour (8pm Pacific Time), but because of the possibility of rolling blackouts hitting Fresno due to the ongoing heat wave, I published both earlier, at 5:30pm. Note that this publication time change will be temporary. 

Florida House Primaries Preview: Is Another Incumbent Takedown Brewing? 

Introduction: On multiple occasions since launching this blog, I have extensively covered the 2020 Congressional primary season, particularly focusing on instances of incumbents who faced or might face close renominations of primary defeats. When I explored the post-New York House primaries in early July, it seemed that Rep. Steve Watkins (R, KS-2) was the only remaining Republican incumbent with a significant risk of losing renomination (he eventually did). Since then, with Florida's House primaries coming up this coming Tuesday (8/14) ("2020 State"), reports have emerged that another incumbent Republican incumbent is facing a serious primary challenge and could be at-risk of losing their primary. In addition, two House Democrats from Florida may also face competitive or close primary renomination results when the night is complete. These cases are described in detail below: 

Florida Incumbent House Primaries to Watch:

• Rep. Ross Spano (R, FL-15): Last year, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball indicated that freshman Representative Ross Spano (R, FL-15) of Central Florida was potentially at-risk of being challenged in the primary due to a campaign finance scandal (Kondik). More specifically, the scandal in question involves allegations that Rep. Spano borrowed funds from acquaintances in amounts above what is allowed by law (Newborn). Rep. Spano is being challenged by Lakeland Commissioner Scott Franklin, who was recently endorsed by prominent Freedom Caucus member Rep. Matt Gaetz (R, FL-1). In his endorsement, Rep. Gaetz claimed that the incumbent is not sufficiently pro-Trump. Simultaneously, Rep. Spano has touted his endorsements from Republican establishment and leadership figures, and has emphasized his support for President Trump and his policies ("Rep. Matt"). 
• Rep. Al Lawson (D, FL-5): Rep. Lawson is an African-American representative in a district encompassing rural swathes of Northern Florida, parts of Jacksonville, and the state capitol of Tallahassee (Bauerlein). He is no stranger to contested primaries, as his 2018 renomination was won by less than 30 points (Cook, 73). This time, Rep. Lawson is being challenged by two progressive challengers who emphasize the need for bold reform and generational change, particularly their ability to connect with young voters (Bauerlein). His challengers have also criticized the incumbent for being too friendly to special interests (Call). In return, Rep. Lawson has emphasized his ability to bring Federal appropriations to support district infrastructure and services, particularly during the ongoing pandemic (Bauerlein). 
• Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D, FL-24): Like Rep. Lawson, South Florida Representative Debbie-Wasserman Schultz is no stranger to primary challenges. After resigning from her position as the Democratic National Committee (DNC) chair in mid-2016, Rep. Wasserman-Schultz beat back a significant challenge from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)-backed lawyer Tim Canova, with the controversy over Wasserman-Schultz's role in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries being the center focus (Schneider). This time, the incumbent is facing lawyer Jen Perelman, who like with Rep. Lawson's progressive challengers, has accused the incumbent of being friendly to big money and becoming too entrenched in her position. A news story from The Miami Herald last month argued that Perelman is in a weaker position than Canova was in 2016, as the latter raised a far larger amount of money and gained more attention (Daugherty). Nonetheless, this is a race that has the potential to be interesting, considering the progressive surge of 2020 resulting in closer-than-expected results in several Democratic incumbent races last week that received little attention prior to the primaries. 

Works Cited:

"2020 State Primary Election Dates." National Council of State Legislatures, 19 May 2020, www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/2020-state-primary-election-dates.aspx#Chronological. Accessed 14 Aug. 2020. 

Bauerlein, David. "Congressman Al Lawson faces opposition from Jacksonville residents Chester and Holloway." Jacksonville.com, 10 Aug. 2020, www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/elections/candidate-profiles/2020/08/10/u-s-rep-al-lawson-draws-democratic-and-gop-challenge-5th-district/3319121001/. Accessed 14 Aug. 2020. 

Call, James. "Challengers say Democratic Congressman Al Lawson is the special interests' candidate." USA Today, 18 Jun. 2020, www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2020/06/18/challengers-say-congressman-al-lawson-special-interests-candidate/3205238001/. Accessed 14 Aug. 2020.  

Cook, Rhodes. "The Primaries of 2014: More Than Meets the Eye." The Blue Wave, edited by Kyle Kondik, Larry Sabato, and Geoffrey Skelley, Rowman and Littlefield, 2015, pp. 37-52. 

Daugherty, Alex. "Debbie Wasserman Schultz faces another primary challenge. But it’s not like 2016." The Miami Herald, 17 Jul. 2020, www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article244246257.html. Accessed 14 Aug. 2020. 

Kondik, Kyle. "House 2020: Incumbents Hardly Ever Lose Primaries." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 30 May 2019. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2020-incumbents-hardly-ever-lose-primaries/. Accessed 15 June 2020. 

Kondik, Kyle, and Larry Sabato, editors. The Blue Wave. Rowman and Littlefield, 2019. 

Newborn, Steve. "Ross Spano Faces 'Serious Challenge' For Congressional Seat." WUSF Public Media, 13 Aug. 2020, wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/post/ross-spano-faces-serious-challenge-congressional-seat. Accessed 14 Aug. 2020. 

"Rep. Matt Gaetz visits Polk County to endorse Rep. Ross Spano’s GOP primary challenger." WFLA News, 5 Aug. 2020, www.wfla.com/news/florida/rep-matt-gaetz-visits-polk-county-to-endorse-rep-ross-spanos-gop-primary-challenger/. Accessed 14 Aug. 2020. 

Schneider, Elena. "Wasserman Schultz survives spirited primary." Politico, 30 Aug. 2016, www.politico.com/story/2016/08/debbie-wasserman-schultz-wins-primary-227570. Accessed 14 Aug. 2020. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record