Converting CA's 2020 House "Jungle Primary" Results to "Regular Primary" Results

Author's Notes: I had this post in mind even before Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg passed away this weekend at the age of 87. I want to iterate to everyone who reads and follows my blog that out of respect for the late justice, I will not immediately discuss or speculate about the political implications of her death (including the controversy over whether she should be replaced before the next Congress is seated), especially the implications for this year's elections. 

In addition, while randomly browsing 2020 primary election results, I realized that I neglected to mention Representative Yvette Clarke (D, NY-9)'s 2020 primary result on last Thursday's post providing a rundown of 2020's close House primary results. The final results showed her winning renomination by just under a 30% margin, thus qualifying this case for that post, as I sought to include all incumbents who won renomination by less than 30%. As such, I modified that page to reflect the addition. 

Converting CA's 2020 House "Jungle Primary" Results to "Regular Primary" Results

Introduction: In 2010, California voters approved Proposition 14, which would convert California's traditional primary system to a "top 2" primary. In such a primary, all candidates regardless of partisan affiliation appear on one ballot, and the top two advance to the general election. The measure was widely supported by voters and lame duck Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), who was strongly in favor of electoral reform. Supporters argued that adapting such a system would incentivize candidates to moderate and reach out to more voters to make a top 2 spot, thus making the primary system less dominated by extremists. Meanwhile, opponents worried that it would hurt third-party opportunities to get on the ballot and benefit wealthier candidates, who could put in the time and resources for mass voter outreach. Since 2012, the "Top 2" primary system has been in force in Congressional and state primaries, although the state's presidential primary continues to run under a traditional "part-closed" system (Green). In today's blog post, I will be converting 2020 California House primaries featuring an incumbent and at least 1 other candidate from their party running for the general election. The results will be modified to traditional first-past-the-post primary results, as means to understand how a "top-2" system alters primary dynamics. 

Data Collection: Like previous posts, 2020 House primary results were extracted from the California Secretary of State's Website into an Excel document. From there, I manipulated the data to separate votes by party affiliation and determine which candidates would have won which counties under a traditional party system. House results were on pages 126 through 152. 

Methodology: Only incumbents who ran for re-nomination and faced another candidate from their party in the "Top 2" primary were included in this analysis. The following House incumbents who ran for and made a 2020 House Top 2 spot for the general election are excluded because they did not face a challenger from their own party: John Garamendi (D, CA-3), Mark DeSauliner (D, CA-11), Barbara Lee (D, CA-13), Devin Nunes (R, CA-22), Kevin McCarthy (R, CA-23), Salud Carbajal (D, CA-24), Judy Chu (D, CA-27), Pete Aguilar (D, CA-31), Norma Torres (D, CA-35), Gil Cisneros (D, CA-39), Ken Calvert (R, CA-42), Maxine Waters (D, CA-43), Katie Porter (D, CA-45), Harley Rouda (D, CA-48), Mike Levin (D, CA-49), and Juan Vargas (D, CA-51). In addition, Rep. Linda Sanchez (D, CA-38) is also excluded because her only challenger was also a Democrat; she did not face anyone else of another partisan affiliation. California's two open seats in the 2020 cycle (CA-8 and CA-53) are also excluded, as is the currently vacant CA-50. Finally, while Mike Garcia (R) won the special election in CA-25 and is now seated as an incumbent member of Congress, I do not count his general election primary results because he was not running as an incumbent at the time. 

Table 1: 2020 California House Top-2 vs. Converted Primary Results

Note: Challengers with (WI) indicate a write-in candidate who was otherwise not on the ballot. 

Results and Analysis: Table 1 above compares California House incumbent primary results to the second-place challenger from the same party, and splits up the results into the "Top 2" primary and by the converted results. Note that under a traditional primary system, every incumbent would have won re-nomination, assuming the exact raw vote numbers stay consistent. Most would not have even faced a competitive renomination, but two competitive challenges stand out. In particular, San Joaquin Valley Representative Jim Costa (D, CA-16), whose near-upset 2014 defeat was covered several weeks ago, would have won re-nomination 56%-33%. His challenger was Fresno Councilmember Esmeralda Soria, who emphasized generational change and fresh ideas (Yurong). The second notable challenge was to Downtown Los Angeles-based Representative Jimmy Gomez (D, CA-34), who would have won re-nomination 56%-23% over lawyer David Kim. Like Soria in CA-17, Kim has run on a progressive platform emphasizing new ideas. Under the current system, both Gomez and Kim placed first and second, respectively, and are competing for first place in the November general election (Hendrickson). 

Meanwhile, only two California House Republicans (Reps. Doug LaMalfa (R, CA-1) and Tom McClintock (R, CA-4) faced any challengers from their party, and both would have won overwhelmingly under a regular primary system. As discussed in last weeks post looking back on the 2020 House primaries, this matches national House primary results, where only a handful of incumbent Republicans lost or came close to losing compared to Democrats, and that those who lost went down for reasons specific to each primary race. On the other hand, the high number of incumbent House Democrats in California who faced primary challenges goes along with national trends, especially those facing challenges from the young and progressive end of the party. 

Limitations: While converting the "Top 2"primary results to regular primary results for each incumbent's party would not have resulted in any incumbents losing or coming very close to losing, it is important to remember that if California still had a regular primary, the dynamics of these races would likely be different. In turn, different results would likely be possible under such a system. For example, the potential to unseat Costa could have led to Esmeralda Soria, national progressives, and related institutions to more assertively target Costa. While this could have led to Costa being at greater risk of losing his primary, Costa likely would have fired up his campaign to ward off the challenge. Furthermore, other progressive challengers who only won 10-15% (or less) of the Democratic primary vote under the regular primary scenario could have been vastly invigorated under such a system, and could have also pressed the House incumbent(s) much more than in a "Top 2" system, where the incumbent must be bumped below 2nd place to be denied renomination. Obviously, neither myself nor any other political pundits know what such an alternative universe looks like, but the numbers shown here from converting "Top 2" primary results to regular primary results offer some hints. 

Data Sources:

"Statement of Vote: March 3, 2020 Statewide Direct Primary Election." California Secretary of State Alex Padilla, 1 May 2020, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2020-primary/sov/complete-sov.pdf. Accessed 20 Sept. 2020. 

Works Cited:

Green, Matthew. "Making Sense of California's Top-Two Primary System." KQED, 6 Jun. 2018, www.kqed.org/lowdown/2014/californias-new-top-two-primary-explained. Accessed 20 Sept. 2020. 

Hendrickson, T.A. "March 2020 Primary Results: What The Voters Decided." Boulevard Sentinel, www.boulevardsentinel.com/march-2020-election-results/. Accessed 20 Sept. 2020. 

Yurong, Dale. "Esmeralda Soria and Jim Costa fighting for votes as March primary nears." ABC30, 17 Feb. 2020, abc30.com/esmerelda-soria-jim-costa-politics-16th-district/5940935/. Accessed 20 Sept. 2020. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record