Examining the "June 2020 Effect" on post-George Floyd Primaries

Author's Notes: All of you will be glad to know that I arrived safe and healthy back in California, particularly considering that flying anywhere right now is very risky (nonetheless, it was necessary for me to come home, for reasons I will not get into). Since I will be self-isolating for two weeks and this happens to be the hottest part of the year in Fresno (at least, not humid and muggy!), I will be extensively working on my blog (plus job searching) and have a number of blog post ideas that I am looking forward to creating! With that, on to today's post. As a friendly reminder, from now on, publication times will be at 8pm PST on Sundays and Wednesdays. 

Examining the "June 2020 Effect" on post-George Floyd Primaries

Introduction: The Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement's resurgence in the wake of George Floyd's death has had a significant impact on American public policy and political discourse, ranging from discussion on police reform specifically to broader discussion about how to correct for historical and current forms of implicit racism impacting minority communities. One electoral effect that seems to have become prominent as a result of the BLM movement's resurgence is the (self-deemed) "June 2020 Effect," in which African-American Democratic primary candidates (in most cases, progressives challenging White incumbents or front-runners) running in post-George Floyd races have seen a significant electoral boost, even if such candidates were previously unknown or received little attention. As will be explored below, these African-American candidates have not just openly supported BLM, but have actively participated in the movement and related policy discussion, which could arguably be an intervening variable between the independent and dependent variables. 

Examining post-George Floyd Primary Results: While I was not able to conduct quantitative analysis on this political theory due to lack of time, there have been several prominent primary results from the last two months (post-George Floyd's death) that can be used to create a framework representing this phenomena. 

• NY-14 Democratic House Primary (June 20th): Even before George Floyd's death, Representative Eliot Engel (D, NY-14) was already facing a difficult primary, with progressive African-American Jamaal Bowman (D) putting up a hard challenge to Engel, and feeding off the energy of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's (D, NY-17) 2018 victory (Marans, "Jamaal"). In the end, Bowman won the primary, making Engel the second incumbent House Democrat to lose re-election (Marans, "Jamaal"). In the lead-up to the primary, while Engel participated in BLM protests, he sparked controversy after making a comment at one rally that was deemed by many to be insensitive, and staying at his Maryland residence during the height of the pandemic (Yuan). Bowman not only significantly participated in local protests, but also directly connected his personal experiences with poverty and police brutality in his campaign messaging (Yuan). After several weeks of counting ballots, Bowman was declared the winner, although Engel initially refused to concede (Yuan). Added on to the victories of African-Americans in two adjacent New York Democratic House primaries (Richie Torres and Mondale Jones), Bowman's victory was seen as a larger wave of African-American (and other minority) candidates increasingly asserting themselves on the campaign trail in the wake of the BLM Movement (Yuan). 
• Kentucky Senate Democratic Primary (June 20th): Prior to the death of George Floyd and the BLM resurgence, many pundits believed that former air force veteran and 2018 KY-6 House candidate Amy McGrath would face an easy primary nomination to take on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) (Moore, "Amy"). Longtime African-American state representative Charles Booker had already been running, but gained significant prominence after the BLM movement's resurgence (Moore, "Amy"). In the end, McGrath won the primary by a small margin, but Booker's last-minute surge seemed to indicate that the BLM movement's resurgence and his participation in the movement may have played a significant role in the results (Moore, "Amy"). As will be similarly noted below with the Texas Democratic runoff, Booker significantly emphasized his personal connection to the movement and criticized McGrath for staying more distant from the protests (Svitek, "Issues"). 
• Texas Senate Democratic Primary Runoff (July 14th): Like Kentucky's Senate primary, the Texas Senate primary involved a previous Congressional candidate and veteran, M.J. Hegar, facing off against African-American state legislator Royce West for the nomination to challenge Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) in the general election (Svitek, "MJ Hegar"). Both Hegar and West had come out of a fractured first-stage primary, with the former being favored (but not overwhelmingly) going into the runoff (Svitek, "MJ Hegar"). Like Booker in Kentucky, West featured a significant bump in the lead-up to the primary, simultaneously supported and participated in the BLM movement, and accused his opponent of not sufficiently supporting the movement (Svitek, "Issues of"). In the end, Hegar won a close runoff victory on the July 14th runoff, clearing the way for her to challenge Cornyn in November (Svitek, "MJ Hegar"). 

Upcoming Primaries: A future House primary where the "June 2020 Effect" could happen again is MO-1's Democratic House primary, which will take place on August 4th ("2020 State Primary"). Two years ago, activist Cori Bush made incumbent Representative Lacy Clay's renomination competitive despite the latter eventually winning renomination (Murphy). As noted in a previous blog post, Bush is rematching Clay this cycle, and has been reported to have a much stronger campaign than in 2018 (Otterbein and Thompson). Unlike the other primaries listed above, this primary features an incumbent African-American representative, although like the others, the challenger is a younger progressive seeking broader change than the incumbent (Marans, "Cori"). Bush has been extensively involved with BLM since the death of Michael Brown in 2014, and has become very outspoken with the recent BLM movement (Marans, "Cori"). 

Another upcoming "primary" where the "June 2020 Effect" has the theoretical potential to occur, but is complicated by the specific primary election institution and conditions, is Georgia's Special Senate election. Per Georgia law, special Senate elections comprise a "jungle primary" on election day, and a runoff between the top 2 if no candidate receives 50% (Greenwood). Currently, two prominent Republicans (incumbent Kelly Loeffler and Representative Doug Collins) and African-American pastor and Democrat Raphael Warnock are vying for runoff positions, as well as several less-prominent Democrats (Axelrod). Recently, Loeffler has raised controversy among Democrats by expressing opposition to BLM, something Warnock has extensively criticized her for (Evans). Loeffler's opposition to expanding voting rights is another policy plank Warnock has significantly advocated for in recent weeks, further showing his connection to the African-American community (Evans). As noted on the last post regarding potential Senate incumbent primary defeats, Loeffler has gained polling ground in recent weeks after being speculated of facing a runoff lockout. As of the most recent polls, Warnock currently polls below 10%, and has even declined below another Democrat, Matt Lieberman (the son of ex-Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman) (Lim). It is notable that as late as June, Warnock was polling close to Collins and Loeffler for the coveted second runoff spot (Axelrod). Another complicating factor in this primary is that unlike other African-American candidates profiled here, Warnock has not actively participated in BLM, which has been speculated to be a potential cause behind his low polling energy (Cunningham et al.).  Based on this fact, it is questionable whether this would qualify as an example of the "June 2020 Effect" even in Warnock wins a runoff seat. Nonetheless, considering the amount of time between now and the Georgia Special primary, there is the potential for significant changes to occur that could elevate Warnock once again, potentially creating (rhyming, but not repeating) parallels with the other cases discussed above.

Conclusion: Thinking back to Statistics 101, it cannot be truly said that the killing of George Floyd and the BLM movement's resurgence has directly contributed to an electoral bump for (progressive) African-American primary candidates in recent weeks. However, there is significant qualitative evidence that points to a significant relationship between the two variables. This effect seems to have particularly boosted African-American candidates previously seen as long-shots for the eventual nomination of their respective primary, especially those who openly participated in the movement and were going against incumbents or challengers not directly participating. 

Beyond this year's remaining primaries, deducing whether or not this phenomenon will continue to influence American electoral politics is difficult at the moment, particularly because the November general election could be influential on this effect. On one hand, if President Trump wins re-election, the movement could likely become much stronger and more assertive, considering the President's controversial remarks about BLM and police killings of African-Americans generally (including George Floyd). Per the framework presented here, this could lead to a significant increase in African-American (and other minority) candidates running in, and winning Democratic primaries. On the other hand, if Joe Biden (D) wins the presidency this November, the movement will likely remain active, depending on the extent to which Biden and the 117th Congress are able to implement reforms championed by BLM and other movements. Regardless of the November election results, it is fair to say that larger numbers of African-Americans and other persons of color will be running for Federal-level offices in the next few cycles as a result of an increased national discussion in racial justice and related movements championing it. With House redistricting around the corner in 2022, there could provide ample opportunities for these aspiring leaders to have their voice heard, and thus provide additional diversity to primary and general elections. 

Works Cited:

"2020 State Primary Election Dates." National Council of State Legislatures, 19 May 2020, www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/2020-state-primary-election-dates.aspx#Chronological. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

Axelrod, Tal. "Warnock campaign boasts confidence heading into Georgia Senate race." The Hill, 16 Jul. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/507632-warnock-campaign-boasts-confidence-heading-into-georgia-senate-race. Accessed 20 Jul. 2020. 

Cunningham, Eric, Kraz Greinetz, Harrison Lavelle, and Adam Trencher. "Race ratings changes-July 2020." Elections Daily, 1 Jul. 2020, elections-daily.com/2020/07/01/race-ratings-changes/?utm_source=ReviveOldPost&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ReviveOldPost. Accessed 29 Jul. 2020. 

Evans, Beau. "U.S. Senate candidate Warnock highlights voting rights in U.S. Senate campaign." Augusta Chronicle, 21 Jul. 2020, www.augustachronicle.com/news/20200721/us-senate-candidate-warnock-highlights-voting-rights-in-us-senate-campaign. Accessed 29 Jul. 2020. 

Ferris, Sarah, and Marianne Levine. "‘America made it about race’: Candidates of color still grapple with deep-rooted barriers." Politico, 20 Jul. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/07/20/congressional-candidates-of-color-366416. Accessed 20 Jul. 2020. 

Greenwood, Max. "Democrats hope for tidal moment in Georgia with two Senate seats in play." The Hill, 10 Jul. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506648-democrats-hope-for-tidal-moment-in-georgia-with-two-senate-seats-in-play. Accessed 20 Jul. 2020.

Lim, Naomi. "Kelly Loeffler wrests lead in Georgia Senate special election: Poll." Washington Examiner, 29 Jul. 2020, www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/kelly-loeffler-wrests-lead-in-georgia-senate-special-election-poll. Accessed 29 Jul. 2020. 

Marans, Daniel. "Cori Bush, Progressive Missouri Challenger, Raises $170,000 In June." The Huffington Post, 6 Jul. 2020, www.huffpost.com/entry/cori-bush-missouri-democratic-primary-fundraising_n_5f035ef2c5b612083c5fe2a1. Accessed 20 Jul. 2020. 

---. "Jamaal Bowman Unseats Rep. Eliot Engel In New York Primary." The Huffington Post, 17 Jul. 2020, www.huffpost.com/entry/bowman-defeats-engel-new-york-democratic-primaries-2020_n_5ef22705c5b663ecc8544563?cbl. Accessed 19 Jul. 2020. 

Moore, Elena. "Amy McGrath Is Projected To Edge Out Charles Booker In Ky. Senate Democratic Primary." National Public Radio, 30 Jun. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/06/30/882544188/amy-mcgrath-is-projected-to-edge-charles-booker-in-kentucky-senate-democratic-pr. Accessed 20 Jul. 2020. 

---. "Progressive Jamaal Bowman Projected To Oust Longtime Rep. Engel In N.Y. Primary." National Public Radio, 17 Jul. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/07/17/882034409/progressive-jamaal-bowman-projected-to-oust-longtime-n-y-rep-engel-in-primary. Accessed 29 Jul. 2020. 

Murphy, Doyle. "Cori Bush's National Buzz Not Enough to Beat Lacy Clay." Riverfront Times, 7 Aug. 2018, www.riverfronttimes.com/newsblog/2018/08/07/cori-bushs-national-buzz-not-enough-to-beat-lacy-clay. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

Otterbein, Holly, and Alex Thompson. "The 'new' AOC divides the left." Politico, 30 Mar. 2020, www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/29/the-new-aoc-divides-the-left-1269548. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

Svitek, Patrick. "MJ Hegar defeats Royce West in Democratic runoff for U.S. Senate." The Texas Tribute, 14 Jul. 2020. www.texastribune.org/2020/07/14/mj-hegar-john-cornyn-texas-senate-royce-west/?utm_campaign=trib social&utm_content=1594821835&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter. Accessed 16 Jul. 2020. 

---. "Issues of race, policing dominate final stretch of Democratic runoff to face U.S. Sen. John Cornyn." 29 Jun. 2020, www.texastribune.org/2020/06/29/royce-west-mj-hegar-texas-primary-runoff/. Accessed 29 Jul. 2020. 

Yuan, Jada. "How a middle school principal used the Ocasio-Cortez playbook against a 16-term incumbent." Washington Post, 16 Jul. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/how-a-middle-school-principal-used-the-ocasio-cortez-playbook-against-a-16-term-incumbent/2020/07/15/ea7e9eb8-c2f4-11ea-b178-bb7b05b94af1_story.html. Accessed 29 Jul. 2020. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Review