2020: The Year of the Diverse Progressive Primary Candidate?

2020: Year of the Diverse Progressive Primary Candidate?

Introduction: Two weeks ago, I explored the self-dubbed "June 2020 effect," a political phenomena where progressive African-American candidates seem to have gained a significant electoral boost in post-George Floyd Congressional primaries, especially if they actively participated in the renewed Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. At the end of that post, I discussed whether the phenomenon would carry on through both the remaining primary season and beyond, considering the strength of the movement. Among such discussion was an extrapolation of potential future cases to provide evidence of the effect, especially the (then upcoming) primary of Representative Lacy Clay (D, MO-1), who was facing progressive nurse and activist Cori Bush in a rematch. The results of Representative Clay's primary (detailed below), combined with last week's other Democratic primary results from Michigan, Tennessee, and Arizona, and other results from throughout the season, seem to be indicative of a broader phenomena of progressive politics. This new trend seems to not just involve African-American progressives, but more diverse progressives generally. As such, today's blog post will explore whether 2020 can be considered the year of the Diverse Nonwhite Progressive, not just along lines of race and gender, but also age, citizenship status, and class. Note that throughout this post, I use the term progressive broadly, ranging from the "Trump Squad"'s progressive ideology to more moderate forms such as that of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). 

Previous Electoral Diversity "Years": When it comes to "years" of increasing Congressional diversity, one of the oldest and most significant years was 1992, popularly dubbed "The Year of the Woman" because of the high number of women who won Congressional seats that year ("The Year"). In particular, a record four freshman women were elected to the United States Senate, including California becoming the first state to elect two female Senators ("Year"). More recently, commentators have declared the 2018 elections to be another "Year of the Woman" not just because of the high number of women elected to the House and Senate, but because of the unprecedented diversity (Viebeck). In addition to female representation, the 2018 freshman class was generally noted to be far younger and more diverse than ever, with increased representation of veterans, those with medical backgrounds, and educational teaching backgrounds. In addition, this Congress has been cited to be one of the youngest in years, and the most racially-diverse, with 20% being nonwhite (Jin). 

Evidence from the 2020 Democratic Primary Season:

     Presidential Primaries: At its peak, the 2020 Democratic presidential primary featured over 24 candidates, which is believed to be the largest field ever. By comparison, the 2016 Republican field featured 17 candidates at the high-water mark (Jacobson). Among these 24 included several noteworthy progressive candidates with a diversity of backgrounds, particularly along lines of gender, race, and age (Herndon and Astead). Particularly, it was notable for having candidates of Pacific Islander (Tulsi Gabbard), African-American (Cory Booker, Wayne Messam and Kamala Harris), Hispanic (Julian Castro), and Asian-American (Andrew Yang) heritage (Herndon and Astead; "Who were"), many of whom touted progressive ideas and ideology ("Who were"). In addition, six female candidates were among those vying for the nomination, including four senators ("Who were"). 

     House Primaries: Between the 2020 House, Senate, and Presidential primaries, the House primaries have arguably seen the greatest level of increased diversity, even among those who lost the primaries, and especially in the post-George Floyd Protests environment. Among the new progressive and diverse African-American nominees include the first two LGBTQ+ African-Americans, Mondaire Jones (D) and Ritchie Torres (D) (who is also Hispanic), both based in New York City and its suburbs ("Rep. Maloney"). One district away, another progressive African-American, former school principal Jamaal Bowman (D), defeated longtime incumbent Rep. Eliot Engel (D, NY-16) in a high-profile primary challenge (Marans). Last week, African-American activist and nurse Cori Bush (D) narrowly defeated Rep. Lacy Clay (D, MO-1), another longtime incumbent (Eisele). In the DFW metroplex, African- and Hispanic-American Candace Valenzuela (D) won the nomination to vie for a House seat that has turned increasingly blue in recent cycles (Kosciulek and Palmer). Another notable progressive primary victory is queer Latina Georgette Gomez (D), who placed second in the top-two primary to replace retiring San Diego-based Representative Susan Davis (D, CA-53) ("Sara Jacobs"). Finally, I will also count the renominations of Representatives Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-15), Rashida Tlaib (D, MI-13), and Ilhan Omar (D, MN-5) as being a part of this year's wave of diverse progressiveism, as all three are notable diverse progressives (Foran and Krieg). 

     The list of diverse progressive candidates seeking Congressional election nominations does not just end at those who won primaries, as several noteworthy diverse progressive candidates lost primaries, some narrowly. The most notable is 26-year old Hispanic progressive Jessica Cisneros, who was running against moderate Democrat Henry Cuellar (D, TX-16) in South Texas. Cisneros, who was hoping to replicate AOC's 2018 upset victory, came within 3 points of denying renomination to Rep. Cuellar in an extensively-watched primary (Brufke). In a rematch from 2018, Big Apple Representative Carolyn Maloney (D, NY-12) faced Suraj Patel, an Indian-American advocating a progressive platform. After almost 2 months of ballot-counting, Maloney was recently declared the winner by 3 points, although Patel has refused to concede (at the time of this post's publishing) due to allegations of ballot disqualification by New York officials ("Rep. Maloney"). Meanwhile, in Tennessee's House primaries last week, female African-American public defender Keeda Haynes (who had previously been convicted of a drug-related felony, and continues to claim innocence) made Nashville-based Representative Jim Cooper's renomination competitive, winning almost 40% (Jeong). A similar outcome occurred in the Northern Arizona district represented by Tom o'Halleran (D, AZ-1), who was challenged by progressive Slovakian immigrant Eva Putzova, and also kept Rep. o'Halleran's renomination margin under 20% (Aleshire). 

     Senate Primaries: In this year's Senate primaries, there has been a relative lack of increasingly diverse primary candidates compared to the Presidential and House primaries. Nonetheless, several notable progressive nominees or competitive candidates stand out. A week ago, African-American environmental justice activist Marquita Bradshaw (D) won a shocking upset in the Democratic Tennessee Senate primary to face off with ex-ambassador Bill Hagerty (R) to replace retiring Senator Lamar Alexander (R) ("Marquita"). A previous post about the self-dubbed "June 2020 effect" looked at the candidacies of progressive African-American state legislators Charles Booker and Royce West, both of whom almost won Democratic Senate primaries in Kentucky and Texas (runoff), respectively. As noted on that post, both were considered underdogs prior to the Death of George Floyd, and that the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement's resurgence prior to both primaries may have led to a significant electoral boost for both candidates.

Conclusion and Implications: Even when considering those that lost primaries, all of the evidence seems to point to the 2020 primary season featuring a more diverse slate of candidates increasingly running for, and winning primaries that allow them to advance on to the general election. While the effects of George Floyd's death and the Black Lives Matter movement's resurgence since is likely one of the main factors behind this, medium-to-long term factors are just as responsible. One of the most significant is an increased interest by younger and more diverse Americans to participate in politics, who are more likely to support diverse progressive candidates. This effect showed itself in 2018 with Ocasio-Cortez's, Omar's, Tlaib's and Ayanna Pressley's congressional victories, as well as an influx of younger freshman members generally (also detailed in another previous blog post). Moving forward, it is fair to say that with redistricting around the corner, that this interest will likely increase, and that 2022 may feature an even more diverse slate of progressive nominees vying to win primaries and make it to the general election. 

Works Cited:

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     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record