Congressional Incumbents Who Lost by Double-Digits from 2010-2020

5/17/2021 UPDATE: After initial publication of this article on 5/16/2021, I noticed that I neglected to include instances from the 2010, 2012, and 2014 elections where three House incumbents lost by double-digits. As of 6:45pm PST on 5/17/2021, I corrected Visual 1, Table 1, and the writing below to account for this. I also changed some of the notes below Visual 1 and Table 1. 

Congressional Incumbents Who Lost by Double-Digits from 2010-2020

Introduction: One of the most notable things I learned for the first time in AP American Government and Politics is that Congressional incumbents generally have an advantage over non-incumbent candidates challenging incumbents. Yet, every cycle, at least several House members and/or Senators lose re-election, with some losing narrowly, and others losing by double-digits or more. Today's post will consist of a list of House and Senate members who lost re-election bids by 10% or more starting in 10%, and analysis of prominent trends among those who faced that situation. Note that this post will only count incumbents who lose on Election Day (or post-Election Day runoffs), which includes runoff elections following Louisiana's Election Day "Jungle Primary." 

Methodology: Data for today's post came from the following sources. Incumbents who lost by double-digits and the specific margins (both for the losing year and the previous election) were calculated from final results tabulated in each biannual Federal Election Statistics report from the History, Art, and Archives division of the United States House of Representatives. 2012, 2016, and 2020 Presidential election results per Congressional district were taken from Daily Kos, while 2008 results came from The Swing State Project. State-level presidential results for each year were used from the University of California, Santa Barbara's American Presidency Project. 

     Visual 1: Timeline of House and Senate Incumbents who Lost Re-Election by Double-Digits

     Notes: As per normal on this blog, blue refers to Democrats and red refers to Republicans. 

     Table 1: List of House and Senate Incumbents who Lost Re-Election by Double-Digits

     Notes: Election results with superscripts refer to the following unique electoral conditions, by letter:

      - A: Post-Election Day runoff result

      - B: Member vs. member result in "Jungle Primary" state

      - C: Most recent result in pre-redistricting district

      - D: Member vs. challenger of same party in "Jungle Primary" state

      - E: Member vs. member result resulting from redistricting in state with regular primaries

      - F: Off-cycle special election result

     Under the "District/Seat" column, House districts are named by the traditional format (e.g. State-District Number), while Senate seats are named "State"-"Senate Class." For example, AL-CL2 refers to Alabama's Class 2 Senate seat. Any instances of territorial delegates to the House have the suffix "-DL" in front of the territory abbreviation (in this case, the only one is American Samoa, AS). 

     In any New York elections listed above, vote totals by party were combined using election fusion rules based on party endorsements (e.g. Working Families votes going to the Democrat). 

    No presidential election results are available for any territory since none cast votes for President, save the District of Columbia ("Frequently"). 

     Data Sources: Listed above under "methodology"

Discussion and Analysis: 

• 2010: Just two years after Barack Obama's historic victory that was coupled with solid Democratic numbers in the House and Senate, the tables dramatically turned around, with Republicans taking back the House and carving into the Democratic Senate majority. As shown in Table 1, 19 Democratic House incumbents lost by 10% or more, most of whom represented districts that voted for Sen. John McCain (R) or narrowly for Obama in 2008. This includes multiple incumbents who resided in heavily-red districts, including Reps. Frank Kratovil (MD-1), Travis Childs (MS-1), Lincoln Davis (TN-4), and Chet Edwards (TX-17). Several Democratic incumbents lost by double-digits in districts that voted for Obama, which reveals the extent of the 2010 "Red Wave." While I did not include 2004 Presidential Election or 2006 House data, these and most of the other Democratic incumbents listed under "2010" on Table 1 resided in districts that voted for George W. Bush and/or John McCain (R), but were first elected in 2006 or 2008 (Cook, "CONGRESSIONAL). With this in mind, the 2010 results could reflect these districts returning to their pre-Obama situation after voting for Democratic congressional candidates as a result of Obama's coattails in 2008 and the "Blue Wave" of 2006. Oddly, other Democratic House incumbents in similar districts did not lose by double-digits that year, or even won another term despite the national environment (Cook, "2010, and "CONGRESSIONAL"). Across Capitol Hill, incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)'s attempt for another term saw her lose by 20%, which likely foreshadowed fellow Senator Mark Pryor (D)'s similar downfall 4 years later (below). Finally, what seems as an extreme oddity for 2010 makes sense when knowing the context. In this case, Rep. Joseph Cao (R) was a Republican who represented LA-2, a majority-Black and urban district that voted for Obama by almost 50%, more than any McCain-voting district on this list! Rep. Cao won in 2008 due to unique circumstances, as then-incumbent Rep. William Jefferson (D) tried for another term while under investigation for a major scandal involving bribery. Two years later, with Jefferson not running, Rep. Cao easily lost to Cedric Richmond (D) ('Mr. Cao'), who is now a senior advisor in the Biden administration. 
• 2012: Unlike the other elections on here, 2012 was a nationwide redistricting year, which led to incumbents running in new or revamping districts different from their old one. While most lost in partisan primary incumbent vs. incumbent showdowns, three occurred on Election Day in California, and another in a Louisiana post-Election Day runoff. The most notable race was in the new CA-30, where incumbent Reps. Howard Berman (D) and Brad Sherman (D) faced-off in one of the most expensive House races of the year (Quinn). Rep. Sherman defeated Rep. Berman by over 33%, and still holds the seat; I interned for his D.C. office in Fall 2019. Meanwhile, Democratic-led redistricting in Illinois and Maryland resulted in two Republican incumbents being drawn into double-digit Obama districts, causing them to lose by double-digits as well. Finally, in South Florida, Rep. David Rivera (R) was defeated by Democrat Joe Garcia (D) in the redrawn FL-26, which was discussed in detail several weeks ago as part of the post on post-2010 perennial competitive districts. 
• 2014: 2014 ended up being a near-repeat of 2010 overall, although the total number of Republican House gains were far lower since there were relatively fewer targets. Yet, pre-election analysis highlighted a group of vulnerable House Democrats because they held districts that voted for Mitt Romney (R) or barely for Obama in the 2012 presidential election (Sabato). Two Democratic incumbents in this situation, Reps. Bill Enyart (IL-14) and Nick Rahall (WV-3), lost by double-digits, along with several other incumbents in Romney-won districts who lost by less than 10%. It is notable that while GA-12 Rep. John Barrow (D) was also in the same group due to his seat giving Mitt Romney (R) 55% (Nir), the margin of his 2014 defeat was less than 10% (Zengerle), thus not making onto this post's list. As an odd twist similar to some of the results in 2010, NY-24 Rep. Dan Maffei (D) lost to moderate Republican John Katko (R) by double-digits in a district that voted for Obama by almost 16% just two years prior. Subsequently, Rep. Katko has evaded Democratic attempts to take back the district, including in 2020 (Wallace), when NY-24 voted for Biden by 11% (Nir). It is notable that he is one of the most moderate Republicans in Congress, having broken with the party on a number of prominent Trump-era bills and refusing to support Trump's campaign (Weiner). Meanwhile, in the territory of American Samoa, House Delegate Eni F.H. Faleomavaega (D) lost to Amata Coleman Radewagen (R); while the U.S. territories elect delegates to the House, they have no voting power, although contemporary proposals have been put forth to change that (Tucker). As part of the stunning 9-seat Republican Senate gain, Southern Democratic Senators Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu lost by double-digits, thus completing the Deep South's downballot Congressional shift to the Republican Party that had accelerated during the Obama era. 
• 2016: Only one incumbent in the House or Senate lost by double-digits to someone of the opposite party in 2016. Senator Mark Kirk (R) narrowly flipped President Barack Obama's former Senate seat in 2010, which was the subject of ex-Governor Rod Blagojevich's infamous scandal that eventually landed him in federal prison (Allyn; James). Going into 2016, Sen. Kirk was considered vulnerable from the beginning, which showed on Election Day when he lost to Congresswoman and Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth (D) by double-digits (Levy). The other double-digit loss was unusual in that a challenger from the same party unseated the incumbent in the general, which is the result of California's "Jungle Primary" system. In CA-17, incumbent Rep. Mike Honda (D) and progressive Ro Khanna (D) rematched each other, with Khanna heavily ousting the incumbent, who faced questions over previous campaign ethics (Bowman). The following year, I saw ex-Rep. Honda (D) at a Sacramento event while representing the office I was doing a summer internship for. 
• 2018: In 2018, the "Blue Wave" rolled across suburban America, evident by all four Republican House incumbents who lost by double-digits representing largely-suburban districts whose area voted heavily for Hillary Clinton in 2016. As an exception, due to mid-decade redistricting, Rep. Conor Lamb (D) ran in the redistricted PA-17 after his upset victory in PA-18's special election earlier that year, defeating incumbent Rep. Keith Rothfus (Bauder and Lindstrom) despite the redrawn district being light-red. On the flip side, Republicans gained in the Senate because Democrats were defending far more seats, including multiple in heavily-red states. Senator Heidi Heitkamp was the most vulnerable, as she only won her first term by less than 1% in 2012, the state swung heavily towards Trump in 2016, and she faced a top-quality challenger in 2018, At-Large Representative Kevin Cramer (R) (Bowman, and Pathé). 
• 2020: Like 2016, 2020 featured only two Democratic incumbents in Congress who lost re-election bids by double-digits. On the House side, the lone double-digit incumbent loser was conservative Democrat Collin Peterson (D), whose district's increasingly-dark-red tint finally caught up to him in the form of ex-State Senate President Michelle Fischbach (R). During this blog's coverage of the 2020 elections, his race was included as a district to watch as a Congressional bellwether. The other double-digit Congressional loss that year was in the Senate races, where Senator Doug Jones (D), who won an upset victory in the 2017 Special Election against controversial Republican nominee Roy Moore (R), ran for a full term. This time, Jones faced ex-Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville (R), who defeated comeback-seeking Jeff Sessions (R) (who previously held the seat until his resignation in 2017 to become ex-President Trump's Attorney General) in the primary (Mangen). Despite good Democratic turnout, Tuberville won the race with 60% of the vote due to Republican enthusiasm, proving that Jones' 2017 win was a fluke (Chandler).  

Conclusion: One of the main trends that can be seen in Visual 1 is that the number of House incumbents who have lost by double-digits or more has significantly declined since 2010, to the point where the number of House incumbents losing by double-digits in 2010 is higher than the combined number from 2012 through 2020. This likely reflects increasing electoral straight-ticketing and (as a consequence of) both parties focusing on districts with close presidential results in favor of either party. To illustrate the extent of this, only 16 districts (7 Democrats and 9 Republicans) voted for the opposite party for House and Presidential elections in 2020, with all but 3 voting for Trump or Biden by less than 10%, and none by over 15% (Coleman). However, with 2022 being a nationwide redistricting year, it is fair to say that at least several incumbents could lose by double-digits in the general election. This is especially possible when considering that in more than half of all states with more than one district, House redistricting as a whole is still quite partisan despite a recent increase in nonpartisan redistricting institutions (DeSilver). 

Even when considering the smaller number of overall Senators, the low number (6) of Senators who have lost by double-digits since 2008 likely reflects the overall difficulty in defeating incumbent Senators. In line with this, all of the incumbent Senators who lost by double-digits in the post-2008 environment were in states that voted heavily for the other party in the most recent presidential election. Furthermore, Sens. Heitkamp (D), Kirk (R), and Jones (D) all won their previous races under favorable conditions and/or against underwhelming opponents. On the other hand, Sens. Landrieu (D), Lincoln (D), and Pyror (D) all won their last races before 2010 and the massive downballot electoral shifts that have occurred since, especially increased straight-ticketing in federal-level elections. 

Election Data Sources:

DavidNYC. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008." Swing State Project, 15 Dec. 2008, swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/presidential-results-by-congressional-district-20002008. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

"Election Listing." The American Presidency Project, University of California, Santa Barbara, www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

"Election Statistics: 1920 to Present." History, Art, and Archives, United States House of Representatives, history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/. Accessed 14 May 2021. 

Nir, David. "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012." Daily Kos, 19 Nov. 2020, www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020-2016-and-2012. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

"Special Election Official Results." Alabama Secretary of State, www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-night-official-results. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Works Cited: 

Allyn, Bobby. "Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich Released Following Trump's Commutation." National Public Radio, 18 Feb. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/02/18/807057090/trump-commutes-sentence-of-former-illinois-gov-rod-blagojevich. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Bauder, Bob, and Natasha Lindstrom. "Sewickley’s Keith Rothfus loses to Conor Lamb in congressional race." Associated Press, 3 Dec. 2018, apnews.com/article/4b3be6d13a224c4bb906da38cc524e71. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Bowman, Bridget. "Khanna Unseats Honda in California’s 17th District." Roll Call, 9 Nov. 2016, www.rollcall.com/2016/11/09/khanna-unseats-honda-in-californias-17th-district/. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Bowman, Bridget, and Simone Pathé. "The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018: Heidi Heitkamp Moves to Top Spot." Roll Call, 6 Sept. 2018, www.rollcall.com/2018/09/06/the-10-most-vulnerable-senators-in-2018-heidi-heitkamp-moves-to-top-spot/. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Chandler, Kim. "Record Democratic turnout not enough for Jones in Alabama." Associated Press, 4 Nov. 2020, apnews.com/article/election-2020-college-football-donald-trump-alabama-senate-elections-72aec389c8020060ada7334af93d83a2. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Coleman, J. Miles. "2020’s Crossover Districts." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 4 Feb. 2021, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2020s-crossover-districts/. Accessed 16 May 2021.

DeSilver, Drew. "With fewer state governments divided by party than in years past, GOP has edge in redistricting." Pew Research Center, 4 Mar. 2021, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/03/04/with-fewer-state-governments-divided-by-party-than-in-years-past-gop-has-edge-in-redistricting/. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

"Frequently Asked Questions - Electoral College." National Archives and Records Administration, www.archives.gov/electoral-college/faq#:~:text=Program%20web%20site.-,Can%20citizens%20of%20U.S.%20Territories%20vote%20for%20President%3F,Islands)%20to%20vote%20for%20President. Accessed 17 May 2021. 

James, Frank. "Mark Kirk's Illinois Win Makes Obama's Bad Night Worse." National Public Radio, 3 Nov. 2010, www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2010/11/03/131029074/mark-kirk-s-illinois-win-makes-obama-s-night-worse. Accessed 16 May 2021.

Kondik, Kyle. "House 2014: A narrowing battlefield?" Sabato's Crystal Ball, 13 Dec. 2012, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2014-a-narrowing-battlefield/. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Levy, Gabrielle. "Tammy Duckworth Defeats Mark Kirk in Illinois Senate Race." US News and World Report, 8 Nov. 2016, www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2016-11-08/tammy-duckworth-defeats-mark-kirk-in-illinois-senate-race. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Mangan, Dan. "Alabama Senate race offers GOP its best chance to gain a seat as Democrat Doug Jones battles Tommy Tuberville." CNBC, 27 Oct. 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/alabama-senate-race-doug-jones-vs-tommy-tuberville.html. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

"'Mr. Cao' Recalls Rookie Congressman's Unlikely Rise." National Public Radio, 6 Jun. 2012, www.npr.org/2012/06/10/154460910/mr-cao-recalls-rookie-congressmans-unlikely-rise. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Rhodes, Cook. "2010 HOUSE RESULTS: A PORTENT OF INCREASED COMPETITION?" Sabato's Crystal Ball, 21 Dec. 2010, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/frc2010122101/. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

---. "CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS: FROM MINORITY TO MAJORITY… AND BACK AGAIN?" Sabato's Crystal Ball, 24 Sept. 2009, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/frc2009092401/. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Quinn, Howard. "Sherman defeats Berman after bitter fight." Politico, 7 Nov. 2012, www.politico.com/story/2012/11/sherman-defeats-berman-after-bitter-fight-083477. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Tucker, Todd. "Give Nonstates Full Congressional Representation." Politico, 2019, www.politico.com/interactives/2019/how-to-fix-politics-in-america/participation/give-nonstates-full-congressional-representation/. Accessed 17 May 2021. 

Wallace, Seth. "Balter concedes, Katko goes to DC for 4th term." Oswego County News Now, 16 Nov. 2020, www.oswegocountynewsnow.com/news/balter-concedes-katko-goes-to-dc-for-4th-term/article_1a8c18a8-2856-11eb-aa61-ff4767a84d0d.html. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Weiner, Mark. "Rep. John Katko: Trump follower or independent voice? A look at 11 key votes." Syracuse.com, 26 Sept. 2019, www.syracuse.com/news/erry-2018/07/aed9a4ab9f1853/rep-john-katko-trump-follower.html. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

Zengerle, Jason. "The Death of the Southern White Democrat Hurts African-Americans the Most." The New Republic, 8 Nov. 2014, newrepublic.com/article/120212/john-barrows-2014-midterm-loss-end-white-southern-democrats. Accessed 16 May 2021. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record