Twelve Potential 2020 House and Senate Bellwether Races to Watch

Author's Notes: As I indicated on last Sunday's post, any discussion of the 2020 elections below will not have any speculation of how SCOTUS Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg's death will impact the following elections, both out of respect for the late Supreme Court justice and because current conditions are changing significantly. It seems likely that such conditions may change even more now that President Trump has named his nominee and it seems likely that the formal confirmation process will begin. 

Tonight's post was posted at 8:40pm PST (8pm normally) because I needed additional time to add last-minute information that I felt would benefit this post. This change is temporary, as I will continue to upload at 8pm PST from now on unless otherwise noted. 

(and yes, I know that technically, I explore 13 races in total, but I got the title's number because I combined two races into one discussion for having a similar theme).

11/29/2020 UPDATE: While making the post-election analysis talking about the election results from the bellwethers listed below, I found a typographical error I made with one of the districts. The paragraph where I was talking about "Colorado's 5th district" is actually in reference to Colorado's 3rd district. 

Twelve Potential 2020 House and Senate Bellwether Races to Watch

Introduction: With the Congressional primary season several weeks behind us, the focus has now shifted to the general election, which is now just over a month away at this point. While the presidential election is the most watched and followed of this year's elections (like normal), there will be many critical downballot Congressional races whose results have the potential to form the narrative of 2020's down-ballot elections and socio-political trends. A sampling of 6 each of likely close House and Senate races, and what national and regional electoral trends or questions they may answer are included below: 

Senate Races:

• Georgia Regular Senate (Can the Democrats' "rising coalition" prevail in the Deep South?): While Georgia has been a fairly-red state for the last few decades, Hillary Clinton's massive surge in the Atlanta suburbs followed by 2018 Gubernatorial Candidate Stacey Abrams' even larger performance as part of her close statewide defeat, seem to solidify the narrative that this Deep South state is increasingly competitive. Much of this Democratic growth is two-fold, a result of the state's increasingly diverse population and once-Republican college-educated White voters in the Atlanta suburbs becoming more Democratic (Herndon). This year, Senator David Purdue (R) is running for his second term, and is facing filmmaker Jon Ossoff (D), who previously ran for and narrowly lost GA-6's widely-watched special election in 2017. Recent polling has shown the race competitive, but with Purdue at a slight-to-modest edge (Hill and Panetta, "What you"). Complicating this race is Georgia's electoral rule that a winning candidate must clear 50% on election day or place in the top two and win a runoff ("Runoff Election"). 
• Iowa (Is the Upper Midwest still politically-flexible or is it truly becoming more Republican?): Like Sen. Daines (discussed below), Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was first elected in the 2014 Republican Senate wave, winning the state by almost 10% (Arkin, "Poll: Democrat Greenfield"). Two years after Ernst's victory, Trump turned Iowa from a somewhat-blue state to a near-solid red state overnight with a near-10% victory margin (Greenwood, "Trump"). This swing towards the Republicans has been compounded by Democrats' failure to take back the governorship in 2018, despite national winds at their back and their candidate (Fred Hubball) running close in polling (Ferris). Yet, in the same year, Democratic House candidates flipped 2 Obama-Trump House seats and came close in another district (held by controversial Republican Steve King (R), who lost his primary earlier this year), with the fourth seat already being Democratic-held (Greenwood, "Trump"). Overall, this race could provide an indicator of how flexible the Upper Midwest still is, as Iowa has been deemed to be politically-flexible by pundits and analysts (Kondik). Regardless, national Democrats see this state as a potential Senate pickup due to its aforementioned past political history and their candidate, moderate businesswoman Theresa Greenfield (D) (Rogers). Current polling shows the race close, with neither candidate having a strong edge (Arkin). 
• Kansas (Can the Democrats successfully break into longtime red states?): Out of the 50 states, Kansas currently holds the longest streak of not electing Senators from a single party, as no Democrats have represented the state in the upper chamber since the Great Depression (Rakich and Skelley). Yet, some unusual circumstances of the last few cycles have caused some pundits to wonder if the Sunflower State may be starting to become less red. In 2016, Hillary Clinton slightly improved over Obama's 2012 performance, largely due to improving in the heavily-educated Kansas City suburbs on the Kansas side. Two years later, Democrats flipped the KC suburban House seat KS-3 and Kansas's governorship, largely through increasing their share of the educated suburban vote. This year, longtime Senator Pat Roberts (R) chose to retire, leading to a drawn-out Republican primary battle between controversial ex-Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) (who lost the 2018 gubernatorial election to Democrat Laura Kelly) and KS-1 Representative Steve Marshall (R) (Hornstein). Marshall eventually won the Republican primary to face ex-Republican and state Representative Barbara Bollier (D). Despite Democratic claims that a Marshall primary victory would have made this race more difficult for Bollier, recent polling has shown a close race between the two, but with Marshall at a slight edge (Nilsen, "The ways"). While not critical for Democrats to take back the Senate, this race could provide clues as to whether and how Democrats can compete in longtime solid red states like Kansas where Democrats have potential, even if such races may still be difficult. 
• Maine (Can moderate New England Republicanism survive in today's polarized era?): Ever since their first Senate election in 1996, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) has been heralded as a popular moderate Republican willing to vote across party lines, thus allowing her to win easy re-elections since. However, her controversial votes to confirm SCOTUS Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 and to not convict President Trump earlier this year have energized Democrats, leading to Collins facing the most difficult race of her career (Bailey). The Democratic candidate here is Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, whose campaign emphasizes her ability to better represent the state better in the modern era than Collins (Nilsen, "The Vox"). Polling is showing the race to be close, with Gideon leading in more recent polling (Bailey). Like Georgia, Maine features a complicating electoral process, where a candidate must receive 50% to win, or "ranked choice voting" kicks in, where candidates placing above the top two are dropped and their votes redistributed until a candidate has 50% (Arkin, "Poll: Susan"). 
• Montana (Can popular red-state Democratic governors still win Senate races?): In 2014, Montana's Class 2 Senate seat flipped after the Democrats had to withdrawal their original nominee due to a plagiarism scandal and Republican nominee Steve Daines solidified his campaign into a win. In the history of popular vote Senate elections, no Republican had previously held the Class 2 Montana Senate seat (Kondik and Skelley). Yet, 4 years later, Montana's other Senator, Jon Tester (D), won a modest re-election, showcasing the state's flexibility (Samuels). This year, popular moderate Democratic Governor Steve Bullock jumped into the race relatively late to challenge Daines, but instantly hit the ground running, with initial polling showing a potentially-favorable environment for him (Coleman and Kondik; Olsen). Since then, newer polling has indicated Daines with a slight lead, but with the potential for Bullock to still emerge victorious (Olsen). 
• South Carolina (How powerful will the African-American vote be in more conservative Southern states?): To the east of Georgia, longtime South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham (R), whose race was originally thought to be "somewhat competitive," is suddenly facing the most difficult campaign of his career (Dawsey and Dixon). His opponent is S.C.'s former African-American Democratic Party Chair Jaime Harrison (D), who has been courting the African-American vote and raising a significant amount of money (Greenwood, "Warning"). The latter has caused the incumbent to express serious concern to supporters, which reinforces the narrative that this race has become more competitive than expected (Shepard, "'Help Me'"). Graham was a significant target from the beginning, with Democrats criticizing the incumbent for his switch from being more moderate to becoming a hardcore Trump supporter (Greenwood, "Warning"). In addition to African-American voters, Harrison and National Democrats have been courting suburban voters who increasingly detest both Graham and Trump (Dawsey and Dixon; Rab). Yet, in the end, if Harrison is to unseat Graham, high African-American turnout and margins will be key, something this race will likely reveal if it is close in the end (Rab). Recent polling has shown the race close, with Graham at a slight advantage (Greenwood, "Warning"). 

House Races: 

• Colorado's 5th (Are QAnon-supporting candidates too toxic even for moderately-red districts?): One of the most notable upsets of the 2020 Congressional primary season was that of Lauren Boebert, a supporter of "QAnon" conspiracy theories (Axelrod, "Colorado"). Boebert successfully denied incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton (R) renomination in a district that has been represented by a Democrat as late as 2010 (Murray). Boebert joins a surge of 2020 Republican Congressional candidates supporting (the heavily-debunked) "QAnon," including controversial GA-14 Republican nominee Majorie Taylor Greene (Stracqualursi). Yet, unlike the others, Boebert is running in a district that is only modestly-red, as it includes several significant Democratic zones such as ski resort towns and majority-Hispanic areas (Axelrod, "Colorado"). Boebert faces Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush, who challenged Tipton in 2018 and lost by 8. A recent poll has showed the race to be close at both the House and Presidential levels (Wingerter, "Poll"). This race has the potential to reveal the potential ceiling faced by QAnon-supporting candidates in more moderately-red districts, especially ones with significant Democratic support and a past history of being more open to supporting Democrats. 
• Florida's 26th (How will Florida's critical Cuban-American population vote this year?): While Hispanic voters as a whole tend to support Democrats, Florida's Cuban-American population tends to vote Republican to varying degrees (Gomez et. al). In 2018, Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell narrowly flipped the heavily-Cuban FL-26, unseating moderate Republican Carlos Curbelo (Daugherty; Jacobson). However, Muscarel-Powell faces another strong opponent this time around, Republican Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez, whose position has improved due to polling indicating growing Cuban support for Trump (Shepard, "Trump"). While pundits generally have the incumbent with a slight edge, this race is expected to be competitive and will likely give indications of Cuban-American voting patterns in 2020, considering Florida is an electoral college battleground once again, and because the Cuban-American population will likely be critical to whoever wins this race and Florida as a whole (Gomez et al.).  
• Indiana's 5th and Missouri's 2nd (Will the normally-Republican suburbs of the Lower Midwest falter?): Anchored in suburban Indianapolis, IN-5 has recently trended more Democratic because of its highly-educated population, a group wary of Trump (Wren). In 2018, despite losing his Senate seat, ex-Senator Joe Donnelly won IN-5 by less than a point, performing unusually well for a Democrat in suburban Indianapolis (Hall and Panetta, "Everything"). Going into 2020, incumbent Representative Susan Brooks (R) decided to retire, with local Ukranian-born State Representative Victoria Spartz gaining the Republican nomination (Wren). Recent polling has shown Democratic candidate Christina Hale, another state representative (Wren), winning by 5% (Axelrod, "Democrat"). Meanwhile, in suburban St. Louis, MO-2 voted for Trump, but incumbent Rep. Ann Wagner (R) almost lost in 2018, and is facing another competitive race against State Representative Jill Schupp (Benchaabane). Like IN-5, then-incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill won MO-2 while losing the state (Rosenbaum). Both of these races could likely indicate if traditionally-Republican suburbs in the Lower Midwest outside Chicagoland such as these will begin to break down in 2020 and align more with the Democrats. 
• Minnesota's 7th (Can the Republicans permanently transfer Trump's 2016 rural White Midwest gains downballot?): For 15 terms (30 years), Representative Collin Peterson (D) has won the majority rural and working-class territory of Western Minnesota, despite the district being very red and conservative otherwise. This held true even in 2016, as Peterson won another term on the same night President Trump won the district by 30%. However, this cycle has proven to be Peterson's most difficult yet due to the Republicans nominating a strong opponent, ex-Minnesota Senate President Michelle Fischback (Easley). This seat will provide a clue about whether Democrats can truly still compete in similar districts during the current era, and on the flip side, whether Republicans will be able to solidify Trump's 2016 gains in regions like MN-7 downballot. 
• Oklahoma's 5th (Was this 2018 Democratic upset victory a black swan or indicative of something larger?): In one of 2018's most notable House upsets, Democratic candidate Kendra Horn won this Oklahoma City-based seat against incumbent Steve Russell (R), becoming the first Democrat in 44 years to win the seat (Wingerter, "Oklahoma"). Republican resolve to take back the seat has been strong from this cycle's beginning, with many Republican pundits believing that her 2018 victory was a fluke. This time, Horn's Republican challenger is State Senator Stephanie Bice, who won on a relatively moderate platform (Casteel). Ongoing socio-demographic changes in Oklahoma City, particularly a recent interest in Democratic voting in 2020's presidential primary, have made Democrats more optimistic about this race (Coleman). Generally, whether Horn can achieve a second term may indicate not only whether Oklahoma City may be becoming more purple or even light-blue, but may also indicate the extent to which modern Democrats can compete in similar cities that remain more Republican-leaning. 
• Texas's 22nd (Is George H.W. Bush's former seat an indicator of Texas's political future?): In recent years, this suburban district outside Houston has become more educated and diverse, particularly with Asian-Americans (Shankar). Both of these trends led it to vote heavily for Mitt Romney in 2012, but only voted for Trump by 8% in 2016 (Pathe; Shankar). In 2018, incumbent Republican Pete Olson (R) almost lost to former multi-lingual ex-State Department official Sri Preston Kulkarni (D), causing Olson to announce retirement for the 2020 cycle (Shankar). On the same night, Democratic Senate candidate Beto o'Rourke lost TX-22 by less than 1%, further solidifying its potential to be a future battleground (Kondik). Kashiri is running again, and is facing Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls, who came out of a nasty Republican primary (Livingston and Svitek). Recently, the DCCC has begun extensively reach out to the district's Asian-American population by airing ads in Chinese and Hindi, while Kashiri has been raising an extensive amount of money and has used his multi-lingual skills to reach out to voters (Pathe; Shankar). On Election Night 2020, this race, along with several other Texas House races, will give an indication as to how far the Democrats can go in Texas, especially considering the socio-demographic changes noted earlier. 

Honorable Mentions I didn't pick for the lists above, but considered:

• Senate: Alaska, Michigan, North Carolina, Texas
• House: AZ-6, CA-21, FL-13, NC-8, NE-2, NY-2, PA-10, UT-2, VA-5

Works Cited:

Akin, Stephanie. "GOP runoff will decide challenger to Oklahoma Rep. Kendra Horn." Roll Call, 30 Jun. 2020, www.rollcall.com/2020/06/30/gop-runoff-will-decide-challenger-to-oklahoma-rep-kendra-horn/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Arkin, James. "Poll: Democrat Greenfield has slight lead over Ernst in Iowa Senate race." Politico, 19 Sept. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/09/19/poll-democrat-greenfield-has-slight-lead-over-ernst-in-iowa-senate-race-418591. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Axelrod, Tal. "Colorado GOP Rep. Scott Tipton defeated in primary upset," The Hill, 30 Jun. 2020, 

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/505362-republican-lauren-boebert-ousts-rep-scott-tipton-in-colorado-primary. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

---. "Democrat holds 5-point lead in key Indiana House race: DCCC poll." The Hill, 19 Aug. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/512749-democrat-holds-5-point-lead-in-key-indiana-house-race-dccc-poll. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

---. "Poll: Susan Collins trails slightly in Maine Senate race." Politico, 21 Sept. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/09/21/susan-collins-maine-senate-race-poll-419452. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Bailey, Philip. "Poll: GOP Sen. Susan Collins lags in Maine, where voters overwhelmingly prefer a delay in filling RBG's seat." USA Today, 25 Sept. 2020, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/25/poll-susan-collins-trails-sara-gideon-voters-want-delay-rbg-seat/3525057001/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Benchaabane, Nassim. "U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner agrees to debate Democratic challenger Jill Schupp." St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 11 Sept. 2020, www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/u-s-rep-ann-wagner-agrees-to-debate-democratic-challenger-jill-schupp/article_039c68ac-16b5-5339-b37e-62d31375d54a.html. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Casteel, Chris. "With Bice nomination, Republicans get their much-anticipated shot at Horn." The Oklahoman, 27 Aug. 2020, oklahoman.com/article/5670121/with-bice-nomination-republicans-get-their-much-anticipated-shot-at-horn. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Coleman, Miles. "Turnout in the 2020 Democratic Primary: Some Clues for the Fall." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 26 Mar. 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2020-turnout/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Coleman, Miles, and Kyle Kondik. "The Senate: Looking Beyond the “Core Four”" Sabato's Crystal Ball, 30 Apr. 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-looking-beyond-the-core-four/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Daugherty, Alex. "In Miami’s tightest U.S. House race, Gimenez, Mucarsel-Powell differ sharply on policy." Miami Herald, 9 Sept. 2020, www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article245466585.html. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Dawsey, Josh, and Chris Dixon. "Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, faces toughest reelection challenge in S.C." The Washington Post, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-graham-trump-south-carolina/2020/09/10/e54ed1e0-ee1b-11ea-a21a-0fbbe90cfd8c_story.html. Accessed 10 Sept. 2020. 

Easley, Jonathan. "Peterson faces fight of his career in deep-red Minnesota district." The Hill, 11 Sept. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/515910-peterson-faces-fight-of-his-career-in-deep-red-minnesota-district. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Ferris, Sarah. "Republican Kim Reynolds reelected as governor of Iowa." Politico, 7 Nov. 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/11/07/kim-reynolds-vs-fred-hubbell-iowa-governor-race-results-2018-965602. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Gomez, Allen, Ledyard King, and Rebecca Morin. "Biden is getting trounced with Cuban American voters in Florida, a trend that could tip the state to Trump." USA Today, 15 Sept. 2020, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/15/joe-biden-lags-trump-cuban-american-voters-latinos-florida/5756126002/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Greenwood, Max. "Trump, Biden deadlocked in Iowa: poll." The Hill, 22 Sept. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517524-trump-biden-deadlocked-in-iowa-survey. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

---. "Warning signs flash for Lindsey Graham in South Carolina." The Hill, 19 Sept. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517144-warning-signs-flash-for-lindsey-graham-in-south-carolina. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Hall, Madison, and Grace Panetta. "Everything you need to know about Indiana's 5th Congressional District Race between Christina Hale and Victoria Spartz." Business Insider, 29 Aug. 2020, www.businessinsider.com.au/indiana-5th-district-house-election-christina-hale-victoria-spartz-2020-2020-8. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

---. "What you need to know about Georgia's US Senate election between David Perdue and Jon Ossoff." Business Insider Australia, 21 Sept. 2020, www.businessinsider.com/georgia-senate-race-david-perdue-vs-jon-ossoff-polls-fundraising-2020-8. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Herndon, Astead. "‘The Future Is Blue, Not Purple’: Is This the Year Georgia Flips?" New York Times, 9 Jun. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/us/politics/georgia-primary-election-senate-race-jon-ossoff.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Hornstein, Jacob. "Kansas Senate: Room for an Upset?." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 11 Jun. 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/kansas-senate-room-for-an-upset/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Kondik, Kyle. "The Senate: How 2018 sets up 2020." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 27 Sept. 2018, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-how-2018-sets-up-2020/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Jacobson, Louis. "After the primary, Florida Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell moves up in vulnerability rankings." Tampa Bay Times, 8 Sept. 2020, www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2020/09/08/after-the-primary-florida-rep-debbie-mucarsel-powell-moves-up-in-vulnerability-rankings/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Kondik, Kyle. "The House: Democratic Murmurings in the Texas Suburbs – and Elsewhere." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 2 Jul. 2020, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-democratic-murmurings-in-the-texas-suburbs-and-elsewhere/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Kondik, Kyle, and Geoffrey Skelley. "14 from ’14: Quick Takes on the Midterm." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 13 Nov. 2014, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/14-from-14-quick-takes-on-the-midterm/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Livingston, Abby, and Patrick Svitek. "Texas was always key to Democrats’ 2020 congressional ambitions. Less than three months from Election Day, their confidence is growing." The Texas Tribute, 6 Aug. 2020, www.texastribune.org/2020/08/06/texas-democrats-congress-2020/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Murray, Jon. "Shooters Grill owner Lauren Boebert knocks off U.S. Rep. Scott Tipton in GOP primary." The Denver Post, 30 Jun. 2020, www.denverpost.com/2020/06/30/scott-tipton-3rd-congressional-primary/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Nilsen, Ella. "The Vox Senate interview: Sara Gideon is Susan Collins’s most serious challenger in decades." Vox, 22 Sept. 2020, www.vox.com/21445343/sara-gideon-susan-collins-challenger-maine-senate. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

---. "The ways Democrats could retake the Senate majority, explained." Vox, 14 Sept. 2020, www.vox.com/21403958/most-competitive-senate-races-2020. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Olsen, Henry. "Deep-red Montana could be Democrats’ biggest catch in 2020. Can they land it?" The Washington Post, 15 Sept. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/15/deep-red-montana-could-be-democrats-biggest-catch-2020-can-they-land-it/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Pathe, Simone. "The 10 House districts most likely to flip in 2020." CNN, 1 Sept. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/politics/election-2020-house-races/index.html. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Rab, Lisa. "Is Lindsey Graham Actually in Trouble in South Carolina?" Politico, 11 Aug. 2020, www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/11/jaime-harrison-lindsey-graham-south-carolina-391886. Accessed 27 Aug. 2020. 

Rakich, Nathaniel, and Geoffrey Skelley. "What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Kansas, Michigan And Missouri." FiveThirtyEight, 4 Aug. 2020, fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-you-need-to-know-about-todays-elections-in-kansas-michigan-and-missouri/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Rogers, Alex. "Republicans portray Democrats as anti-police in final weeks of Senate contests." CNN, 27 Sept. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/09/27/politics/policing-senate-races-maine-iowa/index.html. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Rosenbaum, Jason. "Schupp Jumps Into Missouri 2nd Congressional District Race Against Wagner." St. Louis Public Radio, 4 Dec. 2019, news.stlpublicradio.org/show/st-louis-on-the-air/2019-12-04/schupp-jumps-into-missouri-2nd-congressional-district-race-against-wagner. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

"Runoff Election." Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Runoff_election. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Samuels, Brett. "Pence seeks to boost Daines in critical Montana Senate race." The Hill, 14 Sept. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/administration/516385-pence-seeks-to-boost-daines-in-critical-montana-senate-race. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Shankar, Soumya. "Democrats hope to turn Texas blue — in part by banking on Asian Americans." NBC, 4 Sept. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/democrats-hope-turn-texas-blue-part-banking-asian-americans-n1239099. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Shepard, Steven. "‘Help me’: Graham begs for cash in tighter-than-expected race." Politico, 25 Sept. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/09/25/lindsey-graham-begs-for-cash-421952. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

---. "Trump running out of time to turn around 2020 campaign." Politico, 9 Sept. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/09/09/2020-election-forecast-410377. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Stracqualursi, Veronica. "The congressional candidates who have embraced the baseless QAnon conspiracy theory." CNN, 12 Aug. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/08/12/politics/qanon-congressional-candidates/index.html. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Wingerter, Justin. "Kendra Horn upsets Steve Russell in an Oklahoma City stunner." The Oklahoman, 6 Nov. 2018, oklahoman.com/article/5614244/kendra-horn-upsets-steve-russell-in-an-oklahoma-city-stunner. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

---. "Poll: U.S. House race between Boebert and Mitsch Bush in western Colorado is tied." The Denver Post, 13 Aug. 2020, www.denverpost.com/2020/08/13/3rd-congressional-district-colorado-boebert-mitsch-bush/. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

Wren, Adam. "Will The Fifth District Follow America’s Suburbs Left?" Indianapolis Monthly, 27 Sept. 2020, www.indianapolismonthly.com/news-and-opinion/politics/will-the-fifth-district-follow-americas-suburbs-left. Accessed 27 Sept. 2020. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record