Trump's Second Impeachment in a Larger Context

Trump's Second Impeachment in a Larger Context

Yesterday afternoon, the Senate unexpectedly decided to end the second impeachment trial against ex-President Donald Trump (R). The roll call vote featured all 50 Democrats (including independents aligning with them) and 7 Republicans voting to convict. Despite not reaching the 60-vote threshold to convict Trump, this vote and trial added more historic "firsts" to this historic and unprecedented trial (Zhou). 

As summed up by a post-vote Vox article, the 57 Senate votes to convict represent the most bipartisan impeachment conviction bloc in American history. In previous trials, with the exception of Sen. Romney (R-UT) in 2019, only members of the opposite party voted to convict the president subject to impeachment (Zhou). In a pre-impeachment trial blog post, I detailed Senators to watch as swing votes, which included Sens. Romney, Susan Collins (R-ME), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Pat Toomey (R-PA), and Ben Sasse (R-NE). These five Senators all voted to convict in the end, and were joined by Sens. Richard Burr (R-NC), who is retiring next year (Timm), and Bill Cassidy (R-LA), whose vote may have been predicted by his negative vote questioning the trial's legitimacy (Carney). This unprecedented bipartisan conviction vote follows-up on the House impeachment article vote, where an equally unprecedented 10 members from the impeached President's party (Republicans in this case) voted to send the Article of Impeachment to the Senate (Sheth). While Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) expressed personal disdain for Trump's alleged words and actions, he voted to acquit on the basis that impeaching an official after leaving their office was unconstitutional (Manu and Rogers). Other Republican Senators who voted to acquit generally voted based on this principle, regardless of how they reacted to the events of 1/6 (Zhou). 

Despite these unprecedented figures, the impeachment votes in both chambers reveals that despite the events of 1/6, Trump remains the "alpha" of the party and continues to have significant "soft power" on Republican elected officials through this base. A recent poll by Gallup backs this up, showing that Trump's approval rating among Republicans was 82% and that a majority of Republicans still believe Trump's views on the 2020 election (Peoples). The 10 House Republicans who voted to send the impeachment article across the hill have come under fire from state and local Republican institutions, facing censuring and potential primary challenges in 2022 (Everett and Levine). Now, the Senators who voted to convict Trump are facing or could face similar actions (Peoples), although two (Burr and Toomey) are retiring next year (Timm), while Cassidy, Collins and Sasse are 6 years away from their next election (@Redistrict). Yet, dissent does continue among some prominent Republicans, including those who used to be close to Trump. For example, in a post-impeachment vote interview, prominent Republican Nikki Haley (who is being speculated to run in 2024) stated that even the acquittal unofficially disqualifies him from running for office in the future, especially relative to the alleged crimes Trump committed (Peoples). 

While the Senate impeachment trial is over, other investigations into Trump, his comments and alleged conduct related to the 2020 elections, and the events of 1/6 are ongoing and/or awaiting. In particular, the office of Georgia's Secretary of State has been investigating the "Trump-Raffensperger" phone call where Trump is alleged to have hinted at interfering in Georgia's election processes in advance of January's twin Senate runoffs. Furthermore, Fulton County, Georgia (Atlanta) has opened a similar investigation of Trump and the phone call (So). Finally, as detailed in the pre-impeachment trial post, other ideas for holding Trump accountable have been floated in both chambers, including censuring Trump and invoking the 14th amendment to prohibit Trump from running for future office for participating in a rebellion or insurrection against the country. 

Regardless of what happens from here, including other investigations and consequences, the second impeachment of ex-President Donald Trump (R) is finished. 

Works Cited: 

Bacon Jr., Perry. "With Trump’s Acquittal, The Fragility Of America’s Democracy Is Even More Clear." FiveThirtyEight, 13 Feb. 2021, fivethirtyeight.com/features/with-trumps-acquittal-the-fragility-of-americas-democracy-is-even-more-clear/. Accessed 14 Feb. 2021. 

Carney, Jordain. "Senate votes trial constitutional; six Republicans vote 'yes'." The Hill, 9 Feb. 2021, thehill.com/homenews/senate/538087-senate-votes-trial-constitutional-six-republicans-vote-yes?fbclid=IwAR3wqWJdt5b6rUPrQ5_j4-FZFyv_uRehBahSNJsEdEOoDIMW9mjxeKDwOm4. Accessed 14 Feb. 2021. 

Everett, Burgess, and Marianne Levine. "Senate GOP gripped by conviction vote intrigue." Politico, 12 Feb. 2021, www.politico.com/news/2021/02/12/republicans-weighting-conviction-trump-impeachment-468862. Accessed 14 Feb. 2021. 

Manu, Raju, and Alex Rogers. "McConnell blames Trump but voted not guilty anyway." CNN, 13 Feb. 2021, www.cnn.com/2021/02/13/politics/mitch-mcconnell-acquit-trump/index.html. Accessed 14 Feb. 2021. 

Peoples, Steve. "After impeachment acquittal, Trump remains dominant in Republican Party." ABC 30, 14 Feb. 2021, abc30.com/10338947/?ex_cid=TA_KFSN_TW&taid=60294c88bbd8010001ee5afc&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter. Accessed 14 Feb. 2021. 

@Redistrict. "There's little doubt the verdict would have been quite different if all senators...1) were retiring (Burr, Toomey) 2) had a full six years ahead of them (Cassidy, Sasse, Collins) 3) came from a jungle primary state (Cassidy, ~Murkowski) 4) voted by secret ballot (obviously)." Twitter, 13 Feb. 2021, 1:47pm, twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1360707201019609090. Accessed 14 Feb. 2021. 

Sheth, Sonam. "Trump's 2nd impeachment is the most bipartisan in US history." Business Insider, 13 Jan. 2021, www.businessinsider.com/trump-second-impeachment-most-bipartisan-in-us-history-2021-1. Accessed 14 Feb. 2021. 

So, Linda. "Georgia Secretary of State's office launches probe into Trump's election phone call." Reuters, 8 Feb. 2021, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-georgia-investigation-exclu-idUSKBN2A82HO. Accessed 14 Feb. 2021. 

Timm, Jane C. "7 Republicans found Trump 'guilty' of inciting Capitol riot. They explain their vote." NBC News, 13 Feb. 2021, www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/7-republicans-found-trump-guilty-inciting-capitol-riot-they-explain-n1257896. Accessed 14 Feb. 2021. 

Zhou, Li. "7 Senate Republicans vote to convict Trump — the most bipartisan impeachment trial verdict ever." Vox, 13 Feb. 2021, www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2021/2/13/22279879/7-senate-republicans-convict-trump-romney-collins-murkowski-sasse-cassidy-burr-toomey. Accessed 14 Feb. 2021. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record