Trump Impeachment 2.0: The Current Situation, Senators to Watch, and Proposed Alternatives
Introduction: On January 13, 2021, Donald Trump (R) made history as the first President to be impeached twice, as the House of Representatives sent the Article of Impeachment accusing the President of supporting a domestic insurrection ("Trump impeached"). The House impeachment vote also made history, with a record 10 House members from the President's party voting in favor of impeachment, joining all 222 House Democrats. In the past three House Impeachment votes (Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump's first impeachment), no more than 5 members from the President's party voted in favor of impeaching the then-President on any charge (Sheth). The lone Article of Impeachment this time accuses President Trump of supporting a domestic insurrection, thus violating the oath of office ("Trump impeached"). To convict and remove President Trump from office, 67 Senators will need to vote to convict, or two-thirds of the Senate (Williams). Like the first time Trump was impeached, speculation has begun about what outcomes are possible and most likely to come out of the Senate, especially how Senate Republicans will vote on the charges (Jalonick).
Recap on Past Presidential Impeachments:
- President Andrew Johnson (D) (1867-1868): Almost 90 years into America's existence as a nation, and coming out of both the contentious Civil War and President Abraham Lincoln's assassination, President Andrew Johnson became the first President to face impeachment (Riley). As an ex-Democrat who joined Lincoln's ticket, Johnson clashed with Congressional Republicans who felt that he was too soft on Reconstruction ("The impeachment of"). Congressional Republicans passed several acts to contain Johnson, including one that forbid him from firing cabinet secretaries. President Johnson challenged this by firing Secretary of War Edward Stanton, causing the House to pass impeachment articles against him. In the Senate, President Johnson was narrowly acquitted, as one more vote would have been needed to remove him from office ("The impeachment of"; The man").
- President Bill Clinton (D) (1998-1999): The impeachment articles passed against President Clinton were not directly related to any of his famous scandals (including "LewinskyGate"), but were related to Clinton's alleged responses to the Congressional investigations into his scandals. During and after the Congressional investigations, President Clinton was accused of lying about, and trying to cover up the Lewinsky scandal. With these accusations in mind, the House passed two Articles of Impeachment against Clinton, one alleging perjury, and the other alleging obstruction of justice. The Senate voted to acquit him on both articles, with some Republicans joining all 45 Democrats (Riley; Wolf).
- Donald Trump (R) (2019-2020) (first impeachment): In September 2019, a phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was leaked by a State Department whistleblower. The whistleblower alleged that in the phone call, President Trump appeared to suggest that military aid to Ukraine would be withheld unless they investigated (now President-Elect) Joe Biden's son Hunter for allegedly gaining a seat on Ukraine's energy company Burisma based on his family name instead of his credentials (Prokop and Yglesias). Before this, multiple Articles of Impeachment had already been tabled in the House, but none gained significant support from a majority of the Democratic caucus before September 2019. However, when this scandal was unveiled, Democratic support for impeachment increased, leading to Speaker Pelosi initiating a series of hearings about the scandal (Naylor). In late December 2019, the House voted on two articles of impeachment sent by the House Judiciary Committee, with one alleging abuse of power, and another alleging that Trump tried to obstruct the Congressional investigations into the scandal. All House Republicans were against the articles, while two Democrats voted against Article I (abuse of power), and were joined by a third in voting against Article II (obstruction). (Herb and Raju). One month later, the Senate voted on the impeachment articles, with all 48 Senate Democrats voting to convict. They were joined by Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), who became the first Senator from an impeached President's party voting to convict on Article I, although Romney rejoined his Senate colleagues for Article II (Booker). Without a two-thirds majority, Trump was acquitted on both charges.
The Current Senate Situation: On Tuesday, the Article of Impeachment was carried to the Senate, and the Senators took their oaths, thus beginning the trial. The main trial itself will start on February 9th, allowing the Impeachment Managers and Trump's legal team to form their arguments (Jansen). Assuming all Democrats support conviction, at least 17 Republican Senators will have to vote to convict Trump (Barrett et al.).
Debate over Constitutionality: One day later, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) tabled a vote that questioned the trial's constitutionality, as it involves an ex-President being impeached. Five Senate Republicans joined the 50 Democrats, thus killing the attempt. Despite the loss, Sen. Paul and others claimed that the vote shows evidence that the impeachment trial would not succeed due to the lack of significant Republican crossover. However, Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD) responded by noting that this vote did not bind Senators for the actual trial vote, while others wanted a formal debate on the trial's constitutionality before the trial (Barrett et al.). Recently, a letter signed by 150 legal scholars and experts asserted that nothing in the Constitution prohibits the impeachment of a Federal official after they leave office, noting that a successful impeachment not only removes officeholders, but prohibits them from holding office in the future (Bertrand).
Swing Senators to Watch: As of Jan. 28th, no Republican Senators have explicitly committed to convicting President Trump, but several have hinted at it. Among those who have include Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) (who is retiring in 2022), Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and Rep. Ben Sasse (R-NE). In addition, Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Mitt Romney (R-UT) harshly condemned Trump for the violence in the Capitol without hinting at their impeachment vote (Jackson); note that out of these five, Romney was the only one who voted to convict during the last trial (on Article I only). The most critical Republican Senator to watch is Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who recently stated that he believes Trump committed impeachable offenses. His vote could likely be critical due to his status as the Senate Republican leader. There has been speculation that if he votes to convict, it could lead to other Republican Senators joining him (Zhou).
On the Democrats' side, the most important Senator to watch is Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), a moderate Democrat who is now a swing vote in the Senate. Recently, Manchin spoke in favor of impeachment while voicing concern that the trial could get in the way of other important Senate priorities such as confirming President Biden's nominees (Thomas). However, Manchin voted against Sen. Paul's resolution discussed above, further solidifying his position for now (Sanchez).
Alternative Paths to Holding Trump Accountable?: As part of the debate over the current impeachment trial, alternative paths have been put forward as a means to hold Trump accountable regardless of the trial's outcome.
- Censure: Congressional talk about censuring Trump has circulated extensively since the Capitol Riots, which are only verbal reprimands from Congress. As a proposed alternative to House Impeachment, a group of Republican House members put forward a resolution to censure Trump, including several others who ended up voting on impeachment (Axelrod). In the aftermath of the vote on Sen. Paul's resolution, Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Tim Kaine (D-VA) have been crafting a Senate Censure resolution that includes language from the 14th Amendment (explained below) (Pecorin and Turner). Despite the rough path censure faces in the Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has hinted that censure will be heavily-considered if the Senate trial fails to convict Trump (Carney, "Trump censure").
- 14th Amendment: Among other provisions, the 14th Amendment contains a provision whereby an individual can be disqualified from holding public office for participating in a rebellion or insurrection against the United States. To disqualify, both Houses of Congress would have to give a majority of votes to disqualify, and 2/3rds majority to remove the disqualification if they choose (Zelikow). Multiple Senate Democrats have floated the idea in recent days, especially with continuing uncertainty over the impeachment trial (Carney, "Democrats float").
Works Cited:
Axelrod, Tad. "GOP lawmakers introduce resolution to censure Trump over Capitol riot." The Hill, 12 Jan. 2021, thehill.com/homenews/house/533953-gop-lawmakers-introduce-resolution-to-censure-trump-over-capitol-attack. Accessed 28 Jan. 2021.
Barrett, Ted, Clare Foran, and Manu Raju. "Rand Paul calls impeachment 'dead on arrival' after most Republicans signal that trial is unconstitutional." CNN, 27 Jan. 2020, www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/rand-paul-test-vote-impeachment-trial-constitutionality/index.html. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
Bertrand, Natasha. "Legal scholars, including at Federalist Society, say Trump can be convicted." Politico, 21 Jan. 2021, www.politico.com/news/2021/01/21/legal-scholars-federalist-society-trump-convict-461089. Accessed 28 Jan. 2021.
Booker, Brakkton. "Trump Blasts Romney Over Impeachment Vote." National Public Radio, 6 Feb. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/02/06/803445433/trump-blasts-romney-over-impeachment-vote. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
Carney, Jordain. "Democrats float 14th Amendment to bar Trump from office." The Hill, 22 Jan. 2021, thehill.com/homenews/senate/535467-democrats-float-14th-amendment-to-bar-trump-from-office. Accessed 28 Jan. 2021.
---. "Trump censure faces tough odds in Senate." The Hill, 27 Jan. 2021, https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/536210-trump-censure-faces-tough-odds-in-senate. Accessed 28 Jan. 2021.
Herb, Jeremy, and Manu Raju. "House of Representatives impeaches President Donald Trump." CNN, 19 Dec. 2019, www.cnn.com/2019/12/18/politics/house-impeachment-vote/index.html. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
Jackson, Hannah. "Key senators to watch as Trump’s 2nd impeachment trial nears." CBC Global News, 23 Jan. 2021, globalnews.ca/news/7595322/gop-senators-trump-impeachment-trial/. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
Jalonick, Mary Clare. "EXPLAINER: What’s next after House impeachment vote." Associated Press, 14 Jan. 2021, apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-impeachments-bill-clinton-mitch-mcconnell-c54737b8290f6a511bb55eab2759b21e. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Jansen, Bart. "Senate Republicans overwhelmingly back failed challenge to impeachment trial, hinting at Trump acquittal." USA Today, 26 Jan. 2021, www.usatoday.com/story/news/2021/01/26/donald-trump-impeachment-trial-begin-senate-mulls-witnesses/6660660002/. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
Naylor, Brian. "Impeachment Timeline: From Early Calls To A Full House Vote." National Public Radio, 17 Dec. 2019, www.npr.org/2019/12/17/788397365/impeachment-timeline-from-early-calls-to-a-full-house-vote. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
Pecorin, Allison, and Trish Turner. "Bipartisan Senate duo crafts censure resolution that seeks to bar Trump from office." ABC News, 27 Jan. 2021, abcnews.go.com/Politics/bipartisan-senate-duo-crafts-censure-resolution-bar-trump/story?id=75518145. Accessed 28 Jan. 2021.
Prokop, Andrew. "The second impeachment of Donald Trump, explained." Vox, 13 Jan. 2021, www.vox.com/22223972/trump-impeached-house-senate-trial-former-president. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
Prokop, Andrew, and Matthew Yglesias. "The ultimate guide to the Donald Trump’s first impeachment." Vox, 5 Nov. 2019, updated 21 Jan. 2021, www.vox.com/2019/11/5/20914280/impeachment-trump-explained. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
Riley, Russell. "THE CLINTON IMPEACHMENT AND ITS FALLOUT." Miller Center, University of Virginia, millercenter.org/the-presidency/impeachment/clinton-impeachment-and-its-fallout. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett. "Senators Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly help clear way for Trump's second impeachment trial." AZCentral, 26 Jan. 2021, www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2021/01/26/sinema-kelly-help-clear-way-trumps-second-impeachment-trial/4267292001/. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
Sheth, Sonam. "Trump's 2nd impeachment is the most bipartisan in US history." Business Insider, 13 Jan. 2021, www.businessinsider.com/trump-second-impeachment-most-bipartisan-in-us-history-2021-1. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
"The Impeachment of Andrew Johnson (1868) President of the United States." United States Senate, www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Impeachment_Johnson.htm. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
"The man whose." Constitution Daily, National Constitution Center, 16 May 2020, constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-man-whose-impeachment-vote-saved-andrew-johnson. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
Thomas, Alex. "Manchin, Capito discuss second Trump impeachment trial ahead of article delivery." West Virginia Metro News, 24 Jan. 2021, wvmetronews.com/2021/01/24/manchin-capito-discuss-second-trump-impeachment-trial-ahead-of-article-delivery/. Accessed 28 Jan. 2021.
"Trump impeached for 'inciting' US Capitol riot in historic second charge." British Broadcasting Corporation, 14 Jan. 2021, www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55656385. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Williams, Pete. "Can Trump be tried in the Senate on impeachment charges even after he leaves office? Some experts say yes." NBC News, 8 Jan. 2021, www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/can-trump-be-tried-senate-impeachment-charges-even-after-he-n1253544. Accessed 14 Jan. 2021.
Wolf, Zachary. "Why was Bill Clinton impeached?" CNN, 17 Dec. 2019, www.cnn.com/2019/12/17/politics/bill-clinton-impeachment-explained/index.html. Accessed 27 Jan. 2021.
Zelikow, Philip. "A Practical Path to Condemn and Disqualify Donald Trump." Lawfare Blog, 22 Jan. 2021, www.lawfareblog.com/practical-path-condemn-and-disqualify-donald-trump. Accessed 28 Jan. 2021.
Zhou, Li. "No Senate Republicans have backed an impeachment conviction — yet." Vox, 13 Jan. 2021, www.vox.com/22224690/senate-republicans-impeachment. Accessed 28 Jan. 2021.
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