Electoral Trends from and Implications of the Georgia Senate Runoffs
Introduction: For the first time since 2000, Georgia has two Democratic Senators. One (Rev. Raphael Warnock) is the first Black Senator from the Deep South since Reconstruction, the 11th overall, and the first from Georgia (Haney; Stracqualursi). The other (Jon Ossoff) is the youngest elected Senator since a young man named Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (D) was elected to Delaware's Senate seat in 1972 (o'Kane), the first Jewish Senator from the South since 1974 (Oney), and the first Jewish Senator from Georgia (Haney).
Today's post looks at the results of Georgia's twin Senate runoffs, highlights key electoral trends, and discusses the policy and electoral implications for the new President and beyond.
Table 1: 2020 and 2021 Georgia Election Results
Note: The Senate Class 3 first-round results refer to the combined total for all Republican candidates, who narrowly had more votes than all Democratic candidates combined.
Source: "Georgia Election," "January 5, "November 3."
Map 1: Percentage Margins by County
Note: The colors representing the winning % margin on the map are the same for both runoff elections (not referring to the actual results), hence why only one is posted.
Map 2: Raw Vote Margins by County
Graph 1: County Margins Bar Chart
Election Data Source: "January 5"
Electoral Trends:
- Nonwhite voters came out. Rural White voters didn't: As Table 1 indicates, both Democrats started off at a disadvantage, as both ended up trailing Republican candidates in their respective races (in the Special, the combined Democratic and Republican candidate vote shares). Nonwhite turnout and margins in the runoffs benefitted Democrats, especially among Black voters, whose turnout did not drop as much as White voters (Evelyn). In addition, Georgia's growing Latino population came out in large numbers for the runoffs, even though their turnout relative to the general election lagged behind White and Black voters (Gamboa). These trends are the culmination of several years of increased engagement among Georgia's diverse nonwhite population, especially with the efforts of ex-House Minority Leader and activist Stacey Abrams (Slodysko). At the same time, White turnout was not as high as the general election, allowing the larger-than-normal nonwhite vote to decide both runoffs, helping both Democrats cruise to victory (Evelyn). On average, normally-red counties saw a larger decline in turnout compared to normally-blue counties relative to November's general election turnout (Bronner et al.).
- Limits to Democratic suburban growth still exist: While Sens. Ossoff and Warnock did not match Biden's performance in suburban Atlanta (except Gwinnett), they improved over their first-round November performances. In the last pre-runoff post, I noted that both ran behind Biden's narrow victory throughout the state, especially in suburban and urban Atlanta. What this indicates is that while Democrats running in Georgia have seen a massive uptick in Atlanta's suburbs during the Trump era, such growth is not happening at the same speed at all levels. One of the main indicators of this: White college-educated voters did not vote for Ossoff and Warnock as much as they did for Biden in November. Both Senate Democratic candidates ran behind Biden in multiple well-educated White suburban counties such as Cobb and Forsyth (Bronner et al.). Even still, when comparing the runoff results with past results from the same suburban counties, there is no doubt that those counties are continuing to trend blue (or less red) in the Trump era, especially as college-educated White voters continue to bleed from the Republican Party.
- Urban liberal turnout helped both Democrats: In my pre-runoff assessment, I identified the urban Atlanta counties of DeKalb and Fulton as counties to watch closely for urban liberal turnout, especially urban nonwhite voters. As identified above, they turned out in huge numbers for the Senate runoffs, which significantly helped push both Ossoff and Warnock above 50%. Compared to Biden's 492,000 vote margin, both Senate Democratic candidates ended the runoff with a net margin of about 450,000 votes between the two counties (Graph 1) ("Georgia Election"). When linked with the discussion of the significantly rural White turnout drop above, maintaining this margin relative to turnout was likely critical in putting both Democrats above the finish line, especially considering that in past years, nonwhite turnout (urban and rural) would have declined significantly in runoff elections (Evelyn).
Conclusions: The main policy implication of the two Georgia runoffs is that with a 50-seat majority, President Biden will have greater breadth to pass many of his policy ideas, as Vice-President Harris will be able to break Senate ties. In addition, Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is now at the helm of the Senate, thus giving Democrats control over what agenda the Senate could pursue. For example, passing green energy and climate change legislation is more likely, as Democratic Leader Schumer (D-NY) supports the President's climate change policy agenda (Morehouse). Another policy area that is likely to become elevated with the Democratic majority is LGBTQ+ rights, especially as the previous House passed the Equality Act, which contained provisions to explicitly protect the rights of those in that community (Bauer). Proposals to give Americans $2,000 stimulus checks and other COVID-related safety net programs are also more likely to pass than before (Stewart). Finally, Democratic proposals to reform and expand health care access and deal with the ongoing pandemic will likely be a hot topic in the coming months (Bradner and Franco).
However, despite the Democratic Senate majority, other policy proposals, especially those championed by the party's progressive wing, are still unlikely to move forward. In line with this, President Biden has proclaimed that he plans to work with Congressional Republicans as much as possible (Bradner and Franco). Furthermore, this is complicated by the fact that multiple Democratic Senators are relatively moderate, especially Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Krysten Sinema (D-AZ), who are likely to be critical swing votes in the Senate. On the other hand, multiple Republican Senators, especially Sens. Mitt Romney (R-UT), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and Susan Collins (R-ME) could be influential in moderating legislation aligning with Biden's policy goals. In particular, the sizes of future stimulus packages and increases in tax rates are likely to be decided by these two groups of Senators (Werschkul).
The victories of Senators-elect Ossoff and Warnock on January 6th also have a number of significant electoral implications for this decade's electoral trends within Georgia, the South, and America as a whole. In particular, these two blue victories reaffirm Georgia's electoral status as a state in transition after being relatively red for the last few decades. These two victories also show the strength of Democrats "rising coalition" in the Sun Belt, which has already transformed Colorado and Virginia into blue states, made North Carolina a perennial competitive one, and continues to inch Texas closer to the battleground group. Finally, while neither Democratic Senator matched Biden's performance in educated White suburbs of Atlanta (e.g. Cobb, Forsyth, Fayette, and Cherokee counties), their performance there was a major improvement over 2014 and 2016, thus solidified the narrative that Democrats' suburban growth is not just because of Trump.
Election Results:
"Georgia Election Results and Maps 2020." CNN, last updated 19 Jan. 2021, www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/georgia. Accessed 20 Jan. 2021.
"January 5, 2021 Federal Runoff." Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, last modified 20 Jan. 2021, results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.264614/#/summary. Accessed 20 Jan. 2021.
"November 3, 2020 General Election." Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, last modified 20 Nov. 2020, results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary. Accessed 20 Jan. 2021.
Works Cited:
Bauer, Sydney. "Georgia Senate race holds far-reaching implications — especially for LGBTQ Americans." NBC News, 15 Dec. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/georgia-senate-race-holds-far-reaching-implications-especially-lgbtq-americans-n1251264. Accessed 24 Jan. 2021.
Bradner, Robert H., and Miranda A. Franco. "Healthcare Policy Outlook with a Democratic-Controlled Senate." Holland & Knight Law, 20 Jan. 2021, www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2021/01/healthcare-policy-outlook-with-a-democratic-controlled-senate. Accessed 24 Jan. 2021.
Bronner, Laura, et al. "How Democrats Won The Georgia Runoffs." FiveThirtyEight, 7 Jan. 2021, fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-won-the-georgia-runoffs/. Accessed 24 Jan. 2021.
Evelyn, Kenya. "How Black voters lifted Georgia Democrats to Senate runoff victories." The Guardian, 7 Jan. 2021, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/07/georgia-senate-runoff-black-voters-stacey-abrams. Accessed 24 Jan. 2021.
Gamboa, Suzanne. "In Georgia, Latinos shatter runoff turnout record as groups make last push for voters." NBC News, 5 Jan. 2021, www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/georgia-latinos-shatter-runoff-turnout-record-groups-make-last-push-n1252791. Accessed 24 Jan. 2021.
Haney, Adrianne. "Here's when new Georgia Senators Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock will be sworn in." 11 Alive, 19 Jan. 2021, www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/elections/jon-ossoff-raphael-warnock-sworn-in-us-senate/85-494ba577-dfea-449a-b222-4beb470c1faf. Accessed 20 Jan. 2021.
Morehouse, Catherine. "Democrats to take Senate majority after Georgia victories. Here's how it could impact the power sector." UtilityDive, 7 Jan. 2021, www.utilitydive.com/news/democrats-to-take-senate-majority-after-georgia-victories-heres-how-it-co/592949/. Accessed 24 Jan. 2021.
o'Kane, Caitlin. "Jon Ossoff becomes the youngest Democrat elected to the Senate since Joe Biden in 1973." WTOC 11, 7 Jan. 2021, www.wtoc.com/2021/01/07/jon-ossoff-becomes-youngest-democrat-elected-senate-since-joe-biden/. Accessed 20 Jan. 2021.
Oney, Steve. "What Jon Ossoff means for the South and its buried Jewish past." The Washington Post, 18 Jan. 2021, www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/01/18/what-jon-ossoff-means-south-its-buried-jewish-past/. Accessed 20 Jan. 2021.
Slodysko, Brian. "EXPLAINER: How Democrats won Georgia’s 2 Senate runoffs." Associated Press, 6 Jan. 2021, apnews.com/article/associated-press-georgia-election-result-60954fd7d3d3b6b49a8884c0c026247d. Accessed 23 Jan. 2021.
Stracqualursi, Veronica. "Warnock will make history as Georgia's first Black senator." CNN, 6 Jan. 2021, www.cnn.com/2021/01/06/politics/warnock-georgia-first-black-senator/index.html. Accessed 20 Jan. 2021.
Stewart, Emily. "“Buckle up”: Democrats signal they’re ready to go on stimulus." Vox, 6 Jan. 2021, www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2021/1/6/22216791/georgia-democrats-stimulus-check. Accessed 24 Jan. 2021.
Werschkul, Ben. "Why the coming Congress will be moderate even with the likely Democratic sweep in Georgia." Yahoo News, 5 Jan. 2021, finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-coming-congress-will-be-moderate-even-if-democrats-sweep-georgia-184022682.html. Accessed 24 Jan. 2021.
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