Four Potential Senate Upsets to Watch for

Four Potential Senate Upsets to Watch for

Introduction: This post is the second in tonight's special two-parter as the last scheduled post prior to Election Day 2020. In the first part, I briefly explored several House freshman and a longtime member facing tough re-election races, all but one of whom reside in districts that voted for Trump by at least 10%. In this part, I briefly explore potential Senate upsets that could occur among races that most professional predictors have rated as "Lean" or "Likely" for the incumbent party and/or incumbent, but where polling shows the potential for an upset to occur. Note that these races were previously covered either in the first or second Congressional bellwether posts. As such, I will not provide a rundown of each race's background, but merely provide an update and the latest predictions for each. 

Potential Senate Upsets and Current Status:

• Alaska (Incumbent: Dan Sullivan, Republican): This race is one of the most unusual Senate races of the year, in that it features a Republican incumbent against an Independent (who has pledged to join the Democratic Senate caucus if elected). At the moment, Sullivan has a modest lead in polling, while Independent Al Gross's campaign continues to push hard as election season comes to a close (Bohrer). 
• Kansas (Open Seat): As noted in the first post, despite Democrats expressing concern that Republican Representative Roger Marshall's (KS-1) primary victory over controversial ex-Secretary of State Kris Kobach would take the race out of their reach, that has not seemed to be the case (Hanna). However, while Bollier is generally performing well for a Democrat in Kansas, it will take a significant number of Trump voters to give Bollier the election (Gillepsie). Recent polling from both partisan ends shows the race tied (Democratic-leaning poll) or with Marshall slightly leading (Republican-leaning poll), further confirming this outlook (Mahoney). 
• Michigan (Incumbent: Gary Peters, Democrat): Out of the races mentioned here, this is the only race featuring a Democratic incumbent with the potential for an upset. Recently, incumbent Gary Peters (D) featured fluctuating poll numbers, with signs that the race was tightening. Yet, more recent polling indicates that Peters has increased his lead in polling over Republican John James (Gillepsie et al.). Nonetheless, as this race features a rising Republican star and is in a state Trump won in 2016, Michigan should be watched closely after polls close. 
• South Carolina (Incumbent: Lindsay Graham, Republican): Incumbent Republican Senator Lindsay Graham started out the cycle poised for an easy victory, but the road to that victory became more difficult as Democrat Jaime Harrison has performed well for a South Carolina Democrat (Bustos and Schechter). Since the first bellwether post, Constitution Party candidate Bill Bledsoe dropped out of the race and endorsed Graham, although he is still on the ballot (Arkin). The race continues to poll as close, with Graham having a slight lead over Harrison days before Election Day (Renaud). 

Works Cited: 

Arkin, James. "'Dirty tricks': Third-party candidate in heated South Carolina Senate race denounces Dem ads." Politico, 29 Oct. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/third-party-ad-south-carolina-senate-433596. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Bohrer, Becky. "Alaska Senate candidate hopes to ride Democratic wave." ABC News, 20 Oct. 2020, abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/alaska-senate-candidate-hopes-ride-democratic-wave-73708105. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Bustos, Joseph, and Maayan Schecher. "What’s at stake when SC voters decide historic US Senate race." The State, 1 Nov. 2020, www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article246631158.html. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Gillepsie, Andra, et al. "Race for the Senate 2020: Experts’ views from the states." Brookings Institution, 30 Oct. 2020, www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/10/30/race-for-the-senate-2020-experts-views-from-the-states/. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Hanna, John. "GOP in ruby red Kansas stresses over costly Senate race." Associated Press, 22 Oct. 2020, apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-senate-elections-kansas-city-kansas-296d4a1a116c6d64de8f0914dfa31eab. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Mahoney, Michael. "2 new polls paint different pictures about Kansas Senate race." KMBC 9 News, 21 Oct. 2020, www.kmbc.com/article/2-new-polls-paint-different-pictures-about-kansas-senate-race/34443037. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

Renaud, Tim. "Poll shows tight US Senate race in South Carolina days before election." WBTW 13 News, 29 Oct. 2020, www.wbtw.com/news/elections/poll-shows-tight-us-senate-race-in-south-carolina-days-before-election/. Accessed 1 Nov. 2020. 

     Nathan Parmeter
     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record