The Thirteen Gubernatorial Elections of 2020: A Brief Rundown

The Thirteen Gubernatorial Elections of 2020: A Brief Rundown

Introduction: America's electoral politics attention may be focused on Federal-level races this year, yet that does not mean that races at the state-level are less important or noteworthy. Yet, presidential election years do feature several state-level gubernatorial elections that carry significance not only to their states, but national politics. Eleven states and two territories (American Samoa and Puerto Rico) are hosting gubernatorial elections this year, all of which are described below. 

Distribution of Gubernatorial Elections: Normally, gubernatorial elections are distributed on 4-year cycles as follows. Note that New Hampshire's and Vermont's governors are up for re-election every 2 years, and that the list below does not include special elections in an "off-year." 

• Presidential Election Years (2016, 2020) (13): American Samoa*, Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Puerto Rico*, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia ("Elections")
• Year after Presidential Election (2017, 2021) (2): New Jersey, Virginia (Barton et al.)
• Midterm Years (2018, 2022) (39): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Guam*, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Northern Mariana Islands*, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virgin Islands*, Wisconsin, Wyoming ("2018 Gubernatorial")
• Year after Midterm Elections (2019, 2023) (3): Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi (Barton et al.)

* denotes territories 

2020 Gubernatorial Races:

• American Samoa (Territory): Incumbent Governor Lolo Matalasi Moliga, first elected in 2012, is term-limited in this U.S. territory where gubernatorial candidates are nonpartisan ("Governor of"). Currently, four pairs of candidates are running for the position, with each pair having a candidate to become Governor and Lieutenant Governor ("American Samoa"; "Four Teams). 
• Delaware: Incumbent Governor Tim Carney (D) is running in an uncertain race against attorney Julianne Murray (R) in Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden's home state. While Carney  should easily win re-election, controversy over his pandemic-related measures has complicated this election (Gamard). 
• Indiana: In 2016, incumbent Mike Pence (R) accepted himself as Donald Trump's vice-presidential candidate, thus voiding his primary victory. Then-Lieutenant Governor Eric Holcomb (R) was then selected by the state Republican party, who eventually won the seat handily despite polls showing the race close (Cook). This time, Holcomb faces businessman Woody Myers (D), and holds a strong lead in polling. A notable aspect of this race has been the rise of Libertarian candidate Donald Rainwater, who has garnered support from the very conservative faction of the Republican Party. In particular, Governor Holcomb has received criticism from this flank over his pandemic-related policies such as face mask rules (Wren). 
• Missouri: Four years ago, ex-Navy SEAL Eric Gretins flipped Missouri's Governorship despite Democratic attempts to hold it (Fenske). Greitens' time as Governor was suddenly interrupted in mid-2018, when he stepped down after a major scandal unraveled in which he was accused of engaging in an extramarital affair and violating campaign finance rules (Romo). Taking his place was Lieutenant Governor Mike Parson (R), who is now running for a full term of his own. Parson faces State Auditor Nicole Galloway (D), currently the only remaining statewide Democrat ("Decision 2020"). While original assessments of this race forecasted that it would not be competitive, polls have recently narrowed, although Parson still has a significant edge (Huguelet; Newell). 
• Montana: Out of this year's gubernatorial elections, this one is arguably the most competitive and the most likely to flip parties. Since 2000, Democrats have consistently held Big Sky Country's governorship, and remained competitive in other lower-level races, even as Montana has become increasingly Republican at the presidential-level (McLaughlin). With popular incumbent governor Steve Bullock (D) term-limited and challenging Senator Steve Daines (R) for the Class 2 Senate Seat ("Factbox"; Nilsen), polls are showing Helena likely to flip Republican (McLaughlin). The Democratic candidate is Bullock's Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney (the grandson of a former governor) (McLaughlin), who beat businesswoman Whitney Williams in the primary. The Republican candidate is current at-large Representative Greg Gianforte (R), who made headlines in his 2017 special election when he assaulted a news reporter the night before the election. Before that, Gianforte previously ran for governor in 2016, losing to Bullock (Drake). Recent polls have shown the race in Gianforte's favor (McLaughlin). 
• New Hampshire: Republican John Sununu (part of a famous NH political family) flipped New Hampshire's governorship in 2016, becoming the youngest governor in the country (Wheeler). Two years later, he was re-elected, despite Democrats taking control of both state legislatures (Dubail). This year, the popular Sununu faces New Hampshire Senate leader John Feltes ("Feltes"). Despite polls showing the race to be competitive, Sununu is said to be in a strong position for re-election (Biello and Rogers).
• North Carolina: In 2016, North Carolina's gubernatorial election remained uncalled for several weeks, with state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) narrowly leading controversial incumbent Pat McCrory (R). Eventually, after all ballots were counted and a series of Republican-ordered recounts in Durham produced little net change in the results, McCrory conceded to Cooper (Graham). Since then, Cooper has built up a fairly positive reputation in the perennial swing state, although like in other states, some of pandemic-related closures have been controversial among Republicans (Seddiq). Cooper's 2020 opponent is Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest (R), whose mother was a former Congresswoman (Mitchell and Navarro; Seddiq). Despite the latter's profile and fundraising, Cooper has a slight but solid lead in the polls, and pundits are considering him likely to win another term ("Factbox"; Mitchell and Navarro). 
• North Dakota: Incumbent Governor Doug Burgum (R), first elected in 2016, is running for a second term with a high approval rating. This time, he faces veterinarian Shelley Lenz (D), and is expected to win another term (Axelrod). 
• Puerto Rico (Territory): After ascending to the Governor's office last year, incumbent Wanda Vázquez of the New Progressive Party tried to run for a term of her own, but lost the primary to Pedro Pierluisi (a registered Democrat) (Florido; Vega). Vázquez (who is a registered Republican) recently endorsed President Trump's re-election campaign, hoping to connect with diaspora communities in the critical state of Florida (Rodriguez). Pierluisi faces Popular Democratic Party candidate Carlos ("Charlie") Delgado and multiple smaller parties in the general election. Another major candidate of note is Alexandra Lugaro of the Citizen's Victory Movement, whose ideology emphasizes anti-colonialism (Florido; Vega). The ongoing debate over whether statehood should be granted to Puerto Rico is one of the defining issues in this election, with Vazquez supporting it, Delgado opposing it, and Lugaro recommending the creation of a constitutional assembly to settle the issue (Florido). 
• Utah: Other than American Samoa and Montana, this is the only other open-seat gubernatorial election this year. Despite being eligible to run again, incumbent Gary Herbert (R) decided to retire. In opening up the seat, Herbert's Lieutenant Governor Spencer Cox (R) narrowly won the Republican primary against ex-Governor and -Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr. (R), who was seeking a political comeback (Winslow). Cox is facing-off with Democrat Christopher Peterson, a University of Utah professor (Dudley), and is expected to win the longtime Republican state (Roche). Recently, both major candidates released an ad calling for the public to observe civility and respect while acknowledging their political differences and disagreements (Lewis). 
• Vermont: At first glance, it may seem odd that the state of Democratic Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders (I) has a Republican governor, especially without considering that said governor ranks amongst the most popular in the country, with a high approval rating ("The 10"). Liberal Republican Phil Scott (R) won his first term in 2016, then secured a second in 2018, despite that year being a Democratic wave, and Senator Sanders simultaneously winning another term of his own (McCullum). Scott is running for a third term, facing Democratic Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman, who is also running for the Progressive Party (Ring). Recent polling shows the popular Scott being favored for re-election (Landen). 
• Washington: After briefly jumping into the Democratic Presidential primary field, incumbent Governor Jay Inslee (D) exited the crowded primary and decided to run for another gubernatorial term (Dareh and Vitali). In July, Inslee secured one of the "top-two" primary spots, the other being Loren Culp (R), a police officer ("Inslee"). Inslee is expected to win re-election in this solid-blue state (Goldberg). 
• West Virginia: Despite Donald Trump's massive victory and rightward swing in this once-Democratic state, Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Jim Justice won the governor's office. Less than a year later, Justice switched parties, and is now running for another term as a Republican. Kanawaha County (which contains the state capitol, Charleston) Supervisor Ben Salango narrowly won his Democratic primary against activist Stephen Smith to face Justice in the general. Polls show the incumbent with a solid lead (Izaguirre). Previously, current Senator and former Governor Joe Manchin (D) briefly considering running for his former position, but decided against it (Perano). 

Works Cited:

"2018 Gubernatorial Election Results." National Governors Association, www.nga.org/governors/election-results/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"American Samoa gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2020." Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/American_Samoa_gubernatorial_and_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2020. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Axelrod, Tal. "North Dakota Gov. Burgum set to face Democrat Shelley Lenz in gubernatorial race." The Hill, 9 Jun. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/501563-north-dakota-gubernatorial-election-set. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Barton, Ryland, et al. "Why These 5 States Hold Odd-Year Elections, Bucking The Trend." National Public Radio, 4 Nov. 2019, www.npr.org/2019/11/04/767959274/why-these-5-states-hold-odd-year-elections-bucking-the-trend. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Biello, Peter, and Josh Rogers. "N.H. Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates Head Into Final Stretch Of Primary Race." New Hampshire Public Radio, 7 Sept. 2020, www.nhpr.org/post/nh-democratic-gubernatorial-candidates-head-final-stretch-primary-race#stream/0. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Cook, Tony. "Eric Holcomb defeats John Gregg for Indiana governor." IndyStar, 8 Nov. 2016, www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/08/election-results-2016-indiana-governor-race-winner/93241306/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Decision 2020: Missouri’s gubernatorial candidates." WGEM, 10 Aug. 2020, wgem.com/2020/08/10/decision-2020-missouri-gubernatorial-election-candidates/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Drake, Phil. "Gianforte, Cooney win gubernatorial primary races." Great Falls Tribune, 2 Jun. 2020, www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2020/06/02/montana-governor-primary-2020-results-live-updates-election-updates/5308507002/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Dubail, Jean. "NH Democratic Wave Halted At Governor's Office; Sununu Re-Elected." Patch-Across New Hampshire, 5 Nov. 2018, patch.com/new-hampshire/across-nh/election-2018-new-hampshire-midterm-results. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Dudley, Graham. "2020 election: Utah governor's race - candidates, issues, key dates and debates." KSL, www.ksl.com/article/46763483/2020-election-utah-governors-race--candidates-issues-key-dates-and-debates. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Elections." National Governors Association, www.nga.org/governors/elections/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Factbox: Five U.S. gubernatorial races to watch." Reuters, 11 Sept. 2020, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-governor-factbox/factbox-five-u-s-gubernatorial-races-to-watch-idUSKBN2622BO. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Feltes to Challenge Sununu in New Hampshire Governor Race." NECN, 9 Sept. 2020, www.necn.com/news/politics/decision-2020/democratic-primary-for-nh-governor-too-early-to-call/2320852/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Fenske, Sarah. "Chris Koster Concedes Missouri Governor's Race to Eric Greitens." Riverfront Times, 8 Nov. 2016, www.riverfronttimes.com/newsblog/2016/11/08/chris-koster-concedes-missouri-governors-race-to-eric-greitens. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Florido, Adrian. "Puerto Rico's Governor Loses Primary Bid For Full Term." National Public Radio, 16 Aug. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/08/16/903111430/puerto-ricos-governor-loses-primary-bid-for-full-term. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Four teams to vie for American Samoa's governorship." Radio New Zealand, 3 Sept. 2020, www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/425146/four-teams-to-vie-for-american-samoa-s-governorship. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Gamard, Sarah. "Gov. John Carney easily defeats Democratic challenger, faces Republican who is suing him." Delaware Online, 16 Sept. 2020, www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/16/2020-elections-delaware-governor-faces-republican-who-suing-him/5790516002/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Goldberg, Michael. "The challenges facing Republican gubernatorial candidates." Washington State Wire, 4 Aug. 2020, washingtonstatewire.com/the-challenges-facing-republican-gubernatorial-candidates/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Governor of American Samoa." Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Governor_of_American_Samoa. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Graham, David. "The North Carolina Governor's Race Is Finally Over." The Atlantic, 5 Dec. 2016, www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/12/north-carolina-governor-pat-mccrory-concedes-to-roy-cooper/509603/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Gregorian, Dareh, and Ali Vitali. "Jay Inslee drops out of the 2020 presidential race." NBC News, 21 Aug. 2019, www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/jay-inslee-drops-out-2020-presidential-race-n1045066. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Huguelet, Austin. "SLU pollsters: Parson leading Galloway in Missouri governor race." Springfield News-Leader, 13 Oct. 2020, www.news-leader.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/13/missouri-governor-election-poll-says-mike-parson-leads-nicole-galloway/5978143002/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"Inslee, Culp advance to general election in Washington governor's race." King 5, 30 Jul. 2020, www.king5.com/article/news/politics/elections/washington-state-candidates-governor-primary-election-2020/281-5134fd64-0e61-4f41-86c3-7a23d8c5ff69. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Izaguirre, Anthony. "Justice, Salango to face off in fall W.Va. governor's election." WHSV-3, 10 Jun. 2020, www.whsv.com/content/news/Justice-Salango-to-face-off-in-fall-WVa-governors-election-571158241.html. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Landen, Xander. "Poll: Scott leads Zuckerman 2-1 in governor’s race; Gray and Milne in tight LG contest." VTDigger, 22 Sept. 2020, vtdigger.org/2020/09/22/poll-scott-leads-zuckerman-2-1-in-governors-race-gray-and-milne-in-tight-lg-contest/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Lewis, Sophie. "Republican and Democrat running against each other for Utah governor unite for joint ad." CBS News, 20 Oct. 2020, www.cbsnews.com/news/republican-democrat-opponents-utah-governor-joint-advertisement/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

McCullum, April. "Who won the Vermont governor election and what that means." Burlington Free Press, 7 Nov. 2018, www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/vermont-midterm-election-results-what-governors-race-means-phil-scott-christine-hallquist/1806899002/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

McLaughlin, Kathleen. "Montana governor’s race epitomizes a state changing along with its politics." The Washington Post, 19 Oct. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/montana-governors-race-epitomizes-a-state-changing-along-with-its-politics/2020/10/19/665207fa-0f49-11eb-8a35-237ef1eb2ef7_story.html. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Mitchell, Lacrai, and Aaron Navarro. "North Carolina's governor race enters the homestretch after summer of coronavirus." CBS News, 8 Sept. 2020, www.cbsnews.com/news/north-carolina-governor-election-2020-mail-ballot-roy-cooper-dan-forest-coronavirus/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Newell, Jesse. "Missouri’s governor race has tightened, non-partisan politics newsletter reports." The Kansas City Star, 15 Sept. 2020, www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article245750020.html. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Nilsen, Ella. "Montana’s Senate race was supposed to be easy for Republicans. It’s a dead heat." Vox, 21 Oct. 2020, www.vox.com/21508336/montanas-senate-race-steve-bullock-daines. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Perano, Ursula. "Sen. Joe Manchin will not run for West Virginia governor in 2020." Axios, 3 Sept. 2019, www.axios.com/joe-manchin-west-virginia-governor-senate-5cc14832-29df-47ee-ba49-0cde92ebc579.html. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Ring, Wilson. "Zuckerman to face incumbent Scott in Vermont governor’s race." Associated Press, 11 Aug. 2020, apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-vermont-phil-scott-11d66432fd025d76cd5b6d2e45ea114d. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Roche, Lisa Riley. "Poll shows ‘few surprises’ in Utah governor’s race." Deseret News, 19 Oct. 2020, www.deseret.com/utah/2020/10/19/21523358/poll-governors-race-spencer-cox-leading-chris-peterson. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Rodriguez, Sabrina. "Puerto Rico governor endorses Trump." Politico, 6 Oct. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/10/06/puerto-rico-governor-endorses-trump-426926. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Romo, Vanessa. "Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens Resigns." National Public Radio, 29 May 2020, www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/29/615295346/missouri-gov-eric-greitens-resigns. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Seddiq, Oma. "What you need to know about North Carolina's governor race between Roy Cooper and Dan Forest." Business Insider, 9 Oct. 2020, www.businessinsider.com/roy-cooper-vs-dan-forest-north-carolina-governor-election-2020. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

"The 10 Most Popular and Unpopular Governors." Morning Consult, morningconsult.com/governor-rankings/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Vega, Mivette. "Meet Puerto Rico’s Candidates for Governor." The Americano News, 17 Sept. 2020, theamericanonews.com/2020/09/17/puerto-rico-candidates-for-governor/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Wheeler, Lydia. "Sununu wins reelection in New Hampshire governor race." The Hill, 6 Nov. 2018, thehill.com/campaign-issues/414460-sununu-wins-reelection-in-new-hampshire-governor-race. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Winslow, Ben. "Spencer Cox wins Republican primary in Utah governor's race." FOX 13 Salt Lake City, 6 Jul. 2020, www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/ap-spencer-cox-wins-republican-primary-in-utah-governors-race. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

Wren, Adam. "How Anti-Mask Politics Are Scrambling Indiana’s Governor’s Race." Politico, 17 Oct. 2020, www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/17/anti-mask-politics-scrambling-indianas-governors-race-429997. Accessed 22 Oct. 2020. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record