Arnold and Steve: A Quantitative Analysis of the Last Republicans to Win California
Introduction: The Golden State may be solidly-blue now, but it is easy to forget that as recently as 2006, that wasn't always the case. That year, two Republicans won statewide offices. One was the ex-movie actor and bodybuilder Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), who had won a stunning victory three years earlier when then-Governor Gray Davis (D) was recalled by California voters. The other was Steve Poizner (R), a businessman who won the office of California's Insurance Commissioner, whose job is to direct the California Department of Insurance, which provides oversight over the state's private insurance markets ("About the department"). In hindsight, their victories were not extremely surprising, as California had only voted for Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry (D) by just under 10% two years earlier, and as will be revealed below, both Republicans had broad statewide support (especially Schwarzenegger) as part of their victories. On the other hand, their twin victories were an aberration for Republicans, as 2006 was a punishing midterm that saw Democrats take control of the House, Senate, and a several state governorships. Yet, despite their solid victories, Schwarzenegger and Poizner ended up being the last two Republicans to win any statewide elections in California (Blood).
As this blog post was being written and published, current Governor Gavin Newsom (D) was facing intense Republican efforts to unseat him, including the ongoing recall movement that has been covered before on this blog. Even if the recall movement does not succeed in putting a recall election against Newsom on the ballot this year, Newsom will be up for re-election in 2022, and prominent Republicans are already jumping in or considering it (Bollag; Mehta). State and National Republicans claim to be optimistic that they can unseat Newsom and win the Golden State, despite the lack of a statewide victory since 2006 and the state's increasing diversity and massive blue shift since (Dann et al.). With that in mind, looking at the 2006 statewide election victories of Arnold and Steve can be used to understand what a Republican statewide victory could look like, especially if the right candidate(s) are nominated.
Methodology: Like other election-related quantitative analysis posts, I obtained raw voting data from the certified 2004 and 2006 Statements of Votes, which are available on the California Secretary of State's website. Calculations for candidate over- and under-performance relative to each other were self-calculated, while all of the maps and treemaps were made in Tableau.
Visual 1: 2006 Gubernatorial and Insurance Commissioner Election Maps:
Data Sources: "Statement of Vote: November 7, 2006 General Election," 1-3, 22-24.
Visual 2: 2006 Gubernatorial and Insurance Commissioner Treemaps:
Notes: On my election-related treemaps, box sizes refer to raw vote margins, while colors refer to % margins.
Data Sources: "Statement of Vote: November 7, 2006 General Election," 1-3, 22-24.
Elections Summary:
- Gubernatorial: As stated in the introduction. Gov. Schwarzenegger (R) ascended to the governership through the famous 2003 recall election, and immediately got to work solidifying his reputation as a centrist Republican with broad appeal (Wonnacott). In 2006, the "Governator" ran for a full term, facing Democratic State Treasurer Phil Angelides. On Election Day, Arnold won a full term, netting 55% of the vote, compared to Angelides' 39% ("California's 2006," 1). Per exit polling, Schwarzenegger received support from a majority of California men and women, 60% from White- and Asian-American voters, over 50% from voters aged 30 and older, and almost 60% of Independents and moderates. Furthermore, he won 22% of Democrats, 45% from urban voters, 27% from African-Americans, 39% from Latino voters, 44% from voters under 29 years old, and 33% of those who strongly disapproved of then-President Bush (R) ("Exit Polls"). These numbers show that despite not achieving majorities under any normally-Democratic groups other than Asian-Americans, Schwarzenegger won a full term with a broad coalition.
- Insurance Commissioner: In 2006, incumbent Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi (D) (who is now the U.S. Representative for CA-3) did not run for another term, instead going for the Lieutenant Governor position (which he won) ("Garamendi"). Republican businessman Steve Poizner (R) competed with Democratic Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante (who had run in the 2003 gubernatorial recall election). Poizner won around 50% of the vote, while Bustamante took around 39% ("California's 2006," 1).
Arnold vs. Poizner:
Visual 3: 2006 Gubernatorial vs. Insurance Commissioner
Notes: The numbers refer to the winning (or losing) % margin difference between Schwarzenegger and Poizner. Counties with colors corresponding to values greater than one indicate that Schwarzenegger overperformed relative to Poizner. Counties with colors corresponding to values less than one indicate that Poizner overperformed relative to Schwarzenegger.
Data Sources: "Statement of Vote: November 7, 2006 General Election," 1-3, 22-24.
Visual 3 above shows the difference between Schwarzenegger's and Poizner's percent margins at the county-level. Generally, Schwarzenegger overperformed Poizner across the state, especially in the north, east, and interior parts of the state. However, it stands out that Poizner overperformed Schwarzenegger in the immediate San Francisco Bay Area. In addition, Schwarzenegger's level of overperformance relative to Poizner in the Northern Coast counties, the North Bay counties (except for Sonoma), Sacramento, and urban parts of Southern California were not as large as it was in other parts of the state. Keep these patterns in mind, as they correlate to counties where John Kerry (D) performed well two years earlier, which is described in detail below.
Arnold and Steve vs. Bush:
Visual 4: 2004 Presidential Election Results
Data Source: "Statement of Vote: November 2, 2004 General Election," 1-6.
Two years before Arnold and Poizner won their statewide positions, Democrat John Kerry (D) won California against incumbent George W. Bush (R), continuing a 4-time Democratic voting streak going back to 1992 (as of 2020, it has expanded to 8!). Visual 4 above shows the county results and bubble map of the 2004 presidential election results. Kerry won the state by just under 10%, the last time this has happened in California. As part of his victory, Kerry performed well in the Bay Area, Los Angeles, and traditionally-Democratic coastal counties such as Humboldt, Monterey, and Santa Cruz. Meanwhile, Bush performed well throughout the interior and non-urban parts of Southern California, which was key in helping keep Kerry's win under 10%.
Visual 5: 2004 Presidential vs. 2006 Republican Performance
Notes: Counties with colors corresponding to values less than one indicate locations where Schwarzenegger or Poizner underperformed Bush, and vice-versa for values greater than one.
Data Sources: "Statement of Vote: November 2, 2004 General Election," 1-6; "Statement of Vote: November 7, 2006 General Election," 1-3, 22-24.
While the top-of-line margin alone shows that both Schwarzenegger and Poizner performed far better than Bush in 2006, there were significant county-level differences in how much counties shifted between 2004 and 2006, as shown in Visual 5. Yet, both significantly overperformed Bush in counties that voted for Kerry two years ago, which could be a reflection of both Republicans having significant appeal to voting groups in those places. On the Insurance Commissioner map, something that stands out is that Poizner underperformed Bush in Del Norte, Imperial, Kings, and multiple interior Northern California counties. Overall, these counties are largely rural and/or thinnly-populated, White (except Imperial), and blue-collar. Furthermore, Poizner did not overperform as much as Schwarzenegger in other Central Valley counties compared to Bush. On the other hand, Schwarzenegger overperformed Bush in every county save Plumas, revealing the extent of his electoral strength among California voters, especially in normally-blue areas of the state. While county-level results alone do not perfectly reveal electoral trends, relative to Schwarzenegger and Bush, Poizner seemed to have greater appeal to urban and educated voters and less appeal to rural interior voters, including Latino voters, evident by Imperial County's result.
2018 Poizner Comeback Attempt: Poizner served as California's Insurance Commissioner for four years, and decided to leave the office after the 2010 elections. In 2018, he decided to vie for a come-back to his former position, this time running as an Independent (Christopher). After initially making it through the "Jungle Primary" to the general election, he lost to Democrat Ricardo Lara by around 5% ("California Insurance").
Conclusion and Implications: Going back to the introduction paragraph, understanding the 2006 election victories of Schwarzenegger and Poizner is relevant at this moment due to the intense Republican effort to unseat Gov. Newsom either through a recall or regular election. If they were to succeed at that, it would be the first statewide Republican victory since 2006, and only the third during this century (Blood). It would also be an extremely sharp swing from 2020, as Joe Biden (D) won 63% of California's on his way to the White House. By comparison, in the last presidential election before the 2003 gubernatorial recall, Democrat Al Gore won 53%, while Kerry won 54% in 2004 (Demsas).
While this blog will not speculate too much on what a potential Republican winning map could look like, several electoral trends from 2006 will have to be replicated for a red statewide victory. In particular, any Republican dreaming to win the state will have to have significant appeal in the very-blue Bay Area, where both Poizner and Schwarzenegger won multiple normally-blue suburban counties. This would likely mean that a successful Republican would have to win a significant number of Democratic voters, as Newsom won 63% of the vote in 2018 (Dann et al.). Remember that in 2006, Schwarzenegger won 22% of Democrats ("Exit Polls"). Whether a Republican candidate would be able to simultaneously couple that strategy while appealing to traditional GOP voters in the interior and Southern California is an open question, especially considering how much the state has politically-swung post-2008. However, it is important to remember that if a majority of voters (regardless of party) choose to recall Newsom if a recall is held, the replacement candidate with a plurality wins the position, which is something a Republican could exploit. Last time, over 130 replacement candidates ran to replace Gov. Davis (D), something experts have speculated could happen again if a recall makes it to the ballot (Kreutz). In 2003, Schwarzenegger won around 48% of the vote, which could have been higher if state legislator (and now U.S. Representative for CA-4) Tom McClintock (R) hadn't run, as he gained 13% (Lawrence).
Data Source:
"Statement of Vote: November 2, 2004 General Election." California Secretary of State Kevin Shelley, 10 Dec. 2004, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2004-general/sov_2004_entire.pdf, 1-6. Accessed 6 Mar. 2021.
"Statement of Vote: November 7, 2006 General Election." California Secretary of State Bruce McPherson, 16 Dec. 2006, elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2006-general/complete_sov.pdf, 1-3, 22-24. Accessed 4 Mar. 2021.
Works Cited:
"About the department." California Department of Insurance, www.insurance.ca.gov/0500-about-us/02-department/. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
Blood, Michael. "Republican infighting rattles bid to oust Democrat Newsom." WH10TV, 19 Mar. 2021, www.whio.com/news/politics/republican/HSWGYSAEVGDECGJ5OHSHJ2Z44E/. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
Bollag, Sophia. "California Republican says he’s running to replace Gavin Newsom as governor." Sacramento Bee, 1 Feb. 2021, www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article248934414.html. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
"California Insurance Commissioner election, 2018." Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/California_Insurance_Commissioner_election,_2018. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
"California's November 2006 Election." Just the Facts, The Public Policy Institute of California, Dec. 2006, www.ppic.org/content/pubs/jtf/JTF_Nov2006ElectionJTF.pdf. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
Christopher, Ben. "Lara wins for state insurance commissioner—another loss for California right-of-center candidates." CalMatters, 16 Nov. 2018, calmatters.org/politics/election-2018/2018/11/lara-wins-insurance-commissioner/. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
Dann, Carrie, et al. "California could be headed for very different recall than the last one." NBC News, 17 Feb. 2021, www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
Demsas, Jerusalem. "The effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom, explained." Vox, 22 Feb. 2021, www.vox.com/2021/2/22/22291140/gavin-newsom-california-governor-recall-campaign-covid-19-vaccination-school-closure. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
"Exit Polls." CNN, 2006, www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/CA/G/00/epolls.0.html. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
"Explore Census Data." United States Census Bureau, data.census.gov/cedsci/. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
"Garamendi, Poizner take top spots following California elections." Insurance Journal, 19 Nov. 2006, www.insurancejournal.com/magazines/mag-features/2006/11/19/152979.htm. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
Kreutz, Liz. " 'It will be a 3-ring circus' if recall election happens this year, CA political strategist predicts." ABC7 News, 18 Feb. 2021, abc7news.com/california-governor-gavin-newsom-recall-election/10349090/. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
Lawrence, David G. "California's Crazy Recall." Westmont Magazine, 2003, www.westmont.edu/californias-crazy-recall. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
Mehta, Seema. "Republicans are emerging to run for governor should Newsom recall qualify." Los Angeles Times, 1 Feb. 2021, www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-02-01/governor-newsom-recall-candidates-republicans. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
Wonnacott, Mark W. " The effects of the 2003 recall election on the 2006 California gubernatorial election." McKendree University, www.mckendree.edu/academics/scholars/issue8/wonnacott.htm. Accessed 7 Mar. 2021.
Nathan Parmeter
Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record
No comments:
Post a Comment