A History of Pre-Midterm Bellwether Special House Elections

Author's Notes: In addition to this post coming out today, I modified the original 2021 elections post, since all of this year's special elections have confirmed dates, and included information about the TX-6 election, which was announced after that post was published. 

A History of Pre-Midterm Bellwether Special House Elections

Introduction: With the second full month of Biden's presidency now over, Congressional special election season has already started, as Louisiana yesterday held two special House elections to fill LA-2 (where Rep. Cedric Richmond resigned to join the Biden administration) and LA-5 (where Rep.-elect Luke Letlow died of COVID-19 before being sworn-in) (Wise). Since my initial 2021 special Congressional election post came out, it was announced that another one will occur on May 1, 2021 in TX-6, where incumbent Rep. Ron Wright (R) died of COVID-19 in early February (Zanona). Out of the scheduled special elections, LA-2 and OH-11 are very blue urban seats that were/are expected to remain Democratic, while LA-5 is very red and was almost certain to remain Republican. That leaves NM-1 and TX-6, the former being a blue (but not overwhelmingly) seat (Akin), and the second being a modestly-red seat that is trending towards the purple in recent years (Zanona). 

Starting with 2006, each incumbent President's midterm has been devastating for their party on Capitol Hill, often with wide swings and many seats flipping to the opposition party (Sabato, 11-14). Usually, the time period between midterm and presidential elections often contain one or more well-watched special Congressional elections that are often seen as a harbinger of the next midterm or presidential election (Kondik, "House 2016," 76). Political analysts and experts have cautioned that individual special elections going into midterm cycles can often mean nothing (Enten, "What The," Kondik, "House 2016," Kondik and Sabato, "The limited"). On the other hand, special elections have the potential to reveal general voter mood towards the incumbent party in Congress and/or the presidency, especially in hindsight, as pointed out by FiveThirtyEight's Harry Enten (Enten, "What the"). Today's post will go over a brief history of special Congressional elections that in hindsight, defined and correlated with the midterm they preceded, even if they didn't reveal any clues at the time. 

Past Midterm Cycles and Penultimate Special Elections:

• 2006 (CA-50 and OH-2): Coming into his 2004 re-election, President George W. Bush (R) enjoyed a rare favorable midterm in 2002 with high approval ratings in the post-9/11 environment. However, not within a year of starting his second term, the tables began to turn on the younger Bush, as the Iraq War, Hurricane Katrina, and multiple Republican House scandals caused his popularity to decline (Sabato, 11-12). For context, CA-50 at the time encompassed San Diego's once-red northern suburbs, while OH-2 contained some of Cincinnati's suburbs and a large stretch of red rural territory. OH-2 held its special election in August 2005 after then-Rep. Rob Portman (R) (who is now Ohio's Class 3 Senator) resigned to become the U.S. Trade Representative. That special election saw a narrow 3% Republican victory in a district Bush won by almost 30% (Enten, "What The"), which was interpreted as early evidence that Bush and the Congressional Republicans' increasing unpopularity was foreboding for the 2006 elections (Gonzales). Meanwhile, CA-50 held its special election the following June after the incumbent resigned due to multiple scandals resulting in jail time (Perry). In a double-digit Bush-won district, Republican candidate Brian Bilbray won by 4%, which only reinforced the narrative that 2006 had the potential to be a good year for House Democrats (o'Keefe; "What California's"). That November, Democrats took back control of the House, winning a net 30 seats in a significant repudiation of the Bush administration and Congressional Republicans (Enten, "What The") .
• 2010 (PA-12): In Obama's first year as president, he witnessed his image turn rapidly from that of a fresh young ambitious president to one who was increasingly controversial, especially in regards to the controversial health care reform bill (Hechtkopf). During that time in late 2009, longtime SW Pennsylvania Representative John Murtha (D) passed away, thus causing a March 2010 special election in a region that unusually shifted more Republican in 2008 compared to 2004 (Kraushaar). Democratic candidate Mark Kritz (D) ended up winning the special election, but his ideology relative to Obama's needs to be taken into account. In particular, Kritz was socially-conservative, opposed to the Affordable Care Act, and was running in an area where voters were unsupportive of House Democratic leadership (especially Speaker Nancy Pelosi), yet he won by only 6% (Condon; Riley; Schaller). This special election was speculated at the time to foreshadow Democratic problems in keeping historical conservative blue-collar voters in their column, which happened on Election Day, as almost 65 Democratic seats (many majority-White, rural, and blue-collar, like PA-12) flipped red, even those with relatively moderate or conservative candidates (Olsen). 
• 2014 (FL-13): Unlike his predecessor, Obama had the misfortune of facing two punishing midterms, especially as his popularity remained relatively low in 2013-2014 (Sabato, 13). One of the districts Democrats hoped to flip in the 2014 elections was Tampa Bay's FL-13, represented by longtime Rep. Bill Young (R), who had decided to retire in 2014. Young died in 2013, leading to a special election in a district that narrowly voted for President Obama in 2012. In the contest between former gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink (D) and ex-Congressional staffer Bill Young (R), Young won a narrow victory in a narrow Obama 2012 district (Kondik, "The State of," 77-78). The failure of Sink to win FL-13 was seen as a likely indicator for the 2014 midterms, showing that even Obama-won districts would take a major stretch to flip, especially those with swing voters (Insenstadt). In the midterm election later that year, House Democrats lost a net 13 House seats, further bolstering the Republican majority. Among these included both longtime incumbents in dark-red seats and multiple Obama-won districts. Furthermore, they were only able to pick up three seats from the Republicans, all of which had specific conditions (Kondik, "The State of," 76-81). 
• 2018 (Multiple Special Elections): With heightened interest in electoral politics because of Donald Trump's upset victory in 2016, greater attention was given to the 2017-2018 special House elections, where even the earliest ones revealed troubling signs for Trump and House Republicans. The first was Southern Kansas-based KS-4's in April, where a Democrat came within 7% of winning the district, as the Republican candidate heavily underperforming normal Republican performances there (Enten, "Is Trump"). Then came the high-profile GA-6 election in Atlanta's suburbs, where despite Democratic agony in failing to flip the seat despite their intense efforts, the results showed that classically-Republican suburban areas such as those in GA-6 were no longer safe for Republicans (Mahtesian; Mutnick). That same night, a close Republican victory also occurred in the largely-rural and Trump 20%-won SC-5 that saw low voter turnout ("Norman claims"). Republican concerns only grew the following year, as PA-18 (the post-2010 version of PA-14)'s special election saw a narrow Democratic victory propelled by Pittsburgh's suburbs (Rakich), and Republicans saw two more narrow victories in AZ-8 and OH-12 that were the result of strong Democratic performances in Phoenix's and Columbus's suburbs, respectively (Brownstein; Godfrey). The 2018 House elections saw Democrats pick up 40 net seats, many of which contained heavily suburban-dominated areas (Skelley). 

Conclusion and Implications: Before the 2016 election, my interest in politics was mainly limited to legislative news and the quad-annual presidential election, as I did not have as much interest in Congressional elections at the time. However, by the Summer of 2017, I began to show interest in following special Congressional and off-cycle elections due to the extensive discussion that such elections were already showing a significant liberal wave of engagement not even five months into Trump's presidency. Fast forward four more years, and pre-midterm special election season has started up once again, this time with a new and politically-different president. While the current slate of special Congressional elections are unlikely to reveal much about the 2022 midterms this far out, they will be extensively-watched and -followed for what trends and results will appear. Whether the 2021-22 special election season has one election that correlates heavily with the upcoming midterm's trends and results also remains to be seen. However, if Biden does end up facing a negative midterm and environment leading up to it, the chance is high that at least one will reveal itself this or next year, just like the past ones profiled in today's blog post. 

Works Cited: 

Akin, Stephanie. "Vote set for June 1 to fill Haaland seat in New Mexico’s 1st District." Roll Call, 17 Mar. 2021, www.rollcall.com/2021/03/17/vote-set-for-june-1-to-fill-haaland-seat-in-new-mexicos-1st-district/. Accessed 20 Mar. 2021. 

Brownstein, Ronald. "The Ohio Results Point to Democratic Strength in 2018—And a Showdown in 2020." The Atlantic, 8 Aug. 2018, www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/08/trump-oconnor-balderson-ohio-special-election/567050/. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021. 

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Coleman, J. Miles. "The House: As 2020’s Final Contests Settle, Vacancies Arise." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 11 Feb. 2021, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/as-2020s-final-contests-settle-vacancies-arise/. Accessed 22 Feb. 2021. 

Condon, Stephanie. "Mark Critz Defeats Tim Burns in Pennsylvania Special Election for Murtha's Seat." CBS News, 18 May 2010, www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20005343-503544.html. Internet Archive Wayback Machine, 22 May 2010, web.archive.org/web/20100522100507/http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20005343-503544.html. Accessed 20 Mar. 2021. 

Enten, Harry. "Is Trump Or Brownback To Blame For The Surprisingly Close Race In Kansas 4?" FiveThirtyEight, 12 Apr. 2017, fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-trump-or-brownback-to-blame-for-the-surprisingly-close-race-in-kansas-4/. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021. 

---. "What The Special Election In Georgia Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About The Midterms." FiveThirtyEight, 4 Apr. 2017, fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-special-election-in-georgia-can-and-cant-tell-us-about-the-midterms/. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021. 

Godfrey, Elaine. "A Republican Victory in Arizona Sets Off Alarms in the GOP." The Atlantic, 25 Apr. 2018, www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/04/democrats-winning-streak-ends-in-arizona/558860/. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021. 

Gonzales, Nathaniel. "Looking for Clues From a 2005 Special Election in Ohio." Roll Call, 20 Mar. 2017, www.rollcall.com/2017/03/20/looking-for-clues-from-a-2005-special-election-in-ohio/. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021. 

Hechtkopf, Kevin. "Obama's Approval Rating Dips to New Low." CBS News, 11 Jan. 2010, www.cbsnews.com/news/obamas-approval-rating-dips-to-new-low/. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021. 

Isenstadt, Alex. "Florida loss big blow to Dems' hopes." Politico, 11 Mar. 2014, www.politico.com/story/2014/03/david-jolly-alex-sink-florida-special-election-2014-democrats-104560. Accessed 20 Mar. 2021. 

Kondik, Kyle. "2016 House: The Republicans Endure." Trumped, edited by Kyle Kondik, Larry J. Sabato, and Geoffrey Skelley, Rowman and Littlefield, 2017, pp. 70-82. 

---. "The State of the House." The Surge, edited by Kyle Kondik, Larry J. Sabato, and Geoffrey Skelley, Rowman and Littlefield, 2015, pp. 73-85. 

Kondik, Kyle, and Larry J. Sabato, editors. The Blue Wave: The 2018 Midterms and What They Mean for the 2020 Election. Rowman and Littlefield, 2019. 

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Kondik, Kyle, Larry J. Sabato, and Geoffrey Skelley, editors. The Surge: 2014's Big GOP Win and What It Means for the Next Presidential Election. Rowman and Littlefield, 2015. 

---. Trumped: The 2016 Election that Broke all the Rules. Rowman and Littlefield, 2017. 

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Mahtesian, Charlie. "The GOP’s Suburban Nightmare." Politico, 22 Jun. 2017, www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/22/handel-republicans-suburban-nightmare-215289/. Accessed 20 Mar. 2021. 

Mutnick, Ally. "Trump's suburban crash drags House GOP down with him." Politico, 2 Nov. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/11/02/trump-suburban-house-gop-down-433898. Accessed 20 Mar. 2021. 

"Norman claims SC's 5th District seat in special election." Carolinas Credit Union League, 21 Jun. 2017, www.carolinasleague.org/news/351221/Norman-claims-SCs-5th-District-seat-in-special-election.htm. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021. 

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Olsen, Henry. "After the Wave." National Affairs, no. 46, Winter 2021, www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/after-the-wave. Accessed 20 Mar. 2021. 

Perry, Tony. "Key Race Is Seen as a Test of GOP’s Vulnerability." Los Angeles Times, 30 May 2006, www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2006-may-30-me-fifty30-story.html. Accessed 20 Mar. 2021. 

Rakich, Nathaniel. "The Pennsylvania 18th Result Tells Us What Everything Has Been Telling Us For A While." FiveThirtyEight, 14 Mar. 2018, fivethirtyeight.com/features/pennsylvania-18-district-lamb-results/. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021. 

Riley, Charles. "Pennsylvania Democrat Denies Supporting Health Care Reform." CNN, 17 Apr. 2010, politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/17/pennsylvania-democrat-denies-supporting-health-care-reform/. Accessed 20 Mar. 2021. 

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Schaller, Tom. "What PA-12 Means for PA-Sen, Pelosi’s Majority — And, oh, PA-12." FiveThirtyEight, 18 May. 2010, fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pa-12-means-for-pa-sen-pelosis/. Accessed 20 Mar. 2021. 

Skelley, Geoffrey. "The Suburbs — All Kinds Of Suburbs — Delivered The House To Democrats." FiveThirtyEight, 8 Nov. 2018, fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-suburbs-all-kinds-of-suburbs-delivered-the-house-to-democrats/. Accessed 21 Mar. 2021. 

"Washington Whispers." U.S. News and World Report, 28 May 2006, www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/whispers/articles/060605/5whisplead.htm. Internet Archive Wayback Machine, 12 Aug. 2007, web.archive.org/web/20070812031557/https://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/whispers/articles/060605/5whisplead.htm. Accessed 20 Mar. 2021. 

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Wise, Alana. "Louisiana To Hold 2 Special Elections Saturday To Fill Congressional Seats." National Public Radio, www.npr.org/2021/03/20/978015222/louisiana-to-hold-2-special-elections-saturday-to-fill-congressional-seats. Accessed 20 Mar. 2021. 

Zanona, Melanie. "GOP Rep. Ron Wright dies after Covid diagnosis." Politico, 8 Feb. 2021, www.politico.com/news/2021/02/08/gop-rep-ron-wright-dies-after-covid-battle-467238. Accessed 20 Mar. 2021. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record