The 2020 House Primaries: Current Situation and Possible Futures

Author's Notes: The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record will take a short hiatus from the Asian-American poverty project to cover a discussion topic related to an upcoming and important political event, the New York House primaries, which will occur this coming Tuesday, June 23rd. Part 3 of the Asian-American poverty report will be published this coming Wednesday, June 24th. 

Between Wednesday night's post and now, I made a significant change to this blog. Last week, I activated new pages on the page bar that list all articles by topics (social policy, politics, etc.). Once I publish articles on economic and budget policy, I will add those respective pages to the navigation bar. 

The 2020 House Primaries: Current Situation and Possible Futures

Introduction: In recent years, much political talk has been centered around primary elections, particularly those taking place in the House. Several recent high-profile primary takedowns in recent cycles have led to the coining of the political jargon "primaried," which refers to primary defeats of incumbents caused by political factors, usually ideological differences between the incumbent and successful challenger (Cook 2015, 42). This dynamic became heavily discussed in 2018, with the primary victories by (now Representatives) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14) and Ayanna Pressley (D, MA-7), who defeated longtime Democratic incumbents in New York City and Boston, respectively. Compared to the incumbents, both were young and progressive, running on a message of generational and ideological change (Cook 2019, 70, 74). This mirrors 2014, where (then) House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R, VA-7) lost a primary election to Dave Brat, which was interpreted by many as an ideologically-influenced take-down (Cook 2015, 49). 

Despite the hype around primary elections, it has been noted that while most primary challenges to incumbents do not succeed, some come close every election cycle and are often closely-watched (Kondik 2019, "House 2020"). Last year, Kyle Kondik from Sabato's Crystal Ball explored potential primary challenges and defeats in the 2020 House election cycle, noting that incumbent Democrats would likely face a plethora of primary challengers in 2020, most from the progressive wing of the party (Kondik 2019, "House 2020"). By contrast, Kondik predicted that among Republicans, only Representatives Justin Amash (then R, MI-3), Steve King (R, IA-4), Chris Collins (R, NY-27), and Duncan Hunter (R, CA-50) were likely to face serious primary challenges. Other than Amash, whose then-primary challenge possibility was a result of his support for President Trump's impeachment, the others' vulnerability was attributed to high-profile scandals (Kondik 2019, "2020 House"). Since that article was published, Amash switched to become a Libertarian, King lost his primary (detailed below), and both Collins and Hunter resigned due to their respective scandals resulting in incarceration. 

2020's Primary Losses (as of as of 6/21/2020):

• Rep. Dan Lipinski (D, IL-3) (lost to Marie Newman, 44% to 47%): 2020 was not the first time the centrist, conservative-leaning Democrat Lipinski had faced a serious primary challenge. In 2018, Lipinski came close to losing against Marie Newman (who won in 2020). In comparison to her 2018 primary challenge, Newman's 2020 campaign had the backing of both progressives and establishment liberals (Kondik 2019, "House 2020"), which may have contributed to the former's defeat. 
• Rep. Steve King (R, IA-4) (lost to Randy Feenstra, 36% to 45%): Before his primary loss, Republican Representative King was disliked by the Republican establishment as a result of past controversial racial comments (Kondik 2019, "House 2020"). In the 2018 general election, as these and other controversies emerged, King came close to losing to Democrat J.D. Scholten in the heavily-Republican Northwest Iowa district (Sprunt). Two years later, King went down to Randy Feenstra in a heavily-watched primary race (Sprunt). 
• Rep. Denver Riggleman (R, VA-5) (lost to Bob Good, 42% to 58%): During the 2020 election cycle, it emerged that Representative Riggleman had officiated a homosexual wedding. Pundits predicted that it the potential to hurt him in the heavily rural Virginia district anchored in Charlottesville. The nomination process was controversial, as the state Republican party hosted a "drive-by" convention rather than a primary, which Riggleman has accused of giving an unfair advantage to primary winner Good (Mutnick). 

2020's Close Primary Losses (as of 6/21/2020)

• Rep. Bill Foster (D, IL-11) (won 58% to 42%): Representing a portion of suburban Chicagoland, Representative Foster faced a primary challenge that came relatively close ("Illinois Primary," 2020). This result is very notable because Foster's 2018 renomination faced no opposition ("Illinois Election Results 2018"). 
• Rep. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) (won 52% to 48%): Representative Cuellar's primary battle was closely-watched, as it featured young Hispanic progressive Jessica Cisneros (backed by Ocasio-Cortez, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and other progressive surrogates) hoping to repeat Ocasio-Cortez's 2018 success in Representative Cueller's majority-minority South Texas district. In the end, while the 26-year old Cisneros came close, Blue Dog Cuellar survived (Brufke). 
• Rep. Kay Granger (R, TX-12) (won 58% to 42%): A longtime Republican incumbent and the House Appropriations Committee ranking member, Representative Granger faced a significant challenge from local councilmember and Club for Growth-backed Chris Putnam. In the end, Granger was able to beat back Putnam and secure another term (Bowman). 
• Rep. David Scott (D, GA-13) (won 51% to 27% *Not finalized*): Spanning some of Atlanta's western and southern suburbs, Representative Scott is a Blue Dog Democrat has netted 52% of the primary vote, thus avoiding a runoff ("Georgia Primary"). Georgia requires that to be nominated, a primary candidate must receive 50% either through the first primary, or in a runoff between the top two candidates ("Primary Elections"). Previously, Kondik had predicted the Scott was likely to face such a challenge due to his ideological moderation (Kondik, "House 2020"). 

Possible Future 2020 House Primary Defeats and Significant Challenges: As of the time of this writing (6/21/2020), over half of the states have yet to hold their House primaries ("2020 State Primary"). Among the remaining high-profile primary challenges to incumbents running in upcoming primaries include:

• New York City area: This coming Tuesday, June 23rd, New York state will hold its House primaries (the "important event" mentioned above), which could be among the most significant in the nation and for the Democrats. After Ocasio-Cortez's 2018 victory, a surge of NYC progressive challengers began to assertively target incumbent Big Apple Democrats in the 2020 cycle (Kondik 2019, "House 2020"). The most notable challenge is that of school principal Jamaal Bowman, who is backed by a plethora of progressive icons and institutions, and is challenging longtime Representative Eliot Engel (D, NY-16) in The Bronx and Westchester County. A poll released last week showed The New York Times-endorsed Bowman ahead, 41% to 31%, with significant consolidation of the non-white vote (Wilson). Meanwhile, Representative Yvette Clarke (D, NY-9) won her primary by 6% in 2018 (Cook 2019, 73), and faces several progressive challengers this time, making her 2020 primary a must-watch (Durkin). Like Representative Clarke, Representative Carolyn Maloney (D, NY-12) also faces several progressive challengers (Durkin), and barely won 60% in 2018 (Kondik 2019, "House 2020").
• Massachusetts: The Bay State should also be watched for close primaries or defeated incumbents, as several incumbent Democrats face potentially difficult primaries, including Ways and Means Chair Richard Neal (D, MA-1) (Kondik, "House 2020"), and Blue Dog Democrat Stephen Lynch (D, MA-9) ("Kondik, "House 2020"). Representative Neal faces the Mayor of Holyoke, Alex Morse, who first took public office at the age of 21 in 2011 (Cote). Like Lipinski, Lynch is very conservative for a Democrat, being one of three remaining (Lipinski, and Representative Collin Peterson (D, MN-7) being the others) House Democrats who did not vote for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (Kondik 2019, "The House: Where...," 108). 
• Rep. Lacy Clay (D, MO-1): Outside the Northeast, another potential incumbent primary defeat could be brewing in St. Louis (pun intended), where Representative Clay, the son of the Congressional Black Caucus's (CBC) founder (Murphy), is being rematched by Cori Bush (Otterbein and Thompson). In 2018, despite putting up an assertive progressive-backed challenge, Bush failed to deny Clay re-nomination, 37% to 57% (Murphy). This time around, Bush has higher name recognition, resources, and support from national progressives (Otterbein and Thompson). 
• Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D, MI-13): The final significant Democratic primary battle reverses the trend of progressives challenging establishment liberals, as it involves Detroit City Councilmember Brenda Jones (D) rematching progressive Representative Tlaib (Lessenberry). In 2018, Jones won a special election primary to fill the remaining 114th Congressional term of ex-representative John Conyers (D, MI-13), while Tlaib won the general election primary (no Republican ran in either) (Lessenberry). Representative Tlaib's first term has been controversial because of her views on Israel, Palestine, and the ongoing conflict between both (Caroline and Watkins). On the other hand, a recent report has alleged that during her time on the Detroit City Council, Jones had illegally accepted campaign contributions in amounts over what Michigan state laws allow (Cunningham-Cook). Polling in mid-2019 showed Tlaib at just over 50% against Jones, but also with positive job ratings and name recognition, whereas Jones lacked the latter (Sarpolus, 1-2). 
• Rep. Steve Watkins (R, KS-2): The only remaining Republican incumbent in an upcoming House primary who could face a close re-nomination or primary defeat is Representative Steve Watkins (R, KS-2). The freshman Watkins has been controversial since winning the 2018 KS-2 Republican nomination due to concerns over whether he overstated his background (Koranda). Recently, former Kansas State Treasurer Jake LaTurner abandoned his bid for the Republican nomination of Kansas's open Senate seat to run against Watkins in the KS-2 primary (Koranda). Other than Watkins, I was not able to find any information suggesting that any other Republican incumbents are at risk of losing or facing difficult primary renominations. 

Postscript: Come this Tuesday, myself and other election nerds will be watching closely to see what happens in New York's House primaries, particularly whether the primary challenges mentioned below are successful against incumbents. Before primary season ends, I might do a similar piece for this year's Senate election cycle, although such a post will be a lot shorter since there is not much primary action in the Senate against incumbents this cycle. 

Sources:

"2020 State Primary Election Dates." National Council of State Legislatures, 19 May 2020, https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/2020-state-primary-election-dates.aspx#Chronological. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

Bowman, Bridget. "Texas Rep. Kay Granger wins primary after tea party-style attack." Roll Call, 3 Mar. 2020, www.rollcall.com/2020/03/03/texas-rep-kay-granger-wins-primary-after-tea-party-style-       attack/. Accessed 15 Jun. 2020. 

Brufke, Juliegrace. "Henry Cuellar fends off Democratic challenger in Texas House primary." The Hill, 4 Mar. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485776-henry-cuellar-fends-off-democratic-challenger-in-texas-house-primary. Accessed 16 Jun. 2020. 

Cook, Rhodes. "The Primaries of 2014: More Than Meets the Eye." The Surge, edited by Kyle Kondik, Larry Sabato, and Geoffrey Skelley, Rowman and Littlefield, 2015, pp. 37-52. 

Cote, Jackson. "Holyoke Mayor Alex Morser raises around $123,000 in 4th quarter of Congressional race against Rep. Richard Neal." MassLive, 1 Feb. 2020, www.masslive.com/springfield/2020/02/holyoke-mayor-alex-morse-raises-around-123000-in-4th-quarter-of-congressional-race-against-rep-richard-neal.html. Accessed 21 Jun. 2020. 

Cunningham-Cook, Matthew. "Tlaib Challenger Took Illegal Campaign Cash From Donors Doing Business With The City Of Detroit." The Intercept, 21 Apr. 2020, theintercept.com/2020/04/21/brenda-jones-detroit-city-council-tlaib/. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

---. "The Primaries of 2018: Democrats Shine in the Era of Trump." The Blue Wave, edited by Kyle Kondik and Larry Sabato, Rowman and Littlefield, 2019, pp. 60-79. 

Durkin, Emily. "'AOC Effect put to the test in heated New York primaries." Politico, 5 Jun. 2020, www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/06/05/new-york-primary-battles-struggle-to-draw-attention-in-a-shaken-city-1290875. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

"Georgia Primary Election Results 2020." National Public Radio, updated 16 Jun. 2020, apps.npr.org/elections20-primaries/states/GA.html. Accessed 18 Jun. 2020. 

"Illinois Election Results 2018: Live primary map by county." Politico, updated 21 Mar. 2020, www.politico.com/election-results/2018/illinois/primary/. Accessed 18 Jun. 2020. 

"Illinois Primary Election Results 2020." National Public Radio, updated 24 Mar. 2020, apps.npr.org/elections20-primaries/states/IL.html. Accessed 18 Jun. 2020. 

Kelly, Caroline, and Eli Watkins. "Rashida Tlaib stands by Israel and Holocaust comments amid criticism." CNN, 13 May 2019, www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/politics/rashida-tlaib-holocaust-comments/index.html. Accessed 19 Jun. 2020. 

Kondik, Kyle. "House 2020: Incumbents Hardly Ever Lose Primaries." Sabato's Crystal Ball, 30 May 2019. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2020-incumbents-hardly-ever-lose-primaries/. Accessed 15 June 2020. 

---. "The House: Where the Blue Wave Hit the Hardest." The Blue Wave, edited by Kyle Kondik and Larry Sabato, Rowman and Littlefield, 2019, pp. 98-114.

Kondik, Kyle, and Larry Sabato, editors. The Blue Wave. Rowman and Littlefield, 2019. 

Koranda, Steve. "Kansas Treasurer LaTurner Trades Senate Race For 2020 Primary With U.S. Rep. Watkins." KMUW Wichita 89.1, 4 Sep. 2019,  www.kmuw.org/post/kansas-treasurer-laturner-trades-senate-race-2020-gop-primary-us-rep-watkins. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

Lessenberry, Jack. "Lessenberry: Odds look favorable for Rashida Tlaib." The Toledo Blade, 12 May, 2020, www.toledoblade.com/opinion/columnists/2020/05/12/lessenberry-odds-look-favorable-for-rashida-tlaib/stories/20200512014. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

Murphy, Doyle. "Cori Bush's National Buzz Not Enough to Beat Lacy Clay." Riverfront Times, 7 Aug. 2018, www.riverfronttimes.com/newsblog/2018/08/07/cori-bushs-national-buzz-not-enough-to-beat-lacy-clay. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

Mutnick, Ally. "Rep. Denver Riggleman outsted in Virginia GOP convention." Politico, 14 June 2020. www.politico.com/news/2020/06/14/rep-denver-riggleman-ousted-in-virginia-gop-convention-316589?fbclid=IwAR0zCB6827c1t7cnv-hdYAr8iLli_c6xO57zpPIOpWDeCFcamuk6lqWeGdk. Accessed 15 Jun. 2020. 

Otterbein, Holly, and Alex Thompson. "The 'new' AOC divides the left." Politico, 30 Mar. 2020, www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/29/the-new-aoc-divides-the-left-1269548. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

"Primary Runoffs." National Conference of State Legislatures, 8 May 2017, www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/primary-runoffs.aspx. Accessed 18 Jun. 2020. 

Sarpolus, Ed. "Michigan Congressional District 13 Democrat Primary Poll." Target Insyght, July 2019, mirsnews.com/images/MI_CD13_DEM_PRIMARY_AUG_2020_TARGET_INSYGHT_07_26_2019.pdf. Accessed 16 Jun. 2020. 

Sprunt, Barbara. "Iowa Rep. Steve King, Known for Racist Comments, Loses Reelection Bid." National Public Radio, 3 Jun. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/06/03/865823546/iowa-rep-steve-king-ousted-in-gop-primary-ap-projects. Accessed 16 Jun. 2020. 

Wilson, Reid. "Engel trails primary challenger by 10 points: poll." The Hill, 17 Jun. 2020, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/503128-engel-trails-primary-challenger-by-10-points-poll. Accessed 17 Jun. 2020. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Host and Author, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record