Looking to Class 3: How many 2022 Senate Retirements are Possible?

Author's Notes: While I am not a fan of (American) football, there will not be a post this coming Sunday, February 7th due to Super Bowl Sunday. Stay safe and healthy this coming weekend, regardless if you will be following the big game or not! 

Looking to Class 3: How many 2022 Senate Retirements are Possible?

Introduction: Last week, two-term Republican Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) announced his intention to retire in 2022, opening up a Senate seat in the once-battleground state that has been trending red in the Trump era. At the same time, his retirement set off extensive discussion of his retirement's implications for the Senate, especially whether it could lead to further retirements on both sides. This is especially pertinent considering that several other high-profile Senators up in 2022 are considering retirements or have already been speculated as possible retirements. Today's post will discuss which Senators have already announced retirements and potential future retirements that could occur in the 2022 Senate cycle. 

Basic Rundown on 2022: 

Visual 1: Senators Up in 2022 (as of 2/4/2021)

Base Image: Fluffy89502. "File:2022 US Senate map.svg." Wikimedia Commons, 19 May 2019, last modified 27 Jan. 2021, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2022_US_Senate_map.svg. Accessed 2 Feb. 2021. 

In 2022, the 34 Class 3 Senators will be up for re-election, all of whom (except Georgia) were last up in 2016. That year, Democrats made a net gain of 2 seats, while a third seat (Georgia) flipped during the 2020-21 Special Election after incumbent Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) resigned and appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) losing to now-Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) in a special election. In Class 3, Democrats currently hold 14 seats and Republicans hold the other 20. Assuming no other changes take place between now and the 2022 elections, Democrats (and two Independents who caucus with them) hold 50 seats, while Republicans hold 50 seats, and the Vice-Presidency tie-breaker is Democrat Kamala Harris (Coleman). 

Retiring Senators (Party-State) (Number of terms):

• Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) (3): The previous Senate Intelligence Committee chair decided back in 2016 that he would not run in 2022 regardless of 2016's outcome (Campbell). Just as COVID-19-related lockdowns and measures began to be implemented last year, Sen. Burr was alleged (along with several other Senators) to have committed insider trading before the economy began to decline (Mangan). 
• Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) (2): After serving for two terms in the Senate, the relatively moderate Portman unexpectedly decided to retire rather than seek a third term (Barrett et al.). During his Senate tenure up to this point, Portman has been notable as being one of the few Republican Senators who has openly supported homosexual marriage (Murphy). 
• Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) (2): After initially winning a narrow victory in 2010, Senator Toomey pulled off an upset in 2016 (McDaniel and Tamari), likely assisted by extensive ticket-splitting in suburban Philadelphia and Trump's unexpected energy in the state (Olson). In October, the longtime Keystone State political figure announced his retirement, citing then-President Trump's COVID infection and his desire to spend time at home (Grisales). His retirement increases the stakes of the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race and its primaries, as both parties have a number of high-profile figures that have or are likely to enter the race (Prose). 

Potential Retirements (Party-State) (Number of terms): Please note that this blog will not speculate on potential retirements unless verifiable sources can be found explaining potential retirements and reasonings. In addition, note that unexpected retirements can always occur in any cycle, and this one is no exception. On the other hand, some Senators subject to significant discussion of potentially retiring end up defying such discussion and decide to try for another term. 

• Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) (6): Prior to 2021, Senator Grassley served as the Senate Pro Tempore and the Judiciary Committee Chair, the latter making him a critical Senator during Trump's presidency for his role in advancing Trump's SCOTUS nominees (Pfannenstiel, "Supreme Court"). Come next year, Grassley will be 88 years old, and has stated that he will make a decision within the next several weeks (Pfannenstiel, "Iowa Senator"). 
• Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) (2): Even before winning his second term in an upset, Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson had decided to not run in 2022 (Carney). In 2020, he backpedaled on this decision, but also stated that he had not decided whether he would run or retire. If he runs, Johnson will be under pressure as Wisconsin Senate race will likely be one of the most competitive of the cycle due to the state's purple nature. Furthermore, the national and state Democratic parties have already set their sights on the Senator after Johnson's 2016 upset victory that netted him another term (Korecki). Politico reported last week that Republican Senate Congressional Committee (RSCC) Chair Rick Scott (R-FL) has been trying to convince Johnson to run again as a means to keep the seat red (Arkin and Everett). 
• Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) (8): Out of the Class 3 Senators, longtime Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) was the only Democrat with significant public discussion about a potential retirement. The 80-year-old Senator and new Senate Pro Tempore has not decided either way whether he will run for a ninth term, but expects to by the end of this year (Ledbetter). 
• Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) (7): The once-Democratic-turned Republican Senator from Alabama will soon be part of a small group that voted in all three impeachment trials of the past thirty years (Bill Clinton and both of Donald Trump's), along with Grassley and Leahy (Sharp). Senator Shelby has been speculated to be considering retirement going into 2022, although he has not made a decision, something he recently stated would be decided after the current impeachment trial (Arkin and Everett). 

Wild Card: Will Feinstein (D-CA) Resign Early? Ever since winning her fifth Senate term in 2018, questions and discussion have circulated whether Senator Dianne Feinstein )D-CA) will resign early, as critics have questioned her ability to carry out her duties amidst concerns about her physical and mental health. Furthermore, the state's progressive base has argued that Feinstein is too moderate and out-of-touch with the increasingly-liberal state. The Senator and her staff have denied these allegations, noting her intense legislative and policy activity, as well as her general perseverance (Irby). Perhaps as a way to show this, Feinstein filed paperwork several weeks ago to run in 2024 and denied that she would retire or resign early despite ongoing calls to do so (Tom). 

Conclusion and Implications: While Joe Biden has only been president for 2 weeks and the 2022 elections may still be a (light-)year and a half away, those Senators who are scheduled to be up for re-election have a critical decision to make soon, whether to retire or run again. This decision is especially pertinent for those who are considering retirement, as all states have filing deadlines and the party institutions have to seek out potential replacement candidates to run. While three Republican Senators have already announced that they will not seek another term next year, that number has the potential to grow as several others on both sides have been considering retirement. In the end, the number of such retirements reflect the level and frequency of turnover on Capitol Hill, thus allowing new and younger aspiring Senators to take the helm in the upper chamber. 

Works Cited: 

Arkin, James, and Burgess Everett. "Senate GOP braces for more retirements after Portman stunner." Politico, 27 Jan. 2021, www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/senate-gop-retirements-2022-462898. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Barrett, Ted, Manu Raju, and Alex Rogers. "Retirements shake up 2022 map as Republican senators eye exits." CNN, 26 Jan. 2021, www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/retirements-republicans-2022/index.html. Accessed 2 Feb. 2021. 

Campbell, Colin. "US Sen. Richard Burr says 2016 will be his last run for elected office." Charlotte Observer, 20 Jul. 2016, www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article90756562.html. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Carney, Jordain. "Ron Johnson pledges to retire after serving one more Senate term." The Hill, 10 Oct. 2016, thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/300251-ron-johnson-will-retire-after-second-term. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Coleman, J Miles. "2022 Senate Races: Initial Ratings." Sabato's Crystal Ball, centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2022-senate-races-initial-ratings/. Accessed 4 Feb. 2021. 

Elias, Thomas D. "What does Dianne Feinstein’s political future look like?" Orange County Register, 29 Jan. 2021, www.ocregister.com/2021/01/29/what-does-dianne-feinsteins-political-future-look-like/. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Grisales, Claudia. "Republican Sen. Pat Toomey To Retire, Opening Up 2022 Race In Pennsylvania." National Public Radio, 5 Oct. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/10/05/920310062/republican-senator-pat-toomey-to-retire-opening-2022-race-in-pennsylvania. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Irby, Kate. "Still serving at 87, Dianne Feinstein brushes off calls to resign over memory issues." Sacramento Bee, 22 Jan. 2021, www.sacbee.com/news/california/article247947260.html. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Korecki, Natasha. "Democrats already angling to take out Ron Johnson in 2022." Politico 26 Oct. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/10/26/wisconsin-democrats-ron-johnson-2022-432411. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Ledbetter, Stewart. "Leahy responds to poll testing potential 2022 Senate race with Phil Scott." NBC5, 23 Sept. 2020, www.mynbc5.com/article/leahy-responds-to-poll-testing-potential-2022-senate-race-with-phil-scott/34133073. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Mangan, Dan. "DOJ still investigating coronavirus stock sales by Sen. Burr, but drops probes of Loeffler, Inhofe, Feinstein." CNBC, 26 May 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/05/26/coronavirus-doj-investigates-burr-stock-sales-drops-loeffler-feinstein-probes.html. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

McDaniel, Justine, and Jonathan Tamari. "Toomey tops McGinty, wins re-election to Senate." The Philadelphia Inquirer, 8 Nov. 2016, www.inquirer.com/philly/news/politics/20161109_Pa__Senate_head_geos_her_enahde.html. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Murphy, Patricia. "Gay Marriage Stand Won’t Cost Ohio GOP Senator His Seat." Roll Call, 29 Aug. 2016, www.rollcall.com/2016/08/29/gay-marriage-stand-wont-cost-ohio-gop-senator-his-seat/. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley says his re-election decision is 'several weeks off'." Des Moines Register, 3 Feb. 2021, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/03/chuck-grassley-re-election-decision-several-weeks-away-senate-2022/4379810001/. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

---. "Sen. Chuck Grassley won't oppose holding Supreme Court nomination hearings this year." Des Moines Register, 21 Sept. 2020, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/09/21/chuck-grassley-indicates-he-wont-oppose-ruth-bader-ginsburg-replacement-hearings-this-year/5853963002/. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Prose, J.D. "Toomey's Senate seat: Crowded field on both sides as contenders jockey to run in 2022." Beaver County Times, 1 Dec. 2020, www.timesonline.com/story/news/2020/12/01/toomeys-retirement-opens-up-floodgates-2022-u-s-senate-race-pennsylvania/3779906001/. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Rakich, Nathaniel, and Geoffrey Skelley. "What All Those GOP Retirements Mean For The 2022 Senate Map." FiveThirtyEight, 25 Jan. 2021, fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-all-those-gop-retirements-mean-for-the-2022-senate-map/. Accessed 2 Feb. 2021. 

Sharp, John. "Alabama’s Richard Shelby among few senators to have participated in three impeachments." AlabamaLive, 3 Feb. 2021, www.al.com/politics/2021/02/alabamas-richard-shelby-among-few-senators-to-have-participated-in-three-impeachments.html. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

Tom, Matthew. "Sen. Feinstein, 87, files initial paperwork to run for re-election in 2024." SFGate, 12 Jan. 2021, www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Sen-Feinstein-87-files-paperwork-to-run-for-15866190.php. Accessed 3 Feb. 2021. 

     Nathan Parmeter

     Author and Host, The Parmeter Politics and Policy Record